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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV/Big Jim: OBS 12/1-12/14


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Tony

Agree...kind of interesting especially considering I have not recorded a temp above freezing here since Monday PM. But it does have a 42 degree high tomorrow (1 above my NWS point forecast) - and must simply assume the ground temp will be too warm and only wants to allow for above ground accretion. Hopefully temps are above freezing before any precip starts...not a big ice fan!

Actually just re-ran the forecast and it now shows little ice... even above ground as only 0.17" falls before about 4:30am when it has temps getting above freezing. Trend certainly looks a bit warmer quicker

Paul

Paul,

That is interesting on how that forecast differentiates between ice on the ground and accruing on exposed surfaces.

I would have thought occurring at night and after the cold week that the gap would be smaller.

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Tony

Agree...kind of interesting especially considering I have not recorded a temp above freezing here since Monday PM. But it does have a 42 degree high tomorrow (1 above my NWS point forecast) - and must simply assume the ground temp will be too warm and only wants to allow for above ground accretion. Hopefully temps are above freezing before any precip starts...not a big ice fan!

Actually just re-ran the forecast and it now shows little ice... even above ground as only 0.17" falls before about 4:30am when it has temps getting above freezing. Trend certainly looks a bit warmer quicker

Paul

Don't know if it's relevant or not, but temps have slowly risen throughout the evening as I am at my high for the day at 30.2 at the current time.

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Little bit of ice tonight and then Snow on Thursday

Wxsim has IP/ZR arriving by 11pm this evening here in the Philly burbs with around 0.21" of precip falling before temps rise above freezing at around 5am...another 0.98" of rain falls before ending as flurries on Monday morning

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A

slight chance of a mix of freezing rain and sleet in the evening, then a mix of

rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely after midnight. Low 28, but temperatures

rising after midnight. Wind east around 4 mph in the evening, becoming 9 mph

after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid

equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Little or no ice (on ground)

accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches.

Thursday Snow event

Thursday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. A chance of snow in the morning,

then a chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the afternoon. High 28. Wind

south-southeast around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation

(liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on

ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches

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Little bit of ice tonight and then Snow on Thursday

Wxsim has IP/ZR arriving by 11pm this evening here in the Philly burbs with around 0.21" of precip falling before temps rise above freezing at around 5am...another 0.98" of rain falls before ending as flurries on Monday morning

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A

slight chance of a mix of freezing rain and sleet in the evening, then a mix of

rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely after midnight. Low 28, but temperatures

rising after midnight. Wind east around 4 mph in the evening, becoming 9 mph

after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid

equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Little or no ice (on ground)

accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches.

Thursday Snow event

Thursday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. A chance of snow in the morning,

then a chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the afternoon. High 28. Wind

south-southeast around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation

(liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on

ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches

Paul,

Interesting it remains colder than any of the numerical guidance I saw leaving last night (as far as sfc temps). We'll see what happens, at least its a stealth time for it to occur. The Thursday one its the got the right idea that there should not be a 500 mile wide swath of happy snow with it no matter where it goes.

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Tony,

I think it's modeling too cold also....I am already up to 33 degrees here and am sure the NWS point forecast is much more realistic (low 36 tonight and high 52 tomorrow). We shall see

Take care,

Paul

Paul,

Interesting it remains colder than any of the numerical guidance I saw leaving last night (as far as sfc temps). We'll see what happens, at least its a stealth time for it to occur. The Thursday one its the got the right idea that there should not be a 500 mile wide swath of happy snow with it no matter where it goes.

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Morning low was 20.2, already up to 33.1, should touch 40 before we're done today.

Pretty amazing how potential for wintry weather just seems to 'melt' away around here:

Possible front end frozen for tomorrow's stom seem pretty unlikely

Changeover to snow at the end seems pretty unlikely as well

Earlier chances for some additional small accumulation on Monday in flurries and scatter squalls seems to have turned into a couple of insignificant flurries

Next week's cold seems to be a good deal less intense than thought earlier, to the point that we only see a day or two that stays just below freezing (similar to last week)

Future storm chances seem to be in suppression mode even though the cold push really isn't that strong

And the clock is ticking ever closer to the New Year's turnaround to torch mode...

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Iceman

I actually was below freezing from Monday PM till today so pretty impressive cold this past week....don't read too much into suppression mode at this point. All in all I would be surprised if we do not in fact have a white Christmas in our area for the 2nd straight year

Morning low was 20.2, already up to 33.1, should touch 40 before we're done today.

Pretty amazing how potential for wintry weather just seems to 'melt' away around here:

Possible front end frozen for tomorrow's stom seem pretty unlikely

Changeover to snow at the end seems pretty unlikely as well

Earlier chances for some additional small accumulation on Monday in flurries and scatter squalls seems to have turned into a couple of insignificant flurries

Next week's cold seems to be a good deal less intense than thought earlier, to the point that we only see a day or two that stays just below freezing (similar to last week)

Future storm chances seem to be in suppression mode even though the cold push really isn't that strong

And the clock is ticking ever closer to the New Year's turnaround to torch mode...

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I would be afraid to walk out on that lake....  :-)  It could use some snow!

Here's Minneapolis,  Minnesota's LIVE cameras    http://www.dot.state...ameras_map.html

They are getting plenty!

its was more than safe for 1 person.  Dont know if i would want to be skating with a whole group though lol.  Ive seen people ice fish on thinner ice tha that.  Belive me im a chicken when it comes to ice and i only ventured out to where it was knee deep water

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