Winter 2011-2012

[nzucker]

I think a 50-60% improvement is pretty significant, but I guess its relative.

I'd probably kill myself after 2 or 3 winters in Dobbs Ferry...and someone from 2000 feet in New Hampshire would do that here after 2-3 winters.

In terms of percent sure, but none of these places average that much snow to begin with, so using a percentage may be of limited value. It really is individual perspective, though, and there's no accounting for taste.

A normal winter in Dobbs Ferry isn't that great with the average at my house around 37-38", but winters have been anything but normal lately. After two 70" winters and the streak we've been on since 02-03, I wonder if our snowfall average is being permanently revised I think my area had just as much as ORH in 09-10, a fluke to be sure, although snowfall regimes do seem to be changing. Only 2 of the last 10 seasons have had below normal snowfall here (06-07 and 07-08), and half of the seasons have eclipsed 50". Of those 8 seasons above normal, only 2 were just slightly above normal (05-06, with 40"...and 08-09 with 45"), so there's definitely some weird stuff happening. In the past three seasons, 185" of snow have fallen here in Dobbs Ferry, almost six winters' worth of normal snow.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hopefully this is the year I get 140" and ORH sets the seasonal snowfall record.

Need as many snow days as possible being a senior.

I really hope for a return to elevation winter in N ORH county (a few scraps to you southerners, too)

[nzucker]

Yeah the hills in E CT are definitely a buffer for the torch-tastic conditions that occur in SE CT in the winter and the elevation and longitude helps in avoiding those nasty summer time heat waves like is more common to the SW. You always see a huge gradient in winter driving up 395 from Foxwoods to the Moosup exit and past Brooklyn.

SE CT is really terrible in winter...I feel bad for skierinvermont. What an awful place to live. He was so ecstatic to get 50" this past winter....I was like, we've had that every other year since 02-03 here.

[ORH_wxman]

In terms of percent sure, but none of these places average that much snow to begin with, so using a percentage may be of limited value. It really is individual perspective, though, and there's no accounting for taste.

A normal winter in Dobbs Ferry isn't that great with the average at my house around 37-38", but winters have been anything but normal lately. After two 70" winters and the streak we've been on since 02-03, I wonder if our snowfall average is being permanently revised I think my area had just as much as ORH in 09-10, a fluke to be sure, although snowfall regimes do seem to be changing. Only 2 of the last 10 seasons have had below normal snowfall here (06-07 and 07-08), and half of the seasons have eclipsed 50". Of those 8 seasons above normal, only 2 were just slightly above normal (05-06, with 40"...and 08-09 with 45"), so there's definitely some weird stuff happening. In the past three seasons, 185" of snow have fallen here in Dobbs Ferry, almost six winters' worth of normal snow.

I'm averaging 77" per winter in the last decade. I do not expect it to last. You are young enough not to remember the 1980s or early 1990s...and before that the early to mid 1970s in NYC area.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I'm averaging 77" per winter in the last decade. I do not expect it to last. You are young enough not to remember the 1980s or early 1990s...and before that the early to mid 1970s in NYC area.

We're due for another 06-07.... or maybe something huge

[Ginx snewx]

SE CT is really terrible in winter...I feel bad for skierinvermont. What an awful place to live. He was so ecstatic to get 50" this past winter....I was like, we've had that every other year since 02-03 here.

Guess you forgot the 06 07 08 debacles where you did not get 20

[nzucker]

I'm averaging 77" per winter in the last decade. I do not expect it to last. You are young enough not to remember the 1980s or early 1990s...and before that the early to mid 1970s in NYC area.

I'm sure the luck will run out eventually, but it seems like we haven't hit the sweet spot of this cycle yet with solar expected to plunge more, the -PDO/-NAO just starting, and a weaker Niña on the table for next winter. It'll be interesting if we do get another Maunder Minimum...wonder what we all averaged back in those days. Don't want to get greedy yet but it's sure looking like the years starting with 00-01 are going to be something to remember for winter lovers.

[CoastalWx]

SE CT is really terrible in winter...I feel bad for skierinvermont. What an awful place to live. He was so ecstatic to get 50" this past winter....I was like, we've had that every other year since 02-03 here.

No wonder why he has an AGW fetish. It's like living in a greenhouse during the winter...lol.

[nzucker]

Guess you forgot the 06 07 08 debacles where you did not get 20

I said "every other year since 2002-03, we've had 50"...I think you misinterpreted that statement. That means that half of the years have been near 50" winters. 06-07 and 07-08 are in the other half.

We did have around 20" in 07-08...around 7" fell here in just that one February storm, and I was home for a few minor events in Dec too.

No wonder why he has an AGW fetish. It's like living in a greenhouse during the winter...lol.

Oh god, now I would die if I moved there in winter. They got 5" in Boxing Day LOL.

[Ginx snewx]

I said "every other year since 2002-03, we've had 50"...I think you misinterpreted that statement. That means that half of the years have been near 50" winters. 06-07 and 07-08 are in the other half.

We did have around 20" in 07-08...around 7" fell here in just that one February storm, and I was home for a few minor events in Dec too.

Oh god, now I would die if I movethrusts in winter. They got 5" in Boxing Day LOL.

Guess I did, SECT is very much influenced by marine air but the quality of there best storms with the wind is pretty spectacular. You quote boxing day but Dec 19th 09 they jack potted with 24,what did you get?

[ORH_wxman]

Guess I did, SECT is very much influenced by marine air but the quality of there best storms with the wind is pretty spectacular. You quote boxing day but Dec 19th 09 they jack potted with 24,what did you get?

They've actually had a good run the past 3 winters down there with 3 40"+ winters in a row and this year being well over 50". It seemed to start with them getting smoked in the March 2009 storm with that gravity wave. Then they got crushed again in the 12/19/09 storm and last year of course getting hammered in 1/27 and 1/12.

[Ginx snewx]

They've actually had a good run the past 3 winters down there with 3 40"+ winters in a row and this year being well over 50". It seemed to start with them getting smoked in the March 2009 storm with that gravity wave. Then they got crushed again in the 12/19/09 storm and last year of course getting hammered in 1/27 and 1/12.

Just inland a bit in Montville last years back to back Norlun events were superb for them.

[weathafella]

Speaking of melt downs, I had one at the beginning of one of our great storms last winter (1/12 I think). But the most bitter pill was 12/30/00. Seeing S++ in NYC while I'm pelting rain was like a serrated knife twisting inside my gut.

[Ginx snewx]

Speaking of melt downs, I had one at the beginning of one of our great storms last winter (1/12 I think). But the most bitter pill was 12/30/00. Seeing S++ in NYC while I'm pelting rain was like a serrated knife twisting inside my gut.

That was an instant classic meltdown last year but you quickly recouped your senses. My biggest meltdown last years Boxing Day, total bad snow production dry slut from hell.

[Ginx snewx]

FYI we are officially at El Neutral.

[OKpowdah]

Speaking of melt downs, I had one at the beginning of one of our great storms last winter (1/12 I think). But the most bitter pill was 12/30/00. Seeing S++ in NYC while I'm pelting rain was like a serrated knife twisting inside my gut.

We both were at the meltdown stage at some point last winter

Mine was at the start of the Boxing Day storm when I was under a heavy band on radar, and getting nothing but snow grains

[ORH_wxman]

Speaking of melt downs, I had one at the beginning of one of our great storms last winter (1/12 I think). But the most bitter pill was 12/30/00. Seeing S++ in NYC while I'm pelting rain was like a serrated knife twisting inside my gut.

Yeah you were convinced that it was a repeat of 12/30 with BOS going over to rain. But the difference was the wind direction was much more NNE in 1/12/11 and also being 2 weeks later into January certainly helps out with the SST situation. That was a weird storm for BOS being on the warm side of the CF but still getting hammered with a big snowstorm. 15" of wet snow made it look picturesque.

[CT Rain]

No wonder why he has an AGW fetish. It's like living in a greenhouse during the winter...lol.

SE CT is just an absolute nightmare for snowlovers. I would say 9 times out of 10 down there storms disappoint. I've been burned so many times I just cut snowfall totals down there even if I can't see a reason to do it on the models just based on climo alone.

25 miles west of there in coastal New Haven County it's a totally different story. Where I grew up (Guilford) they average about a foot more than Groton and New London which is a 30-35% increase.

[CT Rain]

Guess I did, SECT is very much influenced by marine air but the quality of there best storms with the wind is pretty spectacular. You quote boxing day but Dec 19th 09 they jack potted with 24,what did you get?

I also think they're in sort of a unique screw spot (along with Washington County RI) where they're get screwed with a traditional Miller B. A lot of it is because in a traditional redeveloping cyclone the mid level low doesn't wrap up fast enough so you can deal with pesky mid level warmth and dry slots before the mid level low closes and you start pouring in colder air. Areas further east also at low elevation (say comparing IJD to TAN) will do a lot better as their longitude helps them.

Areas further west... say HVN... do a lot better because they're just far enough west to keep cold air and better moisture in place with your typical sfc/850/700 low track.

[nzucker]

Guess I did, SECT is very much influenced by marine air but the quality of there best storms with the wind is pretty spectacular. You quote boxing day but Dec 19th 09 they jack potted with 24,what did you get?

New London County just never seems to jackpot, however, or very rarely. Unlike some coastal areas, like Cape Cod, where you are willing to sacrifice average snowfall in order to get a few monster storm totals with ridiculous winds, in New London County you are just sacrificing to sacrifice.

My friend had 20" in 12/19/09; I only got 8" in that gut-wrenching storm...but I still beat SE CT handily that winter with 68", mostly due to better totals in 2/10/10 (12.5") and of course 2/25/10 (26"). SE CT can never beat us even when they're given a mulligan like that. I swore revenge on skierinvermont that year when he was gloating about how great the 12/19 storm was, and sure enough Westchester got it. I mean it's hard not to when you average almost an entire foot more per season, but it was especially sweet when GON spiked to 60F in the Snowicane while I pelted heavy snow.

SE CT is just an absolute nightmare for snowlovers. I would say 9 times out of 10 down there storms disappoint. I've been burned so many times I just cut snowfall totals down there even if I can't see a reason to do it on the models just based on climo alone.

25 miles west of there in coastal New Haven County it's a totally different story. Where I grew up (Guilford) they average about a foot more than Groton and New London which is a 30-35% increase.

It's so weird how they manage to do so much worse than the North Shore of LI to their south. The combination of some downsloping component on NE winds as well as the flat terrain and lack of sound effect/enhancement really makes it murderous. Skier says he only thinks he averages like 26-27"/season in Old Lyme, with the immediate coast getting even less, meaning they see more than a foot less per season than I do. And they're to my NE. There's just something weird going on there. I always assumed in the old days that Andrew got more snow since he was in a rural area to the northeast in New England, all things I associate with heavier snowfall than NYC. Then we started going through storms, and the totals were pathetic.

[powderfreak]

I think a 50-60% improvement is pretty significant, but I guess its relative.

I'd probably kill myself after 2 or 3 winters in Dobbs Ferry...and someone from 2000 feet in New Hampshire would do that here after 2-3 winters.

LOL... this is definitely true. I've realized I'm not sure I could make it through a winter anywhere else than where I am right now, averaging over 100"/yr at the house and 150-300" (depending on elevation) only 4 miles away. Its a problem to be a snow lover and in such a good location so early on in life, because its going to be hard if I ever have to move away from the Green Mountain Spine for some reason. Those almost daily snowfalls in Dec and Jan with cold NW flow or the big 20-30" 3-day upslope events, plus synoptic snows, would be missed a lot.

I have no idea how I managed growing up a few miles from ALB...haha.

[ORH_wxman]

New London County just never seems to jackpot, however, or very rarely. Unlike some coastal areas, like Cape Cod, where you are willing to sacrifice average snowfall in order to get a few monster storm totals with ridiculous winds, in New London County you are just sacrificing to sacrifice.

My friend had 20" in 12/19/09; I only got 8" in that gut-wrenching storm...but I still beat SE CT handily that winter with 68", mostly due to better totals in 2/10/10 (12.5") and of course 2/25/10 (26"). SE CT can never beat us even when they're given a mulligan like that. I swore revenge on skierinvermont that year when he was gloating about how great the 12/19 storm was, and sure enough Westchester got it. I mean it's hard not to when you average almost an entire foot more per season, but it was especially sweet when GON spiked to 60F in the Snowicane while I pelted heavy snow.

They beat your area in '04-'05 and probably by a narrow margin in '08-'09.

[powderfreak]

I'm averaging 77" per winter in the last decade. I do not expect it to last. You are young enough not to remember the 1980s or early 1990s...and before that the early to mid 1970s in NYC area.

Yeah something has to give with these great snow winters... BTV's 30-year average snowfall is 82" and the 120-year average is 77". The last 11 years the average is 92" or maybe a bit higher because of last winter's 128.4".

So in the last decade BTV is 10" above the 30-year average and 15" above the 120 year average... that's fairly significant and there's no downturn yet, especially considering last winter was a whopper with almost 130" of snowfall (and that's down in the Champlain Valley bottom).

J.Spin's graph from earlier in this thread illustrates this past decade's snowfall nicely compared with previous decades. I'd probably kill myself or move out west if we run into a 1920-1950 type of stretch, lol.

[A-L-E-X]

SE CT is just an absolute nightmare for snowlovers. I would say 9 times out of 10 down there storms disappoint. I've been burned so many times I just cut snowfall totals down there even if I can't see a reason to do it on the models just based on climo alone.

25 miles west of there in coastal New Haven County it's a totally different story. Where I grew up (Guilford) they average about a foot more than Groton and New London which is a 30-35% increase.

Im shocked that area averages less snow than I do. There are some weird snowfall gradients in the northeast.

[A-L-E-X]

New London County just never seems to jackpot, however, or very rarely. Unlike some coastal areas, like Cape Cod, where you are willing to sacrifice average snowfall in order to get a few monster storm totals with ridiculous winds, in New London County you are just sacrificing to sacrifice.

My friend had 20" in 12/19/09; I only got 8" in that gut-wrenching storm...but I still beat SE CT handily that winter with 68", mostly due to better totals in 2/10/10 (12.5") and of course 2/25/10 (26"). SE CT can never beat us even when they're given a mulligan like that. I swore revenge on skierinvermont that year when he was gloating about how great the 12/19 storm was, and sure enough Westchester got it. I mean it's hard not to when you average almost an entire foot more per season, but it was especially sweet when GON spiked to 60F in the Snowicane while I pelted heavy snow.

It's so weird how they manage to do so much worse than the North Shore of LI to their south. The combination of some downsloping component on NE winds as well as the flat terrain and lack of sound effect/enhancement really makes it murderous. Skier says he only thinks he averages like 26-27"/season in Old Lyme, with the immediate coast getting even less, meaning they see more than a foot less per season than I do. And they're to my NE. There's just something weird going on there. I always assumed in the old days that Andrew got more snow since he was in a rural area to the northeast in New England, all things I associate with heavier snowfall than NYC. Then we started going through storms, and the totals were pathetic.

Hell, they even do worse than the south shore of LI-- as an example I got 14" on 2/26 and they were 60? I feel bad for skier.

[powderfreak]

Well I just don't see that as being that much....it's like if I moved from the South Shore of LI to here. Sure, you get a little more winter, but nothing mind-blowing. I definitely wasn't thinking 55"/year though, but 600' isn't bad for that area. All these elevations seem sort of crummy though after spending time out west...like great, I live at 350', ooh let's move up to 600' for an upgrade LOL.

lol... yeah but Denver is at over 5,000ft and only averages 57" of snow a year. He gets that in Moosup at 600ft. The Green Mountains at 4,000ft destroy anything out west at an equal 4,000ft. Foot for foot, the East averages a lot more snow. If Colorado had similar elevations as the east, they'd get less snow than the mid-Atlantic.

[nzucker]

I have no idea how I managed growing up a few miles from ALB...haha.

I always looked up to Albany as a "snowy place" when I was a kid growing up Downstate dealing with changeovers and rainstorms. Of course, I knew snowy winters because we spent a ton of time at our vacation home in the Poconos; my parents had it winterized in 1990, and we started to go up there a couple weekends a month during the school year to get away from the bustle of the NYC suburbs and enjoy skiing and quiet time at the lake the house is on. (Lake Como, PA is the town, elevation 1500'.) I was too young to remember details but do have faint recollection of snowy winters there in 92-93 and 93-94, and my parents have an epic picture of me building a huge snow fort in a 3' snowpack, probably in Feb/Mar 1994 when the Poconos were really buried. Also learned to ski there and had a great time of it in 00-01 when I was in 7th grade, definitely remember the skiing being great that season.

In any case, ALB is not a bad place for snow, though they had a rough stretch. They average about as much as ORH, and they got murdered in 02-03 with 20-30" in the Christmas storm and then another 15-20" in the January 3rd system just a week later...can't imagine how much snow your backyard had in those days. Thatcher State Park would have been even more ridiculous. I think they also did really nicely in the May 2002 snowfall as you've mentioned. It's been a while since one of those interior winters, however, that jackpots places like ALB and the Poconos. I know 93-94 and I believe 81-82 were both exceptional years up there, although you are too young to recall the latter. Maybe your parents remember Winter 81-82, however, was a fierce one for the Hudson Valley.

They beat your area in '04-'05 and probably by a narrow margin in '08-'09.

I'm pretty sure they got me in 04-05....I had 50" here, do you know what they got at GON and Old Lyme that year? Andrew says January 2005 wasn't that great there compared to farther east, but I still assume the amount of Miller Bs put them over NYC metro. It's weird, though, I always thought he would at least equal my average by getting a lot of those late-blooming Miller Bs that track far from the coast, but it seems he dryslots in the transfer more and then Cape Cod and SE Mass to Downeast Maine cashes in. I guess this is what Ryan is saying; neither the coastals that destroy NYC nor the Miller Bs that jackpot Cape Cod really do it for New London County with the 700 low track. When you add this oddity into the NE wind downsloping and lack of sound enhancement compared to the North Shore below them, I guess that's why they do so poorly.

I think Westchester might have done better in 08-09. I measured a rough 45" here, do you have records for GON/New London/Old Lyme? I was in a decent local maximum that winter since I did well in both the original 12/19 storm (8", whereas much of the metro area mixed) and Dobbs Ferry got 10" with the 3/1 system although I was far away in South America watching the radar returns with jealousy...they might have gotten a bit more with the gravity wave, although I seem to remember it was Upton and Central LI that had more than SE CT in that weird Miller A system, maximum amounts around 16" there. I also know we did well in a couple SW flow events here, had around 6" on 1/28 as well as one other that hit Westchester with a moderate snowfall. We also got in a bit on the 2/3 Norlun that smoked PHL, not sure what that did in GON territory. Hopefully you can confirm Will, I'd certainly defer to you but I just seem to remember that winter being more favorably talked about by me than Andrew.

Yeah something has to give with these great snow winters... BTV's 30-year average snowfall is 82" and the 120-year average is 77".

I honestly think a lot of it is just more precise measurements. The 6-hour technique adds a lot. Can you imagine the Blizzard of 1888 measured that way?

Also, the North Country's climate seems to have become wetter in all seasons, and with the correlation between precipitation and snowfall much stronger than that between temperature and snowfall, I would expect NNE/Upstate NY to see more snow in today's warmer but wetter climate. I would think VT would continue to get more snowfall if global warming intensified, at least to a certain point. There are certainly other factors in the precipitation increase, however, such as the AMO. Finally, we had a lot of stronger Niños lately like 97-98, 82-83, etc that tend to be very wet up there. That might have to do with the PDO cycle as well.

[nzucker]

Guess I did, SECT is very much influenced by marine air but the quality of there best storms with the wind is pretty spectacular. You quote boxing day but Dec 19th 09 they jack potted with 24,what did you get?

I did visit Andrew right after 12/19/09, and they got wrecked! It was really a sight to see there. He reported >4"/hour rates with snow swirling all over the place under 40dbz returns. 12/19/09 for him was what 2/25/10 was for me, although my house still got a decent amount of snow in the former whereas he was all rain in the latter...we were actually in Middlebury, I made the decision to drive home to Dobbs Ferry for the 2/25 storm, he was going to accompany me but had lost a winter jacket and wanted to look for it. He still regrets not coming. It was a harrowing ride home at 1am as VT had just gotten 20" of snow with the 2/24 storm, a SW flow event that popped a monster coastal that hugged the shore. I drove through the still snowy roads clutching the wheel of my tiny Mazda, knowing I needed to make it the 4 hours home for the retrograder. It was 100% rain at Middlebury, 200 miles to the north of my house, stayed all snow down here. The Green Mountains did pick up some snow, but it was just amazing down here with the 26", the winds, the damage to trees and power lines...we got about 3" liquid, I believe. Models were correct in placing the 0C 850 line just barely east of here, as HPN (White Plains airport) mixed for most of the day before flipping, losing like 10" of accumulation to the rain/slush. That was the winter of the monster storm, I saw two 20"+ events in the span of three days.

Interestingly, my house rarely jackpots on coastals (just like Andrew in Old Lyme, CT)....2/25 was really a first for me as the previous December storm was for Andrew. I had only 13-14" in each of the three big storms this year (12/26, 1/12, 1/27)...only got 8" in 12/19/09, only got 12.5" in 2/10/10, came in with around 16" in PDII, 20" in Feb 2006. None of the really huge totals come out of Westchester, for the most part. But I've had a good run since 08-09 getting solid totals in every coastal and then adding on with SW flow events that change to rain in the City. I also got lucky with 8" on 2/21/11, an overrunning event that was pretty forgettable for everyone else.

LOL... this is definitely true. I've realized I'm not sure I could make it through a winter anywhere else than where I am right now, averaging over 100"/yr at the house and 150-300" (depending on elevation) only 4 miles away.

I actually think Middlebury frustrated me more than the coastal plain here in NYC metro. It just sucks watching the mountains on the horizon get jammed while the Champlain Valley always has some downsloping problem. Your snowfall always seems so relative to those around you; in Westchester, I'm accustomed to doing better than most of the forecast area which is all urban/sea level...in Midd, it was the opposite. We had underperformed in so many storms until 1/3/2010 when BTV got the 35" and Middlebury 20". I remember how cautious we were on our meteorology radio show calling for big amounts on campus, knowing the history of the CPV...when I went 20" for the 2/24/10 event, Andrew thought I was being very aggressive, though we both were higher than the NWS. It ended up working out that time but I would hate making too many aggressive forecasts there as you're bound to bust sometime easily. I did have a good forecasting stretch, one of my few, saying that Central Park would see 20" in 2/25 Snowicane right after I called for 16-20" on air for the 2/24 event in Vermont. That was a fun winter though a nightmare for some.

[ORH_wxman]

I think Westchester might have done better in 08-09. I measured a rough 45" here, do you have records for GON/New London/Old Lyme? I was in a decent local maximum that winter since I did well in both the original 12/19 storm (8", whereas much of the metro area mixed) and Dobbs Ferry got 10" with the 3/1 system although I was far away in South America watching the radar returns with jealousy...they might have gotten a bit more with the gravity wave, although I seem to remember it was Upton and Central LI that had more than SE CT in that weird Miller A system, maximum amounts around 16" there. I also know we did well in a couple SW flow events here, had around 6" on 1/28 as well as one other that hit Westchester with a moderate snowfall. We also got in a bit on the 2/3 Norlun that smoked PHL, not sure what that did in GON territory. Hopefully you can confirm Will, I'd certainly defer to you but I just seem to remember that winter being more favorably talked about by me than Andrew.

One of our posters right on the coast down there had 43" in '08-'09 so anyone right off the water got in the high 40s probably. March '09 hammered them pretty hard. To the west of GON...there was a small hole down there that may have failed to hit 40" but it wasn't the usual widespread SE CT screwzone that we normally see.

They did pretty well in the 12/19/08 event too. I'm not sure if where skier was got into a little local screw zone, but a lot of SE CT had 40-50" of snow.

[A-L-E-X]

One of our posters right on the coast down there had 43" in '08-'09 so anyone right off the water got in the high 40s probably. March '09 hammered them pretty hard. To the west of GON...there was a small hole down there that may have failed to hit 40" but it wasn't the usual widespread SE CT screwzone that we normally see.

It's interesting how SE CT echoes the totals of Suffolk County, yet Suffolk usually does somewhat better. December 2009 is a case in point as parts of Long Island got close to 30" Off the top of my head, there were 16" totals in Suffolk County in March 2009 and even going all the way back to April 1996, I believe both received in excess of a foot. How did they each do in April 1997, Will? I don't think anywhere on Long Island got more than 4-5" in that, but SE CT may have done better, being closer to the bombing low. How did they do in Jan and Feb 1978? From all reports, the snow got heavier as one went east with both of those storms, though in Feb 1978 it changed to rain at the Cape.