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May 2011 general discussion/obs thread


Powerball

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DTX :sun:

A LARGE SCALE AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FORCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE WIND FIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A LARGE SCALE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP...WHICH WOULD BRING THE FIRST LEGITIMATE STRETCH OF SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HAVE GENERALLY PLAYED THE FORECAST IN A WARMING TREND...BUT PURE MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING THAT TEMPERATURES COULD BE TOPPING THE MIDDLE 70S BY TUESDAY. WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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:sun:

KDPA   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/03/2011  1200 UTC                       
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
    WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10|WED CLIMO
N/X  32  60| 37  63| 44  65| 48  69| 49  71| 52  76| 57  80| 56 44 69
TMP  37  53| 42  57| 47  60| 52  63| 52  66| 55  71| 61  74| 59      
DPT  31  30| 36  42| 43  41| 46  48| 48  49| 50  55| 55  58| 52      
WND   9   7|  9  16| 12  11|  8  12|  9  11| 11  15| 15  18| 17      
P12   9   0|  8  55| 48  15| 31  35| 30  30| 48  33| 32  27| 36999999
P24       9|     55|     59|     54|     43|     57|     42|      999
Q12   0   0|  0   1|  1   0|  0   1|  0   0|  3   1|       |         
Q24       0|      1|      1|      1|      1|      4|       |         
T12   3   0|  3  17| 18   7| 10  20| 13  12| 28  23| 35  28| 28      
T24        |  3    | 22    | 24    | 32    | 39    | 50    | 46      
PZP   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   2|  1   0|  0      
PSN   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0      
PRS   1   5|  1   3|  3   3|  1   1|  1   1|  1   2|  3   1|  1      
TYP   R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R      
SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       | 

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Let's hope we can get that ridge in here, Illinois corn in the ground is only 10% right now which is not good. Skilling seems to think the blocking over greenland is gonna dominate the next 2 weeks, he love's cold anyway, he never talks in depth about warmth anyway.

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Thankfully it looks like the real heat only pays a visit for a couple days here on the euro and then back to normal and below.. Maybe stebo can finally get some of that heavy severe weather he predicted starting in late March for SE MI. to come to fruition

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Thankfully it looks like the real heat only pays a visit for a couple days here on the euro and then back to normal and below.. Maybe stebo can finally get some of that heavy severe weather he predicted starting in late March for SE MI. to come to fruition

You and Tropical are at odds for sure. Personally, I like a summer near average in temps (70s and 80s predominating, maybe a bit cooler than average) with plenty of storms. 2008 and last year were good summers, and even though '09 didn't have much severe, frequent 70s meant a very comfortable summer. After today, this upcoming pattern looks nice and typical for May.

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Looking like we got another week before we get our first high temp of the yr in the 70's B) Best spring ever so far with only one AC day.. Gonna miss it when its gone and the house is closed up again for 4 months of AC -_-

I was looking at MKE climate data and there's been one day in the 80's but everything else 60's or below. Sort of weird that there hasn't been any 70's.

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You and Tropical are at odds for sure. Personally, I like a summer near average in temps (70s and 80s predominating, maybe a bit cooler than average) with plenty of storms. 2008 and last year were good summers, and even though '09 didn't have much severe, frequent 70s meant a very comfortable summer. After today, this upcoming pattern looks nice and typical for May.

I love the northern 4 seasons and the ups and downs they bring like today's high of 44 at 9:45am... Nothing worse than more than a couple of 70's/80's in april and first half of may to blow the best average high temps of the yr and have to use the AC. I actually don't mind hot weather in summer but as you get older the novelty for me started to wear off especially when its a swamp ass summer like all of 2010. I was addicted to the sun, hot temps and even some tanning booth springs :axe: in my teens all through most of my 20's and its amazing I don't have skin cancer yet. Its no secret I like it as cool as can be now but I can also appreciate some good ole las vegas type heat, just keep away the high DP air.

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My fear with the model solutions now is that they're quite frankly crap. The set up would argue for more of a zonal flow versus anything really amplified.

They did the same thing back in early April and we all remember how those mid/long range SE ridge didn't verify.

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My fear with the model solutions now is that they're quite frankly crap. The set up would argue for more of a zonal flow versus anything really amplified.

They did the same thing back in early April and we all remember how those mid/long range SE ridge didn't verify.

Negativity or realism?? :whistle:.

Now are you guys talking about the cold front that ATM looks like a non issue..At most a 2 day "cool" down then back to normal.

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gfs_namer_216_1000_500_thick.gif

At 200+ hrs a cool down appears..Lets see how this evolves in the next 10 days..if it wont completely vanish altogether.

Posting a map after 180 = fail

And wisconsinwx you are complaining about a forecast a week out, the odds of it verifying this far out are probably under 20%..

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Had a high of 60 which is on the cool side for this time of year but not too bad.

Today is 2 weeks since the tornado hit south of here. I went past there again and it looks like it hit just a few days ago. Still a lot that needs to be cleaned up.

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Had a high of 60 which is on the cool side for this time of year but not too bad.

Today is 2 weeks since the tornado hit south of here. I went past there again and it looks like it hit just a few days ago. Still a lot that needs to be cleaned up.

Wow, hard to believe it's already been two weeks. It's amazing how long that event lasted into the night.

Severe season really hasn't started from I-80 north in Illinois. We had a few elevated hailers last month, but so far it's been pretty sleepy up here in the cold air. The 4/10 potential event was largely a huge bust for this area luckily.

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Wow, hard to believe it's already been two weeks. It's amazing how long that event lasted into the night.

Severe season really hasn't started from I-80 north in Illinois. We had a few elevated hailers last month, but so far it's been pretty sleepy up here in the cold air. The 4/10 potential event was largely a huge bust for this area luckily.

Looks like the upcoming pattern will yield some severe chances in northern Illinois.

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