Winter 2011-2012

[nzucker]

Well I believe the typical lag is 2-3 months for ENSO affecting our patterns here and that's been researched...but of course, if ENSO is weak, then its influence on the pattern is weak. Its why we care where ENSO is in October/November and don't really care anymore during the actual winter months...esp after New Years.

You seem to be leaning warmer with more of a SE ridge than I am. What analogs are you considering? 70-71?

[ORH_wxman]

You seem to be leaning warmer with more of a SE ridge than I am. What analogs are you considering? 70-71?

I don't think we are going to see a potent SE ridge...but a weak one would not surprise me. It would depend how potent this La Nina gets. If it stays pretty weak, then I'd probably only lean toward a very weak SE ridge kind of like what we saw in 2008-2009. If its stronger, then I might be more prone to lean like a '70-71 or '07-'08.

The NAO though is always the wildcard. If we have an extreme blocking period setting up again, then it can overwhelm the other factors.

[A-L-E-X]

I don't think we are going to see a potent SE ridge...but a weak one would not surprise me. It would depend how potent this La Nina gets. If it stays pretty weak, then I'd probably only lean toward a very weak SE ridge kind of like what we saw in 2008-2009. If its stronger, then I might be more prone to lean like a '70-71 or '07-'08.

The NAO though is always the wildcard. If we have an extreme blocking period setting up again, then it can overwhelm the other factors.

Huge tug of war between the NAO and ENSO? Which has more of an affect on our weather, all other factors being equal? I would think a strong and consistent NAO would dominate the pattern as long as ENSO didnt reach strong status.

[nzucker]

I don't think we are going to see a potent SE ridge...but a weak one would not surprise me. It would depend how potent this La Nina gets. If it stays pretty weak, then I'd probably only lean toward a very weak SE ridge kind of like what we saw in 2008-2009. If its stronger, then I might be more prone to lean like a '70-71 or '07-'08.

The NAO though is always the wildcard. If we have an extreme blocking period setting up again, then it can overwhelm the other factors.

I think 08-09 is a better analog for this winter than 70-71, but then again we do have to consider the -QBO/Niña combination which might favor a bigger gradient in snowfall.

I'm obviously leaning towards a pretty strong -NAO given the indications this summer, although you can never feel completely confident in Greenland blocking overpowering the SE ridge when you issue a forecast, especially if we get into moderate Niña territory and thus have to throw in analogs like 70-71 and 07-08. I do feel that the second/third year of the NIña tends to be better on the coast when the ENSO event is fairly strong, so analogs like 00-01 and 08-09 tend to be on the list for me. 71-72 and 55-56, or even 56-57, are also among my analogs.

[ORH_wxman]

Huge tug of war between the NAO and ENSO? Which has more of an affect on our weather, all other factors being equal? I would think a strong and consistent NAO would dominate the pattern as long as ENSO didnt reach strong status.

If you are talking just temperatures, a strong -NAO will dominate easily. For stuff like snowstorms, its a bit different. DC and Baltimore have a hard time getting big snowstorms without a STJ which is absent in most La Ninas. So they can end up with cold (but not very snowy) winters like last year, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, etc when you get a -NAO during a Nina but the ENSO still makes it difficult to generate snowy pattens there. Further north, it matters less for snowstorms since the northern stream dominated jet pattern will affect the north easier.

[nzucker]

If you are talking just temperatures, a strong -NAO will dominate easily. For stuff like snowstorms, its a bit different. DC and Baltimore have a hard time getting big snowstorms without a STJ which is absent in most La Ninas. So they can end up with cold (but not very snowy) winters like last year, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, etc when you get a -NAO during a Nina but the ENSO still makes it difficult to generate snowy pattens there. Further north, it matters less for snowstorms since the northern stream dominated jet pattern will affect the north easier.

There was certainly a north-south gradient for the big snows last year, but you have to remember that many places in NC/SC/GA did well with the 12/26 event and then the 1/11 Gulf Low that eventually evolved into our Nor'easter when it fused with a northern stream shortwave over the OH Valley. Pointing to the low snowfall totals in DC/BWI can obfuscate the picture because many places like RIC and RDU had decent snowfalls, especially considering the climo for a strong Niña in the Lower Mid-Atlantic. It's easy to pick DC and Baltimore as two examples of strong Niña climo trumping the -NAO in terms of snowfall totals, but one has to consider the Deep South/Lower Mid-Atlantic, as well.

Of course, I agree with your general idea that a -NAO means more for temperatures than snowfall when combined with a mediocre Pacific. As long as places like DCA and RIC maintain northerly flow off a Canadian block, they will experience below average temperatures. Things become a bit more complicated as you head further north where the availability of arctic air is also a factor...the +EPO/-NAO can produce well above average temperatures in New England as I experienced in Vermont during Winter 09-10. With the block shifting towards Hudson Bay and a lack of cold air being infused by the Pacific side, it's hard to hit single digits every night. Of course, another factor is the strong Niño which creates a lot of cloudiness and thus above average nighttime temperatures since the storm track is hyperactive. We dealt with a lot of systems in 09-10 in Middlebury.

[nzucker]

70-71 was a good example of a winter with a -NAO/-QBO/moderate Niña. We had these temperature anomalies:

But these snowfall totals:

DCA: 11.7"

BWI: 13.0"

NYC: 15.5"

BOS: 57.3"

Boston had a nice winter while everyone else saw a few dry clippers..

[ORH_wxman]

There was certainly a north-south gradient for the big snows last year, but you have to remember that many places in NC/SC/GA did well with the 12/26 event and then the 1/11 Gulf Low that eventually evolved into our Nor'easter when it fused with a northern stream shortwave over the OH Valley. Pointing to the low snowfall totals in DC/BWI can obfuscate the picture because many places like RIC and RDU had decent snowfalls, especially considering the climo for a strong Niña in the Lower Mid-Atlantic. It's easy to pick DC and Baltimore as two examples of strong Niña climo trumping the -NAO in terms of snowfall totals, but one has to consider the Deep South/Lower Mid-Atlantic, as well.

Of course, I agree with your general idea that a -NAO means more for temperatures than snowfall when combined with a mediocre Pacific. As long as places like DCA and RIC maintain northerly flow off a Canadian block, they will experience below average temperatures. Things become a bit more complicated as you head further north where the availability of arctic air is also a factor...the +EPO/-NAO can produce well above average temperatures in New England as I experienced in Vermont during Winter 09-10. With the block shifting towards Hudson Bay and a lack of cold air being infused by the Pacific side, it's hard to hit single digits every night. Of course, another factor is the strong Niño which creates a lot of cloudiness and thus above average nighttime temperatures since the storm track is hyperactive. We dealt with a lot of systems in 09-10 in Middlebury.

DC/BWI got a bit screwed last year even considering the Nina....but the point about Ninas still stands. Look at the other big -NAO/Nina winters and find the big snowfall years...you really won't find any. Also the NC (esp eastern half) region doesn't necessarily suffer as much as DC/BWI relative to climo in a cold Nina because polar jet dominated storms will track quickly eastward and they can sometime catch the NW quadrant of them before they escape E. Late bloomers to the southeast...their big snowfall years are not skewed heavily toward El Nino as they are for most of VA/MD/DE/NJ S of 40N.

[OKpowdah]

I don't post or comment all that often, but I like your work and hope you continue to pursue it. Trust me, the energy space could use folks who can do long range stuff, and in order to make money, it's not even that you have to be right every time, but it's more about being right more than wrong versus the competition. If you can learn enough to do that, mucho dinero can be made.

Thanks Brian!! Right now, I'm just trying to find some professors who are researching in this area; a few at CSU and UW Madison, otherwise, not the easiest search

Kudos Brian, great post and so very true, Sam has the goods.

Thanks man! I mean, we'll see... lol

[nzucker]

DC/BWI got a bit screwed last year even considering the Nina....but the point about Ninas still stands. Look at the other big -NAO/Nina winters and find the big snowfall years...you really won't find any. Also the NC (esp eastern half) region doesn't necessarily suffer as much as DC/BWI relative to climo in a cold Nina because polar jet dominated storms will track quickly eastward and they can sometime catch the NW quadrant of them before they escape E. Late bloomers to the southeast...their big snowfall years are not skewed heavily toward El Nino as they are for most of VA/MD/DE/NJ S of 40N.

That's true...sometimes NC and the SC/GA mtns. do OK in a strong Niña because you get clippers and suppressed storms that hit these areas. Look at 88-89 for the suppression thing...Norfolk, VA right on the SE coast had 24.4" in Feb 1989, although that wasn't a big -NAO winter. That's the highest February snowfall total record for ORF, and that alone would make a season at that latitude and elevation. It does seem particularly hard for BWI/DCA to hit the polar jet storms. It's really impossible to think of any big La Niña winters down there except for maybe 1917-18, which was a weak Niña in a different age climatologically.

At the same time, the models 24 hours out had BWI/DCA receiving substantial QPF from the Boxing Day Blizzard. That was actually a Miller A in a strong Niña that should have hit them, but they were unfortunate and missed almost all the snow as ORF and NJ got nailed. They also were progged for a bit more in the 1/27 storm at times but only ended up with like 4-6"...So I'd chalk it up to mostly bad luck rather than the luck of STJ since the opportunities were not far away.

[nzucker]

Thanks Brian!! Right now, I'm just trying to find some professors who are researching in this area; a few at CSU and UW Madison, otherwise, not the easiest search

Thanks man! I mean, we'll see... lol

Yeah, I'm so excited by the research you are doing, love hearing your thoughts on here. I am not a meteorologist but the long-range predictions fascinate me, and I have done pretty well with fairly successful forecasts in Winter 09-10 and Summer 2011.

Here were my preliminary thoughts for this coming winter, will revise this map a few times for sure:

Being a big believer in the power of the -NAO, and the summer/winter correlation, I almost want to put the biggest departures in the Southeast. But at the same time, given the strengthening Niña and the general -ENSO/-AAM circulation that we've seen, I am hesitant. I could see this turning into a cold/snowy winter for the Northern Tier with an amplified Aleutian ridge bleeding into Kamchatka/Siberia.

[ORH_wxman]

That's true...sometimes NC and the SC/GA mtns. do OK in a strong Niña because you get clippers and suppressed storms that hit these areas. Look at 88-89 for the suppression thing...Norfolk, VA right on the SE coast had 24.4" in Feb 1989, although that wasn't a big -NAO winter. That's the highest February snowfall total record for ORF, and that alone would make a season at that latitude and elevation. It does seem particularly hard for BWI/DCA to hit the polar jet storms. It's really impossible to think of any big La Niña winters down there except for maybe 1917-18, which was a weak Niña in a different age climatologically.

At the same time, the models 24 hours out had BWI/DCA receiving substantial QPF from the Boxing Day Blizzard. That was actually a Miller A in a strong Niña that should have hit them, but they were unfortunate and missed almost all the snow as ORF and NJ got nailed. They also were progged for a bit more in the 1/27 storm at times but only ended up with like 4-6"...So I'd chalk it up to mostly bad luck rather than the luck of STJ since the opportunities were not far away.

They were probably a bit unlucky last year, but it looks like that a lot down there in Ninas...they barely miss out on Miller Bs and fast moving Miller As...so it "looks" bad/unlucky, but its easy whiff when polar jet is dominating everything.

Still you can get years like '95-'96 when they actually do hit...specifically Jan '96 which had no STJ. The Feb '96 activity was assisted by the STJ getting active.

Regardless, the main point is obviously that ENSO is very important for snow in certain regions, and in other regions it is not and other factors need to be looked at.

[nzucker]

They were probably a bit unlucky last year, but it looks like that a lot down there in Ninas...they barely miss out on Miller Bs and fast moving Miller As...so it "looks" bad/unlucky, but its easy whiff when polar jet is dominating everything.

Still you can get years like '95-'96 when they actually do hit...specifically Jan '96 which had no STJ. The Feb '96 activity was assisted by the STJ getting active.

Regardless, the main point is obviously that ENSO is very important for snow in certain regions, and in other regions it is not and other factors need to be looked at.

I was thinking that ENSO was really important for NYC but then Winter 10-11 came along. NYC got 60" of snow in a very unfavorable ENSO state, so that needs to be examined.

I also thought that the 09-10 strong El Niño, due to its ozone transport and stratospheric warming impact, was the reason we saw the huge -NAO block that winter. Now I'm starting to think that the low solar cycle is playing a bigger role than initially considered....we've gone through most ENSO states, and yet the Greenland block has persisted. If you compare 500mb maps for Winter 09-10 and Winter 10-11, the 500mb map is virtually the same.

[ORH_wxman]

I was thinking that ENSO was really important for NYC but then Winter 10-11 came along. NYC got 60" of snow in a very unfavorable ENSO state, so that needs to be examined.

I also thought that the 09-10 strong El Niño, due to its ozone transport and stratospheric warming impact, was the reason we saw the huge -NAO block that winter. Now I'm starting to think that the low solar cycle is playing a bigger role than initially considered....we've gone through most ENSO states, and yet the Greenland block has persisted.

Well for NYC, El Nino is still better, but they can do well in La Nina when you get a -NAO...'08-'09 was around average, last year was huge, and '00-'01 was above average...but you can still be screwed too like '70-'71 and '64-'65.

The reason potent Nina is usually bad there is because you rarely get big -NAO blocks during those. Potent Nina up here is not great...slightly below average, but some years we get away with the potent Nina/+NAO combo such as 2007-2008, 1975-1976, and 1971-1972.

[nzucker]

Well for NYC, El Nino is still better, but they can do well in La Nina when you get a -NAO...'08-'09 was around average, last year was huge, and '00-'01 was above average...but you can still be screwed too like '70-'71 and '64-'65.

The reason potent Nina is usually bad there is because you rarely get big -NAO blocks during those. Potent Nina up here is not great...slightly below average, but some years we get away with the potent Nina/+NAO combo such as 2007-2008, 1975-1976, and 1971-1972.

75-76 was another winter that ended better for New England than NYC, but that was a stronger Niña than we'll face this year. And with a more +NAO. It's always possible for you guys to escape if we have cold air bleeding into the Northern Tier with a vortex over Western Canada or even Eastern AK, which happens a bunch in Niñas. It also happened in the El Niño winter of 68-69. 07-08 was the perfect example of the arctic cold pushing into the northern states, allowing your area to stay snow for a while on most of the plethora of SW Flow events we had that year, despite a big SE ridge. As long as we don't get the +EPO of death with a huge vortex over the Bering Strait, which causes way above normal temperatures in Canada, New England will probably be OK. I don't see that pattern being too much of a problem given the warm SSTs near the Aleutians and the -PDO decadal regime. That should signal more of an Aleutian ridge, keeping heights relatively high in that area.

We are really on new ground with the NAO, and that makes forecasting difficult. We haven't had a comparable solar minimum since the 1800s, so we don't have a ton of data.

[HM]

.

Its hard to say just how much of a "hangover" effect can occur in a more neutralish year...its hard to quantify it, but it certainly makes more physical sense that you'd have a better chance of that in a weaker or neutral ENSO than a potent one like we had this past winter.

Likely one possible way an old ENSO regime can affect the next is through wave propagation. If you had a decent El Niño in the winter prior and went neutral, it is very possible that the wave frequency will be similar but at a less amplitude. There will still be this inherent "rhythm" in the Walker/Hadley cells, even if it is low-key. Of course, this is highly simplifying things and doesn't work always in the real world.

The STJ is all about the tropical forcing during the cold season, which is highly regulated by the MJO. Therefore, there is no way to quantify this process by simply looking at the season of interest's STJ character based off the previous ENSO event.

[CoastalWx]

Likely one possible way an old ENSO regime can affect the next is through wave propagation. If you had a decent El Niño in the winter prior and went neutral, it is very possible that the wave frequency will be similar but at a less amplitude. There will still be this inherent "rhythm" in the Walker/Hadley cells, even if it is low-key. Of course, this is highly simplifying things and doesn't work always in the real world.

The STJ is all about the tropical forcing during the cold season, which is highly regulated by the MJO. Therefore, there is no way to quantify this process by simply looking at the season of interest's STJ character based off the previous ENSO event.

Do you mean more or less, MJO wave propagation? Makes sense that the propagation wouldn't stop on a dime, just because it went neutral. SST's would probably still support the waves moving east..just perhaps not as potent.

[Ginx snewx]

When looking back historically on winters for the winter lover the standout number is the amount of snow which fell. Often I see folks talking about well in 19.... I received 99 inches so that must have been one of the best winters ever. The overall appeal of a great winter can be determined by the concept of snow depth days. Thought I would repost this link to allow some new members a chance to review what exactly snow depth days are and to look back in recent history to get an understanding of how much snow fell and how long it stuck around. My personal fetish is for extended cover with persistence. The great storms are instant gratification but quickly lose their appeal if they are washed/melted away. Others could care less and would rather a storm fall and melt away. When I think back to great winter stretches it is the snow on snow stretches I remember best, I am talking about winters overall not individual storms. http://www.wermenh.com/sdd/index.html

[CoastalWx]

When looking back historically on winters for the winter lover the standout number is the amount of snow which fell. Often I see folks talking about well in 19.... I received 99 inches so that must have been one of the best winters ever. The overall appeal of a great winter can be determined by the concept of snow depth days. Thought I would repost this link to allow some new members a chance to review what exactly snow depth days are and to look back in recent history to get an understanding of how much snow fell and how long it stuck around. My personal fetish is for extended cover with persistence. The great storms are instant gratification but quickly lose their appeal if they are washed/melted away. Others could care less and would rather a storm fall and melt away. When I think back to great winter stretches it is the snow on snow stretches I remember best, I am talking about winters overall not individual storms. http://www.wermenh.com/sdd/index.html

I've seen that site before. I wish some of those empty slots were filled, but pretty cool site.

[Ginx snewx]

I've seen that site before. I wish some of those empty slots were filled, but pretty cool site.

Yea last years ending is missing, just wanted to let the new guys see it.

[HM]

Do you mean more or less, MJO wave propagation? Makes sense that the propagation wouldn't stop on a dime, just because it went neutral. SST's would probably still support the waves moving east..just perhaps not as potent.

Well basically all propagating waves and their behavior. The circulation cells jump started by the ENSO event are not just going to collapse once the SST number drops below -0.5 and so the zonal waves (directed by the meridional circulations) will likely continue to exert a similar behavior. It was part of the reason why February 2006 behaved more like an El Niño than it did La Niña; although, there was a lot more to it (stratospheric warming event...but heck that is part of the El Niño-like atmosphere, too, along with the QBO).

[CoastalWx]

Well basically all propagating waves and their behavior. The circulation cells jump started by the ENSO event are not just going to collapse once the SST number drops below -0.5 and so the zonal waves (directed by the meridional circulations) will likely continue to exert a similar behavior. It was part of the reason why February 2006 behaved more like an El Niño than it did La Niña; although, there was a lot more to it (stratospheric warming event...but heck that is part of the El Niño-like atmosphere, too, along with the QBO).

Gotcha.

In any case, should be interesting then, going into a possible 2nd year Nina with a different QBO state, but possibly a -NAO one as well. The NAO state is not definite, but it seems there are some correlations to the summer time or August NAO state and the winter NAO state as well.

[OKpowdah]

Yeah, I'm so excited by the research you are doing, love hearing your thoughts on here. I am not a meteorologist but the long-range predictions fascinate me, and I have done pretty well with fairly successful forecasts in Winter 09-10 and Summer 2011.

Here were my preliminary thoughts for this coming winter, will revise this map a few times for sure:

Being a big believer in the power of the -NAO, and the summer/winter correlation, I almost want to put the biggest departures in the Southeast. But at the same time, given the strengthening Niña and the general -ENSO/-AAM circulation that we've seen, I am hesitant. I could see this turning into a cold/snowy winter for the Northern Tier with an amplified Aleutian ridge bleeding into Kamchatka/Siberia.

You have a great mind for the long range, and definitely have done well with your outlooks. Your prelim looks good to me!

[nzucker]

You have a great mind for the long range, and definitely have done well with your outlooks. Your prelim looks good to me!

Let's try to meet some weekend in NH....I know we've had our disputes in the past, but I would like to be friends as I am also an avid hiker and long-range thinker.

I spend a lot of time (when I'm not working 50hrs/wk, and my dedication to the weather is going on the back burner soon because of all the research I have to do for the curriculum as a teacher), I do ponder these atmospheric circulations and 500mb maps for past winters a lot.

[CoastalWx]

HM kind of raises a point that I've thought about. Even though we still are in a low solar ambient base state....will these little spurts of solar energy muck around with any high latutude blocking potential?

[ORH_wxman]

HM kind of raises a point that I've thought about. Even though we still are in a low solar ambient base state....will these little spurts of solar energy muck around with any high latutude blocking potential?

If only we had the ability to answer that with enough certainty to make any forecast on the NAO state. I would never forecast a huge 5 week block like last winter saw, but right now I'm probably in the camp that leans negative until we have a good reason to say it won't be. I'm not sure we have a good reason at the moment.

[CoastalWx]

If only we had the ability to answer that with enough certainty to make any forecast on the NAO state. I would never forecast a huge 5 week block like last winter saw, but right now I'm probably in the camp that leans negative until we have a good reason to say it won't be. I'm not sure we have a good reason at the moment.

I don't think there is a good reason either. Just wondering if that would have an impact..if at all. But then again, a -QBO is nice to have on our side as well.

[OKpowdah]

Let's try to meet some weekend in NH....I know we've had our disputes in the past, but I would like to be friends as I am also an avid hiker and long-range thinker.

I spend a lot of time (when I'm not working 50hrs/wk, and my dedication to the weather is going on the back burner soon because of all the research I have to do for the curriculum as a teacher), I do ponder these atmospheric circulations and 500mb maps for past winters a lot.

Yeah definitely! Let me know when you're all moved in up here, and we'll find some time that works

[OKpowdah]

I don't think there is a good reason either. Just wondering if that would have an impact..if at all. But then again, a -QBO is nice to have on our side as well.

I know next to nothing about solar stuff, sooo.... just ignoring it lol, but yeah I feel pretty good about a few extended -NAO periods this winter that average out to slightly negative

[CoastalWx]

I know next to nothing about solar stuff, sooo.... just ignoring it lol, but yeah I feel pretty good about a few extended -NAO periods this winter that average out to slightly negative

I don't have a good understand either, and neither does the rest of the community, so I try to take it in stride...but I think it does have an influence. Just trying to understand all these theories out there.