Winter 2011-2012

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hopefully there is a storm during XMAS break or on a weekend that you and I can weenie it up for...meet at a bar with wi--fi, take a couple Jebwalks, have some brews etc. I hope to see you at some point once I move up to Rindge, will be busy teaching but will try to make time to come down that way and talk winter.

Will you get snow days? Or is it all residential?

Snow days rock for wx weenies

[HoarfrostHubb]

There's probably some good places to meet up in Gardner, MA...that's about a 25 minute drive for me and probably about 20 minutes from Rindge.

Ale House is really good. Not much else, though.

[nzucker]

Will you get snow days? Or is it all residential?

Snow days rock for wx weenies

It is all residential, so probably not.

[ORH_wxman]

It is all residential, so probably not.

Hopefully we don't have a winter like when AviationDave moved up to NH before '06-'07 winter. He got 43" of snow that year and thought it was the best winter ever at the time, lol.

It would be like if you get 55" this winter with pretty well sustained snow cover, you'd think it was the 3rd great winter in a row, when 55" is actually pretty putrid up in Rindge.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hopefully we don't have a winter like when AviationDave moved up to NH before '06-'07 winter. He got 43" of snow that year and thought it was the best winter ever at the time, lol.

It would be like if you get 55" this winter with pretty well sustained snow cover, you'd think it was the 3rd great winter in a row, when 55" is actually pretty putrid up in Rindge.

That would really really stink... but we are in for a stinker again at some point.

[ORH_wxman]

That would really really stink... but we are in for a stinker again at some point.

Yes, we are. Though I really don't think it will be this year that pays us back. I'd pick a mod/strong El Nino or crappy looking neutral year with high solar and +QBO. But that doesn't mean much....if we get a crappy winter, who cares what I thought in August or what the NAO looked like in summer, lol.

[nzucker]

Yes, we are. Though I really don't think it will be this year that pays us back. I'd pick a mod/strong El Nino or crappy looking neutral year with high solar and +QBO. But that doesn't mean much....if we get a crappy winter, who cares what I thought in August or what the NAO looked like in summer, lol.

I think we are in good shape, Will....summertime -NAO, -QBO/weak Niña, -PDO with cooling global temperatures, very low solar activity...what more can you really ask for? Besides, all of the analogs we've been looking at (56-57, 70-71, 71-72, 00-01, 07-08, etc) were at least decent winters in New England, many of them blockbusters. We also have a long-term trend that favors more precipitation in the area, possibly linked to the AMO, so that also works in our favor.

[ORH_wxman]

I think we are in good shape, Will....summertime -NAO, -QBO/weak Niña, -PDO with cooling global temperatures, very low solar activity...what more can you really ask for? Besides, all of the analogs we've been looking at (56-57, 70-71, 71-72, 00-01, 07-08, etc) were at least decent winters in New England, many of them blockbusters. We also have a long-term trend that favors more precipitation in the area, possibly linked to the AMO, so that also works in our favor.

Yeah I cannot really see a reason to be pessimistic at this point. It would be more worrisome south of NYC, but even there I wouldn't count out a big winter. Certainly a place like Rindge and much of interior SNE and over to BOS (who can use their latitude) I would feel pretty decent.

The only point I would start getting worried before winter started is if I saw a huge vortex setting up over AK/Bering Straight region in November or something and it didn't look very transient. A big -NAO in October wouldn't really worry me either given the base state since 2008.

[weathafella]

Yeah I cannot really see a reason to be pessimistic at this point. It would be more worrisome south of NYC, but even there I wouldn't count out a big winter. Certainly a place like Rindge and much of interior SNE and over to BOS (who can use their latitude) I would feel pretty decent.

The only point I would start getting worried before winter started is if I saw a huge vortex setting up over AK/Bering Straight region in November or something and it didn't look very transient. A big -NAO in October wouldn't really worry me either given the base state since 2008.

Today whet the appetite.

[Snowstorms]

Latest monthly ECMWF forecast courtesy of Brett Anderson (Accuwx)

Seems like a typical Nina pattern with storminess across the GLC's though it indicates slightly milder conditions across the region. Colder than normal out West seems normal given the Nina and -PDO configuration.

At this point its only August and it will likely change alot once we get closer so take this with a grain of salt now.

It also indicates a Weak Nina. Seems like the PV is centered across Far Northern Canada given the warm anomalies.

[Ginx snewx]

Latest monthly ECMWF forecast courtesy of Brett Anderson (Accuwx)

Seems like a typical Nina pattern with storminess across the GLC's though it indicates slightly milder conditions across the region. Colder than normal out West seems normal given the Nina and -PDO configuration.

At this point its only August and it will likely change alot once we get closer so take this with a grain of salt now.

It also indicates a Weak Nina. Seems like the PV is centered across Far Northern Canada given the warm anomalies.

FYI, last years Aug Euro could not have been more wrong for winter.

[nzucker]

Seems like a typical Nina pattern with storminess across the GLC's though it indicates slightly milder conditions across the region. Colder than normal out West seems normal given the Nina and -PDO configuration.

At this point its only August and it will likely change alot once we get closer so take this with a grain of salt now.

It also indicates a Weak Nina. Seems like the PV is centered across Far Northern Canada given the warm anomalies.

A PV over Canada would give colder anomalies there. A polar vortex is an upper level low that acts as a funnel, bringing cold dense air from the upper atmosphere to the surface. Usually, the PV has the coldest 850s in the hemisphere, close to -40C in many cases. It looks to me as if it's showing a block over Northern Canada with cold air spilling into the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, while there's a ridge ahead of the low anomaly in the West. This isn't atypical for a Niña, but the Euro also appears to be showing a 50/50 low, which usually correlates to a -NAO block, something curiously absent from that map. The picture could be a lot different if the block over Northern Canada extended more towards Greenland.

[CoastalWx]

FYI, last years Aug Euro could not have been more wrong for winter.

That scheme looks like a mess. I'll see them for real tomorrow.

They were a mess last year, but the trend was our friend. Any forecast this far out should have caution.

[Snowstorms]

A PV over Canada would give colder anomalies there. A polar vortex is an upper level low that acts as a funnel, bringing cold dense air from the upper atmosphere to the surface. Usually, the PV has the coldest 850s in the hemisphere, close to -40C in many cases. It looks to me as if it's showing a block over Northern Canada with cold air spilling into the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest, while there's a ridge ahead of the low anomaly in the West. This isn't atypical for a Niña, but the Euro also appears to be showing a 50/50 low, which usually correlates to a -NAO block, something curiously absent from that map. The picture could be a lot different if the block over Northern Canada extended more towards Greenland.

Seems like a West-Based blocking rather than East-Based blocking. Most of the Low Solar analogs I've viewed suggest East Based Blocking. West-Based blocking will have a similar look to 2009-10.

The Cold anomalies across Western North American seem typical for a Nina and the Milder conditions extending towards the GLC's/NE.

It will likely change for next month's update but I'm not buying this run yet.

[ORH_wxman]

Seems like a West-Based blocking rather than East-Based blocking. Most of the Low Solar analogs I've viewed suggest East Based Blocking. West-Based blocking will have a similar look to 2009-10.

The Cold anomalies across Western North American seem typical for a Nina and the Milder conditions extending towards the GLC's/NE.

It will likely change for next month's update but I'm not buying this run yet.

Last year had huge west-based blocking. So did '09-'10. The difference was the Pacific and the northern stream dominating the pattern vs the active STJ in the El Nino of '09-'10.

[Ginx snewx]

Seems like a West-Based blocking rather than East-Based blocking. Most of the Low Solar analogs I've viewed suggest East Based Blocking. West-Based blocking will have a similar look to 2009-10.

The Cold anomalies across Western North American seem typical for a Nina and the Milder conditions extending towards the GLC's/NE.

It will likely change for next month's update but I'm not buying this run yet.

Best avatar in SNE forum, where do you live.

[nzucker]

That scheme looks like a mess. I'll see them for real tomorrow.

They were a mess last year, but the trend was our friend. Any forecast this far out should have caution.

I just don't see why people in New England are getting worried; I'd be concerned in the Mid-Atlantic just because the Niña is strengthening, but farther north looks fine. Low solar/-QBO usually leads to an early stratospheric warming if you've read the Holton-Tan stuff and the work based on it, the -PDO is a cold signal for North America in the winter, we've seen the continuation of record NAO blocking this summer, and almost all our weak Niña/negative-neutral winters have been snowy. The analogs for a weak -ENSO since 1950 are: 50-51 (poor winter), 56-57 (decent winter), 59-60 (decent winter), 60-61 (huge winter), 61-62 (cold winter), 62-63 (cold winter), 66-67 (snowy winter, cold second half), 71-72 (decent winter), 74-75 (mediocre winter), 80-81 (good interior winter) 83-84 (good winter with record cold), 85-86 (mediocre), 95-96 (record snowy winter), 00-01 (cold and snowy winter), 05-06 (mediocre winter except Dec 05), 08-09 (cold and snowy winter)....

[CoastalWx]

I just don't see why people in New England are getting worried; I'd be concerned in the Mid-Atlantic just because the Niña is strengthening, but farther north looks fine. Low solar/-QBO usually leads to an early stratospheric warming if you've read the Holton-Tan stuff and the work based on it, the -PDO is a cold signal for North America in the winter, we've seen the continuation of record NAO blocking this summer, and almost all our weak Niña/negative-neutral winters have been snowy. The analogs for a weak -ENSO since 1950 are: 50-51 (poor winter), 56-57 (decent winter), 59-60 (decent winter), 60-61 (huge winter), 61-62 (cold winter), 62-63 (cold winter), 66-67 (snowy winter, cold second half), 71-72 (decent winter), 74-75 (mediocre winter), 80-81 (good interior winter) 83-84 (good winter with record cold), 85-86 (mediocre), 95-96 (record snowy winter), 00-01 (cold and snowy winter), 05-06 (mediocre winter except Dec 05), 08-09 (cold and snowy winter)....

I'm not worried much either at this point...although I can see why you're all giddy..lol. Every winter is good at 1300' in NH, when you're coming from the NYC area.

[Snowstorms]

Last year had huge west-based blocking. So did '09-'10. The difference was the Pacific and the northern stream dominating the pattern vs the active STJ in the El Nino of '09-'10.

Hmm....the blocking dissipated come February/March as the pattern turned more like a Nina. The extreme West-based blocking last December lead to a slow development of the Sea Ice esp. across Hudson Bay. The ECMWF suggest a similar pattern across the North though the warm anomalies across the South don't make sense.

It would be nice to see some strong storms this Winter and thats if we see an active STJ though briefly given the Nina.

Best avatar in SNE forum, where do you live.

Haha......Toronto (Canada)

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not worried much either at this point...although I can see why you're all giddy..lol. Every winter is good at 1300' in NH, when you're coming from the NYC area.

Rindge could lay a complete egg this winter and he'll still love it. 50-60" of snow and a lot of snowpack would be a great winter where he is coming from.

[Snowstorms]

I just don't see why people in New England are getting worried; I'd be concerned in the Mid-Atlantic just because the Niña is strengthening, but farther north looks fine. Low solar/-QBO usually leads to an early stratospheric warming if you've read the Holton-Tan stuff and the work based on it, the -PDO is a cold signal for North America in the winter, we've seen the continuation of record NAO blocking this summer, and almost all our weak Niña/negative-neutral winters have been snowy. The analogs for a weak -ENSO since 1950 are: 50-51 (poor winter), 56-57 (decent winter), 59-60 (decent winter), 60-61 (huge winter), 61-62 (cold winter), 62-63 (cold winter), 66-67 (snowy winter, cold second half), 71-72 (decent winter), 74-75 (mediocre winter), 80-81 (good interior winter) 83-84 (good winter with record cold), 85-86 (mediocre), 95-96 (record snowy winter), 00-01 (cold and snowy winter), 05-06 (mediocre winter except Dec 05), 08-09 (cold and snowy winter)....

The analogs that I prefer for this upcoming Winter season are listed below;

2008-09, 2000-01, 1995-96, 1977-78(NAO/AO pattern) 1974-75, 1971-72, 1967-68, 1966-67. 1964-65, 1956-57, 1954-55 and 1917-18 (SOI).

The closest and most recent analogue is 2008-09 at this point, though given the SST's across the ENSO regions were cooler than 2008 now. I have a nice post on Low Solar Years on my blog,

http://weatherintoro...r-and-enso.html

2008-09, 2000-01, 1977-78, 1971-72 and 1964-65 were awesome Winters in my region. Though most analogs above suggest blocking given the -QBO and Low Solar influence.

[nzucker]

I'm not worried much either at this point...although I can see why you're all giddy..lol. Every winter is good at 1300' in NH, when you're coming from the NYC area.

Remember I did live in Vermont for the better part of 4 years. We had above average snowfall every single year I was at Middlebury; even though the campus only averages 60-65" historically, I think we averaged a bit over 70"/season when I was a student there. 08-09 was a particularly snowy winter with around 83" falling at Midd, and we also had a much better winter than most in the North Country in 09-10 because we received 20" on the 1/3/2010 retrograde event due to low-level convergence over the Champlain Valley from the due north winds funneling between the Greens and Adirondacks, creating enhancement.

I've also seen some pretty snowy winters in Dobbs...I was a freshman in HS for 02-03 when the town recorded 55", and I think my house had a bit more at 350' elevation because the XMAS 2002 storm was quite elevation dependent. I also drove home for 2/10/10 and 2/25, seeing this:

Hmm....the blocking dissipated come February/March as the pattern turned more like a Nina. The extreme West-based blocking last December lead to a slow development of the Sea Ice esp. across Hudson Bay. The ECMWF suggest a similar pattern across the North though the warm anomalies across the South don't make sense.

Yes, Hudson Bay had a record late freeze in Winter 10-11.

The warm anomalies across the South do make sense in a Niña; the lack of a STJ creates above average heights across the Southern Tier, and the lack of precipitation means sunny days in an area that tends to have a high sun angle even in winter.

BTW, I like how you're thinking about 77-78 even though it was a weak Niño. The ECM monthlies look quite similar with the block oriented over the Canadian Archipelago, although 77-78 had a slightly better pattern because the block migrated towards AK on occasion and thus eliminated the strong -PNA that the Euro monthlies are showing. Here is the composite:

[ORH_wxman]

Remember I did live in Vermont for the better part of 4 years. We had above average snowfall every single year I was at Middlebury; even though the campus only averages 60-65" historically, I think we averaged a bit over 70"/season when I was a student there. 08-09 was a particularly snowy winter with around 83" falling at Midd, and we also had a much better winter than most in the North Country in 09-10 because we received 20" on the 1/3/2010 retrograde event due to low-level convergence over the Champlain Valley from the due north winds funneling between the Greens and Adirondacks, creating enhancement.

Yeah but Middlebury is terrible compared to Rindge. An average Middlebury season would be a rotten egg in Rindge. Even ORH does better than Middlebury. Not that Middlebury is bad overall, but its deceptively bad relative to the area its in. Rindge is better than Burlington, VT for winter weather.

[H2Otown_WX]

Remember I did live in Vermont for the better part of 4 years. We had above average snowfall every single year I was at Middlebury; even though the campus only averages 60-65" historically, I think we averaged a bit over 70"/season when I was a student there. 08-09 was a particularly snowy winter with around 83" falling at Midd, and we also had a much better winter than most in the North Country in 09-10 because we received 20" on the 1/3/2010 retrograde event due to low-level convergence over the Champlain Valley from the due north winds funneling between the Greens and Adirondacks, creating enhancement.

I've also seen some pretty snowy winters in Dobbs...I was a freshman in HS for 02-03 when the town recorded 55", and I think my house had a bit more at 350' elevation because the XMAS 2002 storm was quite elevation dependent. I also drove home for 2/10/10 and 2/25, seeing this:

Yes, Hudson Bay had a record late freeze in Winter 10-11.

The warm anomalies across the South do make sense in a Niña; the lack of a STJ creates above average heights across the Southern Tier, and the lack of precipitation means sunny days in an area that tends to have a high sun angle even in winter.

BTW, I like how you're thinking about 77-78 even though it was a weak Niño. The ECM monthlies look quite similar with the block oriented over the Canadian Archipelago, although 77-78 had a slightly better pattern because the block migrated towards AK on occasion and thus eliminated the strong -PNA that the Euro monthlies are showing. Here is the composite:

I think Xmas '02 was more longitude dependent than anything else. You received double my total even though I'm probably 40 or 45 miles farther north. I'm not sure how places northeast of me fared but it was a coastal hugger so I don't think they did all that well.

[H2Otown_WX]

I think Xmas '02 was more longitude dependent than anything else. You received double my total even though I'm probably 40 or 45 miles farther north. I'm not sure how places northeast of me fared but it was a coastal hugger so I don't think they did all that well.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/DE270202 I stand corrected, it does look like it was elevation dependent up in Mass. and NE CT.

[ORH_wxman]

http://www.erh.noaa....owrpts/DE270202 I stand corrected, it does look like it was elevation dependent up in Mass. and NE CT.

It was not all elevation dependent in NE CT...sleet affected it based on how far SE you were.

[H2Otown_WX]

It was not all elevation dependent in NE CT...sleet affected it based on how far SE you were.

Is that Rindge under the 16" circle?

[nzucker]

Is that Rindge under the 16" circle?

No, the school is much closer to the Mass border.

[ORH_wxman]

Is that Rindge under the 16" circle?

Its very close to the 12.5" mark SW of the 16" circle.

[ORH_wxman]

Its not totally uncommon for Rindge to lose to ORH as Jerry suggested in the August nor' easter thread. but here are the recent years where my area actually did better than Rindge:

2010-2011: 98.3" (Rindge: ~82")

2005-2006: 70.3" (Rindge: ~60") (both of these recent years I used my own total, but the ORH total would have beaten them too...the previous years are all ORH airport totals)

2002-2003: 117.3" (Rindge: ~115" but they may have narrowly beaten ORH...Ashburnham had 110", but I do not think Rindge had more than 7" more that year based on the data)

2004-2005: 114.3" (Rindge: ~100")

1993-1994: 100.2" (Rindge: ~95")

1992-1993: 120.1" (Rindge: 115" mostly because they missed the monster jackpot of the December 1992 storm)

So that's 6 times in the last 20 winters...but that was probably pretty anomalous. I'd guess the real average is probably more like 3 or 4 times in 20 years. Also, the margin of victory in ORH over Rindge is usually fairly small as shown...but Rindge can routinely beat ORH by 20"+ which is why the average a foot more on an annual basis.