CoastalWx Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 As always...reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic at this pt. But the signals can be so deceiving if the atmosphere wants them to be. Look how much last winter stung for the long range guys. Yeah exactly. The opposite of what some of thinking might happen as well. I'm not a long range guy either, but I just think some of the preliminary signals at least don't look awful. Of course that can change, but it's not like I'm running for the Tobin after looking over some stuff. I still have that worry a clunker is coming soon...hopefully not this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Sam's outlook remnds me a great deal of last winter...Scooter is gonna be driving for the Tobin come March; at least the car will be warm for the trip, owed to the strengthening irradiance. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Sam's outlooks remnds me a great deal of last winter...Scooter is gonna be driving for the Tobon come March; at least the car will be warm for the trib, owed to the increasing irradiance. lol You know what will happen. Will's gonna have a 14" blue bomb late month. You'll have 2-3" at the tail end, and I change to mangled catpaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 You know what will happen. Will's gonna have a 14" blue bomb late month. You'll have 2-3" at the tail end, and I change to mangled catpaws. No....we just had one of those 2 seasons ago....they aren't too frequent. If he gets 14", then I'll likely get about 9-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 No....we just had one of those 2 seasons ago....they aren't too frequent. If he gets 14", then I'll likely get about 9-10". Nah you'll get screwed by borderline low levels..lol. In all seriousness, I hope we actually have a March...you know...a month that is still winter-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Nah you'll get screwed by borderline low levels..lol. In all seriousness, I hope we actually have a March...you know...a month that is still winter-like. I know what you mean...and that just does not happen very often. The vast majority of the time, there will exist and appendage of relatively high amounts stretching from the ORH hills into my area, here in interior ne MA. I'll get about 70-75% of what Will receives in the aforementioned scenario. This is the place to be if you have to be near sea level in sne. That event in 2010 was a rare occurence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Nah you'll get screwed by borderline low levels..lol. In all seriousness, I hope we actually have a March...you know...a month that is still winter-like. We're due for a good March...this is the winter, I can "feel" it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I think there's good support for a SSW at the end of February ... which could help us out for the first half of March. 2001 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I think there's good support for a SSW at the end of February ... which could help us out for the first half of March. 2001 anyone? Your preset is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Your preset is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I know what you mean...and that just does not happen very often. The vast majority of the time, there will exist and appendage of relatively high amounts stretching from the ORH hills into my area, here in interior ne MA. I'll get about 70-75% of what Will receives in the aforementioned scenario. This is the place to be if you have to be near sea level in sne. That event in 2010 was a rare occurence. I know....I was only kidding. March '01 and others have proved that. I'm sort of nervous for this winter...not because I think it could suck (of course it could), but because I could see a lot more marine taint this year. I just have that feeling you'll be fully nude and arrested because you were playing naked twister with the CF. If it can be like '08-'09...fine by me...you can be nude all you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Very impressive write up, Sam.........you're in the big leagues, now. lol You know that you've made it when half of the outlook was over my head. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I know....I was only kidding. March '01 and others have proved that. I'm sort of nervous for this winter...not because I think it could suck (of course it could), but because I could see a lot more marine taint this year. I just have that feeling you'll be fully nude and arrested because you were playing naked twister with the CF. If it can be like '08-'09...fine by me...you can be nude all you want. God, I hope you're right....I'm sick or pixy dust.........I need to get my cf on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Very impressive write up, Sam.........you're in the big leagues, now. lol You know that you've made it when half of the outlook was over my head. lol lol thanks Ray! Still early, but I wanted to experiment with a few ideas. Here's to another blockbuster winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 God, I hope you're right....I'm sick or pixy dust.........I need to get my cf on. I will say, that's the one thing I like about moving a little further north, in DOT. I defintely get to see a little CF action. It was very rare to get that down in Marshfield, but sometimes the ocean threw me a bone with a little enhancement too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I will say, that's the one thing I like about moving a little further north, in DOT. I defintely get to see a little CF action. It was very rare to get that down in Marshfield, but sometimes the ocean threw me a bone with a little enhancement too. Ideally, I'd like to be about 10 miles w....but I am close to the best spot for that. Not so much 10 miles nw because then you get into the Merrimack armpit that is the Lowell area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Ideally, I'd like to be about 10 miles w....but I am close to the best spot for that. Not so much 10 miles nw because then you get into the Merrimack armpit that is the Lowell area. I'd rather live on top of MQE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 I'd rather live on top of MQE. Yea lol I'd rather say where I'm at, but move the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 La Nina or cold ENSO has been a virtual lock for good Decembers this past decade. March has been terrible in cold ENSO since that epic 2001. The other decent Marches were 2005 (El Nino) and 2007 (El Nino). Eventually it will even back out, but at this point its hard not to think of the recent trend. The 2000-2001 season was kind of the opposite of recent Ninas...December started off warm and then turned bitterly cold after that lakes cutter storm on Dec 17th, but we had trouble getting big snow events in here, and then the 12/30/00 storm was a disappointment even though the interior still did ok with 8-12 inches. (it was a toaster in the the tub storm for BOS though) Then the winter really seemed to pick up with that Jan 20th event (really good for SE MA), and then followed 2 weeks later by the epic February 5, 2001 event. Then of course the finale occurred in the blockbuster March which had multiple storms and not just the "Big one". That winter seemed to get better as it went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 La Nina or cold ENSO has been a virtual lock for good Decembers this past decade. March has been terrible in cold ENSO since that epic 2001. The other decent Marches were 2005 (El Nino) and 2007 (El Nino). Eventually it will even back out, but at this point its hard not to think of the recent trend. The 2000-2001 season was kind of the opposite of recent Ninas...December started off warm and then turned bitterly cold after that lakes cutter storm on Dec 17th, but we had trouble getting big snow events in here, and then the 12/30/00 storm was a disappointment even though the interior still did ok with 8-12 inches. (it was a toaster in the the tub storm for BOS though) Then the winter really seemed to pick up with that Jan 20th event (really good for SE MA), and then followed 2 weeks later by the epic February 5, 2001 event. Then of course the finale occurred in the blockbuster March which had multiple storms and not just the "Big one". That winter seemed to get better as it went. The 12/30/00 storm was brutal. I absolutely share Jerry's fear on that. What an abortion that was. I went to a NY party the day after down in Paramus NJ. It hurt to see the snowpack BUILD as I went down 95 into NYC. Paramus got smoked in that. I left my house with patches of frozen slush garbage on the ground, and came into Paramus with almost 20 OTG..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 ok i should stop posting and spend more time with my amazing girlfriend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 ok i should stop posting and spend more time with my amazing girlfriend.... Thanks for hijacking my account for a post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 ok i should stop posting and spend more time with my amazing girlfriend.... LOL, oh oh. Hijacked keyboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stratuslove Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 LOL, oh oh. Hijacked keyboard. can't prove it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Actually, I consider talking winter, "quality time". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 2000-01 was ok... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 The biggest factor IMHO that remains uncertain is whether we get a La Nina or not, or just how potent. I've been favoring weak La Nina for a long time now, but its still possible it sneaks a moderate criteria. Still could just end up cold-neutral too. The subsurface warmth continues to erode in the Pacific suggesting that colder is becoming more likely. We know we'll have a pretty potent -QBO, we're pretty sure solar isn't going to become uber-active, and we're pretty sure the PDO is staying negative. The NAO remains an uncertainty, but that is always true at this time range. ENSO is still a bit up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 The biggest factor IMHO that remains uncertain is whether we get a La Nina or not, or just how potent. I've been favoring weak La Nina for a long time now, but its still possible it sneaks a moderate criteria. Still could just end up cold-neutral too. The subsurface warmth continues to erode in the Pacific suggesting that colder is becoming more likely. We know we'll have a pretty potent -QBO, we're pretty sure solar isn't going to become uber-active, and we're pretty sure the PDO is staying negative. The NAO remains an uncertainty, but that is always true at this time range. ENSO is still a bit up in the air. I'm actually thinking region 3.4 might get close to -1C or so during one of the tri-monthly periods. I think it will be weak too, but I wouldn't be shocked if it got close to moderate. I suppose we'll have an idea this fall of where things are headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 I'm actually thinking region 3.4 might get close to -1C or so during one of the tri-monthly periods. I think it will be weak too, but I wouldn't be shocked if it got close to moderate. I suppose we'll have an idea this fall of where things are headed. Last week's CPC Update had: Region 4: -0.1C Region 3.4: -0.2C Region 3: 0.0 Region 1.2: +0.5C I think we might see a bit of cooling this week based on the SST map released by NOAA on Thursday, and it looks as if weak trades remain across the ENSO regions with little signs of any WWB: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 I'm thinking a Weak-Moderate La Nina combined with a -PDO/-QBO and -NAO/-AO combination. Based on the subsurface cooling we've recently seen I wouldn't rule out atleast a Weak Moderate La Nina though we'll see how the SOI responds and the IOD. Latest SST chart shows a well defined -PDO and cooling across Nino regions 3.4 and 4. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif Looks like a "La Nina", also know as "Benguela Niño" is developing in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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