Superstorm93 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Amazing that the big cell south of Dallas hasn't produced more tornadoes than it has given the environment it's in. Seems to be underperforming so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Amazing that the big cell south of Dallas hasn't produced more tornadoes than it has given the environment it's in. Seems to be underperforming so far. Back-veer-back wind profile (with height) + veering winds (with time, to SSW, at the sfc) indicate that the environment is not as good as the parameters would make it to be. Seems that there are still some small deficiencies to the shear profiles (especially in the upper lvls) further east as well, which combined with widespread warm sector contamination, is preventing a major outbreak explosion thus far. Interesting, however, that the SPC does not extend the SLGT further south with the 20Z outlook despite the southernmost tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Well my forecasted county of McCurtain in Oklahoma has a tornado report for the day. Not bad. Hope all are safe though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 450 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS PARTS OF ILLINOIS SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LARGE PART OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WESTERN TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 450 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... NUMEROUS TORNADOES INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF OXFORD MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF CARBONDALE ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 201...WW 202...WW 203...WW 204...WW 205... DISCUSSION...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THIS EVENING NEWD TOWARD LOWER OH VALLEY...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND RAPID NWD DESTABILIZATION WILL TAKE PLACE NWD THRU THE WATCH. THIS SUPPORTS CURRENT SUPERCELLS NOW IN AR TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035. ...HALES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Surprised that the new watch is a PDS. The cells in AR aren't really doing too well as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (90%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (70%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (70%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (60%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (60%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (40%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Surprised that the new watch is a PDS. The cells in AR aren't really doing too well as of now. Very surprised, also since the HRRR forecasts storm mode to be linear by the time the storms reach there. Then again, QLCS tornadoes seem to be the rage this year. They'll probably end up doing better than the supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Very surprised, also since the HRRR forecasts storm mode to be linear by the time the storms reach there. Then again, QLCS tornadoes seem to be the rage this year. They'll probably end up doing better than the supercells. Its a pretty big mess in AR right now. Not sure how these watches will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 We are extremely concerned here about a flash flood tonight. Asking people to finish their activities and can't home I see this becoming a big problem in west KY tonight. Life threatening flash flood event. Watching KAIT8 in AR, it's extremely bad in their area, I hope it isn't a bad omen for what's coming your way tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Big time couplet in Garland County, AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Big time couplet in Garland County, AR. New scan looks even worse. Wouldn't be surprised to see at least a funnel report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 110 kt GTG rotation on that cell in Garland County. I'd say that's about EF-3 strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 NNW of Hot Springs, AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psualum95 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 541 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... NORTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... NORTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... NORTH CENTRAL GARLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 534 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A TORNADO WITH A HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF JESSIEVILLE...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE OUACHITA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE... PERRYVILLE... WILLIAMS JUNCTION... PERRY... LONG MTN... LITTLE ITALY... LAKE WINONA... LAKE SYLVIA... JESSIEVILLE... HOUSTON... HARRIS BRAKE... WYE MTN... WYE... THORNBURG... REFORM... HAMILTON... CHERRY HILL... BIGELOW... ANTIOCH... TO REPEAT...THIS STORM HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE WEST OF ROYAL IN GARLAND COUNTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I think the threat for supercell tornadoes is diminishing now; the line is catching up quickly (except maybe in TX). Certainly looks like the rain factor will the the most significant from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I think the threat for supercell tornadoes is diminishing now; the line is catching up quickly (except maybe in TX). Certainly looks like the rain factor will the the most significant from this system. There are two intense (and intensifying) TVSs in AR right now...I think it's too early to call this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 619 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011 ARC051-059-097-105-125-149-252330- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0088.000000T0000Z-110425T2330Z/ HOT SPRING AR-MONTGOMERY AR-GARLAND AR-SALINE AR-PERRY AR-YELL AR- 619 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL YELL... SOUTHWESTERN PERRY...NORTHWESTERN SALINE...GARLAND...EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND WEST CENTRAL HOT SPRING COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT... ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR THE WARNED AREA... AT 616 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A TORNADO. THIS POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE CORONADO...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE... PINEY... ROCKWELL... LAKE OUACHITA... LAKE HAMILTON... HOT SPRINGS... NIMROD LAKE... MOUNTAIN PINE... MEYERS... LOFTON... LENA LNDG REC AREA... LAKE WINONA... LAKE OUACHITA SP... LAKE LAGO... LAKE CORONADO... LAKE BALBOA... JESSIEVILLE... HOT SPGS VILLAGE... HOT SPRINGS NATL PARK... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A VIOLENT TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING A LIFE THREATENING...CONFIRMED TORNADO CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT DESTRUCTION! TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! && LAT...LON 3497 9323 3471 9263 3428 9324 3429 9325 3428 9327 3442 9346 TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 230DEG 39KT 3466 9292 $$ 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 There are two intense (and intensifying) TVSs in AR right now...I think it's too early to call this. Wow, have a look at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Those around Paron, AR should take cover immediately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electronicmaji Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Where is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 0507 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW SUNSHINE 34.49N 93.26W 04/25/2011 GARLAND AR LAW ENFORCEMENT *** 2 INJ *** HOUSES WERE DAMAGED...WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED INSIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 There are two intense (and intensifying) TVSs in AR right now...I think it's too early to call this. Okay, let's give an hour... then my post will be in effect Honestly everything looked very linear when I made that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSoxFan Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Tornado Warning now for Little Rock. Storm to the southwest doesn't look too impressive (rotation-wise), but definitely something to watch (considering the events of the last 10 days).The cell to the northwest of Little Rock looks very impressive, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Everything is pretty much linear. Just a few embedded supercells. Except for the violent TVS W of Little Rock...and the mass of supercells in TX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Probable debris ball W of Little Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Purple TVS over Maumelle AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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