Winter 2011-2012

[Amped]

Is there any winter New England posters expect to be ****ty?

[ORH_wxman]

Is there any winter New England posters expect to be ****ty?

Strong El Nino hasn't had a great track record here, though its not the end of the world. Snowfall is not very ENSO-dependent in New England like it is down in Maryland. So you can usually find a reason to be optimistic....or pessimistic if that is your thing. A weak El Nino though is virtually a lock for a good winter here...small sample size caveats of course.

[CoastalWx]

The past 19 years has definitely been wetter than the previous years of either good or lean snowfall. Breaking it up into 3 groups...1992-present (good snow), 1978-1992 (terrible snow), 1957-1977 (good snow again)

Its tough to blame any of these on climate change though. Its also a cherry pick as its not a surprise that "Good snowfall" periods will be wetter than poor snowfall periods. The next 20 years could look different and be much drier. We just do not know and have very little proof or predictive ability on a scale like that.

Yeah exactly. We've had wetter periods, but I just don't know if we have evidence of wetter winters like some in the media try to claim. Perhaps they're thinking more in lines of the last 15-20 years or so.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah exactly. We've had wetter periods, but I just don't know if we have evidence of wetter winters like some in the media try to claim. Perhaps they're thinking more in lines of the last 15-20 years or so.

I'm sure there are cycles, or enough variation that we can cherry pick periods that are wetter. The winters from 1992 to present have been very wet as the graph shows, but the 1980s/early 1990s were very dry winters...then the previous 20 years were fairly wet again.

There is a weak reverse correlation with precip anomalies to the NAO over New England...meaning that a -NAO will tend to have higher precip anomalies, but again, the correlation is fairly weak. It tends to be strongest right along the coastal areas. So you can argue that the decadal NAO cycle can produce a somewhat cyclical nature to seasonal snowfall. Our current snowy streak however started several years before we started seeing more -NAOs...as it really didn't start happening until 2000-2001...but we did have that big -NAO in '95-'96. 1992 through 1994 certainly didn't though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm sure there are cycles, or enough variation that we can cherry pick periods that are wetter. The winters from 1992 to present have been very wet as the graph shows, but the 1980s/early 1990s were very dry winters...then the previous 20 years were fairly wet again.

There is a weak reverse correlation with precip anomalies to the NAO over New England...meaning that a -NAO will tend to have higher precip anomalies, but again, the correlation is fairly weak. It tends to be strongest right along the coastal areas. So you can argue that the decadal NAO cycle can produce a somewhat cyclical nature to seasonal snowfall. Our current snowy streak however started several years before we started seeing more -NAOs...as it really didn't start happening until 2000-2001...but we did have that big -NAO in '95-'96. 1992 through 1994 certainly didn't though.

[ORH_wxman]

Good post. Adds solid substance to this thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good post. Adds solid substance to this thread.

:weenie:

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's ironic that my area down to Boston's worst winter occurred in a weak el Nino....'79-'80.

[ORH_wxman]

It's ironic that my area down to Boston's worst winter occured in a weak el Nino....'78-'79.

'78-'79 was not a weak El Nino. You are thinking of '79-'80...which technically was not a weak El Nino either...it was warm neutral, but close to a weak El Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

'78-'79 was not a weak El Nino. You are thinking of '79-'80...which technically was not a weak El Nino either...it was warm neutral, but close to a weak El Nino.

I meant '79-'80....typo....I always mix those two winters up for some reason.

Yea, it was marginal, bot close enough to render it curious.

[ORH_wxman]

I meant '79-'80....typo....I always mix those two winters up for some reason.

Yea, it was marginal, bot close enough to render it curious.

Its the only winter even close to a weak El Nino that totally screwed us. The others were nothing but a party.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its the only winter even close to a weak El Nino that totally screwed us. The others were nothing but a party.

'58-'59 was "meh", though not awful....'51-'52 was about normal.

Thank God that '06-07' grew to be mod lol

[ORH_wxman]

'58-'59 was "meh", though not awful....'51-'52 was about normal.

Thank God that '06-07' grew to be mod lol

Its probably been a lot of luck too that "official" weak El Ninos produce here. We haven't had many during a bad NAO cycle.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah exactly. We've had wetter periods, but I just don't know if we have evidence of wetter winters like some in the media try to claim. Perhaps they're thinking more in lines of the last 15-20 years or so.

I do know that has gotten a lot wetter in NYC-- when was the last time we had a below normal rainfall year here? Probably back in the 90s somewhere. Though we dont know if this might be connected to the AMO as I distinctly remember it being much drier in the 80s and early 90s.

[ORH_wxman]

1992-1993 was almost a weak El Nino too. So we have to include that if we are talking about "almosts".

[40/70 Benchmark]

Its probably been a lot of luck too that "official" weak El Ninos produce here. We haven't had many during a bad NAO cycle.

Obviously sample size is an issue, but "bad NAOs" are far more likely when ENSO is stronger.

[A-L-E-X]

Fair enough, but my point RE the warmer climate remains.

I actually agree with you about the warmer/wetter climate issue, it's just a matter of ironing out to what degree now. No one can sanely argue that we aren't affecting the climate, we just don't know by exactly how much we are doing it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1992-1993 was almost a weak El Nino too. So we have to include that if we are talking about "almosts".

Yep....add another to the list of pant tents.

[ORH_wxman]

Obviously sample size is an issue, but "bad NAOs" are far more likely when ENSO is stronger.

Yes they are...but all the weak El Ninos save '51-52 occurred between 1963 and 1978 and then a random one in 2004-2005 (NAO was heading down and in the neutral phase there).

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yes they are...but all the weak El Ninos save '51-52 occurred between 1963 and 1978 and then a random one in 2004-2005 (NAO was heading down and in the neutral phase there).

Right, but what I am saying is that that is probably no coincidence.

[A-L-E-X]

Yes they are...but all the weak El Ninos save '51-52 occurred between 1963 and 1978 and then a random one in 2004-2005 (NAO was heading down and in the neutral phase there).

Will, what was 2003-04?

[ORH_wxman]

I actually agree with you about the warmer/wetter climate issue, it's just a matter of ironing out to what degree now. No one can sanely argue that we aren't affecting the climate, we just don't know by exactly how much we are doing it.

I don't think climate change can be blamed on much...see last page or several posts above. We've gone in cycles. There is simply no way to measure the effect of climate change on snow here because the type of variance we are talking about exceeds climate change on such a high level..orders of magnitude different.

The 1960s were amazing and now the 2000s were amazing. Why weren't the 1980s? They were warmer than the 1960s. Its all about synoptic patterns that are affected by factors much stronger than climate change.

[ORH_wxman]

Will, what was 2003-04?

Warm neutral.

[A-L-E-X]

I don't think climate change can be blamed on much...see last page or several posts above. We've gone in cycles. There is simply no way to measure the effect of climate change on snow here because the type of variance we are talking about exceeds climate change on such a high level..orders of magnitude different.

The 1960s were amazing and now the 2000s were amazing. Why weren't the 1980s? They were warmer than the 1960s. Its all about synoptic patterns that are affected by factors much stronger than climate change.

Will, Im wondering if the recent bout of wet, megasnowbombs and wetter patterns in general is connected to the AMO, since our patterns started changing in the mid 90s, around the time the AMO switched to the active phase.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think climate change can be blamed on much...see last page or several posts above. We've gone in cycles. There is simply no way to measure the effect of climate change on snow here because the type of variance we are talking about exceeds climate change on such a high level..orders of magnitude different.

The 1960s were amazing and now the 2000s were amazing. Why weren't the 1980s? They were warmer than the 1960s. Its all about synoptic patterns that are affected by factors much stronger than climate change.

Right...it's not all about climate change....synoptic factors such as a +NAO can negate it for a period.

[ORH_wxman]

Will, Im wondering if the recent bout of wet, megasnowbombs and wetter patterns in general is connected to the AMO, since our patterns started changing in the mid 90s, around the time the AMO switched to the active phase.

Possible, but very little evidence that the AMO effects our storms. Again, we are talking scales that are quite different. I think more astute measurements have been a part of this. If we had the same snow measurements in the 1960s that we had now, I'd bet you would see a lot more ridiculous storms like now. I still think we've seen bigger storms recently, but the difference would not be nearly as large.

[A-L-E-X]

Possible, but very little evidence that the AMO effects our storms. Again, we are talking scales that are quite different. I think more astute measurements have been a part of this. If we had the same snow measurements in the 1960s that we had now, I'd bet you would see a lot more ridiculous storms like now. I still think we've seen bigger storms recently, but the difference would not be nearly as large.

About the snow measurements, we can also blame the change in measurement technique..... one that Ray and I have talked about before was Feb 2003 vs Feb 1978.

[ORH_wxman]

Right...it's not all about climate change....synoptic factors such as a +NAO can negate it for a period.

The East Coast has seen very little warming over the past 130 years. But it saw big warming in the 1930s/1940s, then big cooling over the 1960s/1970s, then big warming again in the 1980s/1990s/early 2000s. But recently we've had winters just like the earlier cold periods. Climate change is an extremely small factor here on the scale of variance we are talking about.

[A-L-E-X]

The East Coast has seen very little warming over the past 130 years. But it saw big warming in the 1930s/1940s, then big cooling over the 1960s/1970s, then big warming again in the 1980s/1990s/early 2000s. But recently we've had winters just like the earlier cold periods. Climate change is an extremely small factor here on the scale of variance we are talking about.

Weren't the 90s also a period of extreme solar activity, Will? I remember this being mentioned in the early 90s when we had some extremely warm years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The East Coast has seen very little warming over the past 130 years. But it saw big warming in the 1930s/1940s, then big cooling over the 1960s/1970s, then big warming again in the 1980s/1990s/early 2000s. But recently we've had winters just like the earlier cold periods. Climate change is an extremely small factor here on the scale of variance we are talking about.

Yes, but one can never know when that neat little cycle will end.