Chicago WX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Here is a photo shot last night from a buddy of mine. I shot some video of this exact cloud formation.. Sweet photo. Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Both the GFS and particularly the 00Z Euro develop a substantial ridge across the Eastern US. The Euro is advertising a large area of T850s of 20C+ across the much of the area including the GLs, and 500 heights up to 594. Looking at Euro surface temps, many locations across the MW/GL/OV/plains exceed 90F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Video shot last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Sick pic, MMW. Still a tit bit nipply in the 40's. Need what last nights euro **** out to start warming up LM some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radionicist Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 This AFD snippet from KIWX is the best thing the've written since February: .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE HEAVY DOMINANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM IN THE REGION IS BEING INCREASINGLY PROGGED TO END IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FORECAST MODELS AND MEAN ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY ALL ON BOARD WITH SUPPORTING MASSIVE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC/RETREAT OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT HUDSON BAY VORTEX NORTH/AND WESTERN NOAM TROUGHING PER CONTINUED ACTIVE NORTHER PAC FLOW WITH TROUGH RELOADING. THIS TRANSITION WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT AN END TO THE WET PATTERN THAT THE REGION HAS BEEN LOCKED IN...BEING REPLACED BY A MASSIVE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. SIGNALS FOR THIS EVOLUTION ARE GROWING AND BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT IN MODEL PROGS...HENCE HAVE STARTED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. Our year to date rainfall total is right at 9" over normal, and our corn planting rate is at about 10%, where it should be nearly finished by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 DTX is busting too low on the temps thus far. They were forecasting a high of 69*F and we're already at 71*F. I'm not sure why they went so low with a NW flow and 850mb temps around 10*C (which supports highs at least in the lower 70s), but I guess there was a good reason. The startocumulus so far is also struggling to developed, granted there have been some puffy SCT-BKN low clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 1988 (which was one of the top analogs for last summer) and 1989 were also back to back hot summers, so it wouldn't surprise me if we saw another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 24, 2011 Author Share Posted May 24, 2011 Oh wait, the stratocumuls is developing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Expected to see it warmed up a little when I woke up from a nap and instead see its dropped a degree to 48. 45 up by saukville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Expected to see it warmed up a little when I woke up from a nap and instead see its dropped a degree to 48. 45 up by saukville. I was expecting it to be a struggle to 50. Tomorrow should be 50s but with rain all day it might as well be 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I was expecting it to be a struggle to 50. Tomorrow should be 50s but with rain all day it might as well be 40s. Yeah I wasn't expecting any miracles but I expected to see 50 over the 48 it was. Looks like a decent soaker coming.. would be a nice WAA snow hit if it was winter.. Thursday looks to be another day we struggle to hit 50. Big torch up here still on for Sunday. Hopefully the following week is the same for those with the whole week off and for those along the lake shore that have been royally screwed all spring. I wonder how much below normal the temp of LM is.. I see one bouy is only showing an air temp of 39 degrees. Next weeks torch should give it a nice kick start to warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Had a few good gusty storms yesterday, though due to brevity the total rainfall was only 0.28" on the day. Not at all lookng forward to heat, hoping it is muted at best. Got a few decent pics around 8pm though. Sunny storm and a rainbow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Deedler talks about a warm up... http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2011/05/strong-ridge-to-herald-in-summer.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 1988 (which was one of the top analogs for last summer) and 1989 were also back to back hot summers, so it wouldn't surprise me if we saw another one. I dont remember 1988 being thrown out as an analog last year, and though 2010 was hot it did not have near the extreme heat that 1988 did. You can thank muggy summer nights for the high placement (5th I think) on the hottest summers list. Oh, and 1989 was not at all a hot summer, on the contrary temps were below normal. 1987 was hot, maybe thats what you were thinking. Its really not that uncommon to have back to back hot summers. We have had very long stretches. 10 consecutive hotter than normal summers (1930-39). 14 of 15 summers were hotter than normal (1930-1944, the exception being 1940 which JUST BARELY ended up a TAD below normal). We just arent seeing 90s like we used to in Detroit. Its a stat that local global warmingistas would cringe at, seeing as though many claim increasing summer heat would be the most notable affect of GW on sensible wx. First column is days of 90F+, second column is days of 100F+ 1900s 56 0 1910s 107 3 1920s 100 0 1930s 169 14 1940s 160 1 1950s 154 5 1960s 111 0 1970s 119 2 1980s 127 5 1990s 123 1 2000s 102 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 We may get one or more svr storm watches today May 24 in northern IL, IN, OH per new SPC meso discussion. If things develop lets keep comments separate from the OK/KS svr thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Euro shows a 3 day heatwave across the region. Here, the 12Z Euro shows T850s climbing up to the mid 20s by early Tues and 500mb heights around 595, with surface temps in the upper 80s on sun, and the lower 90s on Mon/Tues. Dewpoints also reach the upper 60s/lower 70s. DET SUN 00Z 29-MAY 18.1 9.4 1015 76 41 0.00 581 568 SUN 06Z 29-MAY 15.2 12.4 1015 86 27 0.00 583 570 SUN 12Z 29-MAY 16.4 14.9 1016 83 59 0.00 586 572 SUN 18Z 29-MAY 23.3 18.9 1014 69 35 0.00 590 577 MON 00Z 30-MAY 24.4 21.3 1012 71 28 0.00 591 580 MON 06Z 30-MAY 21.4 21.3 1015 82 25 0.00 592 580 MON 12Z 30-MAY 20.7 20.7 1017 83 22 0.00 593 578 MON 18Z 30-MAY 25.9 21.5 1018 63 21 0.00 595 579 TUE 00Z 31-MAY 25.0 23.0 1018 71 25 0.00 595 580 TUE 06Z 31-MAY 20.4 24.6 1019 88 29 0.00 595 579 TUE 12Z 31-MAY 21.2 23.1 1021 86 32 0.00 595 577 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 More of the usual flip flopping on this afternoons Euro in the extended. Brings refreshing air in after Tuesday while 00Z had serious swampville arse all week. Hopefully something in the middle works out. High of 64 today goes in the book at 12:12 AM.. Was supposedly 43 at 11:09 AM. High last yr this date was 88 47 out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Just wanted to stop by and give my condolences to the people of Joplin, MO. Hope JoMo and the other posters from that city are ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Just wanted to stop by and give my condolences to the people of Joplin, MO. Hope JoMo and the other posters from that city are ok. Hey. You should post more in the offseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Just wanted to stop by and give my condolences to the people of Joplin, MO. Hope JoMo and the other posters from that city are ok. What's up Mike? Hope all is well. And +1 to your sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Deedler talks about a warm up... http://weatherhistor...-in-summer.html Wow, that's an impressive Euro map for Memorial Day. 20C+ 850 mb temps creeping all the way into upstate NY with a 594dm ridge centered over central OH. If correct, we would probably see mid to upper 90s in Minneapolis, low to mid 90s in Chicago, low 90s in Detroit and Toledo, around 90 in Cleveland and Columbus, with upper 80s all the way to Pittsburgh and Buffalo. LAF, the hot spot of IN, would probably check in close to 95. Although I think he's overplaying the "cool spring" meme... I realize it's been a little cooler in SE Michigan, but there hasn't been anything significantly below normal since March. April was near normal (ranging from -0.8 at Detroit to +0.4 at Flint). May, after today, should be 1 to nearly 3 degrees above normal all across the SE Michigan region -- and if the month ends with a big heat wave, it could finish 2-4 degrees above normal regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Wow, that's an impressive Euro map for Memorial Day. 20C+ 850 mb temps creeping all the way into upstate NY with a 594dm ridge centered over central OH. If correct, we would probably see mid to upper 90s in Minneapolis, low to mid 90s in Chicago, low 90s in Detroit and Toledo, around 90 in Cleveland and Columbus, with upper 80s all the way to Pittsburgh and Buffalo. LAF, the hot spot of IN, would probably check in close to 95. but I agree that we will be in the 90's if it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 but I agree that we will be in the 90's if it verifies Might be Chad's best chance for a 100º May temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Might be Chad's best chance for a 100º May temp. If we can get +25C in here then we'd have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 If we can get +25C in here then we'd have a shot. Ah, but remember LAF has a cool bias in the warm months. Or so I've heard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 I dont remember 1988 being thrown out as an analog last year, and though 2010 was hot it did not have near the extreme heat that 1988 did. You can thank muggy summer nights for the high placement (5th I think) on the hottest summers list. Oh, and 1989 was not at all a hot summer, on the contrary temps were below normal. 1987 was hot, maybe thats what you were thinking. Its really not that uncommon to have back to back hot summers. We have had very long stretches. 10 consecutive hotter than normal summers (1930-39). 14 of 15 summers were hotter than normal (1930-1944, the exception being 1940 which JUST BARELY ended up a TAD below normal). We just arent seeing 90s like we used to in Detroit. Its a stat that local global warmingistas would cringe at, seeing as though many claim increasing summer heat would be the most notable affect of GW on sensible wx. First column is days of 90F+, second column is days of 100F+ 1900s 56 0 1910s 107 3 1920s 100 0 1930s 169 14 1940s 160 1 1950s 154 5 1960s 111 0 1970s 119 2 1980s 127 5 1990s 123 1 2000s 102 0 As I said before, it's probably because we're in a decadal -NAO cycle. There was a sharp gradient in the heat last year though. One can definitely notice the influence of the -NAO even last summer with all the convective debris. Combine that with all the soil moisture left over from our recently snowy winters and that pretty screws up everything. The same thing happened in the 1970s and early 1980s in Detroit. It's pretty miserable if you want any persistent sunny/hot/dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Had a hailstorm move through town here earlier today. I was at work so I missed it, but apparently it was about quarter size. Also a funnel was spotted west of here. Definitely didn't expect anything like that today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 As I said before, it's probably because we're in a decadal -NAO cycle. There was a sharp gradient in the heat last year though. One can definitely notice the influence of the -NAO even last summer with all the convective debris. Combine that with all the soil moisture left over from our recently snowy winters and that pretty screws up everything. The same thing happened in the 1970s and early 1980s in Detroit. It's pretty miserable if you want any persistent sunny/hot/dry weather. You should probably think about moving. Houston, or better yet Brownsville may be more suitable to your wants/needs. SE MI...not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Hey. You should post more in the offseason. I don't know Hoosier. There was something like 450 active users when I was logged in earlier this afternoon. Adding another voice to the cacophony is probably not in the best interest of the forum. But hey, if I have anything interesting to add to the discussion, I won't hesitate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 What's up Mike? Hope all is well. And +1 to your sig. Yup, everything's fine Tim. Weatherwise, it's been a wet, but otherwise uninteresting spring. Best TSRA so far was a 10 minute downpour yesterday around 7pm. No hail, no wind, no svr. How 'bout you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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