nzucker Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Oh so we've gone from calling it "perfectly normal" to a "perfectly normal warm spell." I'm perfectly aware of how hot NYC can get this time of year so don't lecture me on "reading up." Just because it's not record breaking doesn't mean it's not a heat wave. I called it a heat wave.. you corrected me and told me it was "perfectly normal" and "definitely not a heatwave." Now you're saying it's a "perfectly normal warm spell." What a joke. 7 days of +10 is a rare event.. I don't care what you call it. It hasn't been +10 here. I had a high of 59.0F Sunday, 62.3F Monday, 78.6F Tuesday, 82.4F Wednesday, 77.9F Thursday....That's about an average week. Two very cool days, two slightly above normal days, one hot day. That's not even close to hot for Memorial Day week. I'm not lecturing you, I'm just stating the facts. Two days of upper 50s/low 60s followed by a few days in the upper 70s to 80F is not hot for Dobbs Ferry in late May. Some people have had warmer readings but I don't count stations in a concrete jungle as valid...the East is a forested environment naturally, so I prefer to look at temps in the leafy suburbs where we're closer to that. Average high in Dobbs is 74-75F now, so today's high was +2F, yesterday's was +7, the day before +4, the day before that -12, and Sunday -15. Doesn't sound like a heat wave to me. Even Central Park hasn't hit 90F, and that's not unusual to have one 90F day in late May; we've seen it in early to mid April some years. BTW NWS defines a heatwave as three straight days of 90F, so it's objectively NOT a heat wave by the technical definition. It's also not a heat wave by the subjective measure of someone who understands climo and has lived in NYC metro for his entire life. So you're just plain wrong. We're only a few degrees above normal for highs, the records for KNYC are in the mid 90s, and we're in the 60s and 70s with a couple days of low 80s. Sure the departures will be positive, but not big heat, no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Just to give you an idea of what real heat in late May means, here are the warmest temperatures for Central Park for each day this week. May 26: 95F in 1880, 94F in 1914, 94F in 1965 May 25: 95F in 1880, 93F in 1991, 90F in 2007 May 24: 93F in 1975, 92F in 1936, 91F in 1964 May 23: 94F in 1964, 92F in 1992, 91F in 1925 Even in the days prior to UHI and global warming, Central Park was able to hit 95F twice in a row in 1880. The 1960s were also cooler globally and had less UHI, and Central Park had two days of low-mid 90s in May 1964. To compare, the highest temperature recorded this week at KNYC is 84F. The high today was only 78F, with JFK only 72F. Temperatures were in the low 60s Sunday and Monday, about 10F below normal for the maximums. The average maximum temperature for May in 87.5F, and we haven't even approached that yet, although we will probably record 1-2 days in that range next week. So far this spring has been unimpressive in terms of big heat, and so has this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 You basically have made up and responded nonsense I never said to try and "win" an argument. I never said the last week was a heat wave. I said the last couple days and the coming week is a heatwave. Which you originally denied. Going on and on about your highs for the last week is completely irrelevant. The fact is the last few days have been +10 using either the 1971-2000 or 1981-2010 baseline. And the rest of the week shapes up around that as well. So first you try changing your words from "perfectly normal" to a "perfectly normal warm spell." Now you change the topic to the past week instead of the past couple days and the coming week. This is just manipulative on your part. I'm perfectly aware what the record highs this time of year are for NYC. You don't need to post them. Just because it's not a record doesn't mean it's not a heatwave. As for the technical definition, there are lots of technical definitions out there of a heat wave. The WMO defines it as ~5 days of +9F temperatures compared to a long-term (IE colder baseline). Which we will meet easily. I didn't even mean heat wave technically, but by several of the available technical definitions taught in meteorology classes, this is officially a heat wave. Given both the technical and subjective support for calling a week of +10F temperatures a heat wave, that's exactly what I'm going to go on doing. Feel free to enlighten us with more of your impressive knowledge of NYC climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 NWS really upped their temps as they often do with these big heat waves: Through the 24th: BOS: -1.8 NYC: -.2 using NWS hi/lo through the 31st: BOS: +.3 NYC: +1.8 The past two days in NYC have been +9 and +10, not "perfectly normal." It was 84 in NYC yesterday, the average is 74, not the low 80s. That's a heat wave. Nearly every day for the rest of the month runs +6-12. Here were your quotes...you implied that a heat wave was starting on the 24th/25th. Heat wave means 90+ for 3 days using NWS standards, which should be used since you're specifically discussing a NWS forecast...it also has a connotation of uncomfortable or unseasonable temperatures. Upper 70s to low 80s is perfectly seasonal for NYC in late May, around Memorial Day. We've seen these temperatures a million times before, so it's not unusual/unseasonable. It's also common to have a few warm/sunny days after a few cool/cloudy days; that's what's called spring. You don't expect to have average temperatures when it's 100% sunny this time of year, you expect to be a little bit above average since it's the cloudy days that are abnormally cool and keep the averages lower during the warm season. So if the average high for NYC is 75 now, the average high on a sunny day is probably 77-78. We've been around that, especially here in Westchester, so wouldn't call it heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I didn't even mean heat wave technically, but by several of the available technical definitions taught in meteorology classes, this is officially a heat wave. Given both the technical and subjective support for calling a week of +10F temperatures a heat wave, that's exactly what I'm going to go on doing. Feel free to enlighten us with more of your impressive knowledge of NYC climo. Maybe you should shut up and stop treating me like sh*t. I'm sick of these BS snide comments and will be reacting. I've been in the upper 70s here most of the week, couple days low 80s. NYC too. LI has been much cooler, NJ a bit warmer. 75-80 in late May is not a heat wave, Andrew. The problem is that you're so young and haven't studied the history much, so you don't really know what heat is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 The problem is that you're so young and haven't studied the history much, so you don't really know what heat is. not even going to respond please enlighten us some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 . Heat wave means 90+ for 3 days using NWS standards, which should be used since you're specifically discussing a NWS forecast.. I have to use a NWS definition of heat wave because I used a NWS forecast? If I had used a weather.com forecast, or accuweather, I could use another definition of heat wave? What a joke. Are you kidding me? What kind of perverse logic is this? I'll use any subjective or technical definition I feel is most appropriate. We will meet the technical definition of heat wave given by the World Meteorological Organization. I feel perfectly comfortable calling this a heat wave on this basis. But please, enlighten us some more with your vast knowledge of NYC climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 not even going to respond please enlighten us some more. It's the same thing Pete said to WeatherMA when WeatherMA said this was a torch. Or like the younger posters in the NYC threads who thought 08-09 was a crappy winter...for those of us remember more years, there's been much more worse. If NYC could hit 95F in May 1880 two consecutive days without UHI and global warming, then how is one day of upper 70s followed by low 80s impressive? Anyway next week is more of a heat wave. I'm sorry dude, you just can't claim 70s and low 80s is a heat wave when it's Memorial Day. Most of the warm readings have been EWR and SW, whereas LI and Westchester haven't been that hot. I'm quite sensitive to the heat as you've heard my complaints about summer here before, and I have to say it's been pretty comfortable this week. Temperatures also stayed much cooler than expected earlier in the week...Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday were all big busts by the NWS on temps here. Tuesday was supposed to be this big hot day and didn't even make 80F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 I have to use a NWS definition of heat wave because I used a NWS forecast? If I had used a weather.com forecast, or accuweather, I could use another definition of heat wave? What a joke. I'll use any subjective or technical definition I feel is most appropriate. Terms like "heat wave"' and "arctic outbreak" shouldn't be overused or they lose their meaning. Do you call two days in the mid 30s in early December an arctic outbreak? Those are -10F departures here, but they're not an arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 It's the same thing Pete said to WeatherMA when WeatherMA said this was a torch. Or like the younger posters in the NYC threads who thought 08-09 was a crappy winter...for those of us remember more years, there's been much more worse. If NYC could hit 95F in May 1880 two consecutive days without UHI and global warming, then how is one day of upper 70s followed by low 80s impressive? Anyway next week is more of a heat wave. I'm sorry dude, you just can't claim 70s and low 80s is a heat wave when it's Memorial Day. Most of the warm readings have been EWR and SW, whereas LI and Westchester haven't been that hot. I'm quite sensitive to the heat as you've heard my complaints about summer here before, and I have to say it's been pretty comfortable this week. Temperatures also stayed much cooler than expected earlier in the week...Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday were all big busts by the NWS on temps here. Tuesday was supposed to be this big hot day and didn't even make 80F. First of all it''s more like low to mid 80s, 81,84,79 being the highs. Second of all, the WMO disagrees and classifies it as a heat wave. Take it up with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 What ever you want to call it..... the monthly departures are going up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 First of all it''s more like low to mid 80s, 81,84,79 being the highs. Second of all, the WMO disagrees and classifies it as a heat wave. Take it up with them. That's 10F off what the NWS considers a heat wave. Also, it hasn't been as hot in the suburbs, which I consider a truer measure of temperatures than urban stations. Finally, if any +9 anomaly is a heat wave, would a week of temperatures in the mid 40s with lows in the upper 30s during January be a "heat wave?" The term is supposed to be used for situations in which unusually high maximum temperatures cause discomfort and danger, so the WMO definition doesn't really make sense in that context. When one thinks of a heat wave, one thinks of 90s and 100s during mid-summers, not nighttime minimums or a mild spell in winter. So I think the NWS definition is much more true to the connotation of the word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 I certainly would not spend multiple pages arguing with somebody who called a week of +10F departures in January a heat wave on the basis of the WMO definition. I might call it a heat wave, if not I'd call it a "torch." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Update through 28 days ... DCA +1.7 NYC +1.0 BOS -0.4 (BOS is estimated from today's reported anomaly of +6, it was -0.6 through 27 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Estimate for BOS above is confirmed, today's anomalies were reported as +6 (DCA), +8 (NYC) and (BOS) +13. That should leave the anomalies after 29th at about 1.9, 1.2 and 0.0 with two warm to hot days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 After 30 days ... DCA +2.2 NYC +1.5 BOS +0.5 all should finish 0.2-0.3 higher with today's anomalies. Quite a recovery for Boston in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 If that happens.... I'd be with in 0.1 of DCA for the month with a chance to get it right on the mark.. 0.3 to 0.2 of NYC.. Boston is shot no matter what ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 NYC was +14 for the morning minimum...+3 and rising for the max at 12pm...This will make it close to +1.9 for the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Final May: DCA: +2.7 NYC: +1.9 BOS: +0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Final May: DCA: +2.7 NYC: +1.9 BOS: +0.7 Looks like congrats to blazess (by 0.1! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 Congratulations to blazess556! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 If i did not crash on Boston....... Either way... up to 4th overall .... XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Goodness I was way off. 66th lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Goodness I was way off. 66th lol. i was 58th, where is my red tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 The rankings on the right are for all five months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 The charts last year were so much easier to understand. These rankings and setup is difficult to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 The charts last year were so much easier to understand. These rankings and setup is difficult to follow What's difficult to understand? How can I present the data better? For example, I can produce rankings for the individual months, and also for the totals. It's just a lot more work for me. I figured the way I'm displaying it now conveys all the info concisely... it shows the monthly ranking by how high "up" on the list you are (in other words, the participants are listed in order of their May scores), and it shows the overall ranking (and score) numerically to the right of the May score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 What's difficult to understand? How can I present the data better? For example, I can produce rankings for the individual months, and also for the totals. It's just a lot more work for me. I figured the way I'm displaying it now conveys all the info concisely... it shows the monthly ranking by how high "up" on the list you are (in other words, the participants are listed in order of their May scores), and it shows the overall ranking (and score) numerically to the right of the May score. The results data is laid out fine! It just takes a little work to adjust to the new presentation, but not enough to be "difficult to follow". Nice job, and thanks for your efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DerekZ Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Congrats to blazess556! Also, Ellinwood seems like he is out to a pretty substantial lead through five months. He is going to have to bust on a month soon or it will be difficult to catch him. Seems like the overall consensus for June was a few degrees above normal for all sites. Finally, thanks to Mallow for ongoing efforts to tabulate and present data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 What's difficult to understand? How can I present the data better? For example, I can produce rankings for the individual months, and also for the totals. It's just a lot more work for me. I figured the way I'm displaying it now conveys all the info concisely... it shows the monthly ranking by how high "up" on the list you are (in other words, the participants are listed in order of their May scores), and it shows the overall ranking (and score) numerically to the right of the May score. I like the way its setup now, but you need to rank folks for each row from 1st to last, rather than having some random distribution. This should be pretty easy to do on excel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.