Winter 2011-2012

[Ginx snewx]

It'll be very interesting to see if the Pacific reaches El Nino status this winter. Every recorded strong Nino event has been followed by an extended period of neutral or La Nina conditions, and has never been followed by another El Nino by the second winter (as would be the case following the 09-10 event)

NOAA press release today says el neutral.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would take a few SNE "real" severe events over a few moderate snowstorms any day, just me though

Agreed, but I could deal with a good 'ole fashion cold winter accompanied by a string of mod events, after being blessed with last winter.

HECS monkey is off my back....I was satisfied.

[weathafella]

I remain unfortunately not optimistic. Many things working against us imho. Still too early to commit but if I had to today I'd go with 1/2 normal snowfall or less.

[CoastalWx]

I remain unfortunately not optimistic. Many things working against us imho. Still too early to commit but if I had to today I'd go with 1/2 normal snowfall or less.

A clunker is due, but I hope you're not right. I think one important feature to keep a casual eye on, is the NAO behavior over the next few months.

[weathafella]

A clunker is due, but I hope your not right. I think one important feature to keep a casual eye on, is the NAO behavior over the next few months.

I strongly agree.

[Ginx snewx]

Well sucks Jerry is not on board. Lining up my ducks but I switched up from being not impressed to be solidly confidant of a colder wetter winter than last year, snow amounts should be above average region wide with NNE jackpot big time. Think it will be a hybrid a/b year, colder later than early. First call Jackpot: Dryslut

[WeatherX]

A clunker is due, but I hope you're not right. I think one important feature to keep a casual eye on, is the NAO behavior over the next few months.

NAO seems to be verifying on the negative index side lately not sure about anomaly placement though, not that it matters much now. I'm hearing we should also watch the behavior of the AAO leading our winter as they go through theirs in the SH....someone should run a correlation scheme for that.

[WeatherX]

The other thing I would be somewhat concerned about is if we don't get a strong ENSO signal this winter too much -NAO probably will not be helpful. Of course someone like Will can do a snapshot of neutral ENSO years and -/+ NAO seasons just for measure.

I'm fairly optimistic today for a normal snowfall here, which isn't saying much for the rest of you lol......beggars can't be choosers.

[OKpowdah]

I remain unfortunately not optimistic. Many things working against us imho. Still too early to commit but if I had to today I'd go with 1/2 normal snowfall or less.

mildly disagree ... not strongly yet

I haven't taken a close look at anything yet. Actually, I haven't really worked on any seasonal forecasts since last summer, so take anything I say with a grain of salt. Hopefully I'll grab some time / motivation in the next few months to start looking at the upcoming winter more closely.

With that said, I've glanced at a few things...

Easterly QBO shear zone is descending steadily now, and we should be in a decreasing negative state this winter, which is very supportive for SSWs. Could see a major warming in January that sends some significant, near record breaking cold into the region for February. Right now I'm thinking something like Jan-Feb 1994 on steroids. MECS late January and plenty of opportunities in February to rack up the totals. December will be slow to start but middle to late offers some activity

[40/70 Benchmark]

I remain unfortunately not optimistic. Many things working against us imho. Still too early to commit but if I had to today I'd go with 1/2 normal snowfall or less.

Jerry, that is ridiculous to say at this stage....I have had 5 winters out of the past 51 seasons fall into that paltry of a percentile.

Exactly what do you see conspiring against us at this extended lead to make this one of the worst winters in history.....

[weathafella]

Jerry, that is ridiculous to say at this stage....I have had 5 winters out of the past 51 seasons fall into that paltry of a percentile.

Exactly what do you see conspiring against us at this extended lead to make this one of the worst winters in history.....

Stinker is not among the worst in history. eg: 20-22 inches in Boston is awful but there have been several worse in the past 20 years. (1994-5, 2001-02, 2006-07). Roughly in the "as bad" category would be 1991-92 and 1999-00. So it's not as rare as you think.

1. 2nd year Nina despite signs. Typically not good.

2. Weaker NAO or even positive.

3. Strengthening sun.

4. The law of averages. 3 of the past 4 have been decently above and one was suppressed due to NAO. To achieve 4 of 5, while possible and done in the past, odds are long. I think it happened only once or twice in the past 135 years.

Best analogs, 2001-02 and 1999-00. Biggest weight 1999-00 which would produce a short intensefly cold and snowy period which will bring most of our snow and cold. I hope I'm wrong and again, June is too early to make this official. Indicies can change over the summer.

[OKpowdah]

Stinker is not among the worst in history. eg: 20-22 inches in Boston is awful but there have been several worse in the past 20 years. (1994-5, 2001-02, 2006-07). Roughly in the "as bad" category would be 1991-92 and 1999-00. So it's not as rare as you think.

1. 2nd year Nina despite signs. Typically not good.

2. Weaker NAO or even positive.

3. Strengthening sun.

4. The law of averages. 3 of the past 4 have been decently above and one was suppressed due to NAO. To achieve 4 of 5, while possible and done in the past, odds are long. I think it happened only once or twice in the past 135 years.

Best analogs, 2001-02 and 1999-00. Biggest weight 1999-00 which would produce a short intensefly cold and snowy period which will bring most of our snow and cold. I hope I'm wrong and again, June is too early to make this official. Indicies can change over the summer.

1. ENSO is more likely to be neutral to warm IMO, but either way, the effects of a "second year Nina" should be moot

2. Not sure what your premise for that is, but given the descending easterly QBO and tendency for a warming Pacific, I wouldn't bet on a +NAO

3. I know nothing about solar stuff lol

4. That's a stupid argument that never works

[free_man]

Stinker is not among the worst in history. eg: 20-22 inches in Boston is awful but there have been several worse in the past 20 years. (1994-5, 2001-02, 2006-07). Roughly in the "as bad" category would be 1991-92 and 1999-00. So it's not as rare as you think.

1. 2nd year Nina despite signs. Typically not good.

2. Weaker NAO or even positive.

3. Strengthening sun.

4. The law of averages. 3 of the past 4 have been decently above and one was suppressed due to NAO. To achieve 4 of 5, while possible and done in the past, odds are long. I think it happened only once or twice in the past 135 years.

Best analogs, 2001-02 and 1999-00. Biggest weight 1999-00 which would produce a short intensefly cold and snowy period which will bring most of our snow and cold. I hope I'm wrong and again, June is too early to make this official. Indicies can change over the summer.

Talking snowfall amounts in June? C'mon Jerry, you cannot be serious. Last winter even the "correct" forecasts as they want to call them, completely blew the monthlies - which in reality goes to show there was more guesswork than anything else. Such is long range forecasting, I guess.

[Chrisrotary12]

http://charlie.wxcaster.com/model/conus/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_400HR.gif

Nice Lakes Cutter for Christmas. This thing is awesome. Glad you guys mentioned it.

[weathafella]

1. ENSO is more likely to be neutral to warm IMO, but either way, the effects of a "second year Nina" should be moot

2. Not sure what your premise for that is, but given the descending easterly QBO and tendency for a warming Pacific, I wouldn't bet on a +NAO

3. I know nothing about solar stuff lol

4. That's a stupid argument that never works

It is a stupid argument but in fact it works. eg: Chances of 23 consecurive days 90+ are very low. But after 22 the chances on day 23 are no lower than day 1. That said, for long range forecasting, it may be the most valid argument. It's a slightly educated guess. Most were terrible last year the prior summer and people thought I was out of my mind when I repeated big winter. Steve and I were called big weenies but we were right.

[weathafella]

Talking snowfall amounts in June? C'mon Jerry, you cannot be serious. Last winter even the "correct" forecasts as they want to call them, completely blew the monthlies - which in reality goes to show there was more guesswork than anything else. Such is long range forecasting, I guess.

I'm giving my opinion "unofficially". It is mostly guesswork even with closer lead time.

[Logan11]

The lowest snowfall total here since I started keeping records was the 62" in 2005-2006. I didn't keep records in 03-04 and 04-05, but I was around here on the unoccupied property and those winters definitely well exceeded that 62".

So IMO in a worst case scenario ...I'll get at least 60" ...even if the winter is a so called stinker.

Stinker is not among the worst in history. eg: 20-22 inches in Boston is awful but there have been several worse in the past 20 years. (1994-5, 2001-02, 2006-07). Roughly in the "as bad" category would be 1991-92 and 1999-00. So it's not as rare as you think.

1. 2nd year Nina despite signs. Typically not good.

2. Weaker NAO or even positive.

3. Strengthening sun.

4. The law of averages. 3 of the past 4 have been decently above and one was suppressed due to NAO. To achieve 4 of 5, while possible and done in the past, odds are long. I think it happened only once or twice in the past 135 years.

Best analogs, 2001-02 and 1999-00. Biggest weight 1999-00 which would produce a short intensefly cold and snowy period which will bring most of our snow and cold. I hope I'm wrong and again, June is too early to make this official. Indicies can change over the summer.

[ORH_wxman]

The lowest snowfall total here since I started keeping records was the 62" in 2005-2006. I didn't keep records in 03-04 and 04-05, but I was around here on the unoccupied property and those winters definitely well exceeded that 62".

So IMO in a worst case scenario ...I'll get at least 60" ...even if the winter is a so called stinker.

You're probably lucky you weren't there for some of the putrid 1990s or 1980s winters. The interior has survived complete disasters in the 2000s. BOS had 2 disasters...'06-'07 and '01-'02 with 17" and 15" respectively but we didn't have as bad a year in the interior either year relative to avg (50" and 45" respectively) and probably even less so over in your area from my memory of each winter. But I'll bet '94-'95, '90-'91, '84-'85 and '88-'89 were all disasters there. All of those had <40" here and 2 of them <30" and I don't recall many '07 VD type storms those years. '99-'00 was a disaster here but there was a big April storm out in that direction that probably saved it from being a horror show. Also 1/25/00 was much better out there.

[Ginx snewx]

mildly disagree ... not strongly yet

I haven't taken a close look at anything yet. Actually, I haven't really worked on any seasonal forecasts since last summer, so take anything I say with a grain of salt. Hopefully I'll grab some time / motivation in the next few months to start looking at the upcoming winter more closely.

With that said, I've glanced at a few things...

Easterly QBO shear zone is descending steadily now, and we should be in a decreasing negative state this winter, which is very supportive for SSWs. Could see a major warming in January that sends some significant, near record breaking cold into the region for February. Right now I'm thinking something like Jan-Feb 1994 on steroids. MECS late January and plenty of opportunities in February to rack up the totals. December will be slow to start but middle to late offers some activity

Incredible close to my early read, come Nov we will see how things are evolving NAO wise.

[ski MRG]

It is a stupid argument but in fact it works. eg: Chances of 23 consecurive days 90+ are very low. But after 22 the chances on day 23 are no lower than day 1. That said, for long range forecasting, it may be the most valid argument. It's a slightly educated guess. Most were terrible last year the prior summer and people thought I was out of my mind when I repeated big winter. Steve and I were called big weenies but we were right.

I made the call in April as did Steve. You were late to the party.

[CoastalWx]

I think a few would agree that if we get off to a slower start...that's fine if we can get an active February and March. I love snowy Decembers, but having things come to a halt in February and March, is getting annoying.

[weathafella]

I made the call in April as did Steve. You were late to the party.

Nah you were late. You were mild until others chimed in. I'll recant if you can bumb some old eastern post.

[weathafella]

I think a few would agree that if we get off to a slower start...that's fine if we can get an active February and March. I love snowy Decembers, but having things come to a halt in February and March, is getting annoying.

I'm not sure how I feel about this. I always place a big premium on early snows due to their ability to hold the pack as seen last year.

[Logan11]

Back in the 80's and 90's I was keeping records down in Saugerties....

Here are those "bad" winters your mentioned there in the valley:

84-85: 60' ALB = 41.3" (not sure why I did better ...maybe coastal events they missed)

88-89: 20" ALB = 19.0" Hah ..that had to be bad everywhere....worst of my life.

90-91: 33" ALB = 28.7"

94-95: 35" ALB = 30.9"

'Oh and 91-92 was very bad in Saugerties with only 23" ALB = 30.7"

If any of those years had a decent LES situation off Lake Ontario then maybe you could throw in another 15-20" of nickel and dime stuff here from that, but it all depends on the particular wx pattern.

One thing you can see there is being 40 miles to the north of Saugerties often didn't buy Albany much more snowfall. HV was bad in general despite latitude.

You're probably lucky you weren't there for some of the putrid 1990s or 1980s winters. The interior has survived complete disasters in the 2000s. BOS had 2 disasters...'06-'07 and '01-'02 with 17" and 15" respectively but we didn't have as bad a year in the interior either year relative to avg (50" and 45" respectively) and probably even less so over in your area from my memory of each winter. But I'll bet '94-'95, '90-'91, '84-'85 and '88-'89 were all disasters there. All of those had <40" here and 2 of them <30" and I don't recall many '07 VD type storms those years. '99-'00 was a disaster here but there was a big April storm out in that direction that probably saved it from being a horror show. Also 1/25/00 was much better out there.

[Logan11]

You saying Big Big Winter Incoming again?

I made the call in April as did Steve. You were late to the party.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not sure how I feel about this. I always place a big premium on early snows due to their ability to hold the pack as seen last year.

I'm tired of a horrible March and a quiet February. I don't mean to have a snowless December, but lets take some of the 30" of snow we've been getting during that month, and spread it out a little. I don't like this "winter grinding to a halt in February" trend we've been getting. At least we had a little snow on 4/1 this year.

[CoastalWx]

NAO seems to be verifying on the negative index side lately not sure about anomaly placement though, not that it matters much now. I'm hearing we should also watch the behavior of the AAO leading our winter as they go through theirs in the SH....someone should run a correlation scheme for that.

There will be good blocking moving towards northeast Canada over the next 10 days or so. Strong -NAO signal. It looks to rise perhaps later in the period, but it seems like any heat that tries to make it in here, will be brief.

[weathafella]

There will be good blocking moving towards northeast Canada over the next 10 days or so. Strong -NAO signal. It looks to rise perhaps later in the period, but it seems like any heat that tries to make it in here, will be brief.

Euro suggests that by the solstice we're in a stable hot pattern but that's last night's run and digression from this thread.

Alot of wildcards. The volcanoes and the sun among the biggest 2. While volanoes have occured, not to the extent that it should make a difference imho.

[Logan11]

For me personally the period from the end of the snow (March etc.) to around late June is just a disaster... dead ugly landscape with no snow cover anymore through late April, mud, mud, mud, then tree pollen, backdoors or early unpleasant heat waves, but rarely pleasant... Need I say more. LOL

Thank god we are almost done with that stretch.... I hate the thought of it when it's getting toward late February and you see the end of winter coming into focus.

I'm tired of a horrible March and a quiet February. I don't mean to have a snowless December, but lets take some of the 30" of snow we've been getting during that month, and spread it out a little. I don't like this "winter grinding to a halt in February" trend we've been getting. At least we had a little snow on 4/1 this year.

[CoastalWx]

Euro suggests that by the solstice we're in a stable hot pattern but that's last night's run and digression from this thread.

Alot of wildcards. The volcanoes and the sun among the biggest 2. While volanoes have occured, not to the extent that it should make a difference imho.

Yeah that's when the NAO tries to turn + and send the heat in, but we'll see how that looks over the next few days.

I'm not sure the volcanoes have penetrated the Stratosphere deep enough with SO2, but the recent Chilean volcano may have done it for a brief time. We really need an explosive eruption to send S02 deep into the Stratosphere.