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Monday April 25th


janetjanet998

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Amazing that the big cell south of Dallas hasn't produced more tornadoes than it has given the environment it's in. Seems to be underperforming so far.

Back-veer-back wind profile (with height) + veering winds (with time, to SSW, at the sfc) indicate that the environment is not as good as the parameters would make it to be. Seems that there are still some small deficiencies to the shear profiles (especially in the upper lvls) further east as well, which combined with widespread warm sector contamination, is preventing a major outbreak explosion thus far.

Interesting, however, that the SPC does not extend the SLGT further south with the 20Z outlook despite the southernmost tornado watch.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 206

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

450 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS

PARTS OF ILLINOIS

SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA

PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

LARGE PART OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 450 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

NUMEROUS TORNADOES

INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS

WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL

ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CARBONDALE

ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 201...WW 202...WW

203...WW 204...WW 205...

DISCUSSION...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THIS EVENING NEWD TOWARD LOWER

OH VALLEY...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND RAPID NWD DESTABILIZATION WILL

TAKE PLACE NWD THRU THE WATCH. THIS SUPPORTS CURRENT SUPERCELLS NOW

IN AR TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH WITH POTENTIAL FOR

STRONG TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

...HALES

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Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

High (70%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (60%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (60%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (40%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

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We are extremely concerned here about a flash flood tonight. Asking people to finish their activities and can't home

I see this becoming a big problem in west KY tonight. Life threatening flash flood event.

Watching KAIT8 in AR, it's extremely bad in their area, I hope it isn't a bad omen for what's coming your way tonight.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR

541 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

NORTH CENTRAL GARLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 534 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

A TORNADO WITH A HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. THIS TORNADO WAS

LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF JESSIEVILLE...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF

LAKE OUACHITA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...

PERRYVILLE... WILLIAMS JUNCTION... PERRY...

LONG MTN... LITTLE ITALY... LAKE WINONA...

LAKE SYLVIA... JESSIEVILLE... HOUSTON...

HARRIS BRAKE... WYE MTN... WYE...

THORNBURG... REFORM... HAMILTON...

CHERRY HILL... BIGELOW... ANTIOCH...

TO REPEAT...THIS STORM HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE WEST OF ROYAL

IN GARLAND COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS

OF 70 MPH..

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I think the threat for supercell tornadoes is diminishing now; the line is catching up quickly (except maybe in TX). Certainly looks like the rain factor will the the most significant from this system.

There are two intense (and intensifying) TVSs in AR right now...I think it's too early to call this.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR

619 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

ARC051-059-097-105-125-149-252330-

/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0088.000000T0000Z-110425T2330Z/

HOT SPRING AR-MONTGOMERY AR-GARLAND AR-SALINE AR-PERRY AR-YELL AR-

619 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL YELL...

SOUTHWESTERN PERRY...NORTHWESTERN SALINE...GARLAND...EAST CENTRAL

MONTGOMERY AND WEST CENTRAL HOT SPRING COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA...

AT 616 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A TORNADO. THIS POTENTIALLY

DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE CORONADO...OR 11 MILES

NORTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...

PINEY... ROCKWELL... LAKE OUACHITA...

LAKE HAMILTON... HOT SPRINGS... NIMROD LAKE...

MOUNTAIN PINE... MEYERS... LOFTON...

LENA LNDG REC AREA... LAKE WINONA... LAKE OUACHITA SP...

LAKE LAGO... LAKE CORONADO... LAKE BALBOA...

JESSIEVILLE... HOT SPGS VILLAGE...

HOT SPRINGS NATL PARK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A VIOLENT TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. THIS IS AN

EXCEPTIONALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING A LIFE

THREATENING...CONFIRMED TORNADO CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT DESTRUCTION!

TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

&&

LAT...LON 3497 9323 3471 9263 3428 9324 3429 9325

3428 9327 3442 9346

TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 230DEG 39KT 3466 9292

$$

62

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Tornado Warning now for Little Rock. Storm to the southwest doesn't look too impressive (rotation-wise), but definitely something to watch (considering the events of the last 10 days).The cell to the northwest of Little Rock looks very impressive, however.

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