IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 well, no one was on the board so he didn't have an audience for his flood and disaster posts. Surprised we didn't wake up to a post by him of how he had to rescue a cat from a tree that was displaced when it was scared of the thunder and the 2 second shower. Since most of northern NJ is under either a flood watch or flash flood watch should I post evacuation details now or is it too soon??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Since most of northern NJ is under either a flood watch or flash flood watch should I post evacuation details now or is it too soon??????? I would wait till more people are around for maximum annoyance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I would wait till more people are around for maximum annoyance. Ok, no problem, can you please do me a favor and let me know exactly when to post it because you do realize its my life long goal to achieve maximum annoyance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 nice tounge of instability already firing up....maybe we can get luckier today than we did last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 nice tounge of instability already firing up....maybe we can get luckier today than we did last night No triggers and once again you will be fighting the late day marine layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 No triggers and once again you will be fighting the late day marine layer. yup. Tomorrow will obviously be the day for any chance at thunderstorms. We have the moisture with the high dewpoints, we will have the instability, however no lift. Without that lift, no convection is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Today's minimum is 63 in Central Park...The record is 61...pretty significant because three years had temps max out 90 or better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 Some peaks of sun here...and a temp near 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 yup. Tomorrow will obviously be the day for any chance at thunderstorms. We have the moisture with the high dewpoints, we will have the instability, however no lift. Without that lift, no convection is likely. I got thunderstorms last night. I do realize that the line was rapidly decaying once it crossed over into NJ but it was enough to put my back yard under a severe thunderstorm warning late last night. Once again expectations are low. The 12z NAM has almost a repeat performance compared to last night so we shall see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Some peaks of sun here...and a temp near 79 You going to the beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 You going to the beach? He's going to lay down and bronze by his closed pool at his house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 No triggers and once again you will be fighting the late day marine layer. Just like yesterday, an h5 cold pocket (-12c to -13c) over the Appalachians will be the trigger. This is represented well by the -4 to -5 LI currently over the area and a solid 7c/km mid level lapse rate. SREF guidance tracks this over the Mid Atlantic with moderate instability and decent directional shear. I would like to see more breaks in the low level clouds though before I get excited. However, these may aid in setting up local boundaries east of the Appalachians that could act is low level triggers. All of this can overcome the lack of a surface front today because the cap isn't as strong as the last two days. This threat is highest across VA, MD, C-E PA and W NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Just like yesterday, an h5 cold pocket (-12c to -13c) over the Appalachians will be the trigger. This is represented well by the -4 to -5 LI currently over the area and a solid 7c/km mid level lapse rate. SREF guidance tracks this over the Mid Atlantic with moderate instability and decent directional shear. I would like to see more breaks in the low level clouds though before I get excited. However, these may aid in setting up local boundaries east of the Appalachians that could act is low level triggers. All of this can overcome the lack of a surface front today because the cap isn't as strong as the last two days. This threat is highest across VA, MD, C-E PA and W NJ. Thanks for the info! Hopefulyl something pops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 He's going to lay down and bronze by his closed pool at his house. He may be pretty dark skiing last weekend under full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 By the way, those showers and thunderstorms south of Long Island are part of the remnants of the disturbance the NHC was monitoring a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 By the way, those showers and thunderstorms south of Long Island are part of the remnants of the disturbance the NHC was monitoring a week ago. Are you saying Long Island is about to be hit by a land falling tropical disturbance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 Just like yesterday, an h5 cold pocket (-12c to -13c) over the Appalachians will be the trigger. This is represented well by the -4 to -5 LI currently over the area and a solid 7c/km mid level lapse rate. SREF guidance tracks this over the Mid Atlantic with moderate instability and decent directional shear. I would like to see more breaks in the low level clouds though before I get excited. However, these may aid in setting up local boundaries east of the Appalachians that could act is low level triggers. All of this can overcome the lack of a surface front today because the cap isn't as strong as the last two days. This threat is highest across VA, MD, C-E PA and W NJ. I've been interested in something trying to develop along the seabreeze front later today as well. With the cold pool aloft, we really just need some boundary layer heating. It's looking good now with some breaks in the clouds near the shore. With the southeast component to the wind we should see a seabreeze developing near/around 1-3pm...and it wouldn't at all surprise me to see convection go up along seabreeze fronts this afternoon. We will see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 He may be pretty dark skiing last weekend under full sun. As sick as it sounds, I actually did get tan. It was 60 degrees and sunny and we were skiing for six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 He's going to lay down and bronze by his closed pool at his house. I opened the pool already...I like to get an early start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Can surface frontogenesis act as a triggering point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 A few cells in Del. moving up this way. Very humid out so wouldn't be surprised if we at least saw a downpour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I've been interested in something trying to develop along the seabreeze front later today as well. With the cold pool aloft, we really just need some boundary layer heating. It's looking good now with some breaks in the clouds near the shore. With the southeast component to the wind we should see a seabreeze developing near/around 1-3pm...and it wouldn't at all surprise me to see convection go up along seabreeze fronts this afternoon. We will see.. Agreed. We already see convection firing up in DE and S NJ along the stability gradient in place. The directional shear, moisture and LCL heights are pretty impressive for this area if we can manage to get the MLCAPE. Obviously this is no "AL/MS 45% tornado prob" type of impressive but still... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It looks like SPC wants to take us out of the slight risk for Thursday on their latest product? It's not fully updated yet, but im getting that vibe from this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Those cells down south will be moving into an enviornment which is already low to moderatly unstable. The low and mid-level lapse rates are not particullary strong but shear is increasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It looks like SPC wants to take us out of the slight risk for Thursday on their latest product? It's not fully updated yet, but im getting that vibe from this.. Were in the 15% prob just as we were on the first day 2 outlook. The 30% cat is for the mid-atlantic down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 Agreed. We already see convection firing up in DE and S NJ along the stability gradient in place. The directional shear, moisture and LCL heights are pretty impressive for this area if we can manage to get the MLCAPE. Obviously this is no "AL/MS 45% tornado prob" type of impressive but still... lol Yup...what worries me though is the potential for lots of little storms/convection to develop early and screw things up...given the moisture/etc in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It looks like SPC wants to take us out of the slight risk for Thursday on their latest product? It's not fully updated yet, but im getting that vibe from this.. graphic error most likely lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 graphic error most likely lol Yeah probably still want to keep us in I suppose. it was issued at 12:58pm so I wasn't sure. They do still have us in the 15% as someone mentioned so yeah. Can we manage a wee-bit of sunshine tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Yup...what worries me though is the potential for lots of little storms/convection to develop early and screw things up...given the moisture/etc in place. There is a bit of a warm pocket over E PA and N NJ which hopefully keeps things capped. The latest 17z update has a -7.5c/km mid level lapse rate now. This cold pocket is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Those cells down south will be moving into an enviornment which is already low to moderatly unstable. The low and mid-level lapse rates are not particullary strong but shear is increasing Those cells are absolute trash. Our mid level lapse rates will increase 21z on once this cold pocket moves overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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