SpartyOn Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 What a hoot seeing the euro and GFS being worlds apart. I guess blend the 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 It should be worth mentioning to all that the PSU Ewall site uses the ECMWF operational for the Day 10 while the GFS is the day 10 mean of the ensemble members. I would use the ECMWF site for the ensemble mean. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2011052112!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 It should be worth mentioning to all that the PSU Ewall site uses the ECMWF operational for the Day 10 while the GFS is the day 10 mean of the ensemble members. I would use the ECMWF site for the ensemble mean. http://www.ecmwf.int...l!2011052112!!/ The ensemble mean for the Euro would argue a trough but it would not be a very strong trough at that, basically its similar to the GFS just slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 The ensemble mean for the Euro would argue a trough but it would not be a very strong trough at that, basically its similar to the GFS just slower. Yeah when you see the mean EC the differences are not all that extreme--the pattern for day 9-10+ is not all that dissimilar amongst the GFS/EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Yeah when you see the mean EC the differences are not all that extreme--the pattern for day 9-10+ is not all that dissimilar amongst the GFS/EC. Yeah once you get out that far its more of a timing issue than anything, the evolution of the pattern between the 2 looks similar. I would suspect the Op Euro tones down the cut-off idea probably starting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 We've actually risen 3 degrees from 69 to 72 over the past few minutes following the passage of a weak gust front from the weakening storms to the west. Expected the opposite to happen, so that's kind of interesting lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 now this is cool....don't think I've ever seen gravity waves like this on BREF/VEL before, pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 now this is cool....don't think I've ever seen gravity waves like this on BREF/VEL before, pretty awesome. wow that is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 SVR warned cell this morning just going to miss me to the south, but hearing some thunder here right now. Seems like it's been too long since I've had a good "thundery" storm...been a dry boring May here. What's funny is after a top 10 wettest April, we're headed towards a top 10 driest May here. Using the WL COOP for the list, which has data going back to 1901, here's the 10 driest Mays on record: 1) 0.40" - 1934 2) 0.47" - 1925 3) 0.58" - 1964 4) 0.66" - 1939 5) 0.94" - 1988 6) 1.03" - 1992 7) 1.07" - 1921 8) 1.36" - 1963 9) 1.57" - 1987 10) 1.58" - 1994 0.80" of rainfall has fallen at LAF through yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 12z op GFS and Euro have both eliminated any cutoff upper low over the Ohio Valley, instead bringing nice warm air into the midwest by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 12z op GFS and Euro have both eliminated any cutoff upper low over the Ohio Valley, instead bringing nice warm air into the midwest by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 The local NWS mets are riding the Euro FTL. Looks like the GFS has won... Euro has given in to its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted May 22, 2011 Share Posted May 22, 2011 Wow at the GFS and EURO towards the end of May/beginning of March. Come again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Had some nice gust this evening. I was estimating 55-60 while talking with, tropical. 0807 PM TSTM WND GST MILWAUKEE INTERNATIONAL 42.94N 87.90W 05/22/2011 M61.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Had some nice gust this evening. I was estimating 55-60 while talking with, tropical. 0807 PM TSTM WND GST MILWAUKEE INTERNATIONAL 42.94N 87.90W 05/22/2011 M61.00 MPH MILWAUKEE WI ASOS Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 If that is the end of March, the apocolypse has arrived lol. Everything is going to plan. Tale end of May into the first couple of June. Then a pullback before the main assault arrives mid-late June. Then a cold July with a partial rebound in August. Interesting prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 If that is the end of March, the apocolypse has arrived lol. Everything is going to plan. Tale end of May into the first couple of June. Then a pullback before the main assault arrives mid-late June. Then a cold July with a partial rebound in August. I hope you're right, but I just have a feeling that this is going to be a repeat of last year where the heat gets going early and just keeps coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Sunday, May 22nd: Hi: 86F Lo: 62F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 22MPH Rainfall: 0.41" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Bow, apparently the high yesterday was 79, but I have a difficult time believing it. My mother was on the SE side of the county yesterday for a baby shower, and she said no way did the temp stay in the 70s. Did the General Mitchell observers cheat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Latest GFS and Euro both still showing an extended summer-like pattern around here beginning Sunday. The Euro is downright hot early next week with 850 temps above 28C reaching up into Iowa. Thank goodness that awful-looking perma-upper low is gone from the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Must be the dry bubble that we've been in this May , but as usual, LAF leading the state of Indiana with 85º at 3PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Bow, apparently the high yesterday was 79, but I have a difficult time believing it. My mother was on the SE side of the county yesterday for a baby shower, and she said no way did the temp stay in the 70s. Did the General Mitchell observers cheat? We had a SE wind all afternoon so 79 seems right on. When the winds went back south it was to late and clouded up. Hopefully the next 4 days is the last we have to see of stretches in the 50's.. Went from one of the best springs ever for tropical last yr.. to one of the worst this yr. I'd take this spring every yr but enough is enough when approaching june. Hard to find any fault in our weather after following that highly disturbing scene down in Joplin. I couldn't live anywhere south of the Illinois border... Useless severe wx goes up and annual snowfall shrinks from the already weak averages up here. And then there is the silly avg high temps in summer. I don't understand how people can live down south all yr. I guess if you're raised in that hell you just learned to deal with the ****ty climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Storms just to north and south of here in Tipp County, both will miss, but the wind (non-t'storm version I guess) is ripping right now. Dryness here marches on though... May precip totals across Indiana through this afternoon: Evansville: 5.83" Bloomington: 4.79" South Bend: 4.15" Terre Haute: 4.10" Shelbyville: 3.73" Indy: 3.28" Muncie: 3.13" Fort Wayne: 2.50" Lafayette: 0.85" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Monday, May 23rd: Hi: 78F Lo: 61F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 23MPH Rainfall: Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Flip flopped back to Baby Powder advisory starting sunday on the euro. 49 degrees this AM is feeling refreshingly chilly after the last two days of 79. Hopefully we get some good news from, JOMO today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Storms just to north and south of here in Tipp County, both will miss, but the wind (non-t'storm version I guess) is ripping right now. Dryness here marches on though... May precip totals across Indiana through this afternoon: Evansville: 5.83" Bloomington: 4.79" South Bend: 4.15" Terre Haute: 4.10" Shelbyville: 3.73" Indy: 3.28" Muncie: 3.13" Fort Wayne: 2.50" Lafayette: 0.85" I saw nada yesterday in Kokomo too. Amazing how things split the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Storms just to north and south of here in Tipp County, both will miss, but the wind (non-t'storm version I guess) is ripping right now. Dryness here marches on though... May precip totals across Indiana through this afternoon: Evansville: 5.83" Bloomington: 4.79" South Bend: 4.15" Terre Haute: 4.10" Shelbyville: 3.73" Indy: 3.28" Muncie: 3.13" Fort Wayne: 2.50" Lafayette: 0.85" Same thing here.. Split the uprights right down the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Natural AC today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 I saw nada yesterday in Kokomo too. Amazing how things split the county. Same thing here.. Split the uprights right down the middle. I guess we all have some bad luck then. Updated May precip totals after yesterday. This must be payback for LAF for last December. Evansville: 6.80" Bloomington: 5.36" Fort Wayne: 4.40" Terre Haute: 4.35" South Bend: 4.15" Shelbyville: 4.10" Indy: 3.80" Muncie: 3.24" Lafayette: 0.85" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Here is a photo shot last night from a buddy of mine. I shot some video of this exact cloud formation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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