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Winter 2011-2012

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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You are obsessed with Rindge, Will.

Not Rindge itself...just the general area...Ashburnham up to Rindge over to New Ipswich, to Winchendon, MA, etc. Its the extreme of my "N ORH hills" forecasts I have to issue every winter and the spots I wish I was during marginal events. You just happen to be moving into one of those areas so I will now mention Rindge itself more often.

Once you spend 2-3 winters there and then drive south home and watch the snow pack dwindle rapidly once outside of that zone, you will quickly understand why I envy that area.

I used to tutor math at Cushing Academy for 3 years. Look up Cushing Academy on google and you will understand.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Not Rindge itself...just the general area...Ashburnham up to Rindge over to New Ipswich, to Winchendon, MA, etc. Its the extreme of my "N ORH hills" forecasts I have to issue every winter and the spots I wish I was during marginal events. You just happen to be moving into one of those areas so I will now mention Rindge itself more often.

Once you spend 2-3 winters there and then drive south home and watch the snow pack dwindle rapidly once outside of that zone, you will quickly understand why I envy that area.

I used to tutor math at Cushing Academy for 3 years. Look up Cushing Academy on google and you will understand.

Cushing Academy looks really nice...I'll bet you made some decent cash there, Will! Do you still tutor math?

I could see driving how the elevation really drops off to the west...I drove west on Route 119 to Route 10 in order to get back to I-91, and there was a pretty significant descent on 119. The elevation is fairly low on I-91 going through the Pioneer Valley and then heading into Springfield.

I am so pumped about this teaching experience...I've been working a few hours every day to familiarize myself with the Holt textbook series we're using, to download videos to show the students on Latin American culture, and to prepare my own vocabulary and grammar worksheets for practice. I have subbed a lot but never been a full-time teacher, so I have a lot of work in starting my career. At the same time, I feel I'm getting a good deal at 20k/year plus full room and board. I'll be able to invest in a new car, probably going to finance it through my dad, and then still have some money left.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Cushing Academy looks really nice...I'll bet you made some decent cash there, Will! Do you still tutor math?

I could see driving how the elevation really drops off to the west...I drove west on Route 119 to Route 10 in order to get back to I-91, and there was a pretty significant descent on 119. The elevation is fairly low on I-91 going through the Pioneer Valley and then heading into Springfield.

I am so pumped about this teaching experience...I've been working a few hours every day to familiarize myself with the Holt textbook series we're using, to download videos to show the students on Latin American culture, and to prepare my own vocabulary and grammar worksheets for practice. I have subbed a lot but never been a full-time teacher, so I have a lot of work in starting my career. At the same time, I feel I'm getting a good deal at 20k/year plus full room and board. I'll be able to invest in a new car, probably going to finance it through my dad, and then still have some money left.

Cushing Academy is a great school...a lot of money there. And up on a hill in Ashburnham, MA...amazing for snow. I was always pissed I couldn't just stay there. But I got some good paydays there. I had to tutor a basketball star there to pass the SAT math section so he could get a full ride to UNC and he was funny...because he knew he was great at basketball, but also knew he was totally effed if he didn't pass the SAT math section (he had to clear 420 math). He saw me as his only way into UNC...and I got him there. I trained him to score well on the math to his ability...he actually got 490 on the math. He offered me free tickets to UNC home games that year he got in, but I declined obviously, but it was a good feeling getting the dude into his college for his scholarship. I haven't heard from him since that year, but I know he did well because of me...its a nice satisfaction. He was from Maryland...Cushing Academy is a boarding school. I remember when I was quizzing him for the math SAT I asked him what he thought of the winter in Ashburnham and he said "holy sh#t, its nonstop snow, I never knew snow just stayed on the ground man and then it snows again on top of that, it always melted in a couple days where I am from outside Baltimore".

I think you will find your place at this school....I found great joy even at Cushing Academy even though that was a part time job. You seem to love teaching, so you will love it. You can ask those boarding school kids the same thing I asked that UNC star...how they feel about the winters there. They always loved to talk about it to me.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Cushing Academy is a great school...a lot of money there. And up on a hill in Ashburnham, MA...amazing for snow. I was always pissed I couldn't just stay there. But I got some good paydays there. I had to tutor a basketball star there to pass the SAT math section so he could get a full ride to UNC and he was funny...because he knew he was great at basketball, but also knew he was totally effed if he didn't pass the SAT math section (he had to clear 420 math). He saw me as his only way into UNC...and I got him there. I trained him to score well on the math to his ability...he actually got 490 on the math. He offered me free tickets to UNC home games that year he got in, but I declined obviously, but it was a good feeling getting the dude into his college for his scholarship. I haven't heard from him since that year, but I know he did well because of me...its a nice satisfaction. He was from Maryland...Cushing Academy is a boarding school. I remember when I was quizzing him for the math SAT I asked him what he thought of the winter in Ashburnham and he said "holy sh#t, its nonstop snow, I never knew snow just stayed on the ground man and then it snows again on top of that, it always melted in a couple days where I am from outside Baltimore".

I think you will find your place at this school....I found great joy even at Cushing Academy even though that was a part time job. You seem to love teaching, so you will love it. You can ask those boarding school kids the same thing I asked that UNC star...how they feel about the winters there. They always loved to talk about it to me.

Wow this is a nice story...one of the great satisfactions of teaching is knowing you've helped someone who's really struggling. I worked with a lot of ESL students in the school where I was a substitute (I was basically full-time by the end of last year even though I got paid per day), and it was always a beautiful feeling when you saw them improving in English because of the materials and exercises you introduced. They also liked having a younger teacher...I was the youngest employee in the building at 22, and having someone who was fluent in Spanish and could identify with the current youth culture really made a world of difference. I also worked with a girl who had Down's Syndrome and found it to be one of the most rewarding experiences, despite how much of a challenge it was; she really became attached to the teachers that helped make her day-to-day life a success, and there's nothing better than feeling that admiration. That's one of the reasons I am happy to work at a school for special ed students like Hampshire Country.

I do love teaching, and I'm very passionate about my subject....I've traveled all over Latin America and spent 6 months living in Chile on one of Middlebury's study abroad programs, so I'm very well immersed in the culture as well as my language skills. I've already prepared a unit on Chilean history and culture, and I'm currently working on one about Mexico's environmental problems...so Spanish is something that means a lot to me personally as much of my life has been spent either traveling in Spanish speaking countries, working hard to master the language, or making myself more aware of the politics and history down there. I hope I can communicate this passion to my students, despite their limitations.

I'm sure we'll get to talking about the harsh winters. I think I'm going to be running a gardening workshop, so the short growing seasons will come up.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Wow this is a nice story...one of the great satisfactions of teaching is knowing you've helped someone who's really struggling. I worked with a lot of ESL students in the school where I was a substitute (I was basically full-time by the end of last year even though I got paid per day), and it was always a beautiful feeling when you saw them improving in English because of the materials and exercises you introduced. They also liked having a younger teacher...I was the youngest employee in the building at 22, and having someone who was fluent in Spanish and could identify with the current youth culture really made a world of difference. I also worked with a girl who had Down's Syndrome and found it to be one of the most rewarding experiences, despite how much of a challenge it was; she really became attached to the teachers that helped make her day-to-day life a success, and there's nothing better than feeling that admiration. That's one of the reasons I am happy to work at a school for special ed students like Hampshire Country.

I do love teaching, and I'm very passionate about my subject....I've traveled all over Latin America and spent 6 months living in Chile on one of Middlebury's study abroad programs, so I'm very well immersed in the culture as well as my language skills. I've already prepared a unit on Chilean history and culture, and I'm currently working on one about Mexico's environmental problems...so Spanish is something that means a lot to me personally as much of my life has been spent either traveling in Spanish speaking countries, working hard to master the language, or making myself more aware of the politics and history down there. I hope I can communicate this passion to my students, despite their limitations.

I'm sure we'll get to talking about the harsh winters. I think I'm going to be running a gardening workshop, so the short growing seasons will come up.

I took 6 years of Spanish but barely know a word...I'm envious of you that you know that language. I only know that almohada means pillow...stuff like that.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The euro monthlies look pretty weenie-ish in the Nov-Jan timeframe. Ridge south of the Aleutians, PV type features from eastern slopes of Canadian Rockies to Hudson Bay, and NAO ridging.

Again...take them FWIW...and it's not much..lol, but interesting anyways.

Yeah....well, i don't know what background physics are conducting this show but if this doesn't change soon, i don't care how sensibly warm it has verified we are heading for one early-ass flappen winter; before Hollow's eve at this rate.

that's not a prediction - more like a warning. change things or deal with it.

Hurricanes on the extended should not be ignored; the probabilities products have been anomalously high for latter August for weeks now and we are here, and seeing the deterministic models agree on a system - less position - is intriguing.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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Remember I did live in Vermont for the better part of 4 years. We had above average snowfall every single year I was at Middlebury; even though the campus only averages 60-65" historically, I think we averaged a bit over 70"/season when I was a student there. 08-09 was a particularly snowy winter with around 83" falling at Midd, and we also had a much better winter than most in the North Country in 09-10 because we received 20" on the 1/3/2010 retrograde event due to low-level convergence over the Champlain Valley from the due north winds funneling between the Greens and Adirondacks, creating enhancement.

I've also seen some pretty snowy winters in Dobbs...I was a freshman in HS for 02-03 when the town recorded 55", and I think my house had a bit more at 350' elevation because the XMAS 2002 storm was quite elevation dependent. I also drove home for 2/10/10 and 2/25, seeing this:

post-475-0-00162900-1313463561.jpg

Yes, Hudson Bay had a record late freeze in Winter 10-11.

The warm anomalies across the South do make sense in a Niña; the lack of a STJ creates above average heights across the Southern Tier, and the lack of precipitation means sunny days in an area that tends to have a high sun angle even in winter.

BTW, I like how you're thinking about 77-78 even though it was a weak Niño. The ECM monthlies look quite similar with the block oriented over the Canadian Archipelago, although 77-78 had a slightly better pattern because the block migrated towards AK on occasion and thus eliminated the strong -PNA that the Euro monthlies are showing. Here is the composite:

post-475-0-98239800-1313463744.png

Yeah thanks. I carefully analyzed the pattern present in that Winter and it resembles what's been happening recently with the NAO/AO though not including ENSO that is. A Weak Nina may enhance the cold anomalies so that should be very interesting. It would be nice to get a storm like the 93 storm or Dec 07 storm.

I'm calling for a consistent +PNA pattern though it may be negative at times though given the strong blocking the chances are low combined with a -EPO.

It was a nice Winter for Toronto as well...about 71" fell also with below normal temperatures.

The euro monthlies look pretty weenie-ish in the Nov-Jan timeframe. Ridge south of the Aleutians, PV type features from eastern slopes of Canadian Rockies to Hudson Bay, and NAO ridging.

Again...take them FWIW...and it's not much..lol, but interesting anyways.

Its only August and it will likely change come October/November. We should have a better picture by then.

Some climate models develop a -AMO look in the Atlantic next year, so that could be interesting.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I'm calling for a consistent +PNA pattern though it may be negative at times though given the strong blocking the chances are low combined with a -EPO.

It was a nice Winter for Toronto as well...about 71" fell also with below normal temperatures.

Its only August and it will likely change come October/November. We should have a better picture by then.

Some climate models develop a -AMO look in the Atlantic next year, so that could be interesting.

That's really dangerous in a La Nina. I would favor a -PNA, especially now that the PDO regime has shifted.

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That's really dangerous in a La Nina. I would favor a -PNA, especially now that the PDO regime has shifted.

I'd like to know why he thought this....not busting chops...but why he thinks a +PNA will happen.

Hmm lets take last Winter for an example. We had a Moderate-Strong Nina though we had a -PNA in December and February and +PNA in January and March despite a -PDO and Nina regime. I would lean towards something similar to last Winter. Thats just my thoughts right now. I'm currently Working on my Winter outlook, should be out in 2 weeks on my blog.

Whats your take on High Latitude Volcanic eruptions this year? We had the Iceland Eruption earlier this year and High Lat. Volcanoes increase the chances of strong blocking, similar to what happened this past Winter with that eruption last year. Also Katla and Hekla are active as well?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Hmm lets take last Winter for an example. We had a Moderate-Strong Nina though we had a -PNA in December and February and +PNA in January and March despite a -PDO and Nina regime. I would lean towards something similar to last Winter. Thats just my thoughts right now. I'm currently Working on my Winter outlook, should be out in 2 weeks on my blog.

Whats your take on High Latitude Volcanic eruptions this year? We had the Iceland Eruption earlier this year and High Lat. Volcanoes increase the chances of strong blocking, similar to what happened this past Winter with that eruption last year. Also Katla and Hekla are active as well?

Yeah we popped a big +PNA in the 2nd half of January, but the winter overall heavily favored a -PNA. I don't dispute that we could have +PNA periods, I just dispute favoring a +PNA throughout the winter.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Hmm lets take last Winter for an example. We had a Moderate-Strong Nina though we had a -PNA in December and February and +PNA in January and March despite a -PDO and Nina regime. I would lean towards something similar to last Winter. Thats just my thoughts right now. I'm currently Working on my Winter outlook, should be out in 2 weeks on my blog.

Whats your take on High Latitude Volcanic eruptions this year? We had the Iceland Eruption earlier this year and High Lat. Volcanoes increase the chances of strong blocking, similar to what happened this past Winter with that eruption last year. Also Katla and Hekla are active as well?

Well I think the +PNA was more due to tropical forcing from the MJO. If we can keep Nina weak, then we may be more prone to possible MJO forced +PNA events, but I still would favor a -PNA.

Also, I don't think the high latitude volcanoes spewed enough SO2 into the stratosphere to really influence the blocking, but that's also an area that's a little less known to me.

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rgwp96

rgwp96

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Its not totally uncommon for Rindge to lose to ORH as Jerry suggested in the August nor' easter thread. but here are the recent years where my area actually did better than Rindge:

2010-2011: 98.3" (Rindge: ~82")

2005-2006: 70.3" (Rindge: ~60") (both of these recent years I used my own total, but the ORH total would have beaten them too...the previous years are all ORH airport totals)

2002-2003: 117.3" (Rindge: ~115" but they may have narrowly beaten ORH...Ashburnham had 110", but I do not think Rindge had more than 7" more that year based on the data)

2004-2005: 114.3" (Rindge: ~100")

1993-1994: 100.2" (Rindge: ~95")

1992-1993: 120.1" (Rindge: 115" mostly because they missed the monster jackpot of the December 1992 storm)

So that's 6 times in the last 20 winters...but that was probably pretty anomalous. I'd guess the real average is probably more like 3 or 4 times in 20 years. Also, the margin of victory in ORH over Rindge is usually fairly small as shown...but Rindge can routinely beat ORH by 20"+ which is why the average a foot more on an annual basis.

just curious will, what are yours and rindges snowfall avgs?

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

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I took 6 years of Spanish but barely know a word...I'm envious of you that you know that language. I only know that almohada means pillow...stuff like that.

I took two years of Spanish in high school ... and one day of Spanish 4 honors ... not one word of English, and I was outta there lol.

I know how to say "can I go to the bathroom" ... that was essential

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I took two years of Spanish in high school ... and one day of Spanish 4 honors ... not one word of England, and I was outta there lol.

I know how to say "can I go to the bathroom" ... that was essential

Took 4 years of Spanish as well...even 1 year of "street Spanish" where you can talk more casually, instead of like a robot...but I still forget a lot of it.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

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Took 4 years of Spanish as well...even 1 year of "street Spanish" where you can talk more casually, instead of like a robot...but I still forget a lot of it.

Was the class actually called street Spanish? That's awesome! My main problem was definitely speaking it

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