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Winter 2011-2012


ORH_wxman

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Probably thinking of December 5-7, 2003. That was an excellent storm for sure. It was my last 20+"

Yeah that was over 20" up here, too. In fact, December 2003 was BTV's 2nd snowiest December on record with over 50" for the month. I was at UVM and we had two 18"+ events and one 10" event among a few nickle and dime snowfalls. Mt Mansfield (18 miles east of BTV) exceeded 100" during that month. I'd take that again in a heart-beat lol.

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That was it. Man, that was almost 8 years ago. Sounds cliche, but it feels like it was just a few winters back.

Great memories, great pic. Tedy had just stepped into the endzone with the 4th quarter pick that sealed the game. Some of the Dolphins may not be thawed out yet!

Jay Peak recorded 144" that month, with storms of 47" and 34" later but "only" 30" from 12/6-7. They had 100" OG on 12/19/03, their 2nd deepest snowpack. (Jan. 1994 reached 110".)

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ECMWF multi-model forecast going lower than June now for ENSO...we'll what the actual ECMWF forecast is when they update it which should be fairly shortly. This ensemble though has a better verification than the ECMWF itself....but the CFS might be gaining a bit of support:

ninoplumeseuropublic342.gif

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ECMWF multi-model forecast going lower than June now for ENSO...we'll what the actual ECMWF forecast is when they update it which should be fairly shortly. This ensemble though has a better verification than the ECMWF itself....but the CFS might be gaining a bit of support:

ninoplumeseuropublic342.gif

AIT.

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Great memories, great pic. Tedy had just stepped into the endzone with the 4th quarter pick that sealed the game. Some of the Dolphins may not be thawed out yet!

Jay Peak recorded 144" that month, with storms of 47" and 34" later but "only" 30" from 12/6-7. They had 100" OG on 12/19/03, their 2nd deepest snowpack. (Jan. 1994 reached 110".)

One of my epic misses....stuck in Dallas and unable to get back. Never again will I go to DFW in winter. I was there for Superstorm 1993.

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It's funny how people are still haunted by 1999-2000, even though it was about as far from a normal Nina as you can get (for the CONUS as a whole)...even after 2007-08, 2008-09, 2010-11....

A lot of people were obsessed with the late 90s Nina analogs before last winter.

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The one interesting thing about that winter, was the impenetrable snowpack in early January. We had a bulletproof snowpack after some rain that fell, in early January. Didn't last long, though.

I think you are thinking of Jan '99, in 2000, we didn't get our first snowfall until 1/13...latest first measurable on record. We had that really cold snowstorm in early Jan '99 but then we torched into the 50s later that storm and then it all froze.

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A lot of people were obsessed with the late 90s Nina analogs before last winter.

isnt a matter of how strong the la nina is though? weak la nina is our second snowiest enso signal after weak el nino. The late 90s la ninas werent weak, except the 00-01 one I think, and in multiyear la ninas of that nature, we typically get colder and snowier in the 2nd or 3rd year-- 08-09 was another example of this.

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isnt a matter of how strong the la nina is though? weak la nina is our second snowiest enso signal after weak el nino. The late 90s la ninas werent weak, except the 00-01 one I think, and in multiyear la ninas of that nature, we typically get colder and snowier in the 2nd or 3rd year-- 08-09 was another example of this.

No, not necessarily. Last year was a borderline strong Nina...high end moderate. A lot of people assumed that meant a torch in the CONUS. Stronger Ninas tend to produce more of a SE ridge, but it can be offset by the NAO which is what happened last winter.

I found that in those torch CONUS years, we had a big vortex in the Bering Straight region. It happened in the late 90s and also in '05-'06 borderline weak Nina.

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I think you are thinking of Jan '99, in 2000, we didn't get our first snowfall until 1/13...latest first measurable on record. We had that really cold snowstorm in early Jan '99 but then we torched into the 50s later that storm and then it all froze.

Yeah you're right I think. I had to go back...I could have sworn it was in 2000. I get '98-'99 and '99-'00 sometimes mixed up. I was away at PSU during those years, so it sometimes it get jumbled up. Pretty sure it was before the OES bomb on the 1/13/99.

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No, not necessarily. Last year was a borderline strong Nina...high end moderate. A lot of people assumed that meant a torch in the CONUS. Stronger Ninas tend to produce more of a SE ridge, but it can be offset by the NAO which is what happened last winter.

I found that in those torch CONUS years, we had a big vortex in the Bering Straight region. It happened in the late 90s and also in '05-'06 borderline weak Nina.

yes last year was more like the low solar mod-strong ninas from the 1910s.... that threw everyone for a major surprise-- no one expected that at all.

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No, not necessarily. Last year was a borderline strong Nina...high end moderate. A lot of people assumed that meant a torch in the CONUS. Stronger Ninas tend to produce more of a SE ridge, but it can be offset by the NAO which is what happened last winter.

I found that in those torch CONUS years, we had a big vortex in the Bering Straight region. It happened in the late 90s and also in '05-'06 borderline weak Nina.

I remember Chuck was using the late 1990s Ninas as leading analogs at one point leading up to last winter...

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I think you are thinking of Jan '99, in 2000, we didn't get our first snowfall until 1/13...latest first measurable on record. We had that really cold snowstorm in early Jan '99 but then we torched into the 50s later that storm and then it all froze.

Wasnt there also a snowstorm in March 1999 that was pretty big? January 2000, everyone remembers that lol.

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Yeah you're right I think. I had to go back...I could have sworn it was in 2000. I get '98-'99 and '99-'00 sometimes mixed up. I was away at PSU during those years, so it sometimes it get jumbled up. Pretty sure it was before the OES bomb on the 1/13/99.

There were a couple crappy snow events about a week about the Jan 13, 1999 storm....so that might have been it. In 2000, we had bare ground until Jan 13th.

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Those that were considering factors like the SOI, NAO tendencies, and NPI weren't that surprised. ;)

I was def surprised how blocky the NAO region got. I wasn't expecting the most -NAO December on record, lol. I wasn't shocked that we had plenty of cold air supply. It definitely seemed to be more like those 1950s Ninas leading up to it. Really since '07-'08 its been more like those Ninas which isn't coincidence considering the SST change/shift in the PAC.

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I was def surprised how blocky the NAO region got. I wasn't expecting the most -NAO December on record, lol. I wasn't shocked that we had plenty of cold air supply. It definitely seemed to be more like those 1950s Ninas leading up to it. Really since '07-'08 its been more like those Ninas which isn't coincidence considering the SST change/shift in the PAC.

Well yeah, no one could have expected the NAO to be that negative early on. But there were plenty of signs the winter was more likely to be blockier and more similar to 1950s and earlier Ninas than the +PDO phase Ninas, that's for sure.

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Wasnt there also a snowstorm in March 1999 that was pretty big? January 2000, everyone remembers that lol.

March '99 actually was fun for a 10 day stretch or so. I actually had TSSN during the early morning of March 7th as a band of heavy snow went through. We had another interior storm on the 12th and then the 14th hit the south coast pretty hard. Those are the March months that I miss. None of this 42 and sunny crap.

Obviously we had the big Cape storm in February too.

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