Winter 2011-2012

[Ginx snewx]

I was going through and cleaning up some of the climate data I keep at work and on my blog and I saw some things that really jumped out at me from this past winter.

At Bridgeport (notorious snow hole... averages a lot less than even New Haven) had a previous record of 10 days of consecutive days of 10"+ snow depth. This past winter they had a 7 day stretch of 20"+ on the ground and had 27 consecutive days of 10"+ OTG. That doesn't include the 8 days straight of 10"+ from 1/12 to 1/19 broken by one day of 9" of depth before the longer stretch start.

Even though records only go back to 1948 that is a staggering way to shatter a record. I don't know if I appreciated the severity of January at the time especially down in southern CT.

Exactly what I was saying this winter, most epic stretch of snow depth days in my memory. It is becoming obvious CT repeats last winter.

[CapturedNature]

Exactly what I was saying this winter, most epic stretch of snow depth days in my memory. It is becoming obvious CT repeats last winter.

We can only hope!

[CoastalWx]

Exactly what I was saying this winter, most epic stretch of snow depth days in my memory. It is becoming obvious CT repeats last winter.

I see 12/27/10 type dryslots for you.

[Ginx snewx]

I see 12/27/10 type dryslots for you.

Eh would not be surprising, more of a bad snow growth issue that day, lift was better for you and SW CT.

[H2Otown_WX]

Eh would not be surprising, more of a bad snow growth issue that day, lift was better for you and SW CT.

And NJ... :/

[weathafella]

99-00 was a horrible winter for SNE...Boston only recorded 15.1" snowfall. 99-00 was the warmest winter on record in the CONUS:

I think you're off on those numbers. That was 2001-02 for Boston. I think we had about 25 inches in 99-00.

[ORH_wxman]

I think you're off on those numbers. That was 2001-02 for Boston. I think we had about 25 inches in 99-00.

Yes, you are correct. It was still an awful winter though, lol.

[nzucker]

Yes, you are correct. It was still an awful winter though, lol.

Yeah I made a mistake aligning the columns, sorry guys. BOS had 24.9" as you write in 99-00; Central Park had 16.3"...

Interestingly, 99-00 was the worse winter for you guys, whereas 98-99 was the real brutal one down here. We had some decent snows with the Jan 2000 system that saved the former winter from being an epic failure. Both were generally remembered for very mild conditions, however. That was part of the brutal stretch of winters I endured in Middle School...96-97, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00. We were spoiled by 95-96, and then we suffered an incredible snow drought, as well as the two mildest winters on record in the CONUS. 98-99 was the mildest on record, and it was eclipsed the very next winter!

You can see that it was overwhelmingly low heights over the Bering Strait/Alaska (+EPO) that created the mild weather in Winter 98-99 and 99-00, although we also had an unfavorable Atlantic with a strong Icelandic low/+NAO:

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I made a mistake aligning the columns, sorry guys. BOS had 24.9" as you write in 99-00; Central Park had 16.3"...

Interestingly, 99-00 was the worse winter for you guys, whereas 98-99 was the real brutal one down here. We had some decent snows with the Jan 2000 system that saved the former winter from being an epic failure. Both were generally remembered for very mild conditions, however. That was part of the brutal stretch of winters I endured in Middle School...96-97, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00. We were spoiled by 95-96, and then we suffered an incredible snow drought, as well as the two mildest winters on record in the CONUS. 98-99 was the mildest on record, and it was eclipsed the very next winter!

You can see that it was overwhelmingly low heights over the Bering Strait/Alaska (+EPO) that created the mild weather in Winter 98-99 and 99-00, although we also had an unfavorable Atlantic with a strong Icelandic low/+NAO:

'98-'99 was surprisingly good for se mass and the Cape. It was more luck that they did ok.

[VAwxman]

I'm really interested in seasonal forecasting on time scales like this. Kind of hard to find that line of research in grad schools. It's there, but it's the climate change and severe weather research that get the most attention. A lot of people dismiss it as very low skill ... which it is lol, but that's where everything starts

I don't post or comment all that often, but I like your work and hope you continue to pursue it. Trust me, the energy space could use folks who can do long range stuff, and in order to make money, it's not even that you have to be right every time, but it's more about being right more than wrong versus the competition. If you can learn enough to do that, mucho dinero can be made.

[Ginx snewx]

I don't post or comment all that often, but I like your work and hope you continue to pursue it. Trust me, the energy space could use folks who can do long range stuff, and in order to make money, it's not even that you have to be right every time, but it's more about being right more than wrong versus the competition. If you can learn enough to do that, mucho dinero can be made.

Kudos Brian, great post and so very true, Sam has the goods.

[ORH_wxman]

'98-'99 was surprisingly good for se mass and the Cape. It was more luck that they did ok.

Yeah parts of the south shore and Cape Cod had well over 40" in 1998-1999...it was a pretty good winter there. Even BOS had like 36-37" which isn't a total dud. It sucked here though with 46.3"...parts of the upper Cape might have beaten me that winter.

A lot of it was luck as you said, but those make up for the unlucky winters too. Every now and then you need to pull off a lucky high snow total. We did it in 1996-1997...a complete torch winter.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah parts of the south shore and Cape Cod had well over 40" in 1998-1999...it was a pretty good winter there. Even BOS had like 36-37" which isn't a total dud. It sucked here though with 46.3"...parts of the upper Cape might have beaten me that winter.

A lot of it was luck as you said, but those make up for the unlucky winters too. Every now and then you need to pull off a lucky high snow total. We did it in 1996-1997...a complete torch winter.

Man I remember how much I hated '96-'97 until April Fools. Talk about pulling that one out of our azz. We did have that sneaky January storm in eastern mass, but several of the storms were snow when I went to bed...only to be mangled slush piles from plows when I got up. I hated that.

[ORH_wxman]

Man I remember how much I hated '96-'97 until April Fools. Talk about pulling that one out of our azz. We did have that sneaky January storm in eastern mass, but several of the storms were snow when I went to bed...only to be mangled slush piles from plows when I got up. I hated that.

Here, we lucked out in the December '96 storm. We basically had 60" of our 87.5" in 2 events. But that makes up for unlucky screw jobs like '09-'10.

[CoastalWx]

Here, we lucked out in the December '96 storm. We basically had 60" of our 87.5" in 2 events. But that makes up for unlucky screw jobs like '09-'10.

Actually...part 1 of that was pretty cool. We ended up with a TSSN paste job with that. Didn't expect that in se mass. I ended up envious in part II where you were dancing with Cantore naked in TSSN.

[ORH_wxman]

CFS is showing a moderate Nina for the winter now...its been cooling steadily all summer, but its magnitude can be off as we know from the past. It will be interesting to see the updated Euro plumes for August when they come out. Those had been cooling too, but not as fast as the CFS has.

[nzucker]

CFS is showing a moderate Nina for the winter now...its been cooling steadily all summer, but its magnitude can be off as we know from the past. It will be interesting to see the updated Euro plumes for August when they come out. Those had been cooling too, but not as fast as the CFS has.

CPC weekly update has Region 3.4 at -0.4C now, a significant cooling from last week. Overall, the Pacific shows lots of signs of being ready for another robust Niña with rapid cooling in some of the PDO regions as well as the western ENSO regions according to the NOAA SST maps.

Here was the Pacific SSTA on 8/4:

Much colder on the new update, 8/8:

106m map also shows subsurface cooling in the central ENSO regions:

Is James Hansen still calling for a strong Niño?

[A-L-E-X]

Wow, this doesnt bode well for next winter, unless the NAO once again trumps the nina and we see a 1916-17/1917-18 repeat.

[nzucker]

To be clear, though, I'd still predict a weak Niña for Winter 11-12. In fact, I've been favoring a weak Niña since springtime even though many here were on the El Niño bandwagon. The subsurface really doesn't support anything stronger, although it has been steadily cooling, and we still have nice connections to the Humboldt/Antarctic Current as well as the cold pool that stretches southwest from Baja California, which is part of the -PDO signature.

A second year Niña with low global SSTs, low solar, and a warm stratosphere (-NAO/-AO regime) should really cause a plunge in global temperatures. The lower troposphere has been running pretty warm this summer, but I think we'll see a turnaround.

[A-L-E-X]

To be clear, though, I'd still predict a weak Niña for Winter 11-12. In fact, I've been favoring a weak Niña since springtime even though many here were on the El Niño bandwagon. The subsurface really doesn't support anything stronger, although it has been steadily cooling, and we still have nice connections to the Humboldt/Antarctic Current as well as the cold pool that stretches southwest from Baja California, which is part of the -PDO signature.

A second year Niña with low global SSTs, low solar, and a warm stratosphere (-NAO/-AO regime) should really cause a plunge in global temperatures. The lower troposphere has been running pretty warm this summer, but I think we'll see a turnaround.

I remember you saying that you agreed with me that 12-13 has a good chance of being an el nino though.

[nzucker]

Wow, this doesnt bode well for next winter, unless the NAO once again trumps the nina and we see a 1916-17/1917-18 repeat.

I don't think it's terribly bad news, we knew we weren't getting a weak Niño for a while. A high-end weak Niña is fine for NYC metro.

As long as we see the low solar/-NAO regime, we're fine. Historically, some of our best winters have been in weak Niñas (95-96, 66-67 etc). I still doubt we'll get to moderate Niña, though NYC wouldn't be out of the woods for big snowfalls if we had a moderate Niña and blocking. Historically we've received the lowest snowfall in moderate Niñas, but the rules are being re-written by high-latitude blocking.

[A-L-E-X]

I don't think it's terribly bad news, we knew we weren't getting a weak Niño for a while. A high-end weak Niña is fine for NYC metro.

As long as we see the low solar/-NAO regime, we're fine. Historically, some of our best winters have been in weak Niñas (95-96, 66-67 etc). I still doubt we'll get to moderate Niña, though NYC wouldn't be out of the woods for big snowfalls if we had a moderate Niña and blocking. Historically we've received the lowest snowfall in moderate Niñas, but the rules are being re-written by high-latitude blocking.

Hey, did you read the paper predicting a solar maximum in 2013? Do you put any stock in that or do you think it's just another wrong prediction?

[A-L-E-X]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110809162011.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily+%28ScienceDaily%3A+Latest+Science+News%29

Solar Flares: What Does It Take to Be X-Class? Sun Emits an X-Class

Flare On August 9, 2011

ScienceDaily (Aug. 9, 2011) — Solar flares are giant explosions on the

sun that send energy, light and high speed particles into space. These

flares are often associated with solar magnetic storms known as coronal

mass ejections (CMEs). The number of solar flares increases

approximately every 11 years, and the sun is currently moving towards

another solar maximum, likely in 2013. That means more flares will be

coming, some small and some big enough to send their radiation all the

way to Earth.

The biggest flares are known as "X-class flares" based on a

classification system that divides solar flares according to their

strength. The smallest ones are A-class (near background levels),

followed by B, C, M and X. Similar to the Richter scale for earthquakes,

each letter represents a 10-fold increase in energy output. So an X is

ten times an M and 100 times a C. Within each letter class there is a

finer scale from 1 to 9.

C-class and smaller flares are too weak to noticeably affect Earth.

M-class flares can cause brief radio blackouts at the poles and minor

radiation storms that might endanger astronauts.

And then come the X-class flares. Although X is the last letter, there

are flares more than 10 times the power of an X1, so X-class flares can

go higher than 9. The most powerful flare measured with modern methods

was in 2003, during the last solar maximum, and it was so powerful that

it overloaded the sensors measuring it. The sensors cut out at X28.

The biggest X-class flares are by far the largest explosions in the

solar system and are awesome to watch. Loops tens of times the size of

Earth leap up off the sun's surface when the sun's magnetic fields cross

over each other and reconnect. In the biggest events, this reconnection

process can produce as much energy as a billion hydrogen bombs.

If they're directed at Earth, such flares and associated CMEs can create

long lasting radiation storms that can harm satellites, communications

systems, and even ground-based technologies and power grids. X-class

flares on December 5 and December 6, 2006, for example, triggered a CME

that interfered with GPS signals being sent to ground-based receivers.

NASA and NOAA -- as well as the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and

others -- keep a constant watch on the sun to monitor for X-class flares

and their associated magnetic storms. With advance warning many

satellites and spacecraft can be protected from the worst effects.

On August 9, 2011 at 3:48 a.m. EDT, the sun emitted an Earth-directed

X6.9 flare, as measured by the NOAA GOES satellite. These gigantic

bursts of radiation cannot pass through Earth's atmosphere to harm

humans on the ground, however they can disrupt the atmosphere and

disrupt GPS and communications signals. In this case, it appears the

flare is strong enough to potentially cause some radio communication

blackouts. It also produced increased solar energetic proton radiation

-- enough to affect humans in space if they do not protect themselves.

There was also a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this flare.

CMEs are another solar phenomenon that can send solar particles into

space and affect electronic systems in satellites and on Earth. However,

this CME is not traveling toward and Earth so no Earth-bound effects are

expected.

[CoastalWx]

While we are on the uptick, at last check...we are still very low in the solar energy department, even heading towards a solar maximum. The sun has been relatively quiet.

[ORH_wxman]

I don't think it's terribly bad news, we knew we weren't getting a weak Niño for a while. A high-end weak Niña is fine for NYC metro.

As long as we see the low solar/-NAO regime, we're fine. Historically, some of our best winters have been in weak Niñas (95-96, 66-67 etc). I still doubt we'll get to moderate Niña, though NYC wouldn't be out of the woods for big snowfalls if we had a moderate Niña and blocking. Historically we've received the lowest snowfall in moderate Niñas, but the rules are being re-written by high-latitude blocking.

'66-'67 was a cold-neutral after a strong Nino. '95-'96 was after a moderate Nino. This doesn't mean we can't have a winter like '66-'67, but I'd probably favor a little more SE ridging.

Of course we'll see how much ENSO continues to dip in the fall:

[nzucker]

'66-'67 was a cold-neutral after a strong Nino. '95-'96 was after a moderate Nino. This doesn't mean we can't have a winter like '66-'67, but I'd probably favor a little more SE ridging.

Of course we'll see how much ENSO continues to dip in the fall:

I do wonder how much a previous year's Niño can play into the situation...some people said that we had the remnants of a STJ in 95-96 due to the moderate Niño the preceding winter, but I'm not sure that claim has any veracity though I do know the STJ was involved in some of the big February/March '96 snowfalls, which was after the polar jet driven January '96 blizzard. How much do you really believe the idea of a preceding winter's ENSO state having an impact? We had a strong Niño in 09-10 but then had negative zonal wind anomalies in the STJ region for the 10-11 Winter, so we can't say it worked this past year. If anything, the southern storms we had were from North Pacific energy, typical of a stronger Niña though the blocking kept the storm track displaced off the coast more than usual.

66-67 was not a cold winter nationally...it was just that the frigid Feb-April period produced a ton of snowfalls in the Northeast Corridor. So I don't know if I'd want to go warmer than 66-67 which was overall a fairly mild/normal winter in the CONUS:

If you are forecasting a big -NAO block, then the Niña (which probably will be stronger than 66-67, agreed there) shouldn't stop you from forecasting well below average temperatures in the Southeast. Everyone was thinking we'd see a SE ridge for Winter 10-11, but the Southeast actually had the strongest below normal anomalies (and at 500mb, too) because of the frigid December...Dec 2010 was like -7F at places like RDU and ATL.

[ORH_wxman]

I do wonder how much a previous year's Niño can play into the situation...some people said that we had the remnants of a STJ in 95-96 due to the moderate Niño the preceding winter, but I'm not sure that claim has any veracity though I do know the STJ was involved in some of the big February/March '96 snowfalls, which was after the polar jet driven January '96 blizzard. How much do you really believe the idea of a preceding winter's ENSO state having an impact? We had a strong Niño in 09-10 but then had negative zonal wind anomalies in the STJ region for the 10-11 Winter, so we can't say it worked this past year. If anything, the southern storms we had were from North Pacific energy, typical of a stronger Niña though the blocking kept the storm track displaced off the coast more than usual.

66-67 was not a cold winter nationally...it was just that the frigid Feb-April period produced a ton of snowfalls in the Northeast Corridor. So I don't know if I'd want to go warmer than 66-67 which was overall a fairly mild/normal winter in the CONUS:

If you are forecasting a big -NAO block, then the Niña (which probably will be stronger than 66-67, agreed there) shouldn't stop you from forecasting well below average temperatures in the Southeast. Everyone was thinking we'd see a SE ridge for Winter 10-11, but the Southeast actually had the strongest below normal anomalies (and at 500mb, too) because of the frigid December...Dec 2010 was like -7F at places like RDU and ATL.

'10-'11 developed into quite potent Nina early on in the fall wiping out any remnants of a STJ/Nino...when ENSO is much weaker, it will have a weaker affect on the atmosphere.

Its hard to say just how much of a "hangover" effect can occur in a more neutralish year...its hard to quantify it, but it certainly makes more physical sense that you'd have a better chance of that in a weaker or neutral ENSO than a potent one like we had this past winter.

I would probably never forecast a NAO block like last winter either in a seasonal outlook.

[Ginx snewx]

'10-'11 developed into quite potent Nina early on in the fall wiping out any remnants of a STJ/Nino...when ENSO is much weaker, it will have a weaker affect on the atmosphere.

Its hard to say just how much of a "hangover" effect can occur in a more neutralish year...its hard to quantify it, but it certainly makes more physical sense that you'd have a better chance of that in a weaker or neutral ENSO than a potent one like we had this past winter.

I would probably never forecast a NAO block like last winter either in a seasonal outlook.

We are good to go, flip to neg mid Nov, Atlantic will provide our juice.

[nzucker]

'10-'11 developed into quite potent Nina early on in the fall wiping out any remnants of a STJ/Nino...when ENSO is much weaker, it will have a weaker affect on the atmosphere.

Its hard to say just how much of a "hangover" effect can occur in a more neutralish year...its hard to quantify it, but it certainly makes more physical sense that you'd have a better chance of that in a weaker or neutral ENSO than a potent one like we had this past winter.

I would probably never forecast a NAO block like last winter either in a seasonal outlook.

Has there ever been any research devoted to the topic of the lagged effect of ENSO on North American winter circulation?

[ORH_wxman]

Has there ever been any research devoted to the topic of the lagged effect of ENSO on North American winter circulation?

Well I believe the typical lag is 2-3 months for ENSO affecting our patterns here and that's been researched...but of course, if ENSO is weak, then its influence on the pattern is weak. Its why we care where ENSO is in October/November and don't really care anymore during the actual winter months...esp after New Years.