OKpowdah Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 June QBO down to 3.90 from 10.02 in May Beautifully in sync with 1993, and lagging 2000 by a month or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 June QBO down to 3.90 from 10.02 in May Beautifully in sync with 1993, and lagging 2000 by a month or two Both winters were awesome here but '93-'94 much better for the coast. Hopefully we get similar results. CFS still going for a moderate Nina, but its likely too aggressive. The Euro had been going neutral..maybe negative neutral, though their July update should be out in about a week. So probably something like the Euro with a little bit of weighted CFS thrown in might be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Both winters were awesome here but '93-'94 much better for the coast. Hopefully we get similar results. CFS still going for a moderate Nina, but its likely too aggressive. The Euro had been going neutral..maybe negative neutral, though their July update should be out in about a week. So probably something like the Euro with a little bit of weighted CFS thrown in might be my guess. That's a nice combo: weak Niña, low solar/-QBO, and the -NAO regime we've been in. Starting to get a lot more confident we see an above average winter if not a blockbuster, although it seems as if we're getting too many blockbusters these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Lets get that block up we currently have over the arctic..lol. That's awesome looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Lets get that block up we currently have over the arctic..lol. That's awesome looking. I'm pretty excited about the manifestation of the -AO/-NAO we're seeing this summer. The blocking was slipping in late-winter/spring, but it has come roaring back as has been the tendency since Summer 2008, near constant high-latitude ridging. CPC AO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I think the approach to take for this winter outlook will be "what can go wrong" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I'm pretty excited about the manifestation of the -AO/-NAO we're seeing this summer. The blocking was slipping in late-winter/spring, but it has come roaring back as has been the tendency since Summer 2008, near constant high-latitude ridging. CPC AO: Yeah it's interesting for sure. I don't know exactly what it means for the winter...but at least the factors will be there for blocking to be facilitated. Still doesn't mean it can't stink, but some of the factors are nice. Not really much you can say at this stage of the game either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 I'm pretty excited about the manifestation of the -AO/-NAO we're seeing this summer. The blocking was slipping in late-winter/spring, but it has come roaring back as has been the tendency since Summer 2008, near constant high-latitude ridging. CPC AO: There has been shown to be some weak fourier signal around 195 days, or about 6.5 months. So a -NAO centered around JJA, which looks about right, would support a -NAO this winter (specifically the latter half) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Wasn't 1993-94 a great winter DESPITE unfavorable NAO? I think strong -AO working against the NAO sign and a ginormous PNA signal brought the gold that winter. I can't for the life of me see how anything coming up would be comparable but call me a skeptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Wasn't 1993-94 a great winter DESPITE unfavorable NAO? I think strong -AO working against the NAO sign and a ginormous PNA signal brought the gold that winter. I can't for the life of me see how anything coming up would be comparable but call me a skeptic. The AO was only slightly negative, and the NAO was quite positive...you are correct; it was the PNA/EPO that allowed for Winter 93-94 to be a cold one. There was an insane block over Alaska and the Beaufort Sea that caused a strong polar vortex to settle into Hudson Bay in January and February; this PV was probably enhanced by the Pinatubo eruption which had cooled the globe substantially...Here was the 500mb map for that winter, insane ridge north of AK: I agree with your assessment that this winter will probably feature a very different pattern. I believe we'll see more help from the NAO/AO but a potentially more variable Pacific with a -PDO/weak Niña, which sometimes features troughing over Alaska allowing the East Coast to warm up without a stout NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 After June's big -NAO number came in...we are now at 31 of the last 39 months with a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Anyone have anymore good winter premonitions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Anyone have anymore good winter premonitions? Knee deep Powdah Is in my future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Knee deep Powdah Is in my future. I see a horizontally-moving white wall, illuminated by frequent strokes of lightning, followed immediately by loud crashes of thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 I see a horizontally-moving white wall, illuminated by frequent strokes of lightning, followed immediately by loud crashes of thunder http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2005-O-NEW-KBOX-WS-W-0002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 656 WWUS41 KBOX 121151WSWBOXURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA651 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2008...MAJOR WINTER STORM LINGERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING....LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING LONG ISLAND WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERNNEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILLFALL THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID MORNING. AIR TEMPERATURES INSOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTSARE AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVYRAIN AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAS CAUSE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THEAREA.MAZ011-121300-/O.CAN.KBOX.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-081212T1200Z/EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SPRINGFIELD651 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2008...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS CANCELLED THE WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN HAMPDEN COUNTY HAVE RISEN TO THE MID30S.$$MAZ002>006-008>010-012-026-NHZ011-012-015-121500-/O.CON.KBOX.IS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-081212T1500Z/WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...MILFORD...WORCESTER...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE651 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2008...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THISMORNING...AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THISMORNING. THE WARNING COVERS ALL OF CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES WITHMAJOR IMPACT LIKELY IN THE MONADNOCKS. THE WARNING ALSO INCLUDESTHE WORCESTER HILLS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES IN NORTHERNAND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING WORCESTER...FRANKLIN...HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN HAMPDEN COUNTIES.TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AND HEAVY RAIN ARE CAUSING ICEACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN ONE-HALF INCH AND ONE INCH. THIS ISCAUSING TREES AND TREE BRANCHES TO BREAK AND FALL. THERE HAVEALSO BEEN REPORTS OF TELEPHONE POLES BEING BROUGHT DOWN BY ICE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY...AND THERAIN WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING.UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS ARE LIKELY HAZARDOUS. IF TRAVELINGYOU SHOULD ALLOW PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATIONOR CONSIDER ALTERING OR DELAYING YOUR TRAVEL PLANS. THE ROUTE2 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WILL BE HAZARDOUS...WITHROAD CLOSURES REPORTED NEAR FITCHBURG.THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH LONG DURATION POWER OUTAGESEXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE MONADNOCK REGION AND WORCESTER HILLS.AN ICE STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR ICE ACCRETION OF ONE HALF INCHOR GREATER. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. ICE ACCRETIONCOULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. IF YOUR POWERGOES OUT...DO NOT USE CANDLES. HAVE BATTERIES AND FLASHLIGHTS ONHAND. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...ANDWATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.$$EVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Just a few trees and poles brought down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Yes, I know, I'm a sick sick person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 one of the most exciting threads on the board. 91 pages in less than a day when all the NCEP guidance locked onto the Boxing Day blizzard. note post #7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 one of the most exciting threads on the board. 91 pages in less than a day when all the NCEP guidance locked onto the Boxing Day blizzard. http://www.americanw...7-storm-threat/ note post #7 This was when Bob could not start a thread that failed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 This was when Bob could not start a thread that failed... So so true! I think we need to employ him to start all threads this winter too, until his first failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 It wouldn't surprise me if this year sucked.. the east coast had had 6 KUs in the past two years.. not going on science but just a hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 It was honestly a Christmas miracle. Possibly the most fun I've had tracking a storm. So cool that at 1am Christmas morning, the board was packed waiting for the Euro!!! Not too often do you get busts in the positive direction like this. And always keeping in mind the historical storm the Euro had at day 6, 7. I can't get over it! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 It wouldn't surprise me if this year sucked.. the east coast had had 6 KUs in the past two years.. not going on science but just a hunch Your posts never go on science, so you don't need to include that disclaimer. We just assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 It was honestly a Christmas miracle. Possibly the most fun I've had tracking a storm. So cool that at 1am Christmas morning, the board was packed waiting for the Euro!!! Not too often do you get busts in the positive direction like this. And always keeping in mind the historical storm the Euro had at day 6, 7. I can't get over it! lol It was a positive bust then a negative bust except for BOS and WMA.. ask tip what he thinks about this storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 It was a positive bust then a negative bust except for BOS and WMA.. ask tip what he thinks about this storm lol Overall an incredible positive bust. In the near term, yes it was let down for actually a lot of SNE, but still better than what was forecasted around day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 It was a positive bust then a negative bust except for BOS and WMA.. ask tip what he thinks about this storm lol This was one of the most powerful storms in recent memory. Yeah parts of central mass down through CT got caught in a dead zone , but to have places like Orange MA gust to almost 50kts is unheard of. Not to mention the coastal flooding too. An incredible storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Overall an incredible positive bust. In the near term, yes it was let down for actually a lot of SNE, but still better than what was forecasted around day 3 I remember the season started with the Turkey day threat thread.. then it was missed setup after missed setup.. then along came this monster and if it didn't hit people were ready to give up on the season.. I'd really like a post mortem Scott Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 This was one of the most powerful storms in recent memory. Yeah parts of central mass down through CT got caught in a dead zone , but to have places like Orange MA gust to almost 50kts is unheard of. Not to mention the coastal flooding too. An incredible storm. Yeah what was the cause of the dead zone? Could it be that the storm was almost TOO strong? Wasn't it like low 970s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Yeah what was the cause of the dead zone? Could it be that the storm was almost TOO strong? Wasn't it like low 970s? Well we had two very distinct areas of lift. One associated with strong low level frontogenesis and lift over se mass and the other area was more with the mid level frontogenesis and deformation in western mass. The susbsidence zone was because of the lift in eastern mass. When air rises in one spot, it must come down in another spot. Usually, it occurs downstream of the lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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