The thread of fantastically stupid skeptic climate predictions

[skierinvermont]

This thread is only for those major predictions that are so stupid they had no chance of ever being correct and reveal a fundamental failure to understand basic climate and weather science:

1) The 79 people who guessed UAH/RSS would come in below .32 (old baseline) and the 47 people who guessed below .13 in 2010 (Actual: .50)

You receive a...

FAIL

2) The 77 people who guessed GISS/HadCRUT would come in below .51, and the 42 people who guessed below .38 in 2010. (Actual: .55)

You receive a..

FAIL

3) Steven Goddard's prediction at WUWT of a minimum of 5.5 million sq km for arctic sea ice extent in 2010. (Actual: 4.8)

You receive a..

FAIL

4)

Each Year since 2007 has had more ice area than the other during the Peak Ice Season.......... Both 2009 and 2010 have reached Above Normal Ice Extent at some point... This winter will ne the 4th consecutive year with a higher ice extent and area.....all this since the PDO went cold in 2007

You receive a..

FAIL

5)

Just watch what happens to Arctic temperatures in the next year as the strong La Niña takes hold, the solar minimum starts to have more of an effect, and a neutral/slightly +NAO makes the N Atlantic stormy and eliminates some of those warm SSTs near Greenland. This will be the biggest change in global climate since the Pinatubo eruption in the early 90s.

Arctic temperatures remain at near record levels. ENSO state only weakly affects arctic temperatures.

You receive a..

FAIL

6)

We're starting the long term recovery now probably, this winter should see the arctic ice maintain above normal extent/area etc for a month or two unless the wind becomes unfavorable and flushes/compacts the ice. We probably won't see the ice, in the long run, get back to average for another 7-10 years.

Arctic sea ice this winter was at record low levels and remains at extremely low levels relative to average.

You receive a..

FAIL

7) Zucker's guesses of -.2 and (revised) guess of -.1C for UAH in 2011. JFMA temps are running .15C warmer than 2008 which finished at -.04C.

You receive a preemptive

FAIL

[skierinvermont]

7 FAILS and counting should be 8 after this summer's minimum and we can probably add Bethesda's and Clifford's summer ice minimum guess to the list.

[nzucker]

7 FAILS and counting should be 8 after this summer's minimum and we can probably add Bethesda's and Clifford's summer ice minimum guess to the list.

Well, I don't think you can make preemptive fails.

I also think my prediction for global temps was predicated on a much stronger Niña than what happened...I would revise now with the peak at -1.4C..

nice

I love pissing you off.. your true colors come through.

Bethesda, you need to control your language on here. No one wants to read words like "faggot" etc in a climate forum. Keep it PG so we can actually have an adult discussion.

[nzucker]

Starting a Thread Like this is worthy of PG language? heh

What does starting an entire Thread making BS claims assulting people do?

Yeah, thats worthy of PG language alright...

I agree that the thread is not in the best spirit.

However, Bethesda, you need to speak in a mature way. No one wants to read a forum full of interactions with curses, insults, and tirades. Also, words like "f*ckass" and "faggot" are pretty offensive...I don't use that language in my daily life, and it certainly shouldn't be seen in a weather forum. There are ways to make a strong point in a debate without resorting to this derogatory words; in fact, you only look weaker when you start cursing since it shows you've lost your cool.

[BethesdaWX]

Ok, For Skier's Fails

I can name 6 right off the Bat.

1) Claiming we'd bottomed out in JAN..... FAIL

2) Cannot even read the NSIDC Map correctly... FAIL

3) Claiming that All feedbacks are Detectable... FAIL

4) Claiming that reflected Visible light can be measured by Satellites measuring LW radiation... FAIL

5) Claiming that If we don't know of a Mechanism, then it automatically doesn't exist... FAIL

6) Hypocritical In #5.. we have no Mechanism for the Assumption that Warming decreases GCC... FAIL

I could go on and On. How many more do you want?

How is This Productive? This is the whole issue with Warmists.

[skierinvermont]

I agree that the thread is not in the best spirit.

Well don't take it too seriously. I do think that we should learn from mistakes and this thread is an inflammatory attempt to draw attention to the mistakes of skeptics. The worst predictions are those with reasoning which is not remotely based in a sound methodology or understanding.

[skierinvermont]

Ok, For Skier's Fails

I can name 6 right off the Bat.

1) Claiming we'd bottomed out in JAN..... FAIL

2) Cannot even read the NSIDC Map correctly... FAIL

3) Claiming that All feedbacks are Detectable... FAIL

4) Claiming that reflected Visible light can be measured by Satellites measuring LW radiation... FAIL

5) Claiming that If we don't know of a Mechanism, then it automatically doesn't exist... FAIL

6) Hypocritical In #5.. we have no Mechanism for the Assumption that Warming decreases GCC... FAIL

I could go on and On. How many more do you want?

How is This Productive.

I am the first to point out that we didn't bottom in Feb (I said Feb not Jan), although that prediction was only slightly off. The large majority of the decline was over by Feb and the trend since January is only very slightly negative.

And I never said 2-6.

[BethesdaWX]

I am the first to point out that we didn't bottom in Feb (I said Feb not Jan), although that prediction was only slightly off.

And I never said 2-6.

Yes you did, should I quote you?

This is going to end badly for you, Trust me! I'd admit it now if I were you.....

[BethesdaWX]

#2 Fail, I'll get to #3 next.

"The biggest spike always occurs around April???? NO IT DOESNT

Shows a lack of understanding of what this map Truly Means... the Deviatition from the Mean, regardles of the time of year.

Yes.. and the peak anomaly almost always occurs sometime around April (you can see the biggest spike in the anomaly all of the past 4 years has been around April).

So your prediction has already busted.

An Anomaly References the Deviation from Average, not amount of Ice

[k***]

i reported bethesda wx and encourage others to do the same.

[skierinvermont]

#2 Fail, I'll get to #3 next.

"The biggest spike always occurs around April???? NO IT DOESNT

Shows a lack of understanding of what this map Truly Means... the Deviatition from the Mean, regardles of the time of year.

An Anomaly References the Deviation from Average, not amount of Ice

I said the biggest spike in the anomaly.

In other words, the most positive (least negative) anomalies are observed around April because that is when the least long-term decline has occurred. I understand that the graph I posted of was of anomalies, and that is why I said "anomalies."

[BethesdaWX]

I said the biggest spike IN THE ANOMALY.

In other words, the most positive (least negative) anomalies are observed around April because that is when the least long-term decline has occurred.

All you are proving is your inability to read.

An anomaly is the deviation from AVG, not the Amount of Ice. The biggest devation from AVG (the anomaly) can occur anytime.

[LocoAko]

i reported bethesda wx and encourage others to do the same.

I did too. Besides how homophobic his comments were and how stupid they make him look in general, that sort of discourse doesn't belong in the Science side of this forum.

[k***]

Postig a Thread Like this is, no offense, an {{expletive}} thing to do, no offense

you're not exactly selling your position very well

[skierinvermont]

I also think my prediction for global temps was predicated on a much stronger Niña than what happened...I would revise now with the peak at -1.4C..

Well overestimating the Nina was just part of the error. It seems like you got a little wrapped up in hoping for an extreme event and/or global cooling which is why you were still insisting on a record strong Nina even into mid January when it was already statistically impossible without dropping to -3 in Feb. Also the second guess was made in January after it was apparent it was only going to peak at at most -1.6.

[BethesdaWX]

you're not exactly selling your position very well

What is my "position"?

On the science? Or on this thread?

[baroclinic_instability]

Reminders needed apparently.

Weatherside rules

No politics/religious discussion

No foul language

No personal attacks/OT arguing

Try to stay on topic

Attack the idea, not the poster

Spell out your forecast/thinking/opposing viewpoint clearly

If you post a map, explain it

Keep banter to a minimum during Storm Mode* (see below)

[skierinvermont]

An anomaly is the deviation from AVG, not the Amount of Ice.

Yes thank you for that ray of brilliance.

Of course it can occur any time, but the smallest negative deviations (ie spike) tend to occur around April because there has been less long-term decline in spring.

[BethesdaWX]

Yes thank you for that ray of brilliance.

Of course it can occur any time, but the smallest negative deviations (ie spike) tend to occur around April because there has been less long-term decline in spring.

This is not the Case in all years though... you said it was... thats is False.

Will you admit it?

Then I'll move onto #3

[skierinvermont]

This is not the Case in all years though... you said it was... thats is False.

Will you admit it?

Then I'll move onto #3

I didn't say the spikes always occur in April, I said they usually do. As you can see, the past 5 years have all had their smallest anomalies occur in spring around April.

[BethesdaWX]

Umm... No. In reviewing the graph, only 6 years have seen the peak anomaly in April

Yes.. and the peak anomaly almost always occurs sometime around April (you can see the biggest spike in the anomaly all of the past 4 years has been around April).

So your prediction has already busted

Dude admit it already

[skierinvermont]

The worst part is he said it twice and then told me he meant it. And he's said similar things a half dozen other times to various posters.

This isn't just a language problem for him unfortunately.

[Clifford]

3) Steven Goddard's prediction of a minimum of 5.5 million sq km for arctic sea ice extent in 2011. (Actual: 4.8)

You receive a..

FAIL

I didn't realize that we had reached the minimum for 2011 yet...

12.009 million km² on Jan 1, 2011

13.01 on April 23, 2011.

This must be some special skierinvermont math!!!! Or perhaps using his Delorean Time Machine.

7 FAILS and counting should be 8 after this summer's minimum and we can probably add Bethesda's and Clifford's summer ice minimum guess to the list.

Counting your chickens before they hatch?

[skierinvermont]

I didn't realize that we had reached the minimum for 2011 yet...

12.009 million km² on Jan 1, 2011

13.01 on April 23, 2011.

This must be some special skierinvermont math!!!! Or perhaps using his Delorean Time Machine.

Oh that was a typo.. Goddard's 5.5 was for 2010 which ended as 4.8. Notice I said "(Actual: 4.8)."

Counting your chickens before they hatch?

I'll give you 3:1 odds in your favor on less than your prediction of 5.51-5.75 on Jaxa. Name the amount.

[Clifford]

Oh that was a typo.. Goddard's 5.5 was for 2010 which ended as 4.8. Notice I said "(Actual: 4.8)."

I'll give you 3:1 odds in your favor on less than your prediction of 5.51-5.75 on Jaxa. Name the amount.

What are the odds that it will be less than 5.0 (your prediction)?

I must admit that my prediction may have been a little ambitious, but I can see why I chose that.

I think we could put a $20 on it...

1:1 odds.

>= 5.51

<= 5.00

No payout between 5.01 and 5.50

Based on JAXA EXTENT:

Data file below.

http://www.ijis.iarc...extent/plot.csv

[skierinvermont]

What are the odds that it will be less than 5.0 (your prediction)?

I must admit that my prediction may have been a little ambitious, but I can see why I chose that.

I think we could put a $20 on it...

1:1 odds.

>= 5.51

<= 5.00

No payout between 5.01 and 5.50

Based on JAXA EXTENT:

Data file below.

http://www.ijis.iarc...extent/plot.csv

That's a closer bet but I'll take it!

[Clifford]

That's a closer bet but I'll take it!

Bookmarked...

At least I don't have to wait a whole decade as with Rusty!!!!!!!

We'll exchange info in September/October, after the first .25 or .5 million sq km gain.

[skierinvermont]

Interesting the online prediction markets have it close to 50/50 on whether we are below 2007 even. That's pretty extreme. I'd take the high side on that. Easy money or do they know something we don't know?

http://www.intrade.c...ntractId=744206

It's not like the intrade market is always biased low either or something.. last year they were going 50/50 on it being greater than 2009 (>5.3). http://www.intrade.c...z=1276634349535

So the markets for some reason think this year will be way lower. Maybe they're basing it off the drop in PIOMAS? Or maybe people were guessing high last year because 09>08>07 and they thought the trend would continue?

At the start of April the odds were 40/60 on 2011>2007.. now it's 65/35 so people's thinking has gotten higher. There appears to be a bit of a jump on April 5th when NSIDC released the improved ice thickness data. But the big jump occurs around April 15th. What happened on April 15 that made people think the minimum will be higher?

Either they know something we don't or that's easy money for the taking.

[nzucker]

Interesting the online prediction markets have it close to 50/50 on whether we are below 2007 even. That's pretty extreme. I'd take the high side on that. Easy money or do they know something we don't know?

http://www.intrade.c...ntractId=744206

It's not like the intrade market is always biased low either or something.. last year they were going 50/50 on it being greater than 2009 (>5.3). http://www.intrade.c...z=1276634349535

So the markets for some reason think this year will be way lower. Maybe they're basing it off the drop in PIOMAS? Or maybe people were guessing high last year because 09>08>07 and they thought the trend would continue?

At the start of April the odds were 40/60 on 2011>2007.. now it's 65/35 so people's thinking has gotten higher. There appears to be a bit of a jump on April 5th when NSIDC released the improved ice thickness data. But the big jump occurs around April 15th. What happened on April 15 that made people think the minimum will be higher?

Either they know something we don't or that's easy money for the taking.

Isn't it the other way around?

It says "Minimum Arctic ice extent for 2011 to be greater than 2007"

"65% chance"

Doesn't that mean there's a 65% chance that this year will have more ice than 2007?

[Clifford]

Interesting the online prediction markets have it close to 50/50 on whether we are below 2007 even. That's pretty extreme. I'd take the high side on that. Easy money or do they know something we don't know?

http://www.intrade.c...ntractId=744206

It's not like the intrade market is always biased low either or something.. last year they were going 50/50 on it being greater than 2009 (>5.3). http://www.intrade.c...z=1276634349535

So the markets for some reason think this year will be way lower. Maybe they're basing it off the drop in PIOMAS? Or maybe people were guessing high last year because 09>08>07 and they thought the trend would continue?

At the start of April the odds were 40/60 on 2011>2007.. now it's 65/35 so people's thinking has gotten higher. There appears to be a bit of a jump on April 5th when NSIDC released the improved ice thickness data. But the big jump occurs around April 15th. What happened on April 15 that made people think the minimum will be higher?

Either they know something we don't or that's easy money for the taking.

Interesting...

I think the Intrade comparison roughly follows the difference between 2007 and 2011 (with a slight delay).

It wasn't really until mid March that 2011 became greater than 2007.

And, not until late March when the difference really became significant.

However, for several reasons, such a comparison would have biased 2011 towards a low sea ice extent early in the year.

I think that somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 chance is about appropriate (4/5 - 80%?), so it probably isn't a good bet now... but I should have bought in a few weeks ago.