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May 2011 general discussion/obs thread


Powerball

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Hopefully next weeks midweek torch will get them leaves popping out like weenies on prom night. Depressing out there with barely any of the tree's blooming or leafing out. hopefully the nice gradual cool down in fantasy land after the torch comes true.. way to early for AC but w/e.

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There was some real light frost on the grassy west facing embankment along Lake Shore Drive this morning, pretty damn impressive for May in the city.

As for next week, 60s and rainy sounds better than the 40-50s and rainy i'm used to, so i'll take it.

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DTX. AFD

A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH

DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SENDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE

BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT

SHOWING 500MB HEIGHTS REACH 576DM BY TUESDAY NEAR THE STATE LINE. THE

WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY BUT WILL BE SUPPRESSED ON

MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE STATE AND

WINDS KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT OFF THE LAKES.

NEVERTHELESS...A STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED

THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED OVER

TIME AS WE GET A FEEL FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

Ill take a brief warm-up. The last week with the exception of a couple days have been nice. Trees are well under way and a sea of green as far as the eye can see on the horizon. By mid next week it will look like May should around here with regards to plant life. Garden will be planted this weekend..As temps look fine (a short cool down in the long range possible but it shouldn't hurt anything.)

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What a surprise, we're probably going to see a bust rain event. I know we've already had one. Yesterday they were forecasting around a half inch of rain, we'll be lucky to get a tenth of an inch now. I don't mind rain (in fact, I actually like it) when the temp is in the 50s or higher, but anywhere between 32 and 50 and rain is about the worst weather in my book.

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There has been a positive side effect of this cool/wet spring here in Michigan. The Morel Mushrooms have been popping like crazy. At $15-20 0z (wet) and 30-50$ (dehydrated)(depending on the grocery vendor) it's like finding Gold growing out of the ground. My personal morel steak sauce is a priceless complement for any steak!!!

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23046120501697806241435.jpg

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The setup for cold pool t'storms is about as unimpressive as they come today (500mb is only -25*C and just barey closed off, surface tempps are in the low/mid 60s and dewpoints are in the low 40s), but just good enough to spark my interest.

I miss the cold pool t'storm events of 2007 and 2008 where we would have -35 or colder 500mb cold pools come through here with surface temps in the 70s. Those were great setups, very picturesque with the montainous/puffy cumulonimbus clouds.

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The setup for cold pool t'storms is about as unimpressive as they come today (500mb is only -25*C and just barey closed off, surface tempps are in the low/mid 60s and dewpoints are in the low 40s), but just good enough to spark my interest.

I miss the cold pool t'storm events of 2007 and 2008 where we would have -35 or colder 500mb cold pools come through here with surface temps in the 70s. Those were great setups, very picturesque with the montainous/puffy cumulonimbus clouds.

Yea..Some of my favorite T-Storm photos are those that took from May 2008. Beautiful clear blue sky with towering cumulonimbus anvils..Loved the hail events associated with those. Ill dig those pics out and post them latter.

I believe one of the more impressive cold pool T-Storms happened on a chilly (seasonal) late 2008 May afternoon. We had temps in the lower 60s but it was just enough to fire the bad boys.

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Wooooooohooooooo

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 231 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2011 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-061930- BAY-GENESEE-HURON-LAPEER-LENAWEE-LIVINGSTON-MACOMB-MIDLAND-MONROE- OAKLAND-SAGINAW-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-ST. CLAIR-TUSCOLA-WASHTENAW-WAYNE- 231 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2011 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT... NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH PEA SIZE HAIL. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY COOL TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES.
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12z GFS and Euro are very different after mid next week. The GFS continues to show a big, cool low dropping south from Canada through the great lakes and cutting off, leading to another several days of below normal temps for many of us. The Euro had been somewhat similar, although less intense, but the 12z run keeps the big low over southeast Canada, allowing another warm upper ridge to quickly build into the upper midwest.

Anyone have any thoughts as to which scenario is more likely?

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GFS MOS has 88 here on Tuesday. Not surprising given that it's showing 850 mb temps over 20C.

Ahh our first 88/72 environment day this year....gotta love them. 6/18 last year was a good one last year. We were cooking with gas early that day.

Don't know how warm it could here today, saw a bank say 72 in Glen Ellyn, did catch my first 4lb largemouth of the season this morning, was cool watching while fishing go from clear blue skies to a nice cu congested field in about an hour.

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We eeked out a gorgeous day here as well. We've had full sunshine all day with temps in the mid/upper 60s. The counties near the Ohio Border however are getting drenched.

We managed to make it to 70*F at Metro Airport, overachieving by 5 degrees.

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