Winter 2011-2012

[A-L-E-X]

Youre an awesome person, but I think youre forgetting some things both about the 08-09 winter and about NYC climatology.

Let's start with the 2008-09 winter.

Central NJ and points southward, including Philly and Delaware, saw two significant snowstorms that winter, both of which dumped 8-12 inches or so-- the first was in February and the second one was the storm in March we all remember. Remember the norlun set up around Philly, South Jersey and Delaware and dumped up to 10 inches there in February, while Central Jersey got 6-8 inches and we got 4-6 inches here. This was a storm originally supposed to cut to our west.

And then there was the storm in March which dumped 8-12 inches over most of the area. All this after a January which, while it lacked a big ticket event, featured lots of minor events with our first cold January in years and continuous snow cover which exceeded 09-10 by a mile.

Ok now let's move onto the heat issue. You do realize that NYC doesnt represent the city very well, right? Just look at today, JFK and I hit 91 and they were stuck in the 80s. They have a foliage problem dude! That record from 1936 is a red herring, as LGA hit 107 in July 1966, JFK hit 104 on the same day and EWR has hit 105 multiple times over the past two decades. You have to look at everything before you jump to conclusions like this bro.

Instead of going by the highest extreme, how about we judge how often we have been getting 90 degree days? NYC was more representative in the 90s, and set records in 91 and 93 and July 1999 was the hottest month on record there, dude. They should have broken all those records in 2010 but the foliage problem gave them 3x as many 89 degree days as any of the surrounding spots and they missed the record hottest month by 0.1 degree because of it too. All the other stations; LGA, EWR and JFK broke their hottest summer, hottest month, and LGA and JFK set new all time records for number of 90 and 95 degree days by a mile! We also all had multiple 100 degree days (either 2, 3 or 4, depending on the location)-- which matches the super heatwave from 1993.

[A-L-E-X]

I was mostly talking about NJ in that post...areas like where Earthlight lives got really screwed in 08-09, changing to rain after 3-4" in the 12/19 storm and then getting dryslotted and finishing with 4" in the 3/1 storm. It wasn't as bad for Long Island as they saw a nice jackpot in the March Miller A, with up to 16" falling in western Suffolk County, so I wasn't really talking about JFK area. For folks in Central NJ, the 08-09 winter was a completely different one from what happened in Westchester, with the two big events delivering only 8" compared to my 18", and also not getting as much in the 1/28 SW flow event which dropped nearly 6" at my house and was only a minor snowfall down there. I figure Earthlight had 20-25" compared to the 45-50" that fell in Westchester, which is a significant difference.

As Scott has pointed out, it's all relative when talking about elevation. Having a home right near 425' hills is a pretty big deal in NYC metro where 99% of the population lives right at sea level; sure it doesn't make that much of a difference, but those inches add up over time, especially when you get a marginal event like the 2/25/10 Snowicane. There's quite a noticeable contrast in snowfall, and particularly snow cover, when you go from the urbanized downtown at 50' elevation on the Hudson River to the nature preserve behind my house, a thick beech-maple forest that averages near 400' elevation and has no buildings or roads whatsoever. For example, this past winter, the snowpack downtown was mostly around 18-20", whereas the well-protected wooded hollows in the nature preserve had close to 30" in the deepest areas. Elevation is all relative: I love our vacation home at 1500' in the Poconos and have gone there for many a snowstorm, but it doesn't seem so high up anymore after living at 4600' in St. Mary, MT last summer and routinely hiking above 10,000'. Montana doesn't seem that high when I reflect on my trip to Chile, where I had a view of the 20,000' peaks from Santiago and was hiking in the foothills of the Chilean Lakes District admiring perennially snow-capped mountains like El Tronador at 13,000'...

Also, most of the population of SNE doesn't live in places that average that much more than Dobbs Ferry. There's a ton of people along the I-95 corridor, which goes through some decidedly not snowy areas in SE CT and RI, quite a few of which average less than here. I would venture that all the way from the NY/CT border to the RI/MA border averages less than Dobbs Ferry, since you're right on the water at no elevation compared to 15-20 miles inland at 350-400' here at my place. Places like Hartford and Springfield are a bit snowier than here, but not by that much. If I moved to one of the higher spots in Westchester 15 miles north of here and 300' higher, I'd probably get as much as BDL. And, of course, we've been particularly lucky...I've averaged a shade over 60"/winter in the last three years, and just under 50" per season since 02-03 (my measurements also are conservative and some of these numbers come from downtown, so it's probably a bit more). Maybe it is just luck, or maybe the climate is changing; it's not hard to imagine how a colder regime with more blocking could cause coastal areas to see larger increases in average snowfall than the interior. Since 93-94, for example, my house in PA hasn't been doing that great compared to the big jump in Westchester's annual snowfall.

Are you serious? Look at NYC's numbers: the hottest temperature in Central Park was 106F, recorded all the way back in 1936. We haven't seen a reading of 104F since July 1977. The longest heat wave was in Aug/Sept 1953. Of the 20 longest heat waves in Central Park, only 7 have been since 1990, despite the climate being 1.5F warmer globally than it was when records began, and the increase in urban heat island. Furthermore, we've had several near-historic cool summers like 2009, 2004, and 2000...all in the last decade. Nationally, almost all the heat records for the Plains and Upper Midwest come from the 1930s Dust Bowl. Of the record high temperatures for the 50 states, only 8 have occurred since 1980, whereas 20 occurred between 1930-1936. Particularly notable is the 121F reading in Steele, ND from July 1936 and the 112F reading in Martinsburg, WV which also happened in July 1936.

I think my point stands.

Some of what you stated could easily be connected to the amount of air pollution (particulate matter) that we have in our dirty air today. I just wouldn't base anything off of one location and I think the records you referenced in other parts of the country are more a reflection of how extreme and how much of an aberration the 1930s were, rather than any global cooling trend that may have occurred since lol.

[A-L-E-X]

You said of the 20 longest heat waves at NYC, "only" 7 have occurred since 1990-- well how many did you want to see since 1990 lol? I mean youre talking about a 20 year period vs a 150 year climate record.... to get 1/3 of your longest heat waves in those 20 years is pretty damn impressive. And you ignored the fact that our top 90+ degree day summers have occurred after 1990!

[nzucker]

1. Central NJ and points southward, including Philly and Delaware, saw two significant snowstorms that winter, both of which dumped 8-12 inches or so-- the first was in February and the second one was the storm in March we all remember. Remember the norlun set up around Philly, South Jersey and Delaware and dumped up to 10 inches there in February, while Central Jersey got 6-8 inches and we got 4-6 inches here. This was a storm originally supposed to cut to our west.

2.Ok now let's move onto the heat issue. You do realize that NYC doesnt represent the city very well, right? Just look at today, JFK and I hit 91 and they were stuck in the 80s. They have a foliage problem dude! That record from 1936 is a red herring, as LGA hit 107 in July 1966, JFK hit 104 on the same day and EWR has hit 105 multiple times over the past two decades. You have to look at everything before you jump to conclusions like this bro.

Instead of going by the highest extreme, how about we judge how often we have been getting 90 degree days? NYC was more representative in the 90s, and set records in 91 and 93 and July 1999 was the hottest month on record there, dude. They should have broken all those records in 2010 but the foliage problem gave them 3x as many 89 degree days as any of the surrounding spots and they missed the record hottest month by 0.1 degree because of it too. All the other stations; LGA, EWR and JFK broke their hottest summer, hottest month, and LGA and JFK set new all time records for number of 90 and 95 degree days by a mile! We also all had multiple 100 degree days (either 2, 3 or 4, depending on the location)-- which matches the super heatwave from 1993.

1. North-Central NJ, like where Earthlight lives, did not see 8-12" from the 2/3 Norlun. EWR only had 2.9" from that event; I measured 3.25" that day. There was a distinct minimum that winter in the part of NJ that is considered within NYC metro...places like Fort Lee down to New Brunswick did not get a lot of snow. PHL was the only major station that had a warning criteria event, I believe. Also, Newark only received 6.9" from the 3/2 Miller A, and places to the SW like Scotch Plains and New Brunswick received considerably less snow, as they were in the dry slot. You are clearly pulling numbers out of your head instead of actually looking them up. I am not arguing with your point that there were good periods of snow cover and arctic cold in Winter 08-09; I agree wholeheartedly. The original discussion was about how fortunate Southern Westchester has been recently in winter storms, and I was using Winter 08-09 as an example since Dobbs Ferry did well in both 12/19 and 3/2.

2 The record from 1936 is not a red herring. Most of the nation was in the grips of an historic heat wave that summer, Alex. About 20% of the all-time state high temperatures are from Summer 1936, and nearly half are from the Dust Bowl years of 1930-1936. You do not know how much foliage Central Park had in 1936; this is a contemporary argument that has no place in a discussion about temperature records from the 1930s. This is not jumping to conclusions: everyone will agree that the 1930s and 1950s were the best decades for extreme heat. The numbers speak for themselves. It is amazing that 10 states had all-time highs in July 1936, and that temperatures were over 120F as far north as North and South Dakota, which are near the 45th parallel.

Also, I do not consider 90-degree days a good measure of extreme heat. Most of NYC metro has average highs in the 85-86F range during July...hitting 90F is not a big deal. In the change from the 1971-2000 normals to the new 1981-2010 normals, most stations in SNE had a decrease in the normal number of 90F days. This makes sense because extremely hot periods like July 1977 and July/August 1980 were lost. I agree that last year was a very hot summer, but it was mostly warm nights that propelled it past 1966. It did have some extreme heat around July 4th, but it was the exception rather than the rule in the past few summers. This summer has had no heat, 2009 had no heat, 2008 had very little except for a few days in June, 2007 was humid at times but not excessively hot...you get my point.

[nzucker]

You said of the 20 longest heat waves at NYC, "only" 7 have occurred since 1990-- well how many did you want to see since 1990 lol? I mean youre talking about a 20 year period vs a 150 year climate record.... to get 1/3 of your longest heat waves in those 20 years is pretty damn impressive. And you ignored the fact that our top 90+ degree day summers have occurred after 1990!

The regional climate has warmed about 2F in summer though since the beginnings of the records, so you could easily expect there to be more.

Also, the 1990s were a much better decade for extreme heat than the 2000s. It seems that a switch flipped after 1999 and shut off a lot of the incredibly warm/dry pattern we'd been seeing in summer. Of the 20 longest heat waves, only 2 of them came after 1999, and both are from Summer 2002. Since 2002, we haven't seen a heat wave of notable length in Central Park. This summer is not looking like a great candidate either. Considering the warm climate and UHI, it's a bit surprising that we've had no real extreme/long heat waves since Summer '02, even with 2010 being the warmest summer on record by average temperature.

[A-L-E-X]

1. North-Central NJ, like where Earthlight lives, did not see 8-12" from the 2/3 Norlun. EWR only had 2.9" from that event; I measured 3.25" that day. There was a distinct minimum that winter in the part of NJ that is considered within NYC metro...places like Fort Lee down to New Brunswick did not get a lot of snow. PHL was the only major station that had a warning criteria event, I believe. Also, Newark only received 6.9" from the 3/2 Miller A, and places to the SW like Scotch Plains and New Brunswick received considerably less snow, as they were in the dry slot. You are clearly pulling numbers out of your head instead of actually looking them up. I am not arguing with your point that there were good periods of snow cover and arctic cold in Winter 08-09; I agree wholeheartedly. The original discussion was about how fortunate Southern Westchester has been recently in winter storms, and I was using Winter 08-09 as an example since Dobbs Ferry did well in both 12/19 and 3/2.

2 The record from 1936 is not a red herring. Most of the nation was in the grips of an historic heat wave that summer, Alex. About 20% of the all-time state high temperatures are from Summer 1936, and nearly half are from the Dust Bowl years of 1930-1936. You do not know how much foliage Central Park had in 1936; this is a contemporary argument that has no place in a discussion about temperature records from the 1930s. This is not jumping to conclusions: everyone will agree that the 1930s and 1950s were the best decades for extreme heat. The numbers speak for themselves. It is amazing that 10 states had all-time highs in July 1936, and that temperatures were over 120F as far north as North and South Dakota, which are near the 45th parallel.

Also, I do not consider 90-degree days a good measure of extreme heat. Most of NYC metro has average highs in the 85-86F range during July...hitting 90F is not a big deal. In the change from the 1971-2000 normals to the new 1981-2010 normals, most stations in SNE had a decrease in the normal number of 90F days. This makes sense because extremely hot periods like July 1977 and July/August 1980 were lost. I agree that last year was a very hot summer, but it was mostly warm nights that propelled it past 1966. It did have some extreme heat around July 4th, but it was the exception rather than the rule in the past few summers. This summer has had no heat, 2009 had no heat, 2008 had very little except for a few days in June, 2007 was humid at times but not excessively hot...you get my point.

Huh? I thought the warm night issue was something we complained about in 2005-- last year the heat was accompanied by less humidity, therefore the temps dropped more at night. We were in the middle of a historic drought in 1965-1966 so that may the reason the mins were even lower that year. You also have to factor in soil moisture and rainfall dude-- not just temps in a vacuum.

You know what we use to judge hot summers by--- on that basis we have gotten a hot summer about every three years. You agree that 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2010 were hot by any standard right? If you go back to the 80s-- 1980, 1983, 1988-- once again a scorching summer about 3 times a decade bro. And if you dont like 90 degree heat, consider that both 2002 and 2010 had a record number of 95 degree days-- Im sure 95 degrees is extreme, isnt it?

I know we had a torrid summer in 1936, by red herring I mean that other parts of the New York City area have been hotter since then. I think the 1930s were an aberration, it hasnt been that hot before or since in general bro.

I remember Iso specifically stated he enjoyed both the February and March snowstorms (and received over 6 inches in both).... and he lives in Monmouth County I believe. I know that, especially with the February storm, they got more snow to our south. John was in a bad spot for the March storm, but I don't believe that was because of latitude. He was just in a subsidence zone. I got 4.5" in the storm in February and 10.5" in the March storm. Doug got around the same numbers..... we both had around 27-28" for that winter, which is pretty representative, I would think. That is about as close to an average winter as we have gotten in a long time-- usually it's one extreme or the other.

[A-L-E-X]

The regional climate has warmed about 2F in summer though since the beginnings of the records, so you could easily expect there to be more.

Also, the 1990s were a much better decade for extreme heat than the 2000s. It seems that a switch flipped after 1999 and shut off a lot of the incredibly warm/dry pattern we'd been seeing in summer. Of the 20 longest heat waves, only 2 of them came after 1999, and both are from Summer 2002. Since 2002, we haven't seen a heat wave of notable length in Central Park. This summer is not looking like a great candidate either. Considering the warm climate and UHI, it's a bit surprising that we've had no real extreme/long heat waves since Summer '02, even with 2010 being the warmest summer on record by average temperature.

Yeah, but this is probably due to higher mins. I think we're just in a cyclic pattern here dude.... I completely agree the 1990s were much better for extreme heat, but there's no reason to think it wont happen again. We talked about this on IM too-- especially when we drew the connection between epic (50") winters and scorching summers that preceded them-- 2002 was the last one before 2010. I consider 2010 on the same level, because it broke all of JFK's 2002 records (number of 95 degree days in particular) and the 1983 record of number of 90 degree days.

[CoastalWx]

Will is gonna drop the hammer on the NYC temp talk in this thread.

I will say this one thing. NYC area does have the benefit of its longitude when it comes to big snow storms. When H5 closes off near the Delmarva....look out. 2/06, 12/09, 12/10, and 1/11 all featured months with big snow due to banding. You guys can actually beat out eastern SNE when it comes to that, but those events aren't too common. Where SNE shines and destroys NYC, is during those redeveloping Miller B's and SWFE.

[A-L-E-X]

Will is gonna drop the hammer on the NYC temp talk in this thread.

I will say this one thing. NYC area does have the benefit of its longitude when it comes to big snow storms. When H5 closes off near the Delmarva....look out. 2/06, 12/09, 12/10, and 1/11 all featured months with big snow due to banding. You guys can actually beat out eastern SNE when it comes to that, but those events aren't too common. Where SNE shines and destroys NYC, is during those redeveloping Miller B's and SWFE.

lol, according to Kev, Will has gotten "meaner" lately. I haven't seen that though.

If next winter is dominated by SWFE, it will be a latitude winter lol-- the thing is, depending on the amount of warmth present, it may even screw parts of southern new england-- 06-07 vs 07-08 vs 08-09-- had three entirely different areas where the snowfall gradient set up. It all depends on the nao I suppose.

[CoastalWx]

1. North-Central NJ, like where Earthlight lives, did not see 8-12" from the 2/3 Norlun. EWR only had 2.9" from that event; I measured 3.25" that day. There was a distinct minimum that winter in the part of NJ that is considered within NYC metro...places like Fort Lee down to New Brunswick did not get a lot of snow. PHL was the only major station that had a warning criteria event, I believe. Also, Newark only received 6.9" from the 3/2 Miller A, and places to the SW like Scotch Plains and New Brunswick received considerably less snow, as they were in the dry slot. You are clearly pulling numbers out of your head instead of actually looking them up. I am not arguing with your point that there were good periods of snow cover and arctic cold in Winter 08-09; I agree wholeheartedly. The original discussion was about how fortunate Southern Westchester has been recently in winter storms, and I was using Winter 08-09 as an example since Dobbs Ferry did well in both 12/19 and 3/2.

2 The record from 1936 is not a red herring. Most of the nation was in the grips of an historic heat wave that summer, Alex. About 20% of the all-time state high temperatures are from Summer 1936, and nearly half are from the Dust Bowl years of 1930-1936. You do not know how much foliage Central Park had in 1936; this is a contemporary argument that has no place in a discussion about temperature records from the 1930s. This is not jumping to conclusions: everyone will agree that the 1930s and 1950s were the best decades for extreme heat. The numbers speak for themselves. It is amazing that 10 states had all-time highs in July 1936, and that temperatures were over 120F as far north as North and South Dakota, which are near the 45th parallel.

Also, I do not consider 90-degree days a good measure of extreme heat. Most of NYC metro has average highs in the 85-86F range during July...hitting 90F is not a big deal. In the change from the 1971-2000 normals to the new 1981-2010 normals, most stations in SNE had a decrease in the normal number of 90F days. This makes sense because extremely hot periods like July 1977 and July/August 1980 were lost. I agree that last year was a very hot summer, but it was mostly warm nights that propelled it past 1966. It did have some extreme heat around July 4th, but it was the exception rather than the rule in the past few summers. This summer has had no heat, 2009 had no heat, 2008 had very little except for a few days in June, 2007 was humid at times but not excessively hot...you get my point.

3/2/09 was a weird event. It really did not feature a well wrapped up mid level low. Rather, it was more like a WCB type system, with a big massive front end dump due to strong WAA. Basically an 850 theta-e bomb that had convective elements. I personally hate systems like that because not only do they have a high screw potential for some (especially when it comes to longitude), but also snowgrowth is usually crappy despite it being heavy. Still, I shouldn't complain about getting 10-12"...just that they are not the most efficient snow producers.

[ORH_wxman]

Also, most of the population of SNE doesn't live in places that average that much more than Dobbs Ferry. There's a ton of people along the I-95 corridor, which goes through some decidedly not snowy areas in SE CT and RI, quite a few of which average less than here. I would venture that all the way from the NY/CT border to the RI/MA border averages less than Dobbs Ferry, since you're right on the water at no elevation compared to 15-20 miles inland at 350-400' here at my place. Places like Hartford and Springfield are a bit snowier than here, but not by that much. If I moved to one of the higher spots in Westchester 15 miles north of here and 300' higher, I'd probably get as much as BDL. And, of course, we've been particularly lucky...I've averaged a shade over 60"/winter in the last three years, and just under 50" per season since 02-03 (my measurements also are conservative and some of these numbers come from downtown, so it's probably a bit more). Maybe it is just luck, or maybe the climate is changing; it's not hard to imagine how a colder regime with more blocking could cause coastal areas to see larger increases in average snowfall than the interior. Since 93-94, for example, my house in PA hasn't been doing that great compared to the big jump in Westchester's annual snowfall.

Do you think Dobbs Ferry is quite a bit snowier than NYC metro?

If you do, then you would think that places like BDL and Springfield are quite a bit snowier than you. You average about as much snow as PVD metro. TF Green airport averages around 36" of snow...but the city is probably more like 38-39". The only part of SNE that is less snowy than Dobbs Ferry is coastal CT/RI and Cape Cod/Islands.

[CT Rain]

Do you think Dobbs Ferry is quite a bit snowier than NYC metro?

If you do, then you would think that places like BDL and Springfield are quite a bit snowier than you. You average about as much snow as PVD metro. TF Green airport averages around 36" of snow...but the city is probably more like 38-39". The only part of SNE that is less snowy than Dobbs Ferry is coastal CT/RI and Cape Cod/Islands.

Areas like suburban HVN are in the 32"-34" per year range which I imagine is pretty close to Dobbs Ferry. With the exception of coastal SE CT most of CT averages more or even substantially more than Dobbs Ferry.

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL..Dobbs Ferry is not a snowy place...not even close..It's in a valley..gets downsloped and too far west for many coastals

[weathafella]

And the sun rests......

Cycling of NAO is important. I want to see how long this current relaxation lasts. Hopefully until November.

[A-L-E-X]

And the sun rests......

Cycling of NAO is important. I want to see how long this current relaxation lasts. Hopefully until November.

There's some research showing we may be in a minima through about 2023, Jer

[powderfreak]

I think you're right. 4K east of Seattle gets crushed.

Yeah my bad on that one... I was thinking inter-mountain west. 4,000ft in Montana probably does not see 300"/yr but 4,000ft in the Cascades definitely does.

And same with Wyoming, Colorado, Idaho and Utah... 4,000ft doesn't see that much snow in those areas, but 7,000ft+ is a whole other story.

[CoastalWx]

LOL..Dobbs Ferry is not a snowy place...not even close..It's in a valley..gets downsloped and too far west for many coastals

I guess it's all relative. He's snowier than NYC, but he won't beat much of SNE except maybe GON-UUU-HYA perhaps. Even that isn't a guarantee...of him beating places on the Cape.

[powderfreak]

Great streak of winters for VT, especially the valley which ironically, despite all my moaning, has done better relative to average than the Northern Greens.

Yeah as has been proven by J.Spin's graph of snowfall at BTV by decade, from 2000 onward the snowfall average at BTV is a foot above the long term average. We do b*tch and moan a lot on this board but the fact remains that since the turn of the century, snowfall has been very favorable for pretty much all of New England and New York.

And yeah, as always, the lower the average snowfall in a given location, the better-relative-to-average that spot does in the good winters. 20" above normal for the ski resorts isn't that much, but in BTV its a solid difference.

[ORH_wxman]

I guess it's all relative. He's snowier than NYC, but he won't be much of SNE except maybe GON-UUU-HYA perhaps. Even that isn't a guarantee...of him beating places on the Cape.

Areas on or near the upper Cape get into the mid-30s for average snow, especially off the immediate water.

[powderfreak]

I guess it's all relative. He's snowier than NYC, but he won't be much of SNE except maybe GON-UUU-HYA perhaps. Even that isn't a guarantee...of him beating places on the Cape.

Bingo. He might be one of the snowier locations in Westchester County, but one county further north there's a snowier location haha. But Nate is usually comparing his location to NYC to be fair. Its like me comparing my spot to BTV or Will to BOS.

[CoastalWx]

Areas on or near the upper Cape get into the mid-30s for average snow, especially off the immediate water.

Yeah a nice little max right near FMH, about 150' or so ASL.

[CoastalWx]

Bingo. He might be one of the snowier locations in Westchester County, but one county further north there's a snowier location haha. But Nate is usually comparing his location to NYC to be fair. Its like me comparing my spot to BTV or Will to BOS.

That is an interesting area, because you are removed from the coastal effects, but climb a decent bit in elevation. It's probably a similar rate of increase in snowfall from the tarmac at Logan to the nw corner of Rt 128 near BED. Although, a 500' rise in elevation near BED would be pretty cool to see. MQE just sw of BOS at 635' ASL, trumps BOS with 62.7" year round avg (per the new '81-'10 normals). All it takes is about 1.5F or so, and boom. 3" of slop turns into 8" of paste, but accumulating snow. I would imagine the rate of increase with a 500' rise in elevation would beat that easily.

[ORH_wxman]

LOL..Dobbs Ferry is not a snowy place...not even close..It's in a valley..gets downsloped and too far west for many coastals

They average just over 3 feet of snow per year. Its a snow mecca.

[nzucker]

3/2/09 was a weird event. It really did not feature a well wrapped up mid level low. Rather, it was more like a WCB type system, with a big massive front end dump due to strong WAA. Basically an 850 theta-e bomb that had convective elements. I personally hate systems like that because not only do they have a high screw potential for some (especially when it comes to longitude), but also snowgrowth is usually crappy despite it being heavy. Still, I shouldn't complain about getting 10-12"...just that they are not the most efficient snow producers.

Yes, that storm definitely missed something in the phasing...could have been a much bigger event. Still, it was the first RIC-BOS Miller A snowstorm in quite some time, perhaps since PDII? The totals from LI were particularly impressive with 16" falling in western Suffolk, and it reached as far north as Middlebury, which picked up about 4" looking at our records. Not too often we see a snowstorm that has a bona-fide impact from southern VA to northern VT...even if the impact was very inconsistent/banded like 12/26/10 versus a more well-distributed snowfall with the big storms like PDII or Jan '96.

LOL..Dobbs Ferry is not a snowy place...not even close..It's in a valley..gets downsloped and too far west for many coastals

No, it's not really a snowy place, but trying to make a name for itself with two 70" winters in a row. Downsloping on NW winds does take away snowfall on arctic fronts/windex events, but I don't find that being too far west is really that much of a concern, especially living north of the City where I sometimes get clipped in the developing banding from a Miller B (14" in Jan 22, 05; 14.5" in Jan 12, 11)...and it has certainly saved us in some storms like 12/30/2000 and 2/25/2010. You have to be really far east to get the best banding from the Miller Bs, as even SE CT often dryslots and doesn't get that much.

And the sun rests......

Cycling of NAO is important. I want to see how long this current relaxation lasts. Hopefully until November.

Amazing to see Matt Roger's chart...we're still paralleling Cycle 5, which occurred during the Dalton Minimum. Signs are that we're basically missing the maximum that we've come to expect in recent years.

I like that we're seeing the -AO flex its muscles this summer. That mega-block over the North Pole is quite encouraging.

Yeah my bad on that one... I was thinking inter-mountain west. 4,000ft in Montana probably does not see 300"/yr but 4,000ft in the Cascades definitely does.

And same with Wyoming, Colorado, Idaho and Utah... 4,000ft doesn't see that much snow in those areas, but 7,000ft+ is a whole other story.

I think it's best to compare coastal locations with other coastal locations, so VT's Green Mountains and OR's Cascades are probably the better comparison in terms of both latitude and proximity to an ocean/moisture source.

[nzucker]

3/2/09 was a weird event. It really did not feature a well wrapped up mid level low. Rather, it was more like a WCB type system, with a big massive front end dump due to strong WAA. Basically an 850 theta-e bomb that had convective elements. I personally hate systems like that because not only do they have a high screw potential for some (especially when it comes to longitude), but also snowgrowth is usually crappy despite it being heavy. Still, I shouldn't complain about getting 10-12"...just that they are not the most efficient snow producers.

Yes, that storm definitely missed something in the phasing...could have been a much bigger event. Still, it was the first RIC-BOS Miller A snowstorm in quite some time, perhaps since PDII? The totals from LI were particularly impressive with 16" falling in western Suffolk, and it reached as far north as Middlebury, which picked up about 4" looking at our records. Not too often we see a snowstorm that has a bona-fide impact from southern VA to northern VT...even if the impact was very inconsistent/banded like 12/26/10 versus a more well-distributed snowfall with the big storms like PDII or Jan '96.

LOL..Dobbs Ferry is not a snowy place...not even close..It's in a valley..gets downsloped and too far west for many coastals

No, it's not really a snowy place, but trying to make a name for itself with two 70" winters in a row. Downsloping on NW winds does take away snowfall on arctic fronts/windex events, but I don't find that being too far west is really that much of a concern, especially living north of the City where I sometimes get clipped in the developing banding from a Miller B (14" in Jan 22, 05; 14.5" in Jan 12, 11)...and it has certainly saved us in some storms like 12/30/2000 and 2/25/2010. You have to be really far east to get the best banding from the Miller Bs, as even SE CT often dryslots and doesn't get that much.

And the sun rests......

Cycling of NAO is important. I want to see how long this current relaxation lasts. Hopefully until November.

Amazing to see Matt Roger's chart...we're still paralleling Cycle 5, which occurred during the Dalton Minimum. Signs are that we're basically missing the maximum that we've come to expect in recent years.

I like that we're seeing the -AO flex its muscles this summer. That mega-block over the North Pole is quite encouraging.

Yeah my bad on that one... I was thinking inter-mountain west. 4,000ft in Montana probably does not see 300"/yr but 4,000ft in the Cascades definitely does.

And same with Wyoming, Colorado, Idaho and Utah... 4,000ft doesn't see that much snow in those areas, but 7,000ft+ is a whole other story.

I think it's best to compare coastal locations with other coastal locations, so VT's Green Mountains and OR's Cascades are probably the better comparison in terms of both latitude and proximity to an ocean/moisture source.

[InstantWeatherMaps]

Amazing to see Matt Roger's chart...we're still paralleling Cycle 5, which occurred during the Dalton Minimum. Signs are that we're basically missing the maximum that we've come to expect in recent years.

I like that we're seeing the -AO flex its muscles this summer. That mega-block over the North Pole is quite encouraging.

...and with the QBO going down, it probably will get more blocky, if anything.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I've always based my numbers off an average of ~40" for TAN.

[CoastalWx]

I'll take this with a -QBO and a weak sun please.

[Ginx snewx]

I'll take this with a -QBO and a weak sun please.

ASOUT

[OKpowdah]

Looks pretty nice. The configuration of ENSO, and the Atlantic SSTs. Honestly though, I think we'll ultimately see more warming in Nino4 and 3.4 than currently forecast. I think this winter will favor February much more than recent years