ORH_wxman Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 ENSO continues to cool during the time we were focused on Irene. It appears we have cooled off 3.4 to the lowest levels since March in the weeklies. Latest CFS is now going for a strong Nina, but as usual, its likely being a bit too bullish. A moderate Nina is certainly looking more likely than before as we head closer though at the moment, I still think I'd favor a weak Nina, but its becoming more of a coin flip now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I'm going to wait until it's almost 10/1 before issuing....but I've gone 180. The upcoming winter may make snow haters fondly remember 2010-11. We could be entering record totals in many. Areas about 50-100 further north vs last year. , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 ENSO continues to cool during the time we were focused on Irene. It appears we have cooled off 3.4 to the lowest levels since March in the weeklies. Latest CFS is now going for a strong Nina, but as usual, its likely being a bit too bullish. A moderate Nina is certainly looking more likely than before as we head closer though at the moment, I still think I'd favor a weak Nina, but its becoming more of a coin flip now. yeah, usually too cold or too warm CFS 1st 10 days of Sept, 2010 forecast verification: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml today, its a hair warmer than -1.5; weak/mod average seems in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 yeah, usually too cold or too warm CFS 1st 10 days of Sept, 2010 forecast verification: http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml today, its a hair warmer than -1.5; weak/mod average seems in the cards I actually wasn't using the pdf corrected numbers...looking at those, they look pretty close actually. The CPC numbers you gave are trimonthly average and the cfs graph looks like weekly numbers. I forget what last fall's weeklies bottomed out at but I think it was a bit shy of -2C...maybe -1.8 or something. So given that, yeah, I think a coin flip between weak and moderate is what I would go right now. That would be near -1.0C on the trimonthlies. I think the odds of a negative-neutral are falling rapidly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Week of first flakes in Boston? I'm betting 2nd week of November? Hope you guys are right and the ski areas get the gold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I'm going to wait until it's almost 10/1 before issuing....but I've gone 180. The upcoming winter may make snow haters fondly remember 2010-11. We could be entering record totals in many. Areas about 50-100 further north vs last year. , Fella's onboard! That's everyone so far. La la la lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I'm going to wait until it's almost 10/1 before issuing....but I've gone 180. The upcoming winter may make snow haters fondly remember 2010-11. We could be entering record totals in many. Areas about 50-100 further north vs last year. , 5 weeks until first frost, 6 weeks until freeze, 8 weeks until first flakes, then heavy heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 ENSO continues to cool during the time we were focused on Irene. It appears we have cooled off 3.4 to the lowest levels since March in the weeklies. Latest CFS is now going for a strong Nina, but as usual, its likely being a bit too bullish. A moderate Nina is certainly looking more likely than before as we head closer though at the moment, I still think I'd favor a weak Nina, but its becoming more of a coin flip now. How's the ECMWF do with ENSO forecasts Will? I was looking at it's projection for Region 3 and it seemed to agree with your thinking. Weak to maybe a moderate Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 We may have to have a dinner bet. Good lord I'm going to get too fat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 We may have to have a dinner bet. Good lord I'm going to get too fat! I was onboard for another good winter long before you waffled from your 1991 stance, but I'll bet against this trumping last season. If you would like to bet on that, then I'm all ears.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Hopefully we get some blocking as I think this has a pretty decent chance of being moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 Weeklies: Nino 3: -0.4C (down 0.2) Nino 3.4: -0.5C (no change) Nino 4: -0.1C (no change) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Weeklies: Nino 3: -0.4C (down 0.2) Nino 3.4: -0.5C (no change) Nino 4: -0.1C (no change) I'd love for it to stay weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 I'd love for it to stay weak. That is probably optimal for here...weak or even borderline weak/neutral. But I think the chances of that are diminishing with each passing day. I'm almost ready to favor moderate Nina over weak Nina at this point, but I will hold off on that for another couple weeks to see what this does. These things can be a bit fickle and trick us from time to time. Weak/mod Nina with -QBO analogs: 1956-1957 1967-1968 1970-1971 1974-1975 1983-1984 (though technically neutral...but barely missed weak Nina) 2000-2001 2005-2006 (same as '83-'84) 2007-2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 That is probably optimal for here...weak or even borderline weak/neutral. But I think the chances of that are diminishing with each passing day. I'm almost ready to favor moderate Nina over weak Nina at this point, but I will hold off on that for another couple weeks to see what this does. These things can be a bit fickle and trick us from time to time. Weak/mod Nina with -QBO analogs: 1956-1957 1967-1968 1970-1971 1974-1975 1983-1984 (though technically neutral...but barely missed weak Nina) 2000-2001 2005-2006 (same as '83-'84) 2007-2008 I wish I lived here to see what those years presented (actually, was 2007-2008 a crazy year snow-wise?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 That is probably optimal for here...weak or even borderline weak/neutral. But I think the chances of that are diminishing with each passing day. I'm almost ready to favor moderate Nina over weak Nina at this point, but I will hold off on that for another couple weeks to see what this does. These things can be a bit fickle and trick us from time to time. Weak/mod Nina with -QBO analogs: 1956-1957 1967-1968 1970-1971 1974-1975 1983-1984 (though technically neutral...but barely missed weak Nina) 2000-2001 2005-2006 (same as '83-'84) 2007-2008 Although I didn't think it would be moderate a couple of months ago, it seems we are heading in that direction. I think the chances seem pretty good for a low end moderate, but it only takes a couple of westerly wind bursts to halt the cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 I wish I lived here to see what those years presented (actually, was 2007-2008 a crazy year snow-wise?). '07-'08 had an insane snowfall gradient that year from south to north. '70-'71 was actually very similar. Both were very solid moderate Ninas (almost low end strong) and I'm not sure we'll reach the strength of those events this year. I'd favor weaker right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 That is probably optimal for here...weak or even borderline weak/neutral. But I think the chances of that are diminishing with each passing day. I'm almost ready to favor moderate Nina over weak Nina at this point, but I will hold off on that for another couple weeks to see what this does. These things can be a bit fickle and trick us from time to time. Weak/mod Nina with -QBO analogs: 1956-1957 1967-1968 1970-1971 1974-1975 1983-1984 (though technically neutral...but barely missed weak Nina) 2000-2001 2005-2006 (same as '83-'84) 2007-2008 Those 2 winters 1970-1971 and 2007-2008 remeber both very well along with 1967-1968, Certainly worked out up here as the 70-71 and 07-08 are the 2 snowiest winters at my locale.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Hey Will if we do end up moderate, how rare is that to have a borderline strong Nina followed by a moderate Nina? I know it's still questionable, but if it were to happen, I can't think of many instances when it occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 '07-'08 had an insane snowfall gradient that year from south to north. '70-'71 was actually very similar. Both were very solid moderate Ninas (almost low end strong) and I'm not sure we'll reach the strength of those events this year. I'd favor weaker right now. Gotcha. That was when we moved down from Maine, so I guess I was in the midst of the heavier snows. But, I recall that after we moved down here (we arrived March 1) there was a very long-lasting snow-pack into the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 Hey Will if we do end up moderate, how rare is that to have a borderline strong Nina followed by a moderate Nina? I know it's still questionable, but if it were to happen, I can't think of many instances when it occurred. 1998-1999 was a boderline strong (just shy) Nina followed by an actual strong Nina in 1999-2000. 1971-1972 topped out at -1.0 so a borderline moderate Nina after the borderline strong Nina in 1970-1971. 1955-1956 was a strong Nina that followed a moderate Nina in 1954-1955....but its definitely tough to get historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 1998-1999 was a boderline strong (just shy) Nina followed by an actual strong Nina in 1999-2000. 1971-1972 topped out at -1.0 so a borderline moderate Nina after the borderline strong Nina in 1970-1971. 1955-1956 was a strong Nina that followed a moderate Nina in 1954-1955....but its definitely tough to get historically. That's what I was thinking of, but totally forgot about those disasters in the late 90s. How can I forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 That's what I was thinking of, but totally forgot about those disasters in the late 90s. How can I forget. I wish I could forget them. Though Phil was making naked snow angels in '98-'99. It wasn't that bad for the south shore either. '99-'00 was deplorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I wish I could forget them. Though Phil was making naked snow angels in '98-'99. It wasn't that bad for the south shore either. '99-'00 was deplorable. They both sucked pretty badly for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 That is probably optimal for here...weak or even borderline weak/neutral. But I think the chances of that are diminishing with each passing day. I'm almost ready to favor moderate Nina over weak Nina at this point, but I will hold off on that for another couple weeks to see what this does. These things can be a bit fickle and trick us from time to time. Weak/mod Nina with -QBO analogs: 1956-1957 1967-1968 1970-1971 1974-1975 1983-1984 (though technically neutral...but barely missed weak Nina) 2000-2001 2005-2006 (same as '83-'84) 2007-2008 shame on you Will! you forgot 95/96 http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data EDIT: or did you mean only ENSO bordering on weak and mod? anyway, 95/96 was a solid weak at -.7 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 shame on you Will! you forgot 95/96 http://www.esrl.noaa...lation/qbo.data I didn't include it because it was nearly a neutral qbo and didn't really get into solid negative territory until the winter was nearly over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I didn't include it because it was nearly a neutral qbo and didn't really get into solid negative territory until the winter was nearly over. OK, but my hope, as I mentioned in the thread I linked earlier, is that a QBO dropping through the winter is important, so that's why 95/96 came to mind I can't help but think NE has another great/record year in spots regardless we, of course, are on the edge (sometimes of the heavy snow, more often on the roof ready to jump) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I didn't include it because it was nearly a neutral qbo and didn't really get into solid negative territory until the winter was nearly over. one other thing, there were a number of -1.0 ENSO 3.4 weekly readings in the fall and winter of 95/96, so it may be closer to this year than some models are indicating http://www.cpc.ncep....dices/wksst.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Will, are you still favoring a decent winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Weeklies: Nino 3: -0.4C (down 0.2) Nino 3.4: -0.5C (no change) Nino 4: -0.1C (no change) weak east based La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.