Winter 2011-2012

[CoastalWx]

Here's a good animation of how the subsurface cold anomalies have expanded:

This thing is progressing nicely. It does make you wonder if we creep to the high end weak category, if things keep moving along rather steadily.

[ORH_wxman]

This thing is progressing nicely. It does make you wonder if we creep to the high end weak category, if things keep moving along rather steadily.

I think that is very likely. I wouldn't rule out a moderate Nina either, but I'd certainly favor weak the most right now. We'd have to see some pretty large cooling numbers by September if we are to see it go moderate.

[snowNH]

Will, Did you feel more confident last winter or this winter at this time? or is it too early?

[ORH_wxman]

Will, Did you feel more confident last winter or this winter at this time? or is it too early?

Its still pretty early, but I'd say I actually feel better right now than I did at this time last summer. That certainly does not mean we are going to have a good winter or anything close to as good as last year was.

[nzucker]

Its still pretty early, but I'd say I actually feel better right now than I did at this time last summer. That certainly does not mean we are going to have a good winter or anything close to as good as last year was.

I'd always feel better with a weaker Niña.......we've had some pretty poor patterns in the stronger ones like 54-55, 98-99, and 99-00. 07-08 wasn't a great pattern but further north sneaked in a decent winter anyway.

[A-L-E-X]

I'd always feel better with a weaker Niña.......we've had some pretty poor patterns in the stronger ones like 54-55, 98-99, and 99-00. 07-08 wasn't a great pattern but further north sneaked in a decent winter anyway.

I remember 1999 was one of your analogs for the summer-- if the nina gets too strong, that winter analog may come into play-- although it was in a +NAO period and that winter was completely out of character for la ninas in terms of how widespread the warmth was.

[nzucker]

I remember 1999 was one of your analogs for the summer-- if the nina gets too strong, that winter analog may come into play-- although it was in a +NAO period and that winter was completely out of character for la ninas in terms of how widespread the warmth was.

I would never use 99-00 as an analog for this winter. First of all, we're in a completely different NAO/PDO cycle right now, and we also know that most Niñas have featured more cold air in Canada than that winter. Even if the Niña were to strengthen more, the analogs I'd start looking at would be 55-56 and 70-71, both of which had high-latitude blocking and cold air moving into the Northern Tier of the CONUS. I think the strong El Niño of 97-98 also had a great warming effect on the globe and influenced at least Winter 98-99, and possibly 99-00. Note that we saw a much steeper drop in global temperatures in the 10-11 Niña than those years.

[CoastalWx]

I think that is very likely. I wouldn't rule out a moderate Nina either, but I'd certainly favor weak the most right now. We'd have to see some pretty large cooling numbers by September if we are to see it go moderate.

Yeah I've been pondering that more and more..though I think more of a weak or high end weak Nina is favored, as you said. That's kind of why I was throwing out the -0.9C out there, but it is only mid August after all. Should be interesting to follow for sure come Sept and Oct.

[HM]

I would never use 99-00 as an analog for this winter. First of all, we're in a completely different NAO/PDO cycle right now, and we also know that most Niñas have featured more cold air in Canada than that winter. Even if the Niña were to strengthen more, the analogs I'd start looking at would be 55-56 and 70-71, both of which had high-latitude blocking and cold air moving into the Northern Tier of the CONUS. I think the strong El Niño of 97-98 also had a great warming effect on the globe and influenced at least Winter 98-99, and possibly 99-00. Note that we saw a much steeper drop in global temperatures in the 10-11 Niña than those years.

I couldn't agree more about the mammoth 97-98 El Niño. That had an effect on the globe more than just the wintertime temperature distribution. It had a major effect on the LOD, underwater currents and stratosphere. These things carried over for years and in some respect are still having a small effect...

[A-L-E-X]

I would never use 99-00 as an analog for this winter. First of all, we're in a completely different NAO/PDO cycle right now, and we also know that most Niñas have featured more cold air in Canada than that winter. Even if the Niña were to strengthen more, the analogs I'd start looking at would be 55-56 and 70-71, both of which had high-latitude blocking and cold air moving into the Northern Tier of the CONUS. I think the strong El Niño of 97-98 also had a great warming effect on the globe and influenced at least Winter 98-99, and possibly 99-00. Note that we saw a much steeper drop in global temperatures in the 10-11 Niña than those years.

Yes, exactly-- but I remember 1999 was one of the warmer summer analogs and a better analog for the summer than the winter. NAO has much more of an effect in the winter, in the summer it's nearly useless for us. Also remember, we're at the opposite end of the solar cycle than we were back then.

[andyhb]

Saw this posted on another thread...

[Isotherm]

wow, thanks. Im sure that will make zucker happy. A great season here is your avg. I think i avg about 40 here,

Will, what was ORH's and Rindge's highest total on record?

The higher the average, the less likely snowfall totals would be 175%+ of the average, as we sometimes get down here. A 200% winter for Rindge would mean 160-165", which I'm sure they've never had. My guess would be 140" for Rindge's top.

[HM]

I think a moderate event is becoming likely at this point. The neutral signal was bogus because of the unique stratospheric setup that occurred during the typical weakening period in the spring.

[Isotherm]

Saw this posted on another thread...

I find the CFS is often a reactionary model, i.e., we have slight changes in the tropical pacific, it jumps on that and exaggerates the trend line 2-4 months down the road. It's highly unlikely we'll see a Nina that intense given ENSO 3.4 temps have warmed to neutral this summer. For all prior cases of mod/strong nina following mod/strong nina, ENSO 3.4 remained < -0.5c throughout the summer months. That did not happen in the present case, which makes anything stronger than -1.0c very improbable.

[Isotherm]

I think a moderate event is becoming likely at this point. The neutral signal was bogus because of the unique stratospheric setup that occurred during the typical weakening period in the spring.

If so HM, this will be the only time since 1950 that we see a mod+ Nina become neutral in the summer, then resume mod+ in the following winter. At this point I'm favoring -0.5c > -1.0c.

[HM]

If so HM, this will be the only time since 1950 that we see a mod+ Nina become neutral in the summer, then resume mod+ in the following winter. At this point I'm favoring -0.5c > -1.0c.

While I appreciate those statistics and they may likely make me look foolish in the end, my hunch is that these "neutral numbers" were bogus. I think -1 is a good estimate at this point, which I would consider moderate.

[A-L-E-X]

While I appreciate those statistics and they may likely make me look foolish in the end, my hunch is that these "neutral numbers" were bogus. I think -1 is a good estimate at this point, which I would consider moderate.

Also, we need to consider that 1950 onwards is a very limited dataset. If we always stuck to that, then last winter should not have happened

[ORH_wxman]

Will, what was ORH's and Rindge's highest total on record?

The higher the average, the less likely snowfall totals would be 175%+ of the average, as we sometimes get down here. A 200% winter for Rindge would mean 160-165", which I'm sure they've never had. My guess would be 140" for Rindge's top.

ORH: 132.9"

Ringe: 150-155" (estimated using Ashburnham's record 145.7" total)

[rgwp96]

ORH: 132.9"

Ringe: 150-155" (estimated using Ashburnham's record 145.7" total)

highest i ever recorded here was 1996 with 102 i believe

[A-L-E-X]

highest i ever recorded here was 1996 with 102 i believe

I remember there was a measurement from near High Point or Sussex of 125" in 1995-96 that was shown on WABC.

[ORH_wxman]

highest i ever recorded here was 1996 with 102 i believe

The variance will tend to be higher the less snow you average as Isotherm already mentioned. There's places on Cape Cod that have had about 5" of snow in a season and also 120" of snow in a season. Meanwhile, a place like Rindge hardly ever has less than 35" or 40" but also doesn't crack 120" all that much either. Just a ton of 70-100" type seasons.

[ORH_wxman]

I remember there was a measurement from near High Point or Sussex of 125" in 1995-96 that was shown on WABC.

It wouldn't shock me. The Sussex coop had 94.9" that season and they were missing April data...I thought maybe they got a bit of snow in April too though they might have been too far west for the Apr 9-10 storm.

But accounting for an extra 1000 feet of elevation, you could definitely envision totals well up over 100" and possibly approaching the 120-125" range.

[A-L-E-X]

It wouldn't shock me. The Sussex coop had 94.9" that season and they were missing April data...I thought maybe they got a bit of snow in April too though they might have been too far west for the Apr 9-10 storm.

But accounting for an extra 1000 feet of elevation, you could definitely envision totals well up over 100" and possibly approaching the 120-125" range.

Will, do you remember there was actually an April snow event before that where the NW burbs changed over first? I distinctly remember that. I also remember Montauk changed over early and got 3" from a backdoor cold front.

[A-L-E-X]

The variance will tend to be higher the less snow you average as Isotherm already mentioned. There's places on Cape Cod that have had about 5" of snow in a season and also 120" of snow in a season. Meanwhile, a place like Rindge hardly ever has less than 35" or 40" but also doesn't crack 120" all that much either. Just a ton of 70-100" type seasons.

Yes, and I think most of us would give up the higher variability for more consistency

[ORH_wxman]

Will, do you remember there was actually an April snow event before that where the NW burbs changed over first? I distinctly remember that. I also remember Montauk changed over early and got 3" from a backdoor cold front.

Yes, it was on easter sunday if you are talking about the same event. It was 2 days before the Apr 9-10 event. It probably snowed in NW NJ for that one. We had 6 inches here. It started snowing up here during easter dinner that afternoon around 4pm.

[mahk_webstah]

ORH: 132.9"

Ringe: 150-155" (estimated using Ashburnham's record 145.7" total)

That is lower than I would've thought. We hit close to 150 here in 07-08 at 700 ft.

[VAwxman]

While I appreciate those statistics and they may likely make me look foolish in the end, my hunch is that these "neutral numbers" were bogus. I think -1 is a good estimate at this point, which I would consider moderate.

Hey, fancy meeting you over here in the NE subforum!

I agree with you here and personally think the odd stratospheric setup which seemed to help lead us up to neutral per SSTs really threw a lot of folks, myself partially included, off this summer. We were able to get the "typical" weakening a lot faster and stronger, but the atmosphere held on to a lot of la nina-like vestiges and was basically telling you where it "wants" to go down the road. Not only did that wind up giving us a hotter than expected summer, but also means we probably get pretty darn close to moderate nina status, if not all the way there.

[Snowstorms]

I updated my blog on the current ENSO along with forecast models.

http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/

BTW here's the latest IRI ENSO model update.

http://iri.columbia..../SST_table.html

Most members are very warm. I think there's a good chance we'll end up with at least a Weak Nina. The CFS could be right?

[SoCoWx]

I updated my blog on the current ENSO along with forecast models.

http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/

BTW here's the latest IRI ENSO model update.

http://iri.columbia..../SST_table.html

Most members are very warm. I think there's a good chance we'll end up with at least a Weak Nina. The CFS could be right?

I feel the warm ones and the NCEP CFSv2 are outliers. But -1.0 is pretty likely.

[ORH_wxman]

Scott and I were just talking about '71-'72 on the phone, and here is the 500mb pattern that winter...you can see the classic Aleutian ridge getting far enough north in Bering Straight and Kamchatka to let all the arctic air into Canada....the SE ridge is a bit robust but not so much as to screw NE...it was a huge interior winter.