IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Narrow line of surface CAPE is developing out ahead of the front. Look how strong that shear is......... Were going to be in great shape.... I think one of the main reasons they didn't go with a tornado watch was due to low instability. Looks like we stand a chance at getting moderatly unstable. Taking a look at visible satalite, you can definitly see the cloud deck breaking up some. The front is moving so slowly we should have sufficiant time for heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 The SREF is enthused around 18z..makes sense given the frontal timing and the storm motion right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Narrow line of surface CAPE is developing out ahead of the front. Look how strong that shear is......... Were going to be in great shape.... Be careful with that...the low instability and high shear events more often than not result in weak elevated convection without the ability to mature due to the mid and upper level shear. Hopefully we can build thermodynamic support over the next few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 STW is out, we need some sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 New watch coming for mostly everybody 530 WWUS30 KWNS 281341 SAW3 SPC AWW 281341 WW 253 SEVERE TSTM CT DE MA MD NJ NY PA VT CW 281345Z - 282000Z AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 45N GFL/GLENS FALLS NY/ - 20SE DOV/DOVER DE/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /43S PLB - 22WSW SIE/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040. LAT...LON 43977251 38917418 38917623 43977473 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Some breaks are showing up to the south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 945 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CONNECTICUT MUCH OF DELAWARE WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS EASTERN MARYLAND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY EASTERN NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHERN VERMONT COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL 400 PM EDT. WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF GLENS FALLS NEW YORK TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOVER DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 249...WW 250...WW 251...WW 252... DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER EASTERN NY/PA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm watch is now up for NYC and the area. Only Suffolk is not included yet. Watch is until 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Be careful with that...the low instability and high shear events more often than not result in weak elevated convection without the ability to mature due to the mid and upper level shear. Hopefully we can build thermodynamic support over the next few hrs. honestly I'm not sure if I want good instability with such strong shear profiles. We could get discrete supercell development out ahead of the main line easily if this were to occur. This system has already brought so much pain and destruction I really would rather not see this achieve its full potential in ths area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 watch is prudent given strong dynamics in play but running short on time to really destabilize. Need sun and fast otherwise thunder heavy down pours and a few gusts is all we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 This is a game changing shot if we can get these breaks in the clouds to advect northeast. We've got some time. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&isingle=multiple&itype=vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 watch is prudent given strong dynamics in play but running short on time to really destabilize. Need sun and fast otherwise thunder heavy down pours and a few gusts is all we get. That front is moving very slowly. There is a reason why there are numerous FFW out right now, convection is training over the same areas. I would be more worried about weaker development out ahead of the main line screwing things up. With the number of tornado warnings out, and the strong shear, I think a torndao watch would have been justified despite the current low instability. Would not be suprised if they upgraded later on if we can get some sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 With the number of tornado warnings out, and the strong shear, I think a torndao watch would have been justified despite the current low instability. We would need a good amount of sun and a good degree of low level turning ahead of the front. Things are way too parallel to the mean flow right now in this area to issue a tornado watch. Do agree about the slow movement of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 The main line south of the blob over NE PA is really starting to look healthy now. I think were in really good position here with a SW flow. Maybe not for my back yard, but since I'm in Ramsey I have an extra 15-20 miles on my side. Skies have really brightened here over the past twenty minutes. Sun looks like it may want to make an appearance soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Sun's out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jggearhead Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 what time would storms move into citty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 That line is utterly crawling. There is a reason why the watch is in affect until 4pm and the Thunderstorms are less than 100 miles west. This is going to be one beast of a squall line when it arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 That line is utterly crawling. There is a reason why the watch is in affect until 4pm and the Thunderstorms are less than 100 miles west. This is going to be one beast of a squall line when it arrives. it's accelerating slightly as bowing segments develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 That one cell S/W of Allentown is really starting to bow. Currently has a comma head structure developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Sun has broken out in full order here in Ramsey, let the games begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Cell south of Allentown has a coupling now on radar. Albeit not a very strong one but its there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Some NASTY cells ripping through NE Virginia right now. Extremely humid out right now in midtown with the sun trying to pop out, 66 F right now but I wonder if we can get into the low 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Have some breaks in the clouds here along with some peaks of sun, temp 75, dew point 66, humidity 74%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 PWV are 1.7" very heavy rain possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Here we go, its that cell that just passed Allentown TORNADO WARNING NJC019-041-PAC017-095-281530- /O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0001.110428T1458Z-110428T1530Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1058 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHWESTERN HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... NORTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 1130 AM EDT * AT 1057 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FERNDALE... OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF EASTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... HAMPTON...GLEN GARDNER...HIGH BRIDGE AND WASHINGTON BY 1105 AM EDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Surreal day, and past couple days in Nassau County. Waves of fog blowing around like sheets of snow...and it is very windy out there. Also, i dont see why people want severe weather, unlike blizzards, which rarely kill people, severe weather KILLS and DESTROYS..i for one am glad i live on long island which is protected by our best friend, the atlantic ocean, from severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Temp headin up now in midtown, 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Surreal day, and past couple days in Nassau County. Waves of fog blowing around like sheets of snow...and it is very windy out there. Also, i dont see why people want severe weather, unlike blizzards, which rarely kill people, severe weather KILLS and DESTROYS..i for one am glad i live on long island which is protected by our best friend, the atlantic ocean, from severe weather. I usually run along the east river in the city, and looking out to the east towards Brooklyn there have been these persistent dark clouds in the distance. I imagine that is that marine layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Not often you see "fog and windy" with gusts to 43mph right now at JFK. Crazy stuff today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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