IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 The watch was likely a good idea but the storms themselves are not going to happen given the current thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The watch runs till 4am. Clearly something might be getting overlooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I love comments like these, maybe they should fire the guys at SPC with advanced degrees and hire you and TheTrials absolutely not, they do the best job anyone can do and i know a fraction of what they know. But i didnt understand the watch for eastern PA and NJ, and its busting but who cares, there are towns being destroyed by tornadoes down south, this is the least of my concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 absolutely not, they do the best job anyone can do and i know a fraction of what they know. But i didnt understand the watch for eastern PA and NJ, and its busting but who cares, there are towns being destroyed by tornadoes down south, this is the least of my concern I know got a friend down in bama right now getting it bad. Power is out, lightning is bad and tornado sirens are going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Not to knock the SPC, but just from my obervations, the best T-storms I've experienced in CNJ occurred with no watch in place. Usually our best events are total surprises. yeah, buddies in the Ohio Valley say this alot..They get the most beast storms when there is no watch/risk. It's not the spc, its just the craziness of meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 absolutely not, they do the best job anyone can do and i know a fraction of what they know. But i didnt understand the watch for eastern PA and NJ, and its busting but who cares, there are towns being destroyed by tornadoes down south, this is the least of my concern This.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Seems windier here than expected already, hearing some pretty good gusts right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 This.. yeah dude, this is the tuscaloosa tornado..From 4:14 on it sounds like 5 freight trains passing right by you. An all around amazing video and these guys have some balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Yeah, after seeing all the destruction that goes on with severe weather, in no way, shape or form do I want that here. Our severe weather season starts in June and continues through the first part of Fall, and I'd rather see scorching heat like last summer instead. Last year's tornado did a lot of damage (for NYC standards) around here. I don't need or want that again. Though I just absolutely love huge boomers and vivid lightning. And torrential rainfall lol. I can do without the wind though. I'd take a summer like 2004, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Winds have been shifting around quite a bit. Temps were in the 70s with a southerly wind, then they turned easterly and temps dropped to 63, now its back up to 70 and the breeze is gone. As far as watches/warnings, one of my favorite storms was out in Morris County at the end of the April 2002 heatwave. As I recall there was only a 20-30% chance of storms that day but a cell popped up in Hunterdon county and another in Sussex and basically the 2 merged into one severe cell moving along route 10. I never saw the sky so black. It didn't last that long but there was a swath of wind damage through to the Montclair area before they moved into NYC. By that point they lost there severity but still gave some heavy rain and thunder and lightning. With temps in the mid 90s some 30 degrees above normal and a potent cold front it made sense that we'd get a decent amount of activity but no watches or anything were up for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 New watch over Central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Jesus PA/Upstate NY have been getting hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 It's interesting how TEB and NYC are maintaining SE winds while Newark and points south are staying due south. THere was nearly a 10 degree temp drop on my car therm from just south of EWR tothe Secaucus station area on the turnpike. Cool little sea breeze feature tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT THU APR 28 2011 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ..SYNOPSIS AS A PARENT UPPER LOW ELONGATES OVER THE MIDWEST-CNTRL GREAT LAKES TODAY...STRONG IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VLY WILL EJECT NE TO NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES AS A DEEP SFC CYCLONE TRAVELS FROM IND TO QUEBEC. TRAILING FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. ..ATLANTIC SEABOARD STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DECREASE WITH NRN EXTENT...MLCAPES WILL STILL LIKELY REACH 1000 J/KG GIVEN INFLUX OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. FARTHER S...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A COMPARATIVELY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM PARTS OF SERN PA SWD INTO NRN FL. DEEP-LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH TIME AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE EJECTS ENE AND WITH INCREASING ASCENT...ACTIVITY FROM THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC NWD INTO NY SHOULD BECOME MORE QUASI-LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES. DMGG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MARINE LAYER FLOWING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL ATLANTIC. FARTHER S...CORE OF THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NWD EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT AMPLE DEEP/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL MID-ATLANTIC STATES SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. HERE...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND DMGG WINDS WILL EXIST. THESE THREATS WILL MOVE BEYOND THE COAST BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TAIL-END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD. BUT...REMNANT PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE...IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CAPE DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. DMGG WINDS/HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR RISKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 10% Tornado into Western NJ and E PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 By the way, the severe thunderstorm watch was canceled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 10% Tornado into Western NJ and E PA first time I have ever seen 10%, atleast in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 idk. I'm looking at this line over PA and it is getting better with each scan. Thinking we may see a squall line later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Looks like SPC is going to reissue the watch in the areas that had it fail earlier (E PA, W NJ) in a bit. The QLCS over central PA is progged to blast E and into said regions in a few hours. Active morning coming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 New svr tstm watch issued till 10am for areas W of NYC. Marine layer may hold coastal plain in check, but we'll see. If this QLCS holds together, SPC may keep watch going further E. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0249.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 line is waning. May regenerate later tho. It's a battle with the marine layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Looks like most of what the area sees today will be elevated convection and thus won't get to severe. Even western areas may not see enough surface destabalization to get severe weather. It looks like it is all out of here before 18z. If we had sunshine and the front came in later, would have been a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Much of Eastern NY, Eastern PA. and Western NJ under warnings now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 is it me or does that front seem to be going more to the north than east across NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 is it me or does that front seem to be going more to the north than east across NJ Did you call the day? Im not waiting for rain. Where out now cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 starting to get discrete development out ahead of the line. I think were in a good position to get slammed. I think the southern/eastern edge of the rain shield is where you want to be for severe chances. A few of those cells have tornado warnings on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Some storms moving into the area. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ANZ355&warncounty=marine&firewxzone=&local_place1=23NM+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpickett Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Have moved through lower Manhattan with 3 minute downpour and thunder. Heading towards, LGA and JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I hear the thunder and see nothing but fog. Edit: Now it's getting darker but still super foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Some thunder at work in Bayside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Pouring right now with some thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.