earthlight Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 The best idea is likely to start with today's discussion..and in that case we have a later in the day/warm front type convective setup. The highest probabilities for convection on most short range guidance are after 2100z as the front lifts north and a weak shortwave traverses northeast through the great lakes. The convection is likely to be elevated above the boundary layer--the SREF has an area of 1000+j/kg of MUCAPE over the entire area at 06z Tuesday. The severe threat with this convection seems rather low, but is definitely non-zero..and is highest over Eastern PA and far Western NJ, away from the easterly marine flow, where convection may become slightly more boundary layer rooted. Regarding temperatures and conditions throughout the day...the stationary front (eventually to become a warm front backing north again later today) is harboring low clouds and west to east training moisture...but will lift north over the next few hours. Watching this occur should be interesting as the temperature gradient develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 The SPC Day 3 outlook... ALONG WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FARTHER NNEWD INTO PA/NY -- INCLUDING THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO EXTEND E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AFTERNOON SEVERE CONVECTION...SEVERE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE FRONT CRESTS THE APPALACHIANS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Really don't see any triggers today. Once again we have a far less than ideal setup for anything severe and even strong. MUCAPE is good but that alone can't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Really don't see any triggers today. Once again we have a far less than ideal setup for anything severe and even strong. MUCAPE is good but that alone can't cut it. Agreed...my above post delineates Eastern PA and Western NJ as the areas most likely to experience thunderstorms...they could be strong to severe. I think we will get convection into NE NJ..but it's going to be hard, as I said above, to get it to the city and east with the onshore flow that develops this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I think SPC's slight risk zone clearly agrees with the idea of this being a non-event for the eastern burbs and into Long Island. It's also a day 3 outlook, plenty of time to fine tune the details. The main triggers should be west of us into PA where convection will initiate and as the storms move eastward they should be able to sustain themselves thanks to decent instabilty over NJ until they reach the stable marine layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 HPN Forecast Sounding Wednesday evening, followed by Thursday morning.... definitely some severe weather parameters in our favor... directional and speed shear is kinda lacking on Wednesday so not sure if the storms will die out rather quickly. By later Thursday morning.. LLJ really gets cranking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 NAM is on the cooler side, as usual.. it only has us getting to about 70 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 warm front is pushing north still..it's into Middlesex county now. on the doorstep for ne nj and not far away from the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 torch is on tomorrow per the 12z NAM. EWR gets past 82 degrees..the city is warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 torch is on tomorrow per the 12z NAM. EWR gets past 82 degrees..the city is warm too. It's also nearly completely dry from the city on eastward for the next four days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 It's also nearly completely dry from the city on eastward for the next four days. that should help with the massive flooding in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 that should help with the massive flooding in NJ massive flooding in NJ? Hardly....how about the Ohio river valley though. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 massive flooding in NJ? Hardly....how about the Ohio river valley though. Incredible. You don't even know when you're being made fun of. It's uncomfortable for all involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 You don't even know when you're being made fun of. It's uncomfortable for all involved. I do, I just choose to ignore it, its more fun for me to make a serious reply when someone makes a sarcastic remark. Maybe we can get a major hurricane to make landfall in NYC this year and you guys can see first hand what flooding really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 EWR: 63 TTN: 72 ACY: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 We've got the sun out in NEPA...NYC folks, it's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 JFK is the warmest out of the metro area http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=11414 Almost 65 in southern queens now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 We've got the sun out in NEPA...NYC folks, it's coming Yeah it's literally right there..in Somerset-Middlesex Co now http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/1km.php?loop=1&type=vis®ion=LongIsland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 JFK is the warmest out of the metro area http://www.wundergro...ast?query=11414 Almost 65 in southern queens now 65 right now in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 clearing out now and skies brightening quickly should see a nice spike in temps over the next few hours. EWR: 64 TTN: 75 ACY: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 Sun is poking through here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 clearing out now and skies brightening quickly should see a nice spike in temps over the next few hours. EWR: 64 TTN: 75 ACY: 81 this morning tied the record for the highest minimum for the date...Does this mean a 90+ day is around the corner?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 The temp at the midtown PWS is 66.6 F. ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 We're probably about a half hour away from full sun here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Keep moving north for another 50 miles, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Up to 70 degrees out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 a bit of sun here. 64 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 torch is on tomorrow per the 12z NAM. EWR gets past 82 degrees..the city is warm too. Is Storm Vista's 12Z NAM Surface graphics seriously screwed up?? How annoying.. It's showing 2M temps no better than about 70 tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Temp is steadily rising here. 68 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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