ChescoWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Tony Agree...kind of interesting especially considering I have not recorded a temp above freezing here since Monday PM. But it does have a 42 degree high tomorrow (1 above my NWS point forecast) - and must simply assume the ground temp will be too warm and only wants to allow for above ground accretion. Hopefully temps are above freezing before any precip starts...not a big ice fan! Actually just re-ran the forecast and it now shows little ice... even above ground as only 0.17" falls before about 4:30am when it has temps getting above freezing. Trend certainly looks a bit warmer quicker Paul Paul, That is interesting on how that forecast differentiates between ice on the ground and accruing on exposed surfaces. I would have thought occurring at night and after the cold week that the gap would be smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Tony Agree...kind of interesting especially considering I have not recorded a temp above freezing here since Monday PM. But it does have a 42 degree high tomorrow (1 above my NWS point forecast) - and must simply assume the ground temp will be too warm and only wants to allow for above ground accretion. Hopefully temps are above freezing before any precip starts...not a big ice fan! Actually just re-ran the forecast and it now shows little ice... even above ground as only 0.17" falls before about 4:30am when it has temps getting above freezing. Trend certainly looks a bit warmer quicker Paul Don't know if it's relevant or not, but temps have slowly risen throughout the evening as I am at my high for the day at 30.2 at the current time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 well,l walked on my first frozen lake today. Looked to be about 3-4 inches of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Where is SACRUS' maps? anyone have that link? Tracking storms thread? It is very useful, thats why I ask I have some of the same maps on my website if you're interested. http://www.paranormalweather.com/weather.html Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Made it down to 18.5 here in near Easton. Did anyone notice if last night's lows were at, above, or below forecasted? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Little bit of ice tonight and then Snow on Thursday Wxsim has IP/ZR arriving by 11pm this evening here in the Philly burbs with around 0.21" of precip falling before temps rise above freezing at around 5am...another 0.98" of rain falls before ending as flurries on Monday morning Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of a mix of freezing rain and sleet in the evening, then a mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely after midnight. Low 28, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind east around 4 mph in the evening, becoming 9 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Little or no ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Thursday Snow event Thursday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. A chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the afternoon. High 28. Wind south-southeast around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Little bit of ice tonight and then Snow on Thursday Wxsim has IP/ZR arriving by 11pm this evening here in the Philly burbs with around 0.21" of precip falling before temps rise above freezing at around 5am...another 0.98" of rain falls before ending as flurries on Monday morning Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of a mix of freezing rain and sleet in the evening, then a mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely after midnight. Low 28, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind east around 4 mph in the evening, becoming 9 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Little or no ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Thursday Snow event Thursday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. A chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the afternoon. High 28. Wind south-southeast around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches Paul, Interesting it remains colder than any of the numerical guidance I saw leaving last night (as far as sfc temps). We'll see what happens, at least its a stealth time for it to occur. The Thursday one its the got the right idea that there should not be a 500 mile wide swath of happy snow with it no matter where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I have some of the same maps on my website if you're interested. http://www.paranorma...om/weather.html Mike Thanks Mike, Just bookmarked your site. That is a nice collection of maps you have there I appreciate it dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Tony, I think it's modeling too cold also....I am already up to 33 degrees here and am sure the NWS point forecast is much more realistic (low 36 tonight and high 52 tomorrow). We shall see Take care, Paul Paul, Interesting it remains colder than any of the numerical guidance I saw leaving last night (as far as sfc temps). We'll see what happens, at least its a stealth time for it to occur. The Thursday one its the got the right idea that there should not be a 500 mile wide swath of happy snow with it no matter where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 well,l walked on my first frozen lake today. Looked to be about 3-4 inches of ice. I remember getting ice skates in the 60's for Christmas and being able to go to a lake and skate the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Thanks Mike, Just bookmarked your site. That is a nice collection of maps you have there I appreciate it dude. No problem. The reason I created the page was because SACRUS map thread would get buried, so I took what I thought were the best maps and added some. Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Morning low was 20.2, already up to 33.1, should touch 40 before we're done today. Pretty amazing how potential for wintry weather just seems to 'melt' away around here: Possible front end frozen for tomorrow's stom seem pretty unlikely Changeover to snow at the end seems pretty unlikely as well Earlier chances for some additional small accumulation on Monday in flurries and scatter squalls seems to have turned into a couple of insignificant flurries Next week's cold seems to be a good deal less intense than thought earlier, to the point that we only see a day or two that stays just below freezing (similar to last week) Future storm chances seem to be in suppression mode even though the cold push really isn't that strong And the clock is ticking ever closer to the New Year's turnaround to torch mode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4Me Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 well,l walked on my first frozen lake today. Looked to be about 3-4 inches of ice. I would be afraid to walk out on that lake.... :-) It could use some snow! Here's Minneapolis, Minnesota's LIVE cameras http://www.dot.state...ameras_map.html They are getting plenty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Iceman I actually was below freezing from Monday PM till today so pretty impressive cold this past week....don't read too much into suppression mode at this point. All in all I would be surprised if we do not in fact have a white Christmas in our area for the 2nd straight year Morning low was 20.2, already up to 33.1, should touch 40 before we're done today. Pretty amazing how potential for wintry weather just seems to 'melt' away around here: Possible front end frozen for tomorrow's stom seem pretty unlikely Changeover to snow at the end seems pretty unlikely as well Earlier chances for some additional small accumulation on Monday in flurries and scatter squalls seems to have turned into a couple of insignificant flurries Next week's cold seems to be a good deal less intense than thought earlier, to the point that we only see a day or two that stays just below freezing (similar to last week) Future storm chances seem to be in suppression mode even though the cold push really isn't that strong And the clock is ticking ever closer to the New Year's turnaround to torch mode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 I would be afraid to walk out on that lake.... :-) It could use some snow! Here's Minneapolis, Minnesota's LIVE cameras http://www.dot.state...ameras_map.html They are getting plenty! its was more than safe for 1 person. Dont know if i would want to be skating with a whole group though lol. Ive seen people ice fish on thinner ice tha that. Belive me im a chicken when it comes to ice and i only ventured out to where it was knee deep water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 11, 2010 Author Share Posted December 11, 2010 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Could hit 60F in parts on NJ tomorrow, I'm forecast to be in the mid 50s. When I said that we could hit the 60s, people on here thought I was crazy, but that's exactly what could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 42.8 for the high today which was 4 degrees above the forecast high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 High of 42 today in both Easton and Martins Creek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Freezing Rain Advisory here in NW New Jersey 12AM-7AM. Just a while ago I was sceptical since the temperature was still in the 40s, but now it quickly dropped down 35 F. I guess we'll just wait and see. High today was 44 F. Forecast for tomorrow is 48 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 High today of 38.8,forecast was 39...1st time over 30 since last Sat.,Amazing...Right now temp. just slipped back under 32 @31.3...we still have patches of snow on the ground so ground and trees,etc, look like they'll support the Fr.Rain forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Already down to 33 F. Precipitation may arrive before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Great day weatherwise today for some yardwork. Was able to get about 3 bags of leaves that blew into my yard (from various neighbors) this past week. Can't wait to see how many leaves will reappear this week. High temp: 47.2 at 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 high 45.1° at 2:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Already down to 33 F. Precipitation may arrive before midnight. ah 28.7 here but under partly cloudy skies. Once the clouds roll in it will be 33-34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I was 32.4 an hour ago. Im now up to 35.2 with light rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Light rain just began here in NW Chesco Temp 36.6 RH 80% DP 31.0 Wind NE 3 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 ah 28.7 here but under partly cloudy skies. Once the clouds roll in it will be 33-34 Down to 27 F now, but skies are still relatively clear. Perhaps the ice event will only be elevational if temps do indeed rise early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I was 32.4 an hour ago. Im now up to 35.2 with light rain falling. I'm at 32.4 right now, but no rain yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I'm at 32.4 right now, but no rain yet. I'm back down to 33.3. I still have light rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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