Winter 2011-2012

[nzucker]

Scott and I were just talking about '71-'72 on the phone, and here is the 500mb pattern that winter...you can see the classic Aleutian ridge getting far enough north in Bering Straight and Kamchatka to let all the arctic air into Canada....the SE ridge is a bit robust but not so much as to screw NE...it was a huge interior winter.

It was essentially a normal winter here with 34.5" recorded at the Dobbs Ferry co-op. There was a decent gradient between here and NYC as Central Park only had 22.9", which is a decent bit below its long-term average. December was mild but February was cold, and February had the biggest snowstorm of the year with 13.1" recorded in Southern Westchester between 2/17 and 2/20. This was clearly the type of winter in which New England does better, basically a more extreme version of 07-08 and similar to the preceding year, 70-71, except with the big February 1972 Nor'easter that allowed the coast to get in on a good snowfall. The winter began early here with 0.1" recorded on 11/10, and ended fairly late with 2" on 3/14 and 0.1" on 4/7. Not unusual for a weak Niña/negative neutral winter to have a good stretch later in the season as we saw with 59-60/66-67 and of course the March 1, 2009 storm.

I like 71-72 as an analog on the Pacific side (weak Niña after a moderate Niña during a -PDO, as well as a pronounced Aleutian ridge which we're bound to see this winter given the dropping ENSO and the warm SSTs near the Aleutians)....but I do think the cold anomalies might be displaced a bit further southeast in Winter 11-12 given the NAO state. It looks as if the NAO was fairly positive (especially the west-based part of the index) in 71-72 given the low height anomalies over Baffin Bay and Greenland, and I'd think the blocking would push that cold air further southeast as we saw in December 2010. I also think Canada might be a little warmer than what 71-72 had, although still below average as the Aleutian High may easily extend back into Kamchatka and the Bering Strait as in many Niñas, bringing the PV onto our side of the globe. It'd be hard to forecast a pattern as extreme as 71-72 however, especially considering that a -NAO often retrogrades westward and brings milder air towards Hudson Bay and the Canadian Archipelago.

[ORH_wxman]

It was essentially a normal winter here with 34.5" recorded at the Dobbs Ferry co-op. There was a decent gradient between here and NYC as Central Park only had 22.9", which is a decent bit below its long-term average. December was mild but February was cold, and February had the biggest snowstorm of the year with 13.1" recorded in Southern Westchester between 2/17 and 2/20. This was clearly the type of winter in which New England does better, basically a more extreme version of 07-08 and similar to the preceding year, 70-71, except with the big February 1972 Nor'easter that allowed the coast to get in on a good snowfall. The winter began early here with 0.1" recorded on 11/10, and ended fairly late with 2" on 3/14 and 0.1" on 4/7. Not unusual for a weak Niña/negative neutral winter to have a good stretch later in the season as we saw with 59-60/66-67 and of course the March 1, 2009 storm.

I like 71-72 as an analog on the Pacific side (weak Niña after a moderate Niña during a -PDO, as well as a pronounced Aleutian ridge which we're bound to see this winter given the dropping ENSO and the warm SSTs near the Aleutians)....but I do think the cold anomalies might be displaced a bit further southeast in Winter 11-12 given the NAO state. It looks as if the NAO was fairly positive (especially the west-based part of the index) in 71-72 given the low height anomalies over Baffin Bay and Greenland, and I'd think the blocking would push that cold air further southeast as we saw in December 2010. I also think Canada might be a little warmer than what 71-72 had, although still below average as the Aleutian High may easily extend back into Kamchatka and the Bering Strait as in many Niñas, bringing the PV onto our side of the globe. It'd be hard to forecast a pattern as extreme as 71-72 however, especially considering that a -NAO often retrogrades westward and brings milder air towards Hudson Bay and the Canadian Archipelago.

We were discussing this analog trying to figure out how the winter might look if we didn't get a huge -NAO...basically something more neutralish. That would have been a monster year for your new stomping ground....Ashburnham coop had 138.9" of snow that winter. We had around 100" here.

[nzucker]

We were discussing this analog trying to figure out how the winter might look if we didn't get a huge -NAO...basically something more neutralish. That would have been a monster year for your new stomping ground....Ashburnham coop had 138.9" of snow that winter. We had around 100" here.

The higher elevations of Rindge must have had close to 150", then, right? The most snow I've experienced in a single season is 82" in 95-96 in Westchester and 83" in 08-09 at Middlebury, though I missed the second half of that winter because I went to Chile in mid-February, although most of the storms were over by that point anyway as Central Vermont hardly recorded any snowfall in February and just a few inches in March. We were getting snow at a breakneck pace in VT during the weak Niña/-PDO/-NAO winter of 08-09 during December and January...I remember thinking the campus would have a good shot at 100" as we must have had around 60" by January 31st. Middlebury got 10-11" in both 12/19 and 12/21, then 6" from a clipper in early January, then 13" from the 1/28 SW flow event which also creamed my house in Dobbs Ferry....all of a sudden, however, the action shut off. February was virtually snowless, the campus got 4" on the fringes of the 3/2 Miller A, and that was that. I don't think we recorded any accumulating snows in the second half of March or April, one of the earliest ends to winter in memory. I wonder if Winter 11-12 might be similar in that we see a -NAO with lots of cold air early in the winter, but the blocking fades a bit like last year as the Niña strength is fully felt by the atmosphere.

I still think we see some west-based blocking this winter given the NAO index this summer, the tri-pole configuration in the North Atlantic (warmer SSTs in the sub-tropics, Newfoundland cold pool, warm waters south of Greenland), the low sea ice, and the fact that a -QBO with low solar activity favors a sudden stratospheric warming earlier in the winter. I wouldn't be surprised if we got a repeat of Winter 10-11 in some senses with December being extremely cold, a moderation mid-winter and then perhaps another favorable pattern in March as we had from 3/20-4/1 this past season.

[ORH_wxman]

The higher elevations of Rindge must have had close to 150", then, right? The most snow I've experienced in a single season is 82" in 95-96 in Westchester and 83" in 08-09 at Middlebury, though I missed the second half of that winter because I went to Chile in mid-February, although most of the storms were over by that point anyway as Central Vermont hardly recorded any snowfall in February and just a few inches in March. We were getting snow at a breakneck pace in VT during the weak Niña/-PDO/-NAO winter of 08-09 during December and January...I remember thinking the campus would have a good shot at 100" as we must have had around 60" by January 31st. Middlebury got 10-11" in both 12/19 and 12/21, then 6" from a clipper in early January, then 13" from the 1/28 SW flow event which also creamed my house in Dobbs Ferry....all of a sudden, however, the action shut off. February was virtually snowless, the campus got 4" on the fringes of the 3/2 Miller A, and that was that. I don't think we recorded any accumulating snows in the second half of March or April, one of the earliest ends to winter in memory. I wonder if Winter 11-12 might be similar in that we see a -NAO with lots of cold air early in the winter, but the blocking fades a bit like last year as the Niña strength is fully felt by the atmosphere.

I still think we see some west-based blocking this winter given the NAO index this summer, the tri-pole configuration in the North Atlantic (warmer SSTs in the sub-tropics, Newfoundland cold pool, warm waters south of Greenland), the low sea ice, and the fact that a -QBO with low solar activity favors a sudden stratospheric warming earlier in the winter. I wouldn't be surprised if we got a repeat of Winter 10-11 in some senses with December being extremely cold, a moderation mid-winter and then perhaps another favorable pattern in March as we had from 3/20-4/1 this past season.

Yeah its certainly possible Rindge had close to 150" that winter....over 140" anyway for sure.

I could see us having a frigid east in December if the NAO cooperates. I'm always skeptical at forecasting big NAO blocks because we know so little about their formation, but if it happens, then we'll see cold departures very far SE compared to if there is no big NAO block. We'll see how the tropical forcing goes too...sometimes in a weaker Nina you can get MJO waves into the dateline region which will promote a +PNA...we saw this in latter January last year and in 2000-2001. Actually in January 2009 it happened too which screwed up everyone's monster torch forecast for that month.

[Snowstorms]

Scott and I were just talking about '71-'72 on the phone, and here is the 500mb pattern that winter...you can see the classic Aleutian ridge getting far enough north in Bering Straight and Kamchatka to let all the arctic air into Canada....the SE ridge is a bit robust but not so much as to screw NE...it was a huge interior winter.

Seems reasonable. Given the amount of Cold across Canada I wouldn't mind having a similar Winter to this. A few more factors, the NAO/AO were mostly positive and the PNA was negative. Very Strong Aleutian High by the looks of it. A weak SE Ridge present in a Weak Nina seems reasonable, does it not? Another factor was the +QBO. QBO did not go negative till mid 1972 so these factors are to be considered. In terms of ENSO this maybe a decent year but other indices I don't think so.

We were discussing this analog trying to figure out how the winter might look if we didn't get a huge -NAO...basically something more neutralish. That would have been a monster year for your new stomping ground....Ashburnham coop had 138.9" of snow that winter. We had around 100" here.

Hmm Toronto got about 75" making it one of the top snowiest on record based on the data from the Airport.

The higher elevations of Rindge must have had close to 150", then, right? The most snow I've experienced in a single season is 82" in 95-96 in Westchester and 83" in 08-09 at Middlebury, though I missed the second half of that winter because I went to Chile in mid-February, although most of the storms were over by that point anyway as Central Vermont hardly recorded any snowfall in February and just a few inches in March. We were getting snow at a breakneck pace in VT during the weak Niña/-PDO/-NAO winter of 08-09 during December and January...I remember thinking the campus would have a good shot at 100" as we must have had around 60" by January 31st. Middlebury got 10-11" in both 12/19 and 12/21, then 6" from a clipper in early January, then 13" from the 1/28 SW flow event which also creamed my house in Dobbs Ferry....all of a sudden, however, the action shut off. February was virtually snowless, the campus got 4" on the fringes of the 3/2 Miller A, and that was that. I don't think we recorded any accumulating snows in the second half of March or April, one of the earliest ends to winter in memory. I wonder if Winter 11-12 might be similar in that we see a -NAO with lots of cold air early in the winter, but the blocking fades a bit like last year as the Niña strength is fully felt by the atmosphere.

I still think we see some west-based blocking this winter given the NAO index this summer, the tri-pole configuration in the North Atlantic (warmer SSTs in the sub-tropics, Newfoundland cold pool, warm waters south of Greenland), the low sea ice, and the fact that a -QBO with low solar activity favors a sudden stratospheric warming earlier in the winter. I wouldn't be surprised if we got a repeat of Winter 10-11 in some senses with December being extremely cold, a moderation mid-winter and then perhaps another favorable pattern in March as we had from 3/20-4/1 this past season.

Based on the Solar analogs I've viewed it seems as though we may see East Based Blocking favoring more than West Based. I prefer 2008-09, 1995-96, 1971-72, 1964-65 and 1954-55 blend. 1917-18 can be considered as well.

An active Winter season should lead to an Active Severe Weather season next Spring but that's a long way out.

[nzucker]

The La Niña shows signs of of rapid strengthening on NOAA's latest SST anomaly map...especially around 135W, major cooling ongoing. This event may surprise us with its intensity.

8/15 SSTs:

8/18 SSTs (NEW):

[Snowstorms]

The La Niña shows signs of of rapid strengthening on NOAA's latest SST anomaly map...especially around 135W, major cooling ongoing. This event may surprise us with its intensity.

8/15 SSTs:

8/18 SSTs (NEW):

Yes, getting impressively cold across the ENSO regions. Here's a look at subsurface waters too;

SOI remains positive keeping trade winds present across the regions.

[nzucker]

Based on the Solar analogs I've viewed it seems as though we may see East Based Blocking favoring more than West Based. I prefer 2008-09, 1995-96, 1971-72, 1964-65 and 1954-55 blend. 1917-18 can be considered as well.

I'm not sure I like some of these analogs. 95-96 followed a moderate El Niño winter, which may have allowed the STJ to become more active in Feb/March, creating the huge late-season snows we saw that year after the January blizzard, which was a polar jet storm. We also had a +PDO which often teleconnects to more of a +PNA than we're likely to see this winter. It's easier to displace the Aleutian ridge towards the West Coast in a +PDO regime.

54-55 was also a bit dissimilar in that it was a first year Niña with a very weak, displaced NAO block that didn't have much effect on the hemispheric pattern. I think sometimes first year ENSO events can both have remnants of a previous year's different ENSO state and be more powerful in their own right, with more of a SE ridge in this case.

The analogs I'm considering most: 55-56, 62-63, 70-71, 71-72, 74-75, 00-01, 08-09...we have some in common for sure.

[ORH_wxman]

I think a lot of people got fooled this summer as HM and VAwxman said about the temporary warming in the ENSO regions. People did back in 2008-2009 too and we saw some calls for a weak Nino that year in the summer. Its hard to predict that region though as the past has shown. We certainly have building evidence for the possibility of a moderate Nina...but as I mentioned last night, I personally still favor a weak Nina. We'll see where it goes though, it will do whatever it wants regardless of what I or anyone else thinks. Its been a pretty impressive burst lately though and the subsurface as well.

[nzucker]

I think a lot of people got fooled this summer as HM and VAwxman said about the temporary warming in the ENSO regions. People did back in 2008-2009 too and we saw some calls for a weak Nino that year in the summer. Its hard to predict that region though as the past has shown. We certainly have building evidence for the possibility of a moderate Nina...but as I mentioned last night, I personally still favor a weak Nina. We'll where it goes though, it will do whatever it wants regardless of what I or anyone else thinks. Its been a pretty impressive burst lately though and the subsurface as well.

I've always been on the train for a Niña in Winter 11-12 given the analogs. Historically, when we see an El Niño transition into a powerful Niña (or even a weaker one/negative-neutral), it tends to last a couple/few years. Historically, when we see an El Niño transition into a powerful Niña (or even a weaker one/negative-neutral), it tends to last a couple/few years. Ir's very rare to bounce right back to an El Niño as the -ENSO state is inherently more stable from an atmospheric I've always been on the train for a Niña in Winter 11-12 given the analogs. Historically, when we see an El Niño transition into a powerful Niña (or even a weaker one/negative-neutral), it tends to last a couple/few years. It's very rare to bounce right back to an El Niño as the -ENSO state is inherently more stable from an atmospheric I've always been on the train for a Niña in Winter 11-12 given the analogs. Historically, when we see an El Niño transition into a powerful Niña (or even a weaker one/negative-neutral), it tends to last a couple/few years. Ir's very rare to bounce right back to an El Niño as the -ENSO state is inherently more stable from an atmospheric perspective. Just thinking about 07-08/08-09, 98-99/99-00/00-01, 83-84/84-85/85-86, 73-74/74-75/75-76, 58-59/59-60/60-61/61-62/62-63, etc...These La Niña years tend to come in bunches whereas El Niños, at least the stronger ones, are normally one year events. The notable exception was the twin El Niño of 86-87 and 87-88 followed by a single-year powerful La Niña in 88-89. However, that's a rare exception and occurred during a +PDO phase. It was hard to imagine we'd revert right back to Niño for Winter 11-12 given the powerful -PDO configuration and the strength of the Humboldt/Antarctic current. I always thought a weak Niña was favored with only minor changes for a weak El Niño, and I still think I'm right but the chances of a moderate Niña are rapidly increasing.

[ORH_wxman]

I've always been on the train for a Niña in Winter 11-12 given the analogs. Historically, when we see an El Niño transition into a powerful Niña (or even a weaker one/negative-neutral), it tends to last a couple/few years. Ir's very rare to bounce right back to an El Niño as the -ENSO state is inherently more stable from an atmospheric perspective. Just thinking about 07-08/08-09, 98-99/99-00/00-01, 83-84/84-85/85-86, 73-74/74-75/75-76, 58-59/59-60/60-61/61-62/62-63, etc...These La Niña years tend to come in bunches whereas El Niños, at least the stronger ones, are normally one year events. The notable exception was the twin El Niño of 86-87 and 87-88 followed by a single-year powerful La Niña in 88-89. However, that's a rare exception and occurred during a +PDO phase. It was hard to imagine we'd revert right back to Niño for Winter 11-12 given the powerful -PDO configuration and the strength of the Humboldt/Antarctic current. I always thought a weak Niña was favored with only minor changes for a weak El Niño, and I still think I'm right but the chances of a moderate Niña are rapidly increasing.

I'm currently thinking:

60% weak La Nina

25% mod La Nina

15% negative neutral

I may be a little too bullish on the La Nina percentages, but that's what I'll stick with for now. I think its clear now we have about 0% chance for a warm neutral or weak El Nino.

[CoastalWx]

Scott and I were just talking about '71-'72 on the phone, and here is the 500mb pattern that winter...you can see the classic Aleutian ridge getting far enough north in Bering Straight and Kamchatka to let all the arctic air into Canada....the SE ridge is a bit robust but not so much as to screw NE...it was a huge interior winter.

Man if we had just a little more +height anomalies in Greenland...what a winter that would have been for the coast.

I know we talked on the phone, but my thoughts for the winter are a little more dicey for the coast. I think the base state of the NAO will be negative, but I'm a little nervous about the blocking shifting around or moving east with the uptick in solar. Also, I hope the ridging shifts back to the east instead of over the southern plains, although I think it will eventually do that.

If we can get the Aleutian Ridge poking into Santa's fanny again, and nao blocking in a good place...I'll feel pretty dam good about high snowfall. As of now, I think it will end up being above normal even at the coast, but I'd feel better from Will and points north, across the interior.

The way blocking has setup in the past..it could once again destroy any Nina assumptions that we have. If the NAO is strong enough, once again we could see an ice cold Southeast..especially Dec and January so as you can see, lots to think about here going forward.

[tamarack]

The higher elevations of Rindge must have had close to 150", then, right?

Fitzwilliam, at 1,160' a bit east of Rindge, measured 125", with 14" on 11/25-26, 16" on 2/19-20, and 18" on 3/15-16 the biggies. EEN had 30" less at 510'. Oddly, CON recorded 100" at 346', getting nearly 10" from that late Nov storm while EEN had only 4".

Not quite 70-71 level, but definitely a winner.

[Snowstorms]

I'm not sure I like some of these analogs. 95-96 followed a moderate El Niño winter, which may have allowed the STJ to become more active in Feb/March, creating the huge late-season snows we saw that year after the January blizzard, which was a polar jet storm. We also had a +PDO which often teleconnects to more of a +PNA than we're likely to see this winter. It's easier to displace the Aleutian ridge towards the West Coast in a +PDO regime.

54-55 was also a bit dissimilar in that it was a first year Niña with a very weak, displaced NAO block that didn't have much effect on the hemispheric pattern. I think sometimes first year ENSO events can both have remnants of a previous year's different ENSO state and be more powerful in their own right, with more of a SE ridge in this case.

The analogs I'm considering most: 55-56, 62-63, 70-71, 71-72, 74-75, 00-01, 08-09...we have some in common for sure.

If we see a -NAO/-AO and -PNA develop this upcoming Winter then 95-96 can be considered as well and it was a Weak Nina as well despite a Nino back in 1994-95. We did however like you mentioned have a +PDO but another thing was the slightly negative/neutral AMO. Some climate models however develop some kind of -AMO by next year so that needs to be watched.

I prefer 1964-65, 1967-68 as well. Both Winters had decent blocking and also a -QBO. We also had a -PDO those Winters.

1917-1918 can be considered as well.

[Snowstorms]

Looking at -ENSO years and -PNA years we get this composite.

First air temperatures;

Much of Canada and Northern regions of the United states is below normal in terms of temperatures. The Warm anomalies across the SE are associated with the SE Ridge (primary factor in a Nina) and -PNA which often creates a ridge across the East.

Lets look at the heights now;

As you can see above, we see a very Strong Aleutian High anchored in the Pacific though we see very little signs of any significant blocking across the Arctic though the pattern resembles a typical Nina with a Weak-Mod SE Ridge present.

In most cases we often see a -PNA in a La Nina and +PNA in a El Nino.

As always any questions and comments will be appreciated.

[weathafella]

GOA is cooperating with the global ssta now so favorable that I am about to pull the plug on the dud!

[SoCoWx]

GOA is cooperating with the global ssta now so favorable that I am about to pull the plug on the dud!

Links? Images? Anything?

And is this good for everyone east of the divide or just New England??

[40/70 Benchmark]

Scott and I were just talking about '71-'72 on the phone, and here is the 500mb pattern that winter...you can see the classic Aleutian ridge getting far enough north in Bering Straight and Kamchatka to let all the arctic air into Canada....the SE ridge is a bit robust but not so much as to screw NE...it was a huge interior winter.

:weenie:

[weathafella]

Links? Images? Anything?

And is this good for everyone east of the divide or just New England??

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.8.18.2011.gif

[SoCoWx]

http://www.osdpd.noa...t.8.18.2011.gif

Awesome. Looks like a west-based Greenland block may be in the works too. Maybe it wont be as much of a dud for places outside of the Northern tier...or at least not as bad as some are saying.

[HoarfrostHubb]

GOA is cooperating with the global ssta now so favorable that I am about to pull the plug on the dud!

This is disturbing...

[weathafella]

This is disturbing...<img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/thumbsdownsmileyanim.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' />

We may make a run at an amazing winter!

[Ginx snewx]

GOA is cooperating with the global ssta now so favorable that I am about to pull the plug on the dud!

Pop that b I t c h

[HoarfrostHubb]

We may make a run at an amazing winter!

This is theoppositeofdisturbing...

[Snowstorms]

Update on La Nina on my blog along with updates for Hurricane Irene.

http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/2011/08/la-nina-update.html

[mitchnick]

We may make a run at an amazing winter!

your "gut" may be onto something Jerry

fwiw, my limited QBO research says I'd be excited if I lived in NE this winter

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Latest weekly NOAA ENSO report is leaning towards neutral to LA Nina conditions favorable into the fall.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

[Snowstorms]

Fall outlook out on my blog, check it out guys;

http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/2011/08/fall-outlook-for-north-america.html

If you have any questions ask me here or on my blog.

Winter outlook should be out next week!

[weathafella]

I'm going to wait until it's almost 10/1 before issuing....but I've gone 180. The upcoming winter may make snow haters fondly remember 2010-11. We could be entering record totals in many. Areas about 50-100 further north vs last year.

,

[SoCoWx]

I'm going to wait until it's almost 10/1 before issuing....but I've gone 180. The upcoming winter may make snow haters fondly remember 2010-11. We could be entering record totals in many. Areas about 50-100 further north vs last year.

,

That would be pretty good. Would mean we'd still see decent amounts of wintry precip. down this way which would be great.