Winter 2011-2012

[CoastalWx]

We should know in the next month to 6 weeks if this is going to definitely be a La Nina or screw around as a negative neutral. I think it continues to point the arrow more toward La Nina with each passing week.

Agreed. I don't think there's much of a question now. Even if we get a burst or two of winds winds trying to come near the dateline...those cooling sub-surfaces are a signal right there. It still wouldn't shock me if 3.4 tries to get near like -0.9C for a trimonthly period, but I don't think it will be a mdt event. The progression of it doesn't seem too far off from '08.

[OKpowdah]

Regardless of what this turns out to be "officially", definitely looks like a weak La Nina returning is likely. I don't think this will get to moderate. Also regardless of the status, we can count on a La Nina atmospheric regime for the winter

Easterly QBO is starting to descend more steadily now, and that should have some effect of tempering cooling a bit.

[SoCoWx]

Regardless of what this turns out to be "officially", definitely looks like a weak La Nina returning is likely. I don't think this will get to moderate. Also regardless of the status, we can count on a La Nina atmospheric regime for the winter

Easterly QBO is starting to descend more steadily now, and that should have some effect of tempering cooling a bit.

So would this imply a +NAO/AO, -PNA, no STJ, +EPO, etc?

[ORH_wxman]

So would this imply a +NAO/AO, -PNA, no STJ, +EPO, etc?

It would imply a north Pacific ridge, -PNA, and probable lack of STJ....as for the +AO/NAO, it does not imply that at all. NAO/AO state at this moment could go either way.

[nzucker]

It would imply a north Pacific ridge, -PNA, and probable lack of STJ....as for the +AO/NAO, it does not imply that at all. NAO/AO state at this moment could go either way.

We've seen plenty of stronger Niña winters with blocking such as 55-56, 70-71, and 10-11. The strength of the Niña does not necessarily influence how much blocking we get, although it's harder to warm the stratosphere with limited ozone transport in a -ENSO regime, so that does make a sudden stratospheric warming slightly less likely, though by no means impossible.

Although the high-latitude blocking and Atlantic side may be hard to predict, we're starting to get a better idea that we'll see an Aleutian ridge this winter with a -PNA; given the ENSO circulations and the distribution of SST anomalies with extremely warm waters near the Aleutians and colder waters along the California/AK coastline, it would be difficult to imagine anything else. The amplitude of the Aleutian ridge and whether it can pinch off the PV when combined with NAO blocking is one thing still to be determined.

[CoastalWx]

We've seen plenty of stronger Niña winters with blocking such as 55-56, 70-71, and 10-11. The strength of the Niña does not necessarily influence how much blocking we get, although it's harder to warm the stratosphere with limited ozone transport in a -ENSO regime, so that does make a sudden stratospheric warming slightly less likely, though by no means impossible.

Although the high-latitude blocking and Atlantic side may be hard to predict, we're starting to get a better idea that we'll see an Aleutian ridge this winter with a -PNA; given the ENSO circulations and the distribution of SST anomalies with extremely warm waters near the Aleutians and colder waters along the California/AK coastline, it would be difficult to imagine anything else. The amplitude of the Aleutian ridge and whether it can pinch off the PV when combined with NAO blocking is one thing still to be determined.

I think you can also argue that if we have an Aleutian ridge, the resulting wave pattern could argue for blocking in the NAO region. It doesn't have to happen, but it's not hard to see how that's possible too. You don't want ridging too far west in the Aleutians, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Polar indexes will be pivotal...as usual.

[nzucker]

I think you can also argue that if we have an Aleutian ridge, the resulting wave pattern could argue for blocking in the NAO region. It doesn't have to happen, but it's not hard to see how that's possible too. You don't want ridging too far west in the Aleutians, though.

It depends...sometimes we can have an amplified Aleutian/Kamchatka ridge, then a downstream trough over North America, causing rising heights over Greenland. This tends to happen if the Aleutian High is more amplified and becomes part of a polar blocking regime. As you say though, it's easy to get into trouble with the Aleutian ridge being flatter and more displaced to the west; this leads to low heights over the EPO region, and thus southerly flow into much of North America, with the polar vortex retreating to the higher latitudes of Siberia or the North Pole. We saw how an Aleutian ridge, when poorly placed, can really cut off our cold air source in 98-99 and 99-00; the record warm winters were caused by a combination of the poor position of the PV and anomalous westerly/zonal flow into North America from the Pacific. We also have winters like 56-57, a Niña following a stronger Niña in a -PDO, when we got a decent orientation of the Aleutian ridge but the PV set up too far north in Canada, resulting in cold air only penetrating the extreme Northern Tier with a strong SE ridge. Despite the PV being on the North American side of the globe, some parts of the Southeast were +7 for the winter!

[ORH_wxman]

Polar indexes will be pivotal...as usual.

They usually are. But sometimes we get away with crappy polar index numbers like 2007-2008 and 1975-1976. We're much more likely to get away with them during a La Nina than an El Nino which is the good news if the dice come up a couple turds for the NAO/AO this winter.

[CoastalWx]

It depends...sometimes we can have an amplified Aleutian/Kamchatka ridge, then a downstream trough over North America, causing rising heights over Greenland. This tends to happen if the Aleutian High is more amplified and becomes part of a polar blocking regime. As you say though, it's easy to get into trouble with the Aleutian ridge being flatter and more displaced to the west; this leads to low heights over the EPO region, and thus southerly flow into much of North America, with the polar vortex retreating to the higher latitudes of Siberia or the North Pole. We saw how an Aleutian ridge, when poorly placed, can really cut off our cold air source in 98-99 and 99-00; the record warm winters were caused by a combination of the poor position of the PV and anomalous westerly/zonal flow into North America from the Pacific. We also have winters like 56-57, a Niña following a stronger Niña in a -PDO, when we got a decent orientation of the Aleutian ridge but the PV set up too far north in Canada, resulting in cold air only penetrating the extreme Northern Tier with a strong SE ridge. Despite the PV being on the North American side of the globe, some parts of the Southeast were +7 for the winter!

Yeah exactly..it depends where and how strong, but it's possible for a positive feedback in the right place. Even a NAO block can be poorly misplaced and not mean much...or overpowered by the death vortex in the Bering Sea.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm just happy it's another longitudinal winter and not latitudinal...Should be another blockbuster for those inland and west

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm just happy it's another longitudinal winter and not latitudinal...Should be another blockbuster for those inland and west

You've been trying too hard of late...not as funny.

[Damage In Tolland]

You've been trying too hard of late...not as funny.

Interesting since I'm being dead serious.

[40/70 Benchmark]

They usually are. But sometimes we get away with crappy polar index numbers like 2007-2008 and 1975-1976. We're much more likely to get away with them during a La Nina than an El Nino which is the good news if the dice come up a couple turds for the NAO/AO this winter.

You never want to risk that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting since I'm being dead serious.

[nzucker]

Yeah exactly..it depends where and how strong, but it's possible for a positive feedback in the right place. Even a NAO block can be poorly misplaced and not mean much...or overpowered by the death vortex in the Bering Sea.

54-55 was a first-year moderate Niña that had a -NAO but was mostly disappointing for the East Coast. The NAO block didn't gain much latitude compared to the large vortex over the Beaufort Sea, and the result was fairly warm temperatures in the CONUS with little snowfall for the major cities.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah its usually El Ninos that have a better shot at screwing the coast more and render latitude more moot. La Nina (esp with -QBO) tend to have much more latitudinal influence on snowfall. Even years like 2000-2001 which hammered the interior the most still threw you a bone for latitude with March 2001 (both events there) and gave you a seasonal total that likely still beat Kevin's area.

[nzucker]

They usually are. But sometimes we get away with crappy polar index numbers like 2007-2008 and 1975-1976. We're much more likely to get away with them during a La Nina than an El Nino which is the good news if the dice come up a couple turds for the NAO/AO this winter.

Interestingly, 56-57 had a somewhat similar pattern to 07-08 with the vortex in Western Canada and a crappy NAO, but the result was not as good:

[ORH_wxman]

Interestingly, 56-57 had a somewhat similar pattern to 07-08 with the vortex in Western Canada and a crappy NAO, but the result was not as good:

Funny part is BOS had identical snowfall totals each winter. 52.0" on the nose.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah its usually El Ninos that have a better shot at screwing the coast more and render latitude more moot. La Nina (esp with -QBO) tend to have much more latitudinal influence on snowfall. Even years like 2000-2001 which hammered the interior the most still threw you a bone for latitude with March 2001 (both events there) and gave you a seasonal total that likely still beat Kevin's area.

How come you always want Ray to beat me? Do you like him better?

[CoastalWx]

Interestingly, 56-57 had a somewhat similar pattern to 07-08 with the vortex in Western Canada and a crappy NAO, but the result was not as good:

Look how cold Canada is. I'll take that if I can have 1040 highs allowing me S+ with screaming east winds.

[nzucker]

Funny part is BOS had identical snowfall totals each winter. 52.0" on the nose.

Temperatures were near average as you got further north in 56-57, so I'm not surprised Boston did much better than NYC, where it was a poor winter. I'm sure it was fine in Rindge as well....There were actually some solid cold anomalies over the Northern Plains from the PV sitting over Canada and bringing lower heights to those regions, but I'd be scared of the SE ridge. Just like 07-08, the cold air basically sat near the Canadian border and didn't move an inch. With analogs like 56-57, 71-72, 00-01, and 08-09, we're definitely getting a solid signal for a strong snowfall gradient. Whether the coast does decently like 00-01, or horribly like 07-08, is still up for grabs....but none of these analogs have southern areas doing as well as northern areas. I'm really glad I'm moving to NH in a few weeks.

[nzucker]

Look how cold Canada is. I'll take that if I can have 1040 highs allowing me S+ with screaming east winds.

That's a crappy pattern for major Nor'easters, however. You can't get a storm to eject at a decent latitude with that much SE ridging, and the NAO is absolutely horrid with a strong Icelandic low. Your area would do OK, but Dobbs Ferry would be screwed. I'll be home for a decent amount of the winter considering XMAS break is over a month and there's another break in February, so I have to consider if the pattern bodes well for NYC as well.

[CoastalWx]

That's a crappy pattern for major Nor'easters, however. You can't get a storm to eject at a decent latitude with that much SE ridging, and the NAO is absolutely horrid with a strong Icelandic low. Your area would do OK, but Dobbs Ferry would be screwed. I'll be home for a decent amount of the winter considering XMAS break is over a month and there's another break in February, so I have to consider if the pattern bodes well for NYC as well.

No, you would tend to get the quick 6-12hr hit and run deals, unless the pattern relaxes briefly. But, snow is snow...so I'll take what I can get.

[Damage In Tolland]

That's a crappy pattern for major Nor'easters, however. You can't get a storm to eject at a decent latitude with that much SE ridging, and the NAO is absolutely horrid with a strong Icelandic low. Your area would do OK, but Dobbs Ferry would be screwed. I'll be home for a decent amount of the winter considering XMAS break is over a month and there's another break in February, so I have to consider if the pattern bodes well for NYC as well.

Aren't they always?

[ORH_wxman]

Temperatures were near average as you got further north in 56-57, so I'm not surprised Boston did much better than NYC, where it was a poor winter. I'm sure it was fine in Rindge as well....There were actually some solid cold anomalies over the Northern Plains from the PV sitting over Canada and bringing lower heights to those regions, but I'd be scared of the SE ridge. Just like 07-08, the cold air basically sat near the Canadian border and didn't move an inch. With analogs like 56-57, 71-72, 00-01, and 08-09, we're definitely getting a solid signal for a strong snowfall gradient. Whether the coast does decently like 00-01, or horribly like 07-08, is still up for grabs....but none of these analogs have southern areas doing as well as northern areas. I'm really glad I'm moving to NH in a few weeks.

The Ashburnham Coop at 1,110 feet just south of Rindge had 92.2" of snow in '56-'57, so yeah, it was a very good winter there.

[CoastalWx]

The Ashburnham Coop at 1,110 feet just south of Rindge had 92.2" of snow in '56-'57, so yeah, it was a very good winter there.

You and Nate are going to be nude in socks....taking pics of the snowpack being glaciated by ZR. You'll have that in common.

[ORH_wxman]

How come you always want Ray to beat me? Do you like him better?

Because it bothers you a lot more when you get less than him than when its vice-versa.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The Ashburnham Coop at 1,110 feet just south of Rindge had 92.2" of snow in '56-'57, so yeah, it was a very good winter there.

JJASHB would be pleased

[nzucker]

Aren't they always?

Um no....we got 68" last year and 70" this winter. Those are very respectable totals at 340' elevation less than 10 miles from NYC. How did you do in 09-10, Blizz? Did you enjoy reporting +RA at 50/50 in the 2/25 storm? I bet you did!

The Ashburnham Coop at 1,110 feet just south of Rindge had 92.2" of snow in '56-'57, so yeah, it was a very good winter there.

How did Ashburnham do in 70-71 and 00-01? I know you said they had around 100" in 07-08, but what about the other analogs? 55-56?

You and Nate are going to be nude in socks....taking pics of the snowpack being glaciated by ZR. You'll have that in common.

I can't wait....I am going to have SO much snow. I really hope tube socks are included in my contract.