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May 2011 general discussion/obs thread

Powerball

By Powerball,
in Central/Western States

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
Posted

Both the GFS and particularly the 00Z Euro develop a substantial ridge across the Eastern US. The Euro is advertising a large area of T850s of 20C+ across the much of the area including the GLs, and 500 heights up to 594. Looking at Euro surface temps, many locations across the MW/GL/OV/plains exceed 90F.

post-1245-0-30198100-1306246869.gif

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radionicist

radionicist

Posted
Posted

This AFD snippet from KIWX is the best thing the've written since February:

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE HEAVY DOMINANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM IN THE REGION IS BEING

INCREASINGLY PROGGED TO END IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FORECAST MODELS

AND MEAN ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY ALL ON BOARD WITH SUPPORTING MASSIVE

HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC/RETREAT OF THE

SEMI-PERMANENT HUDSON BAY VORTEX NORTH/AND WESTERN NOAM TROUGHING PER

CONTINUED ACTIVE NORTHER PAC FLOW WITH TROUGH RELOADING. THIS

TRANSITION WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT AN END TO THE WET PATTERN THAT THE

REGION HAS BEEN LOCKED IN...BEING REPLACED BY A MASSIVE EASTERN

CONUS RIDGE. SIGNALS FOR THIS EVOLUTION ARE GROWING AND BECOMING

MORE PERSISTENT IN MODEL PROGS...HENCE HAVE STARTED TO TREND IN

THIS DIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

Our year to date rainfall total is right at 9" over normal, and our corn planting rate is at about 10%, where it should be nearly finished by now.

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
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Posted

DTX is busting too low on the temps thus far.

They were forecasting a high of 69*F and we're already at 71*F. I'm not sure why they went so low with a NW flow and 850mb temps around 10*C (which supports highs at least in the lower 70s), but I guess there was a good reason.

The startocumulus so far is also struggling to developed, granted there have been some puffy SCT-BKN low clouds.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

I was expecting it to be a struggle to 50. Tomorrow should be 50s but with rain all day it might as well be 40s.

Yeah I wasn't expecting any miracles but I expected to see 50 over the 48 it was. Looks like a decent soaker coming.. would be a nice WAA snow hit if it was winter.. Thursday looks to be another day we struggle to hit 50. Big torch up here still on for Sunday. Hopefully the following week is the same for those with the whole week off and for those along the lake shore that have been royally screwed all spring.

I wonder how much below normal the temp of LM is.. I see one bouy is only showing an air temp of 39 degrees. Next weeks torch should give it a nice kick start to warming.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

1988 (which was one of the top analogs for last summer) and 1989 were also back to back hot summers, so it wouldn't surprise me if we saw another one.

I dont remember 1988 being thrown out as an analog last year, and though 2010 was hot it did not have near the extreme heat that 1988 did. You can thank muggy summer nights for the high placement (5th I think) on the hottest summers list. Oh, and 1989 was not at all a hot summer, on the contrary temps were below normal. 1987 was hot, maybe thats what you were thinking. Its really not that uncommon to have back to back hot summers. We have had very long stretches.

10 consecutive hotter than normal summers (1930-39).

14 of 15 summers were hotter than normal (1930-1944, the exception being 1940 which JUST BARELY ended up a TAD below normal).

We just arent seeing 90s like we used to in Detroit. Its a stat that local global warmingistas would cringe at, seeing as though many claim increasing summer heat would be the most notable affect of GW on sensible wx. First column is days of 90F+, second column is days of 100F+

1900s       	56         	0

1910s     	107         	3

1920s     	100         	0

1930s     	169        	14

1940s     	160         	1

1950s     	154         	5

1960s     	111         	0

1970s         119         	2

1980s     	127         	5

1990s     	123         	1

2000s     	102         	0

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
Posted

Euro shows a 3 day heatwave across the region.

Here, the 12Z Euro shows T850s climbing up to the mid 20s by early Tues and 500mb heights around 595, with surface temps in the upper 80s on sun, and the lower 90s on Mon/Tues. Dewpoints also reach the upper 60s/lower 70s.

DET

SUN 00Z 29-MAY  18.1 	9.4    1015      76      41    0.00 	581 	568    
SUN 06Z 29-MAY  15.2    12.4    1015      86      27    0.00 	583 	570    
SUN 12Z 29-MAY  16.4    14.9    1016      83      59    0.00 	586 	572    
SUN 18Z 29-MAY  23.3    18.9    1014      69      35    0.00 	590 	577    
MON 00Z 30-MAY  24.4    21.3    1012      71      28    0.00 	591 	580    
MON 06Z 30-MAY  21.4    21.3    1015      82      25    0.00 	592 	580    
MON 12Z 30-MAY  20.7    20.7    1017      83      22    0.00 	593 	578    
MON 18Z 30-MAY  25.9    21.5    1018      63      21    0.00 	595 	579    
TUE 00Z 31-MAY  25.0    23.0    1018      71      25    0.00 	595 	580    
TUE 06Z 31-MAY  20.4    24.6    1019      88      29    0.00 	595 	579    
TUE 12Z 31-MAY  21.2    23.1    1021      86      32    0.00 	595 	577

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

More of the usual flip flopping on this afternoons Euro in the extended. Brings refreshing air in after Tuesday while 00Z had serious swampville arse all week. Hopefully something in the middle works out.

High of 64 today goes in the book at 12:12 AM.. Was supposedly 43 at 11:09 AM.

High last yr this date was 88

47 out now

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OHSnow

OHSnow

Posted
Posted

Deedler talks about a warm up...

http://weatherhistor...-in-summer.html

Wow, that's an impressive Euro map for Memorial Day. 20C+ 850 mb temps creeping all the way into upstate NY with a 594dm ridge centered over central OH. If correct, we would probably see mid to upper 90s in Minneapolis, low to mid 90s in Chicago, low 90s in Detroit and Toledo, around 90 in Cleveland and Columbus, with upper 80s all the way to Pittsburgh and Buffalo. LAF, the hot spot of IN, would probably check in close to 95.

Although I think he's overplaying the "cool spring" meme... I realize it's been a little cooler in SE Michigan, but there hasn't been anything significantly below normal since March. April was near normal (ranging from -0.8 at Detroit to +0.4 at Flint). May, after today, should be 1 to nearly 3 degrees above normal all across the SE Michigan region -- and if the month ends with a big heat wave, it could finish 2-4 degrees above normal regionwide.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Wow, that's an impressive Euro map for Memorial Day. 20C+ 850 mb temps creeping all the way into upstate NY with a 594dm ridge centered over central OH. If correct, we would probably see mid to upper 90s in Minneapolis, low to mid 90s in Chicago, low 90s in Detroit and Toledo, around 90 in Cleveland and Columbus, with upper 80s all the way to Pittsburgh and Buffalo. LAF, the hot spot of IN, would probably check in close to 95.

:gun_bandana: but I agree that we will be in the 90's if it verifies

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
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I dont remember 1988 being thrown out as an analog last year, and though 2010 was hot it did not have near the extreme heat that 1988 did. You can thank muggy summer nights for the high placement (5th I think) on the hottest summers list. Oh, and 1989 was not at all a hot summer, on the contrary temps were below normal. 1987 was hot, maybe thats what you were thinking. Its really not that uncommon to have back to back hot summers. We have had very long stretches.

10 consecutive hotter than normal summers (1930-39).

14 of 15 summers were hotter than normal (1930-1944, the exception being 1940 which JUST BARELY ended up a TAD below normal).

We just arent seeing 90s like we used to in Detroit. Its a stat that local global warmingistas would cringe at, seeing as though many claim increasing summer heat would be the most notable affect of GW on sensible wx. First column is days of 90F+, second column is days of 100F+

1900s           56             0

1910s         107             3

1920s         100             0

1930s         169            14

1940s         160             1

1950s         154             5

1960s         111             0

1970s         119             2

1980s         127             5

1990s         123             1

2000s         102             0

As I said before, it's probably because we're in a decadal -NAO cycle. There was a sharp gradient in the heat last year though. One can definitely notice the influence of the -NAO even last summer with all the convective debris. Combine that with all the soil moisture left over from our recently snowy winters and that pretty screws up everything.

The same thing happened in the 1970s and early 1980s in Detroit. It's pretty miserable if you want any persistent sunny/hot/dry weather.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

As I said before, it's probably because we're in a decadal -NAO cycle. There was a sharp gradient in the heat last year though. One can definitely notice the influence of the -NAO even last summer with all the convective debris. Combine that with all the soil moisture left over from our recently snowy winters and that pretty screws up everything.

The same thing happened in the 1970s and early 1980s in Detroit. It's pretty miserable if you want any persistent sunny/hot/dry weather.

You should probably think about moving. Houston, or better yet Brownsville may be more suitable to your wants/needs. SE MI...not so much.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Hey. You should post more in the offseason.

I don't know Hoosier. There was something like 450 active users when I was logged in earlier this afternoon. Adding another voice to the cacophony is probably not in the best interest of the forum. :lol: But hey, if I have anything interesting to add to the discussion, I won't hesitate.

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