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May 2011 general discussion/obs thread


Powerball

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It should be worth mentioning to all that the PSU Ewall site uses the ECMWF operational for the Day 10 while the GFS is the day 10 mean of the ensemble members. I would use the ECMWF site for the ensemble mean.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2011052112!!/

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It should be worth mentioning to all that the PSU Ewall site uses the ECMWF operational for the Day 10 while the GFS is the day 10 mean of the ensemble members. I would use the ECMWF site for the ensemble mean.

http://www.ecmwf.int...l!2011052112!!/

The ensemble mean for the Euro would argue a trough but it would not be a very strong trough at that, basically its similar to the GFS just slower.

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Yeah when you see the mean EC the differences are not all that extreme--the pattern for day 9-10+ is not all that dissimilar amongst the GFS/EC.

Yeah once you get out that far its more of a timing issue than anything, the evolution of the pattern between the 2 looks similar. I would suspect the Op Euro tones down the cut-off idea probably starting tonight.

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SVR warned cell this morning just going to miss me to the south, but hearing some thunder here right now. Seems like it's been too long since I've had a good "thundery" storm...been a dry boring May here.

What's funny is after a top 10 wettest April, we're headed towards a top 10 driest May here. Using the WL COOP for the list, which has data going back to 1901, here's the 10 driest Mays on record:

1) 0.40" - 1934

2) 0.47" - 1925

3) 0.58" - 1964

4) 0.66" - 1939

5) 0.94" - 1988

6) 1.03" - 1992

7) 1.07" - 1921

8) 1.36" - 1963

9) 1.57" - 1987

10) 1.58" - 1994

0.80" of rainfall has fallen at LAF through yesterday.

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If that is the end of March, the apocolypse has arrived lol.

Everything is going to plan. Tale end of May into the first couple of June. Then a pullback before the main assault arrives mid-late June. Then a cold July with a partial rebound in August.

Interesting prediction.

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If that is the end of March, the apocolypse has arrived lol.

Everything is going to plan. Tale end of May into the first couple of June. Then a pullback before the main assault arrives mid-late June. Then a cold July with a partial rebound in August.

I hope you're right, but I just have a feeling that this is going to be a repeat of last year where the heat gets going early and just keeps coming.

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Bow, apparently the high yesterday was 79, but I have a difficult time believing it. My mother was on the SE side of the county yesterday for a baby shower, and she said no way did the temp stay in the 70s. Did the General Mitchell observers cheat?:P

We had a SE wind all afternoon so 79 seems right on. When the winds went back south it was to late and clouded up.

Hopefully the next 4 days is the last we have to see of stretches in the 50's.. Went from one of the best springs ever for tropical last yr.. to one of the worst this yr. I'd take this spring every yr but enough is enough when approaching june.

Hard to find any fault in our weather after following that highly disturbing scene down in Joplin. I couldn't live anywhere south of the Illinois border... Useless severe wx goes up and annual snowfall shrinks from the already weak averages up here. And then there is the silly avg high temps in summer. I don't understand how people can live down south all yr. I guess if you're raised in that hell you just learned to deal with the ****ty climate.

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Storms just to north and south of here in Tipp County, both will miss, but the wind (non-t'storm version I guess) is ripping right now. Dryness here marches on though...

May precip totals across Indiana through this afternoon:

Evansville: 5.83"

Bloomington: 4.79"

South Bend: 4.15"

Terre Haute: 4.10"

Shelbyville: 3.73"

Indy: 3.28"

Muncie: 3.13"

Fort Wayne: 2.50"

Lafayette: 0.85"

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Storms just to north and south of here in Tipp County, both will miss, but the wind (non-t'storm version I guess) is ripping right now. Dryness here marches on though...

May precip totals across Indiana through this afternoon:

Evansville: 5.83"

Bloomington: 4.79"

South Bend: 4.15"

Terre Haute: 4.10"

Shelbyville: 3.73"

Indy: 3.28"

Muncie: 3.13"

Fort Wayne: 2.50"

Lafayette: 0.85"

I saw nada yesterday in Kokomo too. Amazing how things split the county.

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Storms just to north and south of here in Tipp County, both will miss, but the wind (non-t'storm version I guess) is ripping right now. Dryness here marches on though...

May precip totals across Indiana through this afternoon:

Evansville: 5.83"

Bloomington: 4.79"

South Bend: 4.15"

Terre Haute: 4.10"

Shelbyville: 3.73"

Indy: 3.28"

Muncie: 3.13"

Fort Wayne: 2.50"

Lafayette: 0.85"

Same thing here.. Split the uprights right down the middle.

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I saw nada yesterday in Kokomo too. Amazing how things split the county.

Same thing here.. Split the uprights right down the middle.

I guess we all have some bad luck then.

Updated May precip totals after yesterday. This must be payback for LAF for last December. :lol:

Evansville: 6.80"

Bloomington: 5.36"

Fort Wayne: 4.40"

Terre Haute: 4.35"

South Bend: 4.15"

Shelbyville: 4.10"

Indy: 3.80"

Muncie: 3.24"

Lafayette: 0.85"

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