Winter 2011-2012

[ORH_wxman]

Fixed.

Those winters, 00-01 and 08-09, had roughly the same amount of snowfall here, around 45"...I think my Poconos house may have done real well in 00-01. Do you have any idea what happened up there that winter, Will?

Despite all the disappointment, March '01 gave Westchester around 12" of snow, and I think there was another event in March as well. December 2000 was also a good storm for this area although North-Central NJ got way more than Westchester, with some places seeing over 20". I think Dobbs had like 14" or something...it was brutally cold that month, I do remember it even though I was young. I had several USTA tennis tournaments and lessons, and I remember how hard it was to dress well as you didn't want to have to deal with changing out of too many jackets and sweaters with the limited time we had given that many of the matches/lessons were only like an hour after school, and quite far from my house...yet, if you didn't bundle up, you'd be uncomfortable REAL fast.

To be honest, December 2000 was probably the last great December my area has seen. Dec 2002 was nice with around 11" on the Christmas storm, but temperatures ended right around average. December '03 and '04 were pretty mild, '05 was mediocre, '06 was a torch, and '07 was snowless. My area missed out on the 12/19/09 storm with only 8" while LI and SE CT had 16-20"; that was a pretty cold December, but missing the brunt of that much acclaimed Nor'easter really lowered the grade. This December was pretty much the same: we had the brutal cold like Dec '00, and I absolutely loved the chill, but I only got 13" in the Boxing Day storm that dumped 20-30" across the NYC metro, so that stung a bit. There were no other snow events except for 1.5" that fell in an arctic front on 12/13, and we barely missed a big storm on 12/19 which only hit Cape Cod (I got criticized for going too low with snow on Cape Cod, although saying 4 days out that the storm would miss due to the poor PNA and broad trough was a gutsy call given that the Euro was showing a HECS with the GFS not far away....I thought this was one of my better forecasts aside from 1/27/11 when I said NYC was going to get smacked despite the Euro showing mostly rain 72 hours out. You may disagree but that's OK.) In any case, I thought December 2010 was a bit boring for tracking except 12/26; it was a shame to miss out on the chance to have more snow cover since we had days and days with highs in the 20s and low 30s. The station downtown recorded 16 days with highs <35F and 8 days with highs <32F. The averages here are around 48/30 on December 1st and 38/26 on December 31st, so that's impressive for my area.

In any case, I do feel that Westchester is due for a bigger December in terms of snowfall. We just can't seem to get the ideal mix of big snowstorms and cold weather in December lately, even though the month has generally had a cold/snowy vibe. Our snowiest Decembers, like 2002, weren't that cold. And our coldest Decembers, like 2010, just weren't that snowy. It hasn't been a pattern problem, however, as the 12/26/10 and 12/19/09 storms could have pounded us, we were just miles away. I could see a BIG December this year with a weak Nina, a dropping QBO, and the solar minimum.

I was surprised to look at Dobbs Ferry coop and see they have not had a 20"+ December since 1960. They obviously are hard to get but I thought maybe they'd snag one in 1990s or early 2000s. They had 5 Decembers of 20"+ between 1945 and 1960 and havent had one since. The December snow climo down there though is definitely a lot tougher than up north, but I'd agree you guys are probably due for a monster.

December 2000 was pretty "meh" for me. It was cold, but we got dryslotted in the 12/30 storm so we only got 10". We did have a white Christmas because of back to back light events on Dec 20 and Dec 22...but the 2nd one was a huge bust. We got like 2" when 5-8" was predicted. It was in response to the ETA model having all sorts of problems that month due to an SST error along the east coast that was not discovered until January I believe. I think we had around 17" of snow total for the month which is above average by a few inches, but it still was kind of unremarkable for me.

December 2008 takes the cake here in recent years. Got a completely devastating ice storm...then followed by 31" of snow for the month. Great winter month. I could have done without the Grinch Storm on Christmas Eve and the torch on Dec 29 though. 2007 was really good too. But for my lifetime, nothing beats December 1992. All because of one storm.

We'll probably have a decent shot at a cold December again this year if we go cold ENSO which is looks more and more like it will.

[ORH_wxman]

Those two winters had very different evolution though. February and March were polar opposites lol. But yeah, but great interior winters.

I love how for every pre-winter thread in the last decade, one of us manages to bring up 2001 at least once a week Just an incredible couple of months.

Oh I wasn't claiming the evolved they same way, lol. January was so much colder in '09 than '01 too. I was just saying that overall they both had a lot of cold in the northern tier.

'00-'01 is kind of like N ORH county's and SW NH's '04-'05 for Cape Cod. We barely got in on the southern zone of the jackpot in that winter and the NW zone in '04-'05. Both winters broke 100" here but '00-'01 feels more special probably because of the March '01 hype and the insane Feb storm. '05 had the Jan blizzard though Cape Cod got the worst of it and the rest of the winter was a ton of 6-12" events.

[nzucker]

I was surprised to look at Dobbs Ferry coop and see they have not had a 20"+ December since 1960. They obviously are hard to get but I thought maybe they'd snag one in 1990s or early 2000s. They had 5 Decembers of 20"+ between 1945 and 1960 and havent had one since. The December snow climo down there though is definitely a lot tougher than up north, but I'd agree you guys are probably due for a monster.

December 2000 was pretty "meh" for me. It was cold, but we got dryslotted in the 12/30 storm so we only got 10". We did have a white Christmas because of back to back light events on Dec 20 and Dec 22...but the 2nd one was a huge bust. We got like 2" when 5-8" was predicted. It was in response to the ETA model having all sorts of problems that month due to an SST error along the east coast that was not discovered until January I believe. I think we had around 17" of snow total for the month which is above average by a few inches, but it still was kind of unremarkable for me.

December 2008 takes the cake here in recent years. Got a completely devastating ice storm...then followed by 31" of snow for the month. Great winter month. I could have done without the Grinch Storm on Christmas Eve and the torch on Dec 29 though. 2007 was really good too. But for my lifetime, nothing beats December 1992. All because of one storm.

We'll probably have a decent shot at a cold December again this year if we go cold ENSO which is looks more and more like it will.

Thanks Will for another interesting and detailed response...you're probably sick of hearing about Dobbs Ferry (although we do have a great co-op so there is some climo buff stuff to explore).

Dec 1960 had 24.4" of snow, with 19.1" falling in the first of the three big Nor'easters (I think Dobbs was the only place to get at least 18" in all three events, at least that I have heard). There was one nasty arctic shots that month after a mild start and followed by a mild ending; December 12-14th had 17/13, 19/7, and 28/14...January was obviously the coldest month that winter, particularly following the Inauguration storm when Westchester had over a week straight of nights in the single digits. December 1947 had almost no snow the entire month except for the incredible 28.1" the co-op recorded across three days in NYC's second biggest snowfall on record. There was a lot more to come later in the winter, however, with Central Park getting over 60". I was surprised to see 48-49 also had a 20" December...that was such a mild winter east of the Mississippi but managed to be incredibly snowy. What were the other two 20" Decembers? Was it 1946 and 1957, Will?

I loved December 2008, although I was in Middlebury for much of it. Your ice storm was an 8" snowfall capped off by a glaze on campus...it was bitterly cold following the storm with lows near 0F several nights and a gorgeous glistening snow cover. When I finally made it home, I was hit by the 12/19 overrunning event which dumped 8" in Dobbs Ferry; it was sort of a nice surprise because my hometown hadn't had a snowfall that big since 2/06, and no one was expecting that much since it wasn't a traditional coastal but a suppressed SW flow event. Many of my friends were telling me I was crazy to forecast 6-10" as the news stations were quite conservative, some saying only 1-3" the day before the storm! We ended up getting pounded with 35-40dbz echoes training over Westchester, though we did have a tad bit of sleet contamination late in the storm, which may have shaved an inch off. To me, snow always means more in the place where I grew up, and the miniature snow drought for Dobbs made it sweeter. Of course, an 8" storm seems like nothing now as we've had 9 snowfalls of >8" and 5 storms >12" since Dec 08 with almost 185" snow in the past 3 winters. We got hit again with 2.5" of snow on 12/21 followed by icing, a storm that totally pounded Middlebury with nearly a foot. Unfortunately, the month turned very mild afterwards...I barely managed to record a White Christmas, and then flew to Chicago on 12/26 from EWR with temperatures in the 60s. I went on a snowshoeing trip in Northern Michigan around New Year's with a close friend from college...they still had 18" on the ground near Traverse City, but the snowpack had been over 30" in the hills there before the torch.

Unlike Jerry, I'm getting more and more pumped for this coming winter. With the huge dip in the solar cycle imminent and the dropping QBO, we have a nice combination that favors an early stratospheric warming and thus a -NAO/-AO. I'm starting to believe we'll see major high-latitude blocking in the early parts of the winter; a weak Nina usually is favorable for a -NAO, and when you add the solar and QBO both being in the right state for it, I wouldn't be shocked to see a pattern like December 2010, albeit with a slightly weaker northern jet that could be better for the Mid-Atlantic. The continuing tri-pole configuration in the Atlantic with colder waters near the Canadian Maritimes may also reinforce the -NAO tendency. Also, AMSU analysis is showing global SSTs at the bottom of the pack, so we may have just a bit more cold to tap this winter given that the globe is definitely going to be in a cooler state than it was immediately after the 09-10 El Nino. Finally, a lot of second/third year La Ninas have been kind to us....thinking of 55-56, 84-85 (not a great winter but with one of the greatest arctic shots of all time), 00-01, and 08-09. There aren't a lot of analogs for a weak, second year Nina that blows. And we're on a hot streak here with three consecutive above average winters, with 09-10 and 10-11 both having almost double the average...68" in 09-10 and 69.5" in 10-11 from my measurements. NYC has had the greatest snowfall anomaly (by percent) in the past decade of all the major East Coast cities, despite the pounding DCA/BWI received in 09-10.

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks Will for another interesting and detailed response...you're probably sick of hearing about Dobbs Ferry (although we do have a great co-op so there is some climo buff stuff to explore).

Dec 1960 had 24.4" of snow, with 19.1" falling in the first of the three big Nor'easters (I think Dobbs was the only place to get at least 18" in all three events, at least that I have heard). There was one nasty arctic shots that month after a mild start and followed by a mild ending; December 12-14th had 17/13, 19/7, and 28/14...January was obviously the coldest month that winter, particularly following the Inauguration storm when Westchester had over a week straight of nights in the single digits. December 1947 had almost no snow the entire month except for the incredible 28.1" the co-op recorded across three days in NYC's second biggest snowfall on record. There was a lot more to come later in the winter, however, with Central Park getting over 60". I was surprised to see 48-49 also had a 20" December...that was such a mild winter east of the Mississippi but managed to be incredibly snowy. What were the other two 20" Decembers? Was it 1946 and 1957, Will?

I loved December 2008, although I was in Middlebury for much of it. Your ice storm was an 8" snowfall capped off by a glaze on campus...it was bitterly cold following the storm with lows near 0F several nights and a gorgeous glistening snow cover. When I finally made it home, I was hit by the 12/19 overrunning event which dumped 8" in Dobbs Ferry; it was sort of a nice surprise because my hometown hadn't had a snowfall that big since 2/06, and no one was expecting that much since it wasn't a traditional coastal but a suppressed SW flow event. Many of my friends were telling me I was crazy to forecast 6-10" as the news stations were quite conservative, some saying only 1-3" the day before the storm! We ended up getting pounded with 35-40dbz echoes training over Westchester, though we did have a tad bit of sleet contamination late in the storm, which may have shaved an inch off. To me, snow always means more in the place where I grew up, and the miniature snow drought for Dobbs made it sweeter. Of course, an 8" storm seems like nothing now as we've had 9 snowfalls of >8" and 5 storms >12" since Dec 08 with almost 185" snow in the past 3 winters. We got hit again with 2.5" of snow on 12/21 followed by icing, a storm that totally pounded Middlebury with nearly a foot. Unfortunately, the month turned very mild afterwards...I barely managed to record a White Christmas, and then flew to Chicago on 12/26 from EWR with temperatures in the 60s. I went on a snowshoeing trip in Northern Michigan around New Year's with a close friend from college...they still had 18" on the ground near Traverse City, but the snowpack had been over 30" in the hills there before the torch.

Unlike Jerry, I'm getting more and more pumped for this coming winter. With the huge dip in the solar cycle imminent and the dropping QBO, we have a nice combination that favors an early stratospheric warming and thus a -NAO/-AO. I'm starting to believe we'll see major high-latitude blocking in the early parts of the winter; a weak Nina usually is favorable for a -NAO, and when you add the solar and QBO both being in the right state for it, I wouldn't be shocked to see a pattern like December 2010, albeit with a slightly weaker northern jet that could be better for the Mid-Atlantic. The continuing tri-pole configuration in the Atlantic with colder waters near the Canadian Maritimes may also reinforce the -NAO tendency. Also, AMSU analysis is showing global SSTs at the bottom of the pack, so we may have just a bit more cold to tap this winter given that the globe is definitely going to be in a cooler state than it was immediately after the 09-10 El Nino. Finally, a lot of second/third year La Ninas have been kind to us....thinking of 55-56, 84-85 (not a great winter but with one of the greatest arctic shots of all time), 00-01, and 08-09. There aren't a lot of analogs for a weak, second year Nina that blows. And we're on a hot streak here with three consecutive above average winters, with 09-10 and 10-11 both having almost double the average...68" in 09-10 and 69.5" in 10-11 from my measurements. NYC has had the greatest snowfall anomaly (by percent) in the past decade of all the major East Coast cities, despite the pounding DCA/BWI received in 09-10.

The good run of winters makes me nervous a tad. Not that it means anything statistically. We had 17 consecutive winters near or above average from 1955-1972, but it still makes me think we're due for an ugly stretch. But given the NAO tendency, I think its probably not going to be another 1980s coming any time soon.

This winter has good signs to it. I like the -QBO and cold enso combo for New England. Its usually very good.

[nzucker]

The good run of winters makes me nervous a tad. Not that it means anything statistically. We had 17 consecutive winters near or above average from 1955-1972, but it still makes me think we're due for an ugly stretch. But given the NAO tendency, I think its probably not going to be another 1980s coming any time soon.

This winter has good signs to it. I like the -QBO and cold enso combo for New England. Its usually very good.

Yeah, I mean climo has to bring us back to reality at some point here in NYC metro, one would assume. However, NASA seems to be convinced we're entering a very anomalous solar minimum due to the absence of the solar jet stream which would normally signal the development of Cycle 25, as well as the continued low production of sunspots and geomagnetism...this argues that winter lovers may be in for a treat, especially since some top scientists are now saying a Maunder Minimum is a possibility. We know that there were long streaks of extremely cold/snowy winters during the Maunder and Dalton Minimums; these winters saw continual snow cover in NYC from late November-late March, and both NYC and PHL are believed to have received over 100" of snow during a few of the low solar years. The presence of a -NAO was apparent as Greenland's temperatures increased during the 1600s as per ice core data despite global cooling; the extremity of the -NAO combined with global temperatures dropping was particularly noticeable in England. Though it had only frozen once every 30-50 winters prior to the Maunder, the Thames River froze quite regularly in the 1600s, with complete ice-overs in 1608, 1621, 1635, 1649, 1655, 1663, 1666, and 1677.

I like the coalescence of factors pointing towards colder/snowier winters: NAO decadal cycle going negative, extreme solar minimum, -PDO, dropping AMO, increased winter snow cover over the NH, etc. This doesn't mean we can't see some clunkers, but the odds of long periods of below average snowfall like the 1980s and much of the 1990s seem to be going down.

Will, do you think we will see too much of a latitude gradient for Dobbs Ferry to do well? You seem to be hinting at a cold ENSO/-QBO combination being more favorable the further north you go, but do I rate to be on the good side of the line like Winter 10-11 or the frustrating side like Winter 07-08? In Nina winters, we almost always see some gradient....in 07-08 it was around Albany for above average, from BTV north for historic...in 08-09, it was around PHL for average, around the MA/VT border for huge snows...in 10-11 it was again just south of PHL for decent, and then about NYC north for historic. I tend to think we'll do well given that it's a second year Nina and a weaker one, and the fact that we're not reliant as much on the STJ, but I wonder what you think for NYC, the Poconos, CT/RI, etc?

[ORH_wxman]

Will, do you think we will see too much of a latitude gradient for Dobbs Ferry to do well? You seem to be hinting at a cold ENSO/-QBO combination being more favorable the further north you go, but do I rate to be on the good side of the line like Winter 10-11 or the frustrating side like Winter 07-08? In Nina winters, we almost always see some gradient....in 07-08 it was around Albany for above average, from BTV north for historic...in 08-09, it was around PHL for average, around the MA/VT border for huge snows...in 10-11 it was again just south of PHL for decent, and then about NYC north for historic. I tend to think we'll do well given that it's a second year Nina and a weaker one, and the fact that we're not reliant as much on the STJ, but I wonder what you think for NYC, the Poconos, CT/RI, etc?

Almost every cold ENSO and -QBO combo has produced a N/S gradient for snowfall anomalies. Doesn't mean it has to happen again but its something that has a good chance of happening this winter. Weak Nina probably would be ok there in these gradient setups...you normally get skunked in the stronger Nina/-QBO setups like '07-'08 and '70-'71. Though even in '70-'71 you ended up around average while NYC was totally screwed and SNE was hit hard. '07-'08 had the gradient more near the MA/CT border so you were done. We probably wont see a gradient that tight and that far north if ENSO is weak which it looks like it might be.

It doesn't sound very outlandish or anything, but I'd probably throw a ballpark guess of within 5-8" of average there slightly leaning toward the more positive side if the past is any indication. But each winte ris different and has its own nuances. Last year is a perfect example...strong blocking and then a well timed big +PNA made for an extremely snowy winter for 40N and just below historic for parts of SNE despite a strong La Nina and a +QBO which would have suggested something a lot more tame. That's why last year I got on your case for you saying there was no way Boston would see 70".

Even though I wouldn't have predicted that either (and didn't), it was still a possibility because each winter has its own unique nuances, and a La Nina wasn't 100% hostile for big snow in Boston...it had happened before even if it wasn't very common and our sample size was limited. We still need to see the autumn and its trends to get a better idea.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The good run of winters makes me nervous a tad. Not that it means anything statistically. We had 17 consecutive winters near or above average from 1955-1972, but it still makes me think we're due for an ugly stretch. But given the NAO tendency, I think its probably not going to be another 1980s coming any time soon.

This winter has good signs to it. I like the -QBO and cold enso combo for New England. Its usually very good.

I keep hearing about this "good run", but I'm only a hair above avg over the past several years....look in my sig.

[ORH_wxman]

I keep hearing about this "good run", but I'm only a hair above avg over the past several years....look in my sig.

I'm talking more about the last 18 or 19 years since 1992. Not the string starting with the crappy winter of '06-'07. I think BOS has averaged about 48" since that time and ORH is at 77". That is a pretty damn good run spanning almost two decades that is more than 10% above climo. Greater than 10% above previous 50 year climo is pretty tough to do in a 2 decade run. It basically resets climo itself as saying that the previous 50 year sample actually was a bit too low to represent the true snowfall for the region...its that type of numbers game.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm talking more about the last 18 or 19 years since 1992. Not the string starting with the crappy winter of '06-'07. I think BOS has averaged about 48" since that time and ORH is at 77". That is a pretty damn good run spanning almost two decades that is more than 10% above climo. Greater than 10% above previous 50 year climo is pretty tough to do in a 2 decade run.

I anticipated your response and my 19 year mean since '92-93' is 65.8", about 2" LESS than "the string starting with the crappy winter of '06-'07" and a mere 2.4" above my running 51 year seasonal mean.

Fact, not opinion.

[ORH_wxman]

I anticipated your response and my 19 year mean since '92-93' is 65.8", about 2" LESS than "the string starting with the crappy winter of '06-'07" and a mere 2" above my running 51 year seasonal mean.

Fact, not opinion.

A 19 year mean several inches above climo is hard to get and implies a very good run. The 1980s were historically putrid so that weights down our climo. What is your climo starting with '02-'03 (the last 9 winters)? I bets its way over 70". Looks like Reading has missing data for Jan 2003 and Nov 2002, but they probably had like 85" that year.

[nzucker]

It doesn't sound very outlandish or anything, but I'd probably throw a ballpark guess of within 5-8" of average there slightly leaning toward the more positive side if the past is any indication. But each winte ris different and has its own nuances. Last year is a perfect example...strong blocking and then a well timed big +PNA made for an extremely snowy winter for 40N and just below historic for parts of SNE despite a strong La Nina and a +QBO which would have suggested something a lot more tame. That's why last year I got on your case for you saying there was no way Boston would see 70".

Even though I wouldn't have predicted that either (and didn't), it was still a possibility because each winter has its own unique nuances, and a La Nina wasn't 100% hostile for big snow in Boston...it had happened before even if it wasn't very common and our sample size was limited. We still need to see the autumn and its trends to get a better idea.

Yes, I think I put too much faith in ENSO analogs last winter. It was totally unprecedented for NYC to see a 60" winter in a strong La Niña, but it happened with the big --NAO in December/early January and then the MJO-guided PNA spike later that month which helped bring to fruition the 1/27 Nor'easter, in which Central Park received 19" snowfall. Previously, the best strong Niña winter at Central Park in modern times was 55-56, and that was only a bit over 30"...We did get a glimpse of what the pattern might have been like without blocking in February and March, which were brutally boring except for the 8" that fell here in the 2/21 overrunning scenario. Winter did really shift north after 1/27, although the 2/2 SW flow event was supposed to be a bigger snowstorm here and then turned into more of an icestorm at the last minute. However, when you look at the overall 500mb map for Winter 10-11, it was almost exactly the same as the map for Winter 09-10 despite a completely opposite ENSO state.

More than anything, I think the last two winters proved to me that we're in an unprecedented state with the natural NAO decadal cycle teaming up with an anomalous lack of solar activity to produce very unusual blocking patterns. It's uncommon to have a powerful -NAO in a strong El Niño (though west-based helps) and even rarer to see it a strong La Niña. Having the >570dm block over Greenland this past December definitely made me believe more in the power of the sun. Although the -NAO has faded some since then, perhaps a natural byproduct of the Pacific pattern, I think it comes back strong next winter. With the cooler global temperatures, -PDO pattern favoring more cold in Western Canada and North America's High Plains, as well as the blocking...I could see Winter 11-12 being a severe one for many. It's a bit early to get into specifics but I like the fact that we're moving more towards weak Niña rather than neutral. It seems that the Niñas really fill Canada with cold air, and another year of cold ENSO should give the cooling of the globe a kick in the pants especially with what we're seeing from solar. I also believe the STJ could become a factor if the Nina fades later in the winter, as it did during February/March 1996.

It just sucks that it's only late June...I love gardening in the summer and being outdoors, but winter is my season. There's so many months before we even get a crisp airmass, much less a snowfall. I wish winter were longer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

A 19 year mean several inches above climo is hard to get and implies a very good run. The 1980s were historically putrid so that weights down our climo. What is your climo starting with '02-'03 (the last 9 winters)? I bets its way over 70". Looks like Reading has missing data for Jan 2003 and Nov 2002, but they probably had like 85" that year.

You can't cherry pick which info you would like to stress....the 1960's were great....it happens.

The answer to your question is 70.7"...what is your point....I'll go back to the 80s and find a 9 year span that was equally as far below my mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My area is relatively resistant to large deviations from the mean with regard to snowfall....I will often get "screwed" in great seasons, and find myself in a maxima in meager seasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Reading had 86.8" in '02-'03.

[ORH_wxman]

You can't cherry pick which info you would like to stress....the 1960's were great....it happens.

The answer to your question is 70.7"...what is your point....I'll go back to the 80s and find a 9 year span that was equally as far below my mean.

Well you are trying to say that the recent good snowfall is "meh" even though its part of your 50+ year mean. You said you'd go back to the 1980s and find a putrid stretch...and you are right. I was just saying we should probably appreciate this good stretch, because its opposite is the 1980s garbage stretch.

I'm actually not quite sure what your point was in response to my original assertation we've been in a good stretch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well you are trying to say that the recent good snowfall is "meh" even though its part of your 50+ year mean. You said you'd go back to the 1980s and find a putrid stretch...and you are right. I was just saying we should probably appreciate this good stretch, because its opposite is the 1980s garbage stretch.

I'm actually not quite sure what your point was in response to my original assertation we've been in a good stretch.

Huh.....what are you taking about.....did you miss the month long orgasm that I had last January and how I promptly stopped b**ching....

My point is that this recent stretch, while enjoyable, has not resulted in an excessively large surplus of snowfall for my locale.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My area is relatively resistant to large deviations from the mean with regard to snowfall....I will often get "screwed" in great seasons, and find myself in a maxima in meager seasons.

Huh.....what are you taking about.....did you miss the month long orgasm that I had last January and how I promptly stopped b**ching....

My point is that this recent stretch, while enjoyable, has not resulted in an excessively large surplus of snowfall for my locale.

Maybe in general it has, but not for my area.

[ORH_wxman]

Maybe in general it has, but not for my area.

Your mean before this 19 year stretch was probably closer to 60-61" the current streak has brought it up to 63-64"...that was the point. You can't assume that 63.5" is the normal without taking into account the current 19 year stretch (big portion of the Reading climo) is responsible for that bump up. The Reading station also had the stroke of "luck" of not becoming operational until the late 1950s which was the start of a very snowy period so the putrid late 40s to mid 50s are not included in its climo. The mean is skewed toward good snowfall periods there. It starts with an insanely snowy period and ends with one too....it doesn't have the terrible 1948-1955 stretch that stations like ORH do. If it did, then I think you'd be a tad more impressed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Your mean before this 19 year stretch was probably closer to 60-61" the current streak has brought it up to 63-64"...that was the point. You can't assume that 63.5" is the normal without taking into account the current 19 year stretch (big portion of the Reading climo) is responsible for that bump up. The Reading station also had the stroke of "luck" of not becoming operational until the late 1950s which was the start of a very snowy period so the putrid late 40s to mid 50s are not included in its climo. The mean is skewed toward good snowfall periods there. It starts with an insanely snowy period and ends with one too....it doesn't have the terrible 1948-1955 stretch that stations like ORH do. If it did, then I think you'd be a tad more impressed.

Ok.....that makes sense.

I think 51 years is a very statistically significant sample, though.... climo is only comprised of the last 30 years.

I won't get into this, but I suspect that the warmer globe has resulted in an increase in storm activity.....so you also have to keep an open mind because it is plausible that 63-64" is now more representative.

Regardless, I could live with my mean being skewed by 2".....it's not several inches at this locale, so the regression would not be too painful.

[ORH_wxman]

Ok.....that makes sense.

I think 51 years is a very statitically significant sample, though.... climo is only comprised of the last 30 years.

I won't get into this, but I suspect that the warmer globe has resulted in an increase in storm activity.....so you also have to keep an open mind because it is plausible that 63-64" is now more representative.

Regardless, I could live with my mean being skewed by 2".....it's not several inches at this locale.

Not going to argue with on any of these points...they are all valid. I said this a few posts ago:

I'm talking more about the last 18 or 19 years since 1992. Not the string starting with the crappy winter of '06-'07. I think BOS has averaged about 48" since that time and ORH is at 77". That is a pretty damn good run spanning almost two decades that is more than 10% above climo. Greater than 10% above previous 50 year climo is pretty tough to do in a 2 decade run. It basically resets climo itself as saying that the previous 50 year sample actually was a bit too low to represent the true snowfall for the region...its that type of numbers game.

I was just saying that the current run is pretty darn good. I suspect the "since 1950" mean there is probably like 61-62"...but we are all in a huge snowgasm if you start with 1960. BOS average snowfall since 1960 is over 45" now and that is 50+ years. ORH average snow since that time is around 71". Both a couple inches above the regular "longterm" climo I usually cite which is generally since 1950.

We generally call BOS avg snow 43" and ORH 69" even though the 50 year mean is above those amounts. But since 1960 is kind of cherry picking. But you also might be right that the current regime is more favorable for snow than what we have seen in the past...as cited by that quote I made above. We just don't know. Whether we continue on a path of more favorable snowfall remains to be seen, but perhaps the slightly warmer temps have benefited New England in the short run. But it just might be a fluke and a good run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not going to argue with on any of these points...they are all valid. I said this a few posts ago:

I was just saying that the current run is pretty darn good. I suspect the "since 1950" mean there is probably like 61-62"...but we are all in a huge snowgasm if you start with 1960. BOS average snowfall since 1960 is over 45" now and that is 50+ years. ORH average snow since that time is around 71". Both a couple inches above the regular "longterm" climo I usually cite which is generally since 1950.

We generally call BOS avg snow 43" and ORH 69" even though the 50 year mean is above those amounts. But since 1960 is kind of cherry picking. But you also might be right that the current regime is more favorable for snow than what we have seen in the past...as cited by that quote I made above. We just don't know. Whether we continue on a path of more favorable snowfall remains to be seen, but perhaps the slightly warmer temps have benefited New England in the short run. But it just might be a fluke and a good run.

Won't argue with that.

Good DISCO....can't wait for booze laden ones in a month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

"It basically resets climo itself as saying that the previous 50 year sample actually was a bit too low to represent the true snowfall for the region...its that type of numbers game"

I missed that portion of your post, btw because I was too eager to pounce on your "19 year" retort that I had correctly anticipated....probably would have prevented most of this debate. lol

I need to make sure I read everything.....that is a fault of mine.

[ORH_wxman]

"It basically resets climo itself as saying that the previous 50 year sample actually was a bit too low to represent the true snowfall for the region...its that type of numbers game"

I missed that part of your post, btw because I was too eager to pounce on your "19 year" retort that I had correctly anticipated....probably would have prevented most of this debate. lol

I need to make sure I read everything.....that is a fault of mine.

It wasn't your fault because I edited that in probably while you were posting a response. I edited it like 1 minute after I posted the original response.

I think one thing we can agree on is that your area probably sees about 3-4" more per year than Kevin's area on average. We can pretty much establish that fact.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It wasn't your fault because I edited that in probably while you were posting a response. I edited it like 1 minutes after I posted the original response.

I think one thing we can agree on is that your area probably sees about 3-4" per year than Kevin's area. We can pretty much establish that fact.

I was gonna say.....I had initially doubted that it was originally there, but I am prone to glossing over posts and missing stuff so I just conceded that it was.

Regardless, I would have taken solace in the fact that we essentially reached the same conclusion.

[ORH_wxman]

I was gonna say.....I had initially doubted that it was originally there, but I am prone to glossing over posts and missing stuff so I just conceded that it was.

Regardless, I would have taken solace in the fact that we essentially reached the same conclusion.

Would you agree that you get about 3-4" more than Tolland?

I think that is a good estimate. You normally blow his doors off in winters that you beat him while he usually wins single digits when he beats you...small sample size, but it also appears similarly true before you both posted here. I'd say the avg is like 63" to 59.5" or something.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Would you agree that you get about 3-4" more than Tolland?

I think that is a good estimate. You normally blow his doors off in winters that you beat him while he usually wins single digits when he beats you...small sample size, but it also appears similarly true before you both posted here. I'd say the avg is like 63" to 59.5" or something.

Yes.....though I'd say that his greater capacity for snowfall retention and ice accretion render the winter appeal of our respective locales near a wash.

I prefer the big kahunas and the naked cf twister and he is partial to the 2"\week rates with little melting, so I guess our spots suite us.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes.....though I'd say that his greater capacity for snowfall retention and ice accretion render the winter appeal of our respective locales near a wash.

I prefer the big kahunas and the naked cf twister and he is partial to the 2"\week rates with little melting, so I guess our spots suite us.

Yes, he benefits on those little snowfalls and snow pack retention more than you do...he can get a 3" wet snowfall while you struggle to a cruddy slop inch ala pre-New Years 2010. But you definitely score the larger snowfalls and have a greater shot at an 8"+ snowfall.

[CoastalWx]

We should be so fortunate to be living through these winters. We (especially the 25-35 yr group) have lived through the dreaded 80's and early 90s, and have constantly been beaten over the head by our parents about how the winters were great when they were kids. Now it's been our turn and one of the great things about this, is the fact that we now understand how these things are cyclical. I can't tell you how envious I was of seeing childhood picks of my folks in the snow from the 60s, and hearing about how awesome winter was. Well, perhaps we shall be the ones telling our kids that in about 10-15 years.

[weathafella]

The good run of winters makes me nervous a tad. Not that it means anything statistically. We had 17 consecutive winters near or above average from 1955-1972, but it still makes me think we're due for an ugly stretch. But given the NAO tendency, I think its probably not going to be another 1980s coming any time soon.

This winter has good signs to it. I like the -QBO and cold enso combo for New England. Its usually very good.

This is a major player in my thoughts. Many have said that it shouldn't rule but history always must be remembered. I sure hope I'm wrong. The solar piece could trump alot of my thoughts by promoting a better NAO. As of now thought, I'm worried alot about NAO during the winter as the long NAO string tendency continues into the summer.

[CoastalWx]

This is a major player in my thoughts. Many have said that it shouldn't rule but history always must be remembered. I sure hope I'm wrong. The solar piece could trump alot of my thoughts by promoting a better NAO. As of now thought, I'm worried alot about NAO during the winter as the long NAO string tendency continues into the summer.

I feel the same way as far as the good stretch ending too. It's on my mind, but I'm not too worried about it yet. I think I mentioned it a few pages back, but there are also signs that it could be decent, so we'll see I guess.