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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV/Big Jim: OBS 12/1-12/14


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Yeah but it's wasted cold, there's no snow threats in sight for the next 10 days. This is textbook La Nina with the colder December but complete lack of a STJ, giving us cold and dry conditions.

Last year, NYC didn't receive anything until December 19th. Give it a chance. You dont need a STJ to get snow. We can do just fine with northern stream systems, producing little events, ala '93-'94.

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I dunno why, and i know its 10 days out but i just have a feeling the storm next weekend is not going to be good. It seems like its coming in a period where the vortex is lifting out and right ahead another shot of cold air, thus warming us up. Anyone else have this kind of feeling? or should i just go back to bed for another 3 hrs.

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I dunno why, and i know its 10 days out but i just have a feeling the storm next weekend is not going to be good. It seems like its coming in a period where the vortex is lifting out and right ahead another shot of cold air, thus warming us up. Anyone else have this kind of feeling? or should i just go back to bed for another 3 hrs.

In La Nina, that's what's most likely to happen sadly. :(

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I dunno why, and i know its 10 days out but i just have a feeling the storm next weekend is not going to be good. It seems like its coming in a period where the vortex is lifting out and right ahead another shot of cold air, thus warming us up. Anyone else have this kind of feeling? or should i just go back to bed for another 3 hrs.

My feeling is that we'll have the cold air. Hopefully, we can get the storm. 12z GFS was really trying.

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Last year, NYC didn't receive anything until December 19th. Give it a chance. You dont need a STJ to get snow. We can do just fine with northern stream systems, producing little events, ala '93-'94.

You mention '93-'94. Can you imagine this board that year? We were near 80 degrees on Nov 15. No snow until Dec 29. This place would have been going crazy. Keep in mind, from basically NYC South, any accumulating snow that falls before 12/15 should be looked at as a bonus.

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My feeling is that we'll have the cold air. Hopefully, we can get the storm. 12z GFS was really trying.

I usually believe that the longer it stays cold, we'll get our snow. It's much better to have the cold air first, which we do now. We WILL get storms eventually. This sounds obvious, but it's much better to have the cold air already in place than the other way around.

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I usually believe that the longer it stays cold, we'll get our snow. It's much better to have the cold air first, which we do now. We WILL get storms eventually. This sounds obvious, but it's much better to have the cold air already in place than the other way around.

I think people need to remember last December, even though we may never see another winter like the last one. Other than a trace of snow on the 5th, there was no snow in Philly until the 22.5" on the 19th. There was some chilly air then as well (only got up to 38 on the 6th and 33 on the 11th). It the cold is here, there is a good chance the snow may follow.

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Exactly.....

I think people need to remember last December, even though we may never see another winter like the last one. Other than a trace of snow on the 5th, there was no snow in Philly until the 22.5" on the 19th. There was some chilly air then as well (only got up to 38 on the 6th and 33 on the 11th). It the cold is here, there is a good chance the snow may follow.

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I think people need to remember last December, even though we may never see another winter like the last one. Other than a trace of snow on the 5th, there was no snow in Philly until the 22.5" on the 19th. There was some chilly air then as well (only got up to 38 on the 6th and 33 on the 11th). It the cold is here, there is a good chance the snow may follow.

We've really been spoiled in December lately. But reality is, that in the NYC area, a "normal" December features around 5" of snow TOTAL. If it's cold, it will snow, even if it's nickel and dime events. If it's as cold as models are suggesting, it will snow.

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We've really been spoiled in December lately. But reality is, that in the NYC area, a "normal" December features around 5" of snow TOTAL. If it's cold, it will snow, even if it's nickel and dime events. If it's as cold as models are suggesting, it will snow.

Yea but isn't that what we thought in 2001-2002?

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Our pattern for the last several weeks has been about 2-3 weeks between storm systems of note. Outside of the Nicole event at the end of September/beginning of October, it's been dry for the most part the last few months as well.

The meme of "if it's cold long enough, it HAS to snow" has been proven false many, many times over the decades with patterns that go cold for 2-3 weeks, only to see the cold ease just enough to allow a Lakes Cutter to truck on through. I'm not saying that's what will happen with the next storm but the meme is more or less a weenie wishcast of sorts.

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monday night early tues could feature a very long lake effect band that could hit some of the region. I think that is what the euro was picking up on also in the 78 n 84 time frame

That feature shows up on the GFS but not as clearly defined -- it's had an area of light qpf over Philly off and on for the past 2-3 days.

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