wisconsinwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 What? One day wonders then back to NE winds after a front slides down the lake? That's what it REALLY seems like this year. Every warm spell was only 1 day long. The thing about this spring that has me down is there have been precious few late spring days: 60s, sunshine kind of days. Also, when it has torched, most of the severe convection has been focused north or south of here. These, combined with the number of 40 degree, rain, wind, raw kind of days makes this just about the worst spring I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 old but good stuff from LOT THE LARGER CHALLENGE WILL BE THE PROXIMITY OF A RING-OF-FIRE SETTINGUP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE OF PRODUCING A SERIES OF MCS...WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM TAKES ON A SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS TO THE SERIES OF COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE NOTED IN JULY OF 2010...WHICH PRODUCED FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA/WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS. PRIOR TO THIS MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WAS IN THE MIDST OF WIDESPREAD HEAT AND HUMIDITY. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES...THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE ANOMALIES OF PWAT/MFLUX THAT AN ACTIVE MON/TUE MAY BE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST POSSIBLY GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THE CHALLENGE IS THE PRECISE PLACEMENT OF THIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GEFS MEMBERS WITHIN THE LATEST CYCLE ARE WEAKENING THE RIDGE EARLIER AND PLACEMENT IS FURTHER SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 old but good stuff from LOT I saw that, but the pattern sounds like what I feared. Finally get the heat and humidity, but the areas for storms are both south and north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I saw that, but the pattern sounds like what I feared. Finally get the heat and humidity, but the areas for storms are both south and north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 The Chicago area is probably ripe for plenty of convective chances late this weekend and next week, so your optimism is probably warranted. For whatever reason, MKX seems to have written off the next week for any meaningful convection chances, which may or may not be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 After today, 15+ inches of rain this month. Maybe by July the ground and golf courses will dry up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Tuesday has consistently been shown as being pretty active. Of course it does, I work Tuesday so it will probably be very bumpy that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 After today, 15+ inches of rain this month. Maybe by July the ground and golf courses will dry up 15+ inches of rain this month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Big extended Inferno on the Euro! Heavy AC and Box fans in the window usage. Heavy condensation dripping down my beer bottle and balls. Heavy amounts of baby powder making it to the bathroom floor - don't let your wife, GF or BF slip-n-fall and dicker their appliance up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 15+ inches of rain this month? I believe that's correct for Detroit. They had 4-5 inches yesterday alone. Correction April and may. I read it somewhere on my phone earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 I believe that's correct for Detroit. They had 4-5 inches yesterday alone. Correction April and may. I read it somewhere on my phone earlier. I know at Metro we have had a little over 4" as of yesterday, so maybe this is numbers for City Airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Death ridge setting in for the summer. Cya all in the fall.. Severe weather is going on vacation or in se Michigan's case it remains in hibernation. Should be in drought conditions by fall and continues all winter. Keep your snow pics of the last 3 or 4 yrs handy because that's about all the snow we're going to see this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 MKE really backpedaling on the warmth. Now has a high of 64 on Wednesday. Looks like two days of 70s out of this "torch". LMAO. "HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN WARM FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WISCONSIN ILLINOIS BORDER THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO STRENGTHENS. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR TO ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY." Heh, it'll never get here. Maybe another "one day wonder" torch before backdoor front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Eh, maybe. Alek was pumping the MCS/convective stuff during the first half of May "heatwave" when Chicago touched 90, I would be carefull as the wind direction is reversing and the lake will be less of a influence. Considering the building ridge, the backdoor front looks to be less as well, very similiar to 1943 and 1956. The front may stay to your south, or it may be further north. Models never get a good handle on that to inside 48hrs. If you are so worried about temperatures you need to head south. Been very summer like for a week in western ohio. Temps in the 80's, lows consistantly about 60-65. Have had to use the ac quite a bit even against our landlords wishes..... 40s up here for endless days. Lake influence is probably the same since it has not yet warmed much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Death ridge setting in for the summer. Cya all in the fall.. Severe weather is going on vacation or in se Michigan's case it remains in hibernation. Should be in drought conditions by fall and continues all winter. Keep your snow pics of the last 3 or 4 yrs handy because that's about all the snow we're going to see this winter My notion that we wouldn't see a slight risk for severe weather again until Mid-June is looking more and more likely. I got criticized for making that prediction too early but I just had a feeling we would get out of the stormy pattern just in time for the warmth that could support severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Of course it does, I work Tuesday so it will probably be very bumpy that day. I don't work again until next Thursday...so let's go active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 My notion that we wouldn't see a slight risk for severe weather again until Mid-June is looking more and more likely. I got criticized for making that prediction too early but I just had a feeling we would get out of the stormy pattern just in time for the warmth that could support severe weather. Stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 My notion that we wouldn't see a slight risk for severe weather again until Mid-June is looking more and more likely. I got criticized for making that prediction too early but I just had a feeling we would get out of the stormy pattern just in time for the warmth that could support severe weather. You're underestimating what it takes to get a Slight Risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Stop posting. I didn't mean to get confrontational, I just posted what I thought would happen, partly based on the unfortunate inkling that we're probably due for a low convection season, and things went from there. Non-met members should be able to post their thoughts, even if it is not backed up in science. All the science in the world cannot tell people what the weather will be like with certainty anyways since it is unpredictable and always changing. I should stop belaboring my qualms about this spring, though, I will admit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Today is actually late May? Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Today is actually late May? Good grief. Granted it's over the top cold for late May, way too cold really, but I'll be pining for this next week when the death ridge sets up shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Solid early June heat wave looks right on track! Med/Long Ranges keeps these conditions around though a return to seasonal warmth. Summer arrived right on time! Yep, and depending on which model you believe we shouldn't have a day below 80*F next week. Perfect summer weather indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Today is actually late May? Good grief. It should be illegal to have to wear a sweatshirt on May 26th. And I'll have to wear one again tomorrow, smh. Gets much much better after that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 15+ inches of rain this month? We have received 9.34" In May in Huntington and 14.03" since April 15th. We have had at least a trace of rain on 33 out of the last 41 days. Right now the death ridge is sounding pretty sweet to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Wow, that's an impressive Euro map for Memorial Day. 20C+ 850 mb temps creeping all the way into upstate NY with a 594dm ridge centered over central OH. If correct, we would probably see mid to upper 90s in Minneapolis, low to mid 90s in Chicago, low 90s in Detroit and Toledo, around 90 in Cleveland and Columbus, with upper 80s all the way to Pittsburgh and Buffalo. LAF, the hot spot of IN, would probably check in close to 95. Although I think he's overplaying the "cool spring" meme... I realize it's been a little cooler in SE Michigan, but there hasn't been anything significantly below normal since March. April was near normal (ranging from -0.8 at Detroit to +0.4 at Flint). May, after today, should be 1 to nearly 3 degrees above normal all across the SE Michigan region -- and if the month ends with a big heat wave, it could finish 2-4 degrees above normal regionwide. It has been a cool spring. In fact, Detroit has seen 5 consecutive months of below normal temperatures. Just like when CLE had XX months in a row of warmer than normal temps, a few of those months were BARELY (like +0.1 or +0,3 if i recall), but its still above normal. So DTW's depatures of -1.9F in Mar and -0.8F in Apr are certainly below normal, just not as below normal as Dec, Jan, and Feb were. Also, the May departure is only +0.6F to date, so in the end, it will still be a below normal Spring. FNT/MBS are more above normal, but fwiw DTW is the biggest metro in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 After today, 15+ inches of rain this month. Maybe by July the ground and golf courses will dry up Its been a ridiculously wet year. The 24-hour rainfall through 8am today was 1.84" at DTW, 3.16" at DET, and 2.09" imby...and we have added more this afternoon as well. Still, I dont think anyone in SE MI is near 15" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 I believe that's correct for Detroit. They had 4-5 inches yesterday alone. Correction April and may. I read it somewhere on my phone earlier. Detroit City Airport had 4.28" in Apr and 5.91" in May through 7pm today. Detroit Metro Airport (the official station for Detroit) had 5.61" in April and 4.65" in May through 7pm today. So essentially the 2-month total for both places is over 10" but less than 11". Add in the heavy rain and snow of Mar and the heavy snow of Jan/Feb, it has been one hell of a wet year. Will post some year-to-date totals once we dry out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 Warm and wet Spring for LAF. Well, wet only because of April. All three months will be solidly above normal warm. March: 42.4º (+1.7)...2.15" (-0.74") April: 54.5º (+3.0)...7.89" (+4.44") May: 62.5º (through yesterday, normal May avg temp is 62.3º)...N/A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 What? One day wonders then back to NE winds after a front slides down the lake? That's what it REALLY seems like this year. Every warm spell was only 1 day long. So, what you're saying is a typical Spring in Wisconsin near the lake? Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 So, what you're saying is a typical Spring in Wisconsin near the lake? Awesome. yeah I think Cro is trolling too hard as usual... maybe he should spend more time worshiping his palm tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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