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April 25-28 rolling warmth/severe weather/convection thread


earthlight

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probly watch out for next week.. looks like a rain maker from a cutoff low next week or something of that matter. 18z gfs has a lot of rain unfortunately. Strong shortwave, with a strong piece of northern energy dropping down. Hopefully this doesnt happen but as of right now, Noreaster85 is in heaven

thank goodness we get a few days off from him.

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While its overall impact on summer is muted, I really hope we see the NAO stay negative this summer since it was that way the past two summers and we all did quite well the following winter.

Some of the multiyear winter blocking analogs of the past continued to have a degree of blocking even during the third winter

following two good blocking years.

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:Speaking of marine layer, talk about a nasty day on the ocean. Went out striper fishing out of ATL highlands today from Point. Pleasant Marina. Good fishing, but seas were rough. 7-10' swells, and on and off showers. Here's a nasty looking cell coming towards us on the boat by baffin island and looking at NYC in the skyline:

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The downpour around 2PM was short but wicked. Those raindrops looked like quarter sized hail stones.

Also, don't think I ever remember seeing fog so often. Seems like every day, even if it starts off nicely, ends with 30mph winds and fog. Not that it bothers me. Keeps the house cool for sleeping.

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This was a very typical early season setup around here. Imrpessive marine layer over and north and east of the city while areas to the west destablized with some sun.

Month or two from now, everyone would have gotten something out of the line.

How the heck do we ever get severe weather here before June? I remember seeing severe wx in January (in 1996 of all winters lol) and even tornadoes occurring in the middle of winter. Is that because of warm frontal passages? I recall that most of our really severe wx occurs with warm fronts not cold fronts.

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My forecast for the next 3 days in NYC: Nice. Damn, I am a good forecaster!!

That having been said, rumbles of thunder now from that cell coming up from the south.

Thats the kind of weather I want for the rest of spring-- not this murky crap.

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Forget the winter, I want some severe storms damn it!

I agree it is now severe weather season but I do hope the tornadoes light up a bit in the south but in a month or two I like our area to get in the fun. I don't want the blocking pattern to last very long. Of course the GFS tends to have a long range bias when it comes to blocking and -NAO.

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I've been out in Farmingville, Long Island in Nassau County for work since Tuesday. This is the first time I've seen the sun all week arrowheadsmiley.png. We were literally stuck in windswept fog for 72+ hours and temps never cracked 60 or 61. I've never seen anything like it. We actually had a 5 minute thunderstorm yesterday which was surprising considering the strength of the marine layer.

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Yesterday was all over the place, the fog burned off and revealed a shelf cloud in the distance, had 3 different episodes of thunder + lightning (including 2 episodes in the returning 0 visibility fog). Then the sun came out in the afternoon.

I see the grass is wet so I assume we had rain.

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Yesterday was all over the place, the fog burned off and revealed a shelf cloud in the distance, had 3 different episodes of thunder + lightning (including 2 episodes in the returning 0 visibility fog). Then the sun came out in the afternoon.

I see the grass is wet so I assume we had rain.

interesting temp graph, dont see that everyday

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYHOWAR4

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The way that fog was being swept inland yesterday was pretty cool. But I'd rather have a day like today. This is what I want spring to be like. No 80's, no high humidity, no overcast skies, no chance of rain at practically any moment.

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How the heck do we ever get severe weather here before June? I remember seeing severe wx in January (in 1996 of all winters lol) and even tornadoes occurring in the middle of winter. Is that because of warm frontal passages? I recall that most of our really severe wx occurs with warm fronts not cold fronts.

It would still be because of cold fronts, which as opposed to warm fronts, generate the necessary amounts of rapid and intense atmospheric lifting resulting from the instability they produce, distinguishable from the much more gradual lifting process involved with warm fronts.

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