Winter 2011-2012

[Isotherm]

The biggest factor IMHO that remains uncertain is whether we get a La Nina or not, or just how potent. I've been favoring weak La Nina for a long time now, but its still possible it sneaks a moderate criteria. Still could just end up cold-neutral too. The subsurface warmth continues to erode in the Pacific suggesting that colder is becoming more likely.

We know we'll have a pretty potent -QBO, we're pretty sure solar isn't going to become uber-active, and we're pretty sure the PDO is staying negative. The NAO remains an uncertainty, but that is always true at this time range. ENSO is still a bit up in the air.

I'd agree at this point re weak La Nina being the favored state, although I'm beginning to lean toward the cold-neutral side (-0.5c) rather than moderate intensity (-1.0c).

As we all like to say, the next 1-2 months will tell the tale, do or die, as far as ENSO's concerned. If we're still hugging the 0 mark in region 3.4 near the end of September, most likely a cold-neutral winter is in store. If weak nina has a shot, we should start seeing some cooling (at least slight) in the next several weeks. I like the progression of 2008-09 as a good analog for this season/upcoming autumn and winter, with region 3.4 values generally between -0.4C and -0.8c. Per CPC, 2008-09 isn't highlighted as a weak nina, but regardless of ONI, the winter definitely acted like a nina atmospherically.

[CoastalWx]

I'd agree at this point re weak La Nina being the favored state, although I'm beginning to lean toward the cold-neutral side (-0.5c) rather than moderate intensity (-1.0c).

As we all like to say, the next 1-2 months will tell the tale, do or die, as far as ENSO's concerned. If we're still hugging the 0 mark in region 3.4 near the end of September, most likely a cold-neutral winter is in store. If weak nina has a shot, we should start seeing some cooling (at least slight) in the next several weeks. I like the progression of 2008-09 as a good analog for this season/upcoming autumn and winter, with region 3.4 values generally between -0.4C and -0.8c. Per CPC, 2008-09 isn't highlighted as a weak nina, but regardless of ONI, the winter definitely acted like a nina atmospherically.

I mentioned a while back that it seemed like we were following 2008 as well by this point....at least they were somewhat similar. I was looking back at the euro forecasts during that year, and the plumes were way too warm, but the behavior seems similar to this year.

[OKpowdah]

Last week's CPC Update had:

Region 4: -0.1C

Region 3.4: -0.2C

Region 3: 0.0

Region 1.2: +0.5C

I think we might see a bit of cooling this week based on the SST map released by NOAA on Thursday, and it looks as if weak trades remain across the ENSO regions with little signs of any WWB:

Cooling in the eastern regions for sure. West stays steady I think. Anomalous convergence around about 170-175E

[CoastalWx]

Cooling in the eastern regions for sure. West stays steady I think. Anomalous convergence around about 170-175E

You think MT action keeps it east? That would be a good thing for us.

[OKpowdah]

I'd agree at this point re weak La Nina being the favored state, although I'm beginning to lean toward the cold-neutral side (-0.5c) rather than moderate intensity (-1.0c).

As we all like to say, the next 1-2 months will tell the tale, do or die, as far as ENSO's concerned. If we're still hugging the 0 mark in region 3.4 near the end of September, most likely a cold-neutral winter is in store. If weak nina has a shot, we should start seeing some cooling (at least slight) in the next several weeks. I like the progression of 2008-09 as a good analog for this season/upcoming autumn and winter, with region 3.4 values generally between -0.4C and -0.8c. Per CPC, 2008-09 isn't highlighted as a weak nina, but regardless of ONI, the winter definitely acted like a nina atmospherically.

Agreed on all accounts. I'd say equal chance right now of cold-neutral and moderate. Weak looks likely IMO. Just as you said though, either way, Nina characteristics of the general circulation remain intact ... an object in motion stays in motion unless acted on by another force ...

[OKpowdah]

You think MT action keeps it east? That would be a good thing for us.

Yes, and that would be once difference from 08-09. Would make things interesting!

[ORH_wxman]

I'd agree at this point re weak La Nina being the favored state, although I'm beginning to lean toward the cold-neutral side (-0.5c) rather than moderate intensity (-1.0c).

As we all like to say, the next 1-2 months will tell the tale, do or die, as far as ENSO's concerned. If we're still hugging the 0 mark in region 3.4 near the end of September, most likely a cold-neutral winter is in store. If weak nina has a shot, we should start seeing some cooling (at least slight) in the next several weeks. I like the progression of 2008-09 as a good analog for this season/upcoming autumn and winter, with region 3.4 values generally between -0.4C and -0.8c. Per CPC, 2008-09 isn't highlighted as a weak nina, but regardless of ONI, the winter definitely acted like a nina atmospherically.

I agree except with your part of leaning toward a cold-neutral over a weak La Nina. I'd put weak La Nina easily as most favorable right now considering what is happening to the subsurface and climo going forward.

[Snowstorms]

2011 -1.654 -1.552 -1.548 -1.495 -.368 -.225 -.147

Latest MEI number above. Slight warming though I don't think were going to warm any more than this across the ENSO regions.

Stay tuned for the next update (by September 10th, probably earlier) to see where the MEI will be heading next. La Niña conditions have at least briefly expired in the MEI sense, making ENSO-neutral conditions the safest bet for the next few months. However, a relapse into La Niña conditions is not at all off the table, based on the reasoning I gave in September 2010 - big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after 'taking time off' during northern hemispheric summer, as last seen in 2008. I believe the odds for this are still better than 50/50. If history ends up repeating itself, the return of La Niña should happen within about two to three months.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

I personally prefer the MEI over the ONI.

[Ginx snewx]

I like the 2010 analogy more and more, seriously, just colder.

[OKpowdah]

I like the 2010 analogy more and more, seriously, just colder.

I don't know if I would ever use 2010 as an analog ... a number of "chance" events that went right IMO ... but not representative of the preset conditions. And in this case, some pretty big differences in the coming winter. All that said, sensible weather-wise, could be similar

[Ginx snewx]

I don't know if I would ever use 2010 as an analog ... a number of "chance" events that went right IMO ... but not representative of the preset conditions. And in this case, some pretty big differences in the coming winter. All that said, sensible weather-wise, could be similar

QBO is colder but the Atlantic is similar, NINA similar, sun similar, what are the big differences?

[OKpowdah]

QBO is colder but the Atlantic is similar, NINA similar, sun similar, what are the big differences?

Opposite stage of the QBO

Opposite SST anomalies around Indonesia

Opposite ENSO lag

Also, my other point was that given the preset of last winter, no one would have expected it to evolve the way it did ... no one did expect it! Really not useful as an analog IMO

[Ginx snewx]

Opposite stage of the QBO

Opposite SST anomalies around Indonesia

Opposite ENSO lag

Also, my other point was that given the preset of last winter, no one would have expected it to evolve the way it did ... no one did expect it! Really not useful as an analog IMO

, no one would have expected it to evolve the way it did ... no one did expect it

Not true at all.

ENSO lag, seriously? I disagree with your emphasis on conditions far removed from NE which effect other areas more than us, it's all going to come down to AO NAO for us. I like our chances with the Atlantic setup.

[nzucker]

, no one would have expected it to evolve the way it did ... no one did expect it

Not true at all.

ENSO lag, seriously? I disagree with your emphasis on conditions far removed from NE which effect other areas more than us, it's all going to come down to AO NAO for us. I like our chances with the Atlantic setup.

The La Niña is not nearly as strong this season, there may have been some contributions to a warmer stratosphere from the old El Niño in Winter 10-11 which allowed for the -NAO/-AO, and the QBO signal suggests we may see more of a gradient this winter like 00-01 or 70-71. As you say, the Atlantic does look similar with an even more defined tri-pole anomaly in August 2011 compared to August 2010, although the waters near Greenland that sometimes signal a -NAO are not nearly as warm as 2010, just slightly above average this time around. So there's definitely a similar picture but the weak Niña/-QBO suggests the cold may be a bit more extreme as Sam pointed out, and that the snowfall gradient may be more dramatic potentially with NYC receiving less and NNE a bit more, relative to normal values. I agree with both your ideas, however.

[Ginx snewx]

The La Niña is not nearly as strong this season, there may have been some contributions to a warmer stratosphere from the old El Niño in Winter 10-11 which allowed for the -NAO/-AO, and the QBO signal suggests we may see more of a gradient this winter like 00-01 or 70-71. As you say, the Atlantic does look similar with an even more defined tri-pole anomaly in August 2011 compared to August 2010, although the waters near Greenland that sometimes signal a -NAO are not nearly as warm as 2010, just slightly above average this time around. So there's definitely a similar picture but the weak Niña/-QBO suggests the cold may be a bit more extreme as Sam pointed out, and that the snowfall gradient may be more dramatic potentially with NYC receiving less and NNE a bit more, relative to normal values. I agree with both your ideas, however.

I do like the CNE NNE area as prime this year, but saying that 2010 is an analog does not mean I expect 83 inches, it means the areas I watch more closely resemble last year.

[OKpowdah]

, no one would have expected it to evolve the way it did ... no one did expect it

Not true at all.

ENSO lag, seriously? I disagree with your emphasis on conditions far removed from NE which effect other areas more than us, it's all going to come down to AO NAO for us. I like our chances with the Atlantic setup.

Everything's connected.

A negative AO/NAO doesn't help much against a lousy Pacific. Plant a vortex over Alaska and bam, zonal flow and torch ... that's not out of the question yet, and could be an issue a few times this winter

[Ginx snewx]

Everything's connected.

A negative AO/NAO doesn't help much against a lousy Pacific. Plant a vortex over Alaska and bam, zonal flow and torch ... that's not out of the question yet, and could be an issue a few times this winter

You might want to check that out, we have and can reap with a neg NAO and a vortex over aK, 70-71 maybe.

[OKpowdah]

You might want to check that out, we have and can reap with a neg NAO and a vortex over aK, 70-71 maybe.

Yeah, fair enough. I might say the vortex was displaced a little further southeast ... but point still made. I could make the same points about cashing in on +AO/NAO regimes ... bringing us back to everything is connected

[ORH_wxman]

I think its becoming more and more apparent that a 1999-2000 redux is incoming this winter.

[CoastalWx]

I think its becoming more and more apparent that a 1999-2000 redux is incoming this winter.

What was the ORH total?

[ORH_wxman]

What was the ORH total?

30.2 horrifying inches.

[CT Rain]

I think its becoming more and more apparent that a 1999-2000 redux is incoming this winter.

We can only hope

[Typhoon Tip]

We can only hope

Was that a good winter? .... I think, eh, KNOW that the consensus here is that winter brings everyone within an inch of their lives do to cold and snow, then dumps a snow storm on top of that such that defribulators are required, only to have a 10,000 foot glacial wall cleave civility off the face of the earth right before NWS issues a 300 year blizzard warning... But, my memory of 1999-2000 was a lousy winter.

I wonder if it was one of those good west bad east deals. I remember some cold and snow but nothing too great. Couple of ice storms actually. Mediocre.

[nzucker]

Was that a good winter? .... I think, eh, KNOW that the consensus here is that winter brings everyone within an inch of their lives do to cold and snow, then dumps a snow storm on top of that such that defribulators are required, only to have a 10,000 foot glacial wall cleave civility off the face of the earth right before NWS issues a 300 year blizzard warning... But, my memory of 1999-2000 was a lousy winter.

I wonder if it was one of those good west bad east deals. I remember some cold and snow but nothing too great. Couple of ice storms actually. Mediocre.

99-00 was a horrible winter for SNE...Boston only recorded 15.1" snowfall. 99-00 was the warmest winter on record in the CONUS:\

[CoastalWx]

30.2 horrifying inches.

I was gonna say...I thought you were only several more than BOS..but I didn't know how correct the numbers were, that BOX had. Wow, that's terrible..lol.

[CoastalWx]

99-00 was a horrible winter for SNE...Boston only recorded 15.1" snowfall. 99-00 was the warmest winter on record in the CONUS:\

That was '01-'02. BOS had 24.9 in '99-'00.

[Snow Bow]

I think its becoming more and more apparent that a 1999-2000 redux is incoming this winter.

Please tell me your joking? Or maybe your girlfriend hijacked your account again hopefully???

[ORH_wxman]

I was gonna say...I thought you were only several more than BOS..but I didn't know how correct the numbers were, that BOX had. Wow, that's terrible..lol.

Its always been a deceptively pathetic winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

30.2 horrifying inches.

[CT Rain]

I was going through and cleaning up some of the climate data I keep at work and on my blog and I saw some things that really jumped out at me from this past winter.

At Bridgeport (notorious snow hole... averages a lot less than even New Haven) had a previous record of 10 days of consecutive days of 10"+ snow depth. This past winter they had a 7 day stretch of 20"+ on the ground and had 27 consecutive days of 10"+ OTG. That doesn't include the 8 days straight of 10"+ from 1/12 to 1/19 broken by one day of 9" of depth before the longer stretch start.

Even though records only go back to 1948 that is a staggering way to shatter a record. I don't know if I appreciated the severity of January at the time especially down in southern CT.