Logan11 Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Well we are entering an active solar cycle ...dunno if that would impact the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 For me personally the period from the end of the snow (March etc.) to around late June is just a disaster... dead ugly landscape with no snow cover anymore through late April, mud, mud, mud, then tree pollen, backdoors or early unpleasant heat waves, but rarely pleasant... Need I say more. LOL Thank god we are almost done with that stretch.... I hate the thought of it when it's getting toward late February and you see the end of winter coming into focus. That's why in an ideal world..I would like some snow events peppered around into early April. That's something that's been lacking...although the interior had a nice snow on 4/1 this year. Basically we were balls to the wall with snow until Feb 2. We then saw winter slowly die off. Around these parts (coastal SNE), February and sometimes even March is when we shine. Folks like Phil down on CC love February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Well we are entering an active solar cycle ...dunno if that would impact the winter. As far as I know, we are still in a relatively quiet period. There is also a 3 yr lag time..give or take with respect to temps responding at the surface. An active sun could stimulate the stratosphere, though I'm not totally sure how it would behave with a -QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 For me personally the period from the end of the snow (March etc.) to around late June is just a disaster... dead ugly landscape with no snow cover anymore through late April, mud, mud, mud, then tree pollen, backdoors or early unpleasant heat waves, but rarely pleasant... Need I say more. LOL Thank god we are almost done with that stretch.... I hate the thought of it when it's getting toward late February and you see the end of winter coming into focus. I actually love summer....don't like spring and am lukewarm about fall. Fall is pleasant temps wise but work ramps up big time and days shortening require acclimation. Winter is wonderful for the snow and only for the snow. Cold and dry is awful imo. Hot steamy summer days are uncomfortable but such a throwback to childhood to me that I like them. And when I'm on summer vaca, I need 85 or higher to make sure swimming is comfy. But Steve had his avatar statement about winter.....one of the best I've seen..... I've been doing some more research thanks to the challenges in the reponses to my early thoughts and one of the things that hangs in the balance is solar. It may not be as robust as I had thought and that would change things for me but from this point forward, my next real thoughts will probably come 2-3 months down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I actually love summer....don't like spring and am lukewarm about fall. Fall is pleasant temps wise but work ramps up big time and days shortening require acclimation. Winter is wonderful for the snow and only for the snow. Cold and dry is awful imo. Hot steamy summer days are uncomfortable but such a throwback to childhood to me that I like them. And when I'm on summer vaca, I need 85 or higher to make sure swimming is comfy. But Steve had his avatar statement about winter.....one of the best I've seen..... I've been doing some more research thanks to the challenges in the reponses to my early thoughts and one of the things that hangs in the balance is solar. It may not be as robust as I had thought and that would change things for me but from this point forward, my next real thoughts will probably come 2-3 months down the road. http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 69 in June of 2013. We are currently over two and a half years into Cycle 24. Three consecutive months with average daily sunspot numbers above 40 has raised the predicted maximum above the 64.2 for the Cycle 14 maximum in 1907. The predicted size would make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 It is an important indicator of solar activity because it tends to follow the changes in the solar ultraviolet that influence the Earth's upper atmosphere and ionosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 One thing I was wondering about with regard to "big picture" things that affect the global climate: solar cycles and volcanoes Assuming they do impact global climate (not sure about this, but I will play along), what is to say that New England specifically is the beneficiary of winter goodness? Why not Iowa, Siberia, or Italy? Or heck, Southern Hemisphere locales? Are they significant enough to seriously tweak some of the other large scale impactors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Stinker is not among the worst in history. eg: 20-22 inches in Boston is awful but there have been several worse in the past 20 years. (1994-5, 2001-02, 2006-07). Roughly in the "as bad" category would be 1991-92 and 1999-00. So it's not as rare as you think. 1. 2nd year Nina despite signs. Typically not good. 2. Weaker NAO or even positive. 3. Strengthening sun. 4. The law of averages. 3 of the past 4 have been decently above and one was suppressed due to NAO. To achieve 4 of 5, while possible and done in the past, odds are long. I think it happened only once or twice in the past 135 years. Best analogs, 2001-02 and 1999-00. Biggest weight 1999-00 which would produce a short intensefly cold and snowy period which will bring most of our snow and cold. I hope I'm wrong and again, June is too early to make this official. Indicies can change over the summer. I think part of the issue is that it's more difficult for my area to see a season featuring that large of a negative snowfall anomaly, then it is for yby to because I avg more.....that being said, my 5 year mean seasonal snowfall is only 4" greater than my 51 year seasonal mean, so the short term anomaly is not as glaring as you may think, at least not imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Nah you were late. You were mild until others chimed in. I'll recant if you can bumb some old eastern post. You're dreaming. Even if I thought it would be a bad Winter I would keep it to myself. Don't have time to comb the archives right now but your failing memory is unsettling. Try ginko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 You're dreaming. Even if I thought it would be a bad Winter I would keep it to myself. Don't have time to comb the archives right now but your failing memory is unsettling. Try ginko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 The winters that Jerry references either had a + QBO or a -QBO that was rising. The QBO for 1999-2000 was falling, but still in positive territory. As far as I know, we should have a descending QBO into the negative territory. That will help things out hopefully. The QBO is not everything, but nice to have on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 The winters that Jerry references either had a + QBO or a -QBO that was rising. The QBO for 1999-2000 was falling, but still in positive territory. As far as I know, we should have a descending QBO into the negative territory. That will help things out hopefully. The QBO is not everything, but nice to have on your side. I'm very confident that he is wrong....I'll just leave it at that. Yes, he was right last season, but relying on persistance to validate future outlooks is entirely unfounded and that is obvioiusly a minute sample size. I'm not necessarily calling for a huge winter either, but I'll bet against Boston seeing 20" or less.....I see nothing that warrants overwhelming pessimism at this remarkably early juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I'm very confident that he is wrong....I'll just leave it at that. Yes, he was right last season, but relying on persistance to validate future outlooks is entirely unfounded and obvioiusly a minute sample size. I'm just pointing out some things that are at least trying to help out. He could have the right idea..I don't know yet, but we'll just have to keep an eye on the Pacific and how the NAO looks in the next few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I hope I don't see less then 20"..lol. I just remember how miserable I was during those winters like '06-'07 and '94-'95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I really want an old fashioned March. I'm sick of 45 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I'm just pointing out some things that are at least trying to help out. He could have the right idea..I don't know yet, but we'll just have to keep an eye on the Pacific and how the NAO looks in the next few months. Referencing last season's success just doesn't cut it with me....that's akin to calling Sutton a helluva hitter because you saw him single to left last week. Now, if you want to show me a reasonably high verification rate over say 10 seasons or so, then that would instill a bit more confidence. Not trying to sh** on Jerry because he's probably as good as any of us amateurs, but I think his dire proclamation is premature in this instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Referencing last season's success just doesn't cut it with me....that's akin to calling Sutton a helluva hitter because you saw him single to left last week. Now, if you want to show me a reasonably high verification rate over say 10 seasons or so, then that would instill a bit more confidence. It seems so far away right now..lol. Hopefully we can pepper in some good severe events to make the summer active, followed by a tropical threat or two on the East Coast of Gulf. At least it helps make time go by faster when there is stuff to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 It seems so far away right now..lol. Hopefully we can pepper in some good severe events to make the summer active, followed by a tropical threat or two on the East Coast of Gulf. At least it helps make time go by faster when there is stuff to track. Yes.....keep the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Yes.....keep the former. Eh, it's interesting to track and see what happens. Nothing worse then a hot and dry summer with little action like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Eh, it's interesting to track and see what happens. Nothing worse then a hot and dry summer with little action like last year. 1) It's not interesting to me because 9\10 times I'm going to fail 2) That 1\10 instance in which I don't, 9\10 of those "wins" are going to leave me saturated with swampazz in a horrific envt. devoid of AC, lights and television because the 50 mph straight line robbed me of power. Keep it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 1) It's not interesting to me because 9\10 times I'm going to fail 2) That 1\10 instance in which I don't, 9\10 of those "wins" are going to leave me saturated with swampazz in a horrific envt. devoid of AC, lights and television because the 50 mph straight line robbed me of power. Keep it. LOL, or you can have "War of the Worlds" lightning bolts that have taken my power out. Anyways, different strokes for different folks, but tracking it with the potential have witnessing some good weather can be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Jerry is the man. He was going big winter when most if not all were saying just the opposite. Lets see how the squirrels look come October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 You're dreaming. Even if I thought it would be a bad Winter I would keep it to myself. Don't have time to comb the archives right now but your failing memory is unsettling. Try ginko. No. You were worried. I'll eventually have time and dig up the evidence. You are too young for these types of mental lapses. Take ginko daily...it may help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I don't think under 20. But as of now, 20-25 for BOS would be my call. We'll see....I can change my mind if the GOA looks nice in September and the NAO is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 As far as I know, we are still in a relatively quiet period. There is also a 3 yr lag time..give or take with respect to temps responding at the surface. An active sun could stimulate the stratosphere, though I'm not totally sure how it would behave with a -QBO. Solar activity is still pretty low, looking at both radio flux and TSI, which appears to have peaked: With a negative/easterly QBO, you tend to want low solar activity as that promotes a sudden stratospheric warming early in the winter, which leads to a -AO.The direction of the QBO and the beginning of a decline in TSI could be positive features of next winter. That being said, I'm a little worried about the lack of cold air in the Northern Hemisphere. This would change a lot if we headed back to La Niña, but currently there appears to be a dearth of below average temperatures in the NH despite the global anomaly not being that large by recent standards: Also, arctic sea ice is doing poorly with the Chukchi, Kara, and Laptev Sea all near record low ice extent...Most experts are predicting a minimum extent for the Arctic just slightly above 2007, the lowest year on record...multi-year ice increased slightly this winter but is still far below average: It's a bit early to make predictions, but I do think rebuilding the cryosphere and getting arctic air into the CONUS could be a problem early this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 I'm not worried about the cryosphere. It was awful in 2007 and '07-'08 came in furious with a lot of cold in December and very active La Nina pattern. 2008 was an awful year in the crysophere too (2nd loest behind 2007) and that winter was a negative neutral ENSO with very cold conditions across most of the north and northeast. The cryosphere will always regenerate as long as you keep the pattern favorable up there for locking out Pacific airmasses. The sun sets in September so as long as they don't get too much PAC contamination, they will regenerate just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I'm not worried about the cryosphere. It was awful in 2007 and '07-'08 came in furious with a lot of cold in December and very active La Nina pattern. 2008 was an awful year in the crysophere too (2nd loest behind 2007) and that winter was a negative neutral ENSO with very cold conditions across most of the north and northeast. The cryosphere will always regenerate as long as you keep the pattern favorable up there for locking out Pacific airmasses. The sun sets in September so as long as they don't get too much PAC contamination, they will regenerate just fine. I was just about to post something to that effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 No. You were worried. I'll eventually have time and dig up the evidence. You are too young for these types of mental lapses. Take ginko daily...it may help. You are correct. He was very uneasy going into it..esp when his elderly bunk buddy that knows weather lore told him not to expect a very good winter. He changed his tune as we got closer to Dec..but he was worried early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 I'm not worried about the cryosphere. It was awful in 2007 and '07-'08 came in furious with a lot of cold in December and very active La Nina pattern. 2008 was an awful year in the crysophere too (2nd loest behind 2007) and that winter was a negative neutral ENSO with very cold conditions across most of the north and northeast. The cryosphere will always regenerate as long as you keep the pattern favorable up there for locking out Pacific airmasses. The sun sets in September so as long as they don't get too much PAC contamination, they will regenerate just fine. Yeah temps now, don't have me worried about next winter yet. Remember how fast the snow built back up in Siberia after Moscow incinerated last summer?? Also, I wonder if the +NAO we had for a while help flush some ice out of the areas like the Fram Strait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Although not as strong like last year, We've also had a +AMO which is going to hurt the icepack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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