ORH_wxman Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I figured I'd start this thread to help us fill in the often boring periods of the warm season. Its very early and we aren't even sure of the ENSO state for next winter, but most probabilities point toward a weak Nina...ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and CFS want to go a neutral-negative by fall. Given that we tend to have multi-year Ninas after a strong El Nino, this would make sense to have a second year of La Nina...but nothing is guaranteed. What we do know with a lot more certainty is that the QBO is likely to be solidly negative this coming winter. Cold ENSO conditions with a -QBO have often produced good winters in New England. Years that match that scenario are 1962-1963, 1967-1968, 1970-1971, 1974-1975, 1983-1984, 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2005-2006, and 2007-2008. Then we have the wildcard which is the NAO. We have already discussed many times that the NAO has been on a decadal trend downward, but that doesn't guarantee it negative for any particular season. Still, you at least favor it negative which would produce very good conditions for snow in New England ala 2000-2001, 1995-1996, 1970-1971, and 1967-1968. There's certainly still some room for a weak Nino as well, but statistically that is quite unlikely. However, we can't totally ignore it just because it doesn't "normally" happen. Many of the plumes on the ECMWF and CFS do want to develop a weak El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. (seriously, I think another above normal Winter is in the cards) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I figured I'd start this thread to help us fill in the often boring periods of the warm season. Its very early and we aren't even sure of the ENSO state for next winter, but most probabilities point toward a weak Nina...ensemble guidance from the ECMWF and CFS want to go a neutral-negative by fall. Given that we tend to have multi-year Ninas after a strong El Nino, this would make sense to have a second year of La Nina...but nothing is guaranteed. What we do know with a lot more certainty is that the QBO is likely to be solidly negative this coming winter. Cold ENSO conditions with a -QBO have often produced good winters in New England. Years that match that scenario are 1962-1963, 1967-1968, 1970-1971, 1974-1975, 1983-1984, 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2005-2006, and 2007-2008. Then we have the wildcard which is the NAO. We have already discussed many times that the NAO has been on a decadal trend downward, but that doesn't guarantee it negative for any particular season. Still, you at least favor it negative which would produce very good conditions for snow in New England ala 2000-2001, 1995-1996, 1970-1971, and 1967-1968. There's certainly still some room for a weak Nino as well, but statistically that is quite unlikely. However, we can't totally ignore it just because it doesn't "normally" happen. Many of the plumes on the ECMWF and CFS do want to develop a weak El Nino. Equatorial OHC is pretty high for a return to La Niña; I'd say neutral-negative is probably the best bet at this point, with weak Niño being significantly more probable than a return to moderate/strong Niña. The warm subsurface has been slowly chipping away at the cold surface waters of the La Niña: You can also see the MJO, while not showing any big Kelvin Waves, has not been favorable for a big La Niña: In terms of blocking and the NAO, we do know that a -QBO in a time of solar minimum does tend to lead to sudden stratospheric warmings, which raise surface pressures in the high latitudes and lead to a -AO/-NAO. Winter 09-10 was a perfect example of how a -QBO combined with an El Niño to warm the stratosphere significantly, leading to an historic blocking pattern that left many winter weenies delighted while others could only watch with the toaster near the tub. If we were to go into El Niño next year, I'd definitely favor a cold/snowy winter for the Northeast. However, one thing that does worry me is it seems the Niña has finally had its way with the high-latitude blocking, and we need to get that back by Winter 11-12. Look at how positive the NAO has averaged in the last few months, really since the 1/12 storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 I could definitely see a neutral ENSO state this coming winter...but I think the chance of an El Nino developing are pretty low. I'd put the chance of another year of La Nina higher than an El Nino. If the -NAO doesn't come back, then its going to likely be a rough winter for the M.A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I'm worried about next winter. I think we (near the coast) will be wanting for snow but don't hold me to it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 I'm worried about next winter. I think we (near the coast) will be wanting for snow but don't hold me to it yet. I'm relatively optimistic for BOS right now Jerry. -QBO usually produces a gradient in cold ENSO where BOS takes advantage of their latitude. Obviously ENSO itself isn't set in stone and nothing is guaranteed, but I think I'd probably bet the over right now for BOS compared to climo on next winter's snowfall. We have a quite a while to figure out the baseline conditions going into next winter...the only one we are fairly sure of is a -QBO. If the NAO doesn't go negative, then we could have some issues...but we survived that combo well in 2007-2008...not so much in 1974-1975 (at least near the coast...interior was average) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I'm relatively optimistic for BOS right now Jerry. -QBO usually produces a gradient in cold ENSO where BOS takes advantage of their latitude. Obviously ENSO itself isn't set in stone and nothing is guaranteed, but I think I'd probably bet the over right now for BOS compared to climo on next winter's snowfall. We have a quite a while to figure out the baseline conditions going into next winter...the only one we are fairly sure of is a -QBO. If the NAO doesn't go negative, then we could have some issues...but we survived that combo well in 2007-2008...not so much in 1974-1975 (at least near the coast...interior was average) I don't really see anything to be excessively worried about, although Jerry was the prophet this year, so who knows... ENSO looks fairly favorable, not much chance of a strong El Niño or strong La Niña, which are the states that most often produce horrid winters. With the recent surge of subsurface warmth and increasing OHC, there's been a lot of talk about going into a weak El Niño; that's a killer combination with a -QBO and -PDO decadal regime, making me think of winters like 63-64, 68-69, 69-70, 76-77, and 77-78. 2004-05 was also a great season in a weak El Niño, with a withering Arctic outbreak during January and of course the HECS dropping 40" on Cape Cod on January 20th. It seems the weak Niños consistently produce a -EPO/Alaska block that brings the coldest conditions into the Northeast...all of the aforementioned winters were quite cold, at least at points, 76-77 and 77-78 being the most extreme. January 1970 averaged 25.1F at Central Park, colder than any January during the 1950s or 1960s. February 1969 had the Hundred Hour storm for New England. I like how a weak El Niño combines with the -PDO: North America is usually colder in the long-term negative PDO cycle, so you take advantage of more arctic air. I also think a weak Niño/-QBO is a classic recipe for a warm stratosphere and thus high-latitude blocking. We had exceptional blocking patterns in months like January 1977 and February 1978, and those were similar conditions although the PDO was beginning to shift positive. I also like the fact that global temperatures are sitting a lot colder right now. UAH came in at -.10C for the month of March, the coldest March globally in over a decade. We're going to have a bit more cold air in the bank than we did following 2010, which was the second warmest year on record according to satellite analysis, behind 1998. With the persistence of this cold air on the Canadian side of the hemisphere, we'll have to see if that becomes a minor factor in Winter 11-12. Furthermore, snow cover has been well above normal for this entire winter, and that is usually a good sign if it is persistent. UAH: Snow cover: Having said all this, it would be almost unprecedented for my area to see three great winters in a row. With 68" here last year and 69.5" this season, how much more can we ask for in a suburban town that averages 36" per season? Winter 08-09 was a gift as well with 45" falling and a huge arctic outbreak around 1/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 I agree Nate that the early sings are decent...but we still have a long way to go. You could get a near avg season while its great in BOS too...not that weird...you had a good season in '09-'10 but BOS was bad...on the flip side, you guys sucked azz in '07-'08 while BOS enjoyed a 52.0" season. But a good season doesn't have to be 15" above avg. It can be near average or slightly above avg with lots of systems and persistent cold with good snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I agree Nate that the early sings are decent...but we still have a long way to go. You could get a near avg season while its great in BOS too...not that weird...you had a good season in '09-'10 but BOS was bad...on the flip side, you guys sucked azz in '07-'08 while BOS enjoyed a 52.0" season. But a good season doesn't have to be 15" above avg. It can be near average or slightly above avg with lots of systems and persistent cold with good snow pack. Glad we're in agreement...the -QBO, -PDO, -NAO decadal cycle, solar minimum, and fairly neutral ENSO conditions argue that Winter 11-12 shouldn't stink. But of course, we've been fooled before, just as many such as myself were with the degree of high-latitude blocking in Winter 10-11. If I learned one lesson this winter, it's to respect the NAO decadal cycle and the solar minimum's power, as well as the fact that a long-range forecast cannot be arrogant and assertive since nature has doubtlessly passed through so many permutations of a variable that humans recognize as important in the short-term, such as La Niña. Sure, our records told us that NYC could not see 60" of snow in a strong La Niña, but did nature's records agree? Probably not! I guess seasons like 71-72 and 08-09 were what you describe in that we had near-average snowfall, perhaps a slightly better winter than normal, while parts of New England did really well. Those were both weak La Niñas, by the way. I find a lot of times the pattern in weak Niñas supports lots of SW flow events, but ones that are cold enough to give a good front-end dump here and add to the seasonal total. January 28, 2009 was a good example of this type of SW flow event, dumped 5.5" here in Dobbs Ferry and 13" at Middlebury...there were a lot of nickel and dime events that winter which allowed NYC's northern suburbs to finish significantly above average. Those winters often feature the strongest gradient between my house (350' elevation, 25 miles north of downtown Manhattan) and Central Park itself....I think Central Park had 27" in 08-09 whereas I got 45", 170% more snowfall here....this past winter with a lot of coastals I got 70" compared to 61" in KNYC, only 115% more snowfall. The stronger Niñas often torch us with mega SW flow events that can't possibly remain snow here; good examples were a variety of events during the 07-08 Winter as well as 2/3 and 1/18 this past winter. I wonder if this theory about ENSO strength versus SW flow event front-end dumps has any scientific backing, or if it's just luck what type of SW flow event you get. Whatever we get, I can't complain here. Dobbs Ferry was so lucky to get in on both the Mid-Atlantic winter of 09-10 and the New England winter of 10-11. 137.5" in two years is a lot for here, including five storms over a foot and seven storms over 8"...We've seen it all from a powerful 26" HECS like the February 2010 Snowicane to a long and deep snow-cover in January 2011 with frequent moderate storms to an ice storm on February 3rd. I keep feeling as if we're due for a dud, but who really knows what winters were like during the Dalton Minimum, the solar era we're paralleling most closely. It's possible the solar minimum has been slowing the polar jet and allowing for a more -NAO/-AO since Winter 08-09, making these conditions not only possible but a reality of the current climate. I don't think that's COMPLETELY the case, but it's difficult to ascertain the effect of such a powerful drop in solar flux given the lack of a similar minimum during the modern/satellite era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I'm hopeful for something decent given the indices stated by Will,Nate, and others. A -QBO and a weak ENSO (whether Nino or Nina) would be favorable, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 freaks There's a high risk for severe weather down south, and you're all discussing an 8 month forecast for how naked Kevin will get. As it is though, I see a very very cold winter in store. Not sure about snow/storminess yet. But some serious negative temperature departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 freaks There's a high risk for severe weather down south, and you're all discussing an 8 month forecast for how naked Kevin will get. As it is though, I see a very very cold winter in store. Not sure about snow/storminess yet. But some serious negative temperature departures. It's what we excel in. I'm all set watching a squall line fall apart when it gets east of the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It's what we excel in. I'm all set watching a squall line fall apart when it gets east of the Berks. NNE jackpot, Will,Pete, KGAY above average, rest average, Cape above average. Neutral NAO, Neutral NINA, more Positive AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 NNE jackpot, Will,Pete, KGAY above average, rest average, Cape above average. Neutral NAO, Neutral NINA, more Positive AO. -QBO might help with trying to persuade the NAO into a negative phase....although I'm not 100% sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 But a good season doesn't have to be 15" above avg. It can be near average or slightly above avg with lots of systems and persistent cold with good snow pack. boring, boring boring. winter is worthless unless there are KU's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 boring, boring boring. winter is worthless unless there are KU's KUs just arent that common...aside from the last two winters. I like winters like 2007-2008 where its a very active pattern even if the storms aren't blockbusters. 1993-1994 was similar style but snowier further south...you could call Feb 8-11 a marginal KU, but it was really two separate waves. But that winter was a parade of 6-12" events...it obviously had great cold too with the snow pack retention. 1996-1997 here had 87.5" and two monster storms (26.3" in Dec '96 and 33.0" in Apr '97) but it was an absolutely brutally awful winter in between those events with hardly any events to track and a lot of warmth. Those events were amazing, but I'm not sure I'd trade it with a winter like '93-'94 which had smaller events but a whole lot more of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 KUs just arent that common...aside from the last two winters. I like winters like 2007-2008 where its a very active pattern even if the storms aren't blockbusters. 1993-1994 was similar style but snowier further south...you could call Feb 8-11 a marginal KU, but it was really two separate waves. But that winter was a parade of 6-12" events...it obviously had great cold too with the snow pack retention. 1996-1997 here had 87.5" and two monster storms (26.3" in Dec '96 and 33.0" in Apr '97) but it was an absolutely brutally awful winter in between those events with hardly any events to track and a lot of warmth. Those events were amazing, but I'm not sure I'd trade it with a winter like '93-'94 which had smaller events but a whole lot more of them. Obviously I loved 2007-8, but we needed this past winter with the blockbusters (to stop my broken record "last 12+ was March 07" lol) Like I said, I'm not sure about storminess yet next winter, but seriously, I think we're going to be in the ice box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Obviously I loved 2007-8, but we needed this past winter with the blockbusters (to stop my broken record "last 12+ was March 07" lol) Like I said, I'm not sure about storminess yet next winter, but seriously, I think we're going to be in the ice box I agree, we were in a bit of a drought for bigger storms. We got 12"+ here in Dec 2008, but it was kind of cheating since we "used" the inverted trough hanging back the next day. We hadn't had any big coastals in a while...we kept getting whiffed in '09-'10 except SE MA in Dec 2009. But aside from that, I do like very active patterns. Now that we are not in a big coastal drought, I like the active pattern more than one big coastal and then nothing for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Just saw this thread. I'm actually fairly optimistic about next winter. Hopefully that's not a kiss of death lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Early indications suggest a 2001-02 esque winter imho. However we have to see how the rest of spring and summer plays out because that's a major factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Just saw this thread. I'm actually fairly optimistic about next winter. Hopefully that's not a kiss of death lol Yep were screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Nice read (scroll to bottom for this year's forecast) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/ He seems to be in favor of a multi-year event. At the very least, I get the vibe from him that even if it is technically a neutral winter, that it would probably be a big Nina hangover in the atmosphere ala 2008-2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Nice overrunning event on the 5244hr CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 wtf is THAT product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 More Volcanic action feeding the frenzy, Puyehue big big winter incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 It'll be very interesting to see if the Pacific reaches El Nino status this winter. Every recorded strong Nino event has been followed by an extended period of neutral or La Nina conditions, and has never been followed by another El Nino by the second winter (as would be the case following the 09-10 event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 More Volcanic action feeding the frenzy, Puyehue big big winter incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 More Volcanic action feeding the frenzy, Puyehue big big winter incoming We are going to have to come up with a new term to say "big winter incoming" this season. It played out beautifully last winter with the massive January in SNE and huge finish to winter in NNE, what'll this winter's mantra be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I would take a few SNE "real" severe events over a few moderate snowstorms any day, just me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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