Winter 2011-2012

[free_man]

We're going head-first into another era of 80s and early 90s winters, so make sure to have children soon, so your grandkids have something to look forward to when winters become snowy again.

[J.Spin]

We should be so fortunate to be living through these winters. We (especially the 25-35 yr group) have lived through the dreaded 80's and early 90s, and have constantly been beaten over the head by our parents about how the winters were great when they were kids. Now it's been our turn and one of the great things about this, is the fact that we now understand how these things are cyclical. I can't tell you how envious I was of seeing childhood picks of my folks in the snow from the 60s, and hearing about how awesome winter was. Well, perhaps we shall be the ones telling our kids that in about 10-15 years.

I didn’t follow snowfall numbers closely in the 80s and 90s, but I was in the BTV area during that period and I recall several great ski seasons in the 90s for the mountains, so I decided to see what the numbers would say. The Central and Northern Greens don’t necessarily track right with BTV, but that’s the closest long-term NWS site for snowfall that I could think of, so I went to BTV’s monthly snowfall data page:

http://www.erh.noaa..../snowfall.shtml

calculated the decadal averages, and put them into a table:

The BTV average annual snowfall for that 1884-2011 period is 73.3”, so when I saw that the 90s came out at 84.1” that didn’t seem too shabby. Even the 80s came out right around average at 71.8”, higher than any of those six decades leading up to the 40s. But boy, once you look at the 70s and 2000s, those 80s are put into a different perspective. Perhaps they are the lowest decade for what might be a “new” normal. I think I recall Powderfreak mentioning that the BTV site moved from downtown near the lake to the current location at the airport at some point though, so I wonder when that happened and what effect it had on the numbers. Perhaps he’ll chime in if he pops into this thread.

[J.Spin]

We should be so fortunate to be living through these winters. We (especially the 25-35 yr group) have lived through the dreaded 80's and early 90s, and have constantly been beaten over the head by our parents about how the winters were great when they were kids.

As I was reading through I noticed that you specified the early 90s, and at least for BTV it looks like 1990-1991 was the big stinker in there with just 42.5”. That's a bottom ten winter, ranking 119 out of 127.

[CoastalWx]

As I was reading through I noticed that you specified the early 90s, and at least for BTV it looks like 1990-1991 was the big stinker in there with just 42.5”. That's a bottom ten winter ranking 119 out of 127.

There were some good years up that way in the 80s. I think '81-'82 and '83-'84 and 86-'87 were good up that way....just going off the top of my head. +NAO seasons are much kinder to NNE. Down here, we had some good years..especially the interior with those years mentioned, but overall they were kind of crappy. By early 90s, I meant up to and including '91-'92. It wasn't until the December 1992 nor'easter, that we began to make a run for big winters.

[tamarack]

There were some good years up that way in the 80s. I think '81-'82 and '83-'84 and 86-'87 were good up that way....just going off the top of my head. +NAO seasons are much kinder to NNE. Down here, we had some good years..especially the interior with those years mentioned, but overall they were kind of crappy. By early 90s, I meant up to and including '91-'92. It wasn't until the December 1992 nor'easter, that we began to make a run for big winters.

Some decade numbers for farther east in NNE:

Locat'n...CAR.....Farmington......Bests and Worsts

1890s.....N/A........101.7....6 yr

1900s.....N/A..........93.2

1910s.....N/A..........80.9

1920s.....N/A........101.9

1930s.....N/A..........83.4

1940s......94.1.......80.2....CAR: 58" in 43-44

1950s....115.4.......84.5

1960s....120.5.......95.4....Farm: 164.0" in 68-69

1970s....126.6.....103.1

1980s....107.4.......75.6....Farm: 43.3" in 80-81 (and 44.3" in 79-80)

1990s....110.4.......87.8

2000s....122.0.......96.3....CAR: 197.8" in 07-08

2010s......72.1.......72.1....1.6 yr

Average...112.6.....89.7

[Ginx snewx]

It is worrisome to me to see Tubes come around to my brand of thinking, j/k good post and very reflective of my thoughts I posted way back in this thread. Nice to see Brian and Will enthused also, Jerry will capitulate no doubt.

[OKpowdah]

It is worrisome to me to see Tubes come around to my brand of thinking, j/k good post and very reflective of my thoughts I posted way back in this thread. Nice to see Brian and Will enthused also, Jerry will capitulate no doubt.

We've got some big guns leaving towards our side for next winter! Just need Jerry to come around now

[weathafella]

We've got some big guns leaving towards our side for next winter! Just need Jerry to come around now

Have to see what the summer brings. Interesting that while we've had these cutoffs crimping summer for up to 5 days at times, NYC south has been full summer for a month or more. If we get a warm and dry July/August, I will look very differently towards the upcoming winter vs right now. On a here and now note, this wx absolutely blows.

[Ginx snewx]

Have to see what the summer brings. Interesting that while we've had these cutoffs crimping summer for up to 5 days at times, NYC south has been full summer for a month or more. If we get a warm and dry July/August, I will look very differently towards the upcoming winter vs right now. On a here and now note, this wx absolutely blows.

Not following your logic, do you not remember the summer of 92?

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/talessum.php

[Mr Torchey]

Gut feeling, but I think it may be a slow winter in terms of snowfall. I always felt like good winters followed nice sunny hot summers. Who knows, but I hear Bastardi likes the northeast this year, another reason to be nervous.

[weatherMA]

Gut feeling, but I think it may be a slow winter in terms of snowfall. I always felt like good winters followed nice sunny hot summers. Who knows, but I hear Bastardi likes the northeast this year, another reason to be nervous.

You should be nervous down there near Jersey but the rest of us are good.

[powderfreak]

I didn’t follow snowfall numbers closely in the 80s and 90s, but I was in the BTV area during that period and I recall several great ski seasons in the 90s for the mountains, so I decided to see what the numbers would say. The Central and Northern Greens don’t necessarily track right with BTV, but that’s the closest long-term NWS site for snowfall that I could think of, so I went to BTV’s monthly snowfall data page:

http://www.erh.noaa..../snowfall.shtml

calculated the decadal averages, and put them into a table:

I think I recall Powderfreak mentioning that the BTV site moved from downtown near the lake to the current location at the airport at some point though, so I wonder when that happened and what effect it had on the numbers. Perhaps he’ll chime in if he pops into this thread.

Great data, J.Spin... wow were the first 50 years of the 1900s quite "crappy" (for lack of a better word) in terms of snowfall. I must be spoiled because my time-frame up here is in the decade when BTV has averaged 91.9" of snow... and that's one of the lowest snowfall areas in the state (minus the Champlain Valley further south and maybe down near Brattleboro in the CT Valley). I'd rather not see another string of decades where the average snowfall is a full 30-inches less!

And yes, regarding the BTV site it moved from downtown/UVM area to the current airport location in 1934.

Here's a good paper regarding the history of surface weather observations in the Burlington, VT area:

http://mcc.sws.uiuc....ington_Doty.pdf

" Weather observing in the Burlington, Vermont area was begun in January 1832 by Zadock Thompson. Thompson took observations in the area until his death in December 1855 but his widow, Mrs. Phebe Thompson, continued observations until December 1856. At this time, N. K. Petty assumed the role as observer on the campus of the University of Vermont, a location begun by Mr. Thompson. Petty’s observations end in 1864 and it wasn’t until May 1871 that the U.S. Army’s Signal Service established an observing program in Burlington being located at several sites in the downtown area. Walter Benton Gates served as a volunteer Signal Service observer from October 1883 until March 1906 when the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Weather Bureau established a city office. The move to the municipal airport was made in March 1934. In February 1950, the Weather Bureau office moved to a new Administration Building at the airport."

Here's a map from the paper/study showing the BTV historical surface observing stations:

[OKpowdah]

Not worth much, but this is the composite I get for this winter based on spring analogs. Doesn't look great...

[J.Spin]

I must be spoiled because my time-frame up here is in the decade when BTV has averaged 91.9" of snow...

Thanks for that reference about the Burlington weather observations PF; it’s neat to see the evolution through so many buildings/locations that we know around here. The 2000s was certainly a good decade for BTV snowfall as you said, and the 2010s have at least started off on a nice note with 128.4 inches of snow for 2010-2011, ranking it an impressive 3rd out of 127 seasons. It is interesting to note that even in a big season like that for BTV, the Northern Greens were still pretty average in terms of snowfall as I mentioned in my earlier post in the thread. Although it would be nice to get some extra dry days in while summer is here, I don’t think many skiers would complain if this wet pattern was to keep some steam into the 2011-2012 snow season; I just updated my CoCoRaHS precipitation totals from the house this morning, and at the current pace we’re on track for 65-70 inches of liquid for the calendar year down here in the valley, and you know that number only goes up with elevation. That kind of precipitation would make for a boatload of mountain snow with average or even somewhat above average temperatures during the snow season.

[weathafella]

Not following your logic, do you not remember the summer of 92?

http://www.crh.noaa....tx/talessum.php

Yes. But we have not had anything remotely close to resembling Pinataubo which cooled us for 5 years.

[Ginx snewx]

Yes. But we have not had anything remotely close to resembling Pinataubo which cooled us for 5 years.

We had two volcanos last year, high and low lats which were not Pinatubos but note worthy. Also there are many wet summers which led to big winters as Will as pointed out.I was laughed at with my 1816 joke summer but so far it's been abnormally wet and cold

[nzucker]

We had two volcanos last year, high and low lats which were not Pinatubos but note worthy. Also there are many wet summers which led to big winters as Will as pointed out.I was laughed at with my 1816 joke summer but so far it's been abnormally wet and cold

None of the volcanoes ejected a significant volume of SO2 into the troposphere like Pinatubo, so they're fairly irrelevant from a climate perspective. You need a really big volcano to change the Earth's climate, and that hasn't happened at all yet.

Also, most stations on the East Coast have seen slightly above normal temperatures this June. Only eastern NE has been cool with the marine layer locked in. Although this June hasn't been impressive for big heat like 2010, it certainly hasn't been a Year Without a Summer, either.

[nzucker]

Not worth much, but this is the composite I get for this winter based on spring analogs. Doesn't look great...

Man, that's ugly...raging +NAO with a dreaded vortex over Western AK/Bering Strait (+EPO)...recipe for a torch.

Luckily, I think analogs are of little use with the anomalous solar minimum. We had a huge high-latitude blocking regime in both a strong Niño and a strong Niña, so that may prove we're in unusual waters.

[Ginx snewx]

None of the volcanoes ejected a significant volume of SO2 into the troposphere like Pinatubo, so they're fairly irrelevant from a climate perspective. You need a really big volcano to change the Earth's climate, and that hasn't happened at all yet.

Also, most stations on the East Coast have seen slightly above normal temperatures this June. Only eastern NE has been cool with the marine layer locked in. Although this June hasn't been impressive for big heat like 2010, it certainly hasn't been a Year Without a Summer, either.

Of course the year without summer was a joke but last years volcanos were certainly relevant and I am speaking about Jerry and I's backyard.

[OKpowdah]

Man, that's ugly...raging +NAO with a dreaded vortex over Western AK/Bering Strait (+EPO)...recipe for a torch.

Luckily, I think analogs are of little use with the anomalous solar minimum. We had a huge high-latitude blocking regime in both a strong Niño and a strong Niña, so that may prove we're in unusual waters.

Here's the top ten analog years I get. Quite a range in terms of snowfall. There are few good years in there, and a few putrid ones.

1948

1989

2003

1976

1974

1960

1990

1993

1961

1982

I also agree that, especially at this range, this doesn't hold too much weight

[weathafella]

Of course the year without summer was a joke but last years volcanos were certainly relevant and I am speaking about Jerry and I's backyard.

Volcanoes aside, I think you can make an argument either way wrt summer. 1995, 2002, 2010....blazing summers, epic winters. But I think we're all jumping the gun on summer......kind of like warmth in December that flips in early January to an epic 2-3 months. We'll know alot more in about 2 weeks. eg: Euro last night put a big FU on Kevin's foreheard wrt 4th weekend.

[Ginx snewx]

Volcanoes aside, I think you can make an argument either way wrt summer. 1995, 2002, 2010....blazing summers, epic winters. But I think we're all jumping the gun on summer......kind of like warmth in December that flips in early January to an epic 2-3 months. We'll know alot more in about 2 weeks. eg: Euro last night put a big FU on Kevin's foreheard wrt 4th weekend.

Yea way early but ORH PVD BDLBOS are all below normal for June now. I expect mid July to mid Aug we relatively torch but it's a short summer this year. Fully expect a major Hybrid TS scare then noreaster fall. We will see but again I really like how this is evolving.

[CoastalWx]

Volcanoes aside, I think you can make an argument either way wrt summer. 1995, 2002, 2010....blazing summers, epic winters. But I think we're all jumping the gun on summer......kind of like warmth in December that flips in early January to an epic 2-3 months. We'll know alot more in about 2 weeks. eg: Euro last night put a big FU on Kevin's foreheard wrt 4th weekend.

[weathafella]

Yea way early but ORH PVD BDLBOS are all below normal for June now. I expect mid July to mid Aug we relatively torch but it's a short summer this year. Fully expect a major Hybrid TS scare then noreaster fall. We will see but again I really like how this is evolving.

Noreaster fall will be a great signal....I'd love to see that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

All I know is that this summer has failed to torture me, much like the summer of 2009.....congrats, DC.

Seriously, though.....I think above avg snowfall, not too dissimilar from '08-'09.

[Ginx snewx]

Noreaster fall will be a great signal....I'd love to see that.

Not SNE speaking but in this year of disaster is there any doubt the US gets struck by a major this year. Man just incredible. The increased WV hypothesis is most interesting, one of the better reads I have read this summer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not SNE speaking but in this year of disaster is there any doubt the US gets struck by a major this year. Man just incredible. The increased WV hypothesis is most interesting, one of the better reads I have read this summer.

Enlighten me....

[Ginx snewx]

All I know is that this summer has failed to torture me, much like the summer of 2009.....congrats, DC.

Seriously, though.....I think above avg snowfall, not too dissimilar from '08-'09.

It would not surprise me at all if CNE from you up exceed 08/09

[Ginx snewx]

Enlighten me....

I have to go find it brb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It would not surprise me at all if CNE from you up exceed 08/09

I'll take north of 82.5".

I beat Will that season.