dendrite Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Jan 13, 1999 storm Fond memories of 7F with ZR/IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Fond memories of 7F with ZR/IP. That was a good storm to be on the coast at low elevation. A nice snow dump at 9F before the warmth made it closer to the surface. I remember walking about 3 miles at the height on that night and finally crying uncle and jumping on the T....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Latest CFS members are really cooling off ENSO now. Gives a little more confidence to at least a weak Nina. I might have to concede that a weak Nina is looking more likely. Though most of this trend is based on an upwelling Kelvin wave in the short term, and probably will reverse later in August (famous last words lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 yes last year was more like the low solar mod-strong ninas from the 1910s.... that threw everyone for a major surprise-- no one expected that at all. Remember all of my posts on Eastern and Accuwx? I definitely expected that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 I might have to concede that a weak Nina is looking more likely. Though most of this trend is based on an upwelling Kelvin wave in the short term, and probably will reverse later in August (famous last words lol) The subsurface warmth has really eroded so I think it will be very difficult to get anything warmer than a negative-neutral. We rarely see it come back after late summer. I'd probably still put weak Nina as the most likely if I had to bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The subsurface warmth has really eroded so I think it will be very difficult to get anything warmer than a negative-neutral. We rarely see it come back after late summer. I'd probably still put weak Nina as the most likely if I had to bet. I'm reluctant to add 1995-96 but maybe I should as an analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 I'm reluctant to add 1995-96 but maybe I should as an analog? Well '95-'96 was a first year weak Nina that still had some slight STJ hangover from the previous moderate Nino the year before. But I certainly wouldn't rule out a pattern like that given the recent state of the NAO/AO and a negative QBO this winter. I might put '00-'01 as an analog....except you don't get screwed by the 12/30 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Well '95-'96 was a first year weak Nina that still had some slight STJ hangover from the previous moderate Nino the year before. But I certainly wouldn't rule out a pattern like that given the recent state of the NAO/AO and a negative QBO this winter. I might put '00-'01 as an analog....except you don't get screwed by the 12/30 storm. Not a bad combo. Let's see the GOA in 2 months. It didn't fail me last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 Not a bad combo. Let's see the GOA in 2 months. It didn't fail me last year. The wildcard as always will be the NAO/AO. It went extreme negative last winter to setup the pattern. The trend is our friend in that department recently, but even in multi-decadal NAO downturns, we can still see a winter or two spike positive, we'll just hope it doesn't hurt us if it does and we get away with it like '07-'08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Wonder if we will have a mild Nina fall. As always, the NAO is the wildcard, so have to throw that in there..but seems like we could be setting up for it???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Wonder if we will have a mild Nina fall. As always, the NAO is the wildcard, so have to throw that in there..but seems like we could be setting up for it???? ala 1995? I'm warming up to the idea if not sold just yet. A plethory of squirrel activity in the early AM today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 ala 1995? I'm warming up to the idea if not sold just yet. A plethory of squirrel activity in the early AM today. Nice. I think the analogs would suggest this, but the NAO is the wildcard for the Fall. After all, last year laughed in the face of a stereotypical strong Nina, especially during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I also took a peek at what the ecmwf.int forecast was for OND (October/November/December) and they seem to be showing a ridge south of Anchorage (Jerry's fetish) and also something over the southern edge of the Davis Straits. Looks cool over south central Canada too. Take these FWIW. Last year, they were showing a furnace for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Kind of mad. I saved a bunch of images from the Euro's day 6 apocalyptic Christmas blizzard on my computer at home, and not on my laptop. And no one saved any in the threads. I NEED A FIX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I also took a peek at what the ecmwf.int forecast was for OND (October/November/December) and they seem to be showing a ridge south of Anchorage (Jerry's fetish) and also something over the southern edge of the Davis Straits. Looks cool over south central Canada too. Take these FWIW. Last year, they were showing a furnace for the winter. Aside from ENSO forecasts, I take any seasonal model forecast with one very small grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 This thread is helping me forget how fooking miserable it is outside with my non-working a/c...and a new puppy. Seriously, I can't believe we are just bout ready to turn the corner and look hard at the fall pattern. Time goes so fast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 This thread is helping me forget how fooking miserable it is outside with my non-working a/c...and a new puppy. Seriously, I can't believe we are just bout ready to turn the corner and look hard at the fall pattern. Time goes so fast.... Hopefully it gets cold fast, Earliest freeze ever ..etc Ice T "crop killah" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Hopefully it gets cold fast, Earliest freeze ever ..etc Ice T "crop killah" I tend to favor a nice warm September with some summer lingering, perhaps a day or two at the beach with no crowds...a crisp October with some warm days and then I like to have a moderate snow by the end of November. That's my ideal. I don't like the long long fall....take me from Indian summer to snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I tend to favor a nice warm September with some summer lingering, perhaps a day or two at the beach with no crowds...a crisp October with some warm days and then I like to have a moderate snow by the end of November. That's my ideal. I don't like the long long fall....take me from Indian summer to snow cover agreed all around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 "Can I get you anything son?" "Hi Mother Nature. Yes, I'll have one Dec 2003, one Christmas Miracle Blizzard, only can you have it amplify a little later please? Also do you still make those March 2001's? That was so good the last time I had it. Seems like a long time ago." "Sure thing. Anything to drink with that?" "Sam Adams please" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 ...DANGEROUS STORM WILL POUND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BLIZZARD WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH OF RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART. AT THE CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH THE GFS...NAM...RGEM...AND ECMWF ALL RANGE FROM 965 TO 972 MB...EQUIVALENT PRESSURE TO THAT OF A HURRICANE. THE GFS ENSEMBLES PLACE THE LOW OVER CAPE COD AND ARE THE FARTHEST WEST. THE REMAINDER HAVE IT PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. THIS JUST-INSIDE-THE-BENCHMARK LOCATION MEANS THAT PROLIFIC SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...WITH 15 TO 20 INCHES FORECAST THERE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 20 INCHES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HPC WWD AMOUNTS. MODEL PRECIPITATION WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE IN THAT CORRIDOR. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE WORST BETWEEN 7 PM AND ABOUT 4 AM. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY SNOW MAY ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. THOSE WITH HEART CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO SHOVEL IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 "Can I get you anything son?" "Hi Mother Nature. Yes, I'll have one Dec 2003, one Christmas Miracle Blizzard, only can you have it amplify a little later please? Also do you still make those March 2001's? That was so good the last time I had it. Seems like a long time ago." "Sure thing. Anything to drink with that?" "Sam Adams please" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Well '95-'96 was a first year weak Nina that still had some slight STJ hangover from the previous moderate Nino the year before. But I certainly wouldn't rule out a pattern like that given the recent state of the NAO/AO and a negative QBO this winter. I might put '00-'01 as an analog....except you don't get screwed by the 12/30 storm. I don't think I could handle that... my mind might explode. 462" of snowfall on Mansfield (571" at Jay Peak and 488" at Smugglers Notch) with a settled snow depth over 130" at the co-op. Even down in the ski towns there was over 200" of snowfall and snowpacks over 5 feet. That was a year that'll be hard to touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Alright, I've really been on a winter kick in the last few weeks, and I might finally have some free time next week, so hopefully I can try out some ideas for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 The scale is about to TIP, oh baby, KATLA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I don't think I could handle that... my mind might explode. 462" of snowfall on Mansfield (571" at Jay Peak and 488" at Smugglers Notch) with a settled snow depth over 130" at the co-op. Even down in the ski towns there was over 200" of snowfall and snowpacks over 5 feet. That was a year that'll be hard to touch. I don't think Mansfield is a good marker....mansfield does well in some of the worst winters because of the magic upslope. (Hence why I moved....). I don't know why but Im not feeling great about this winter. My gut says after two over performing winters I'm thinking we regress to a warmer pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 done with the paper and presentation and all! Now onto FULL WINTER MODE! I hope to have a seasonal outlook written up next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 done with the paper and presentation and all! Now onto FULL WINTER MODE! I hope to have a seasonal outlook written up next week How did ya do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 How did ya do? Pretty good, I think. A lot better than I hoped. Back to good ol' New England on Saturday! This winter is going to be legendary boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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