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May 2011 general discussion/obs thread


Powerball

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Yeah no kidding, as long as we have storms, then I'll take a cooler summer.

I feel the same way about winter.

As long as we have snowstorms I'll take a warmer one.

But yeah, this decadal cycle we're in now sucks if you want a sunny/drier/warm summer versus a cool/cloudy/stormy summer. The 1960s and 1990s period were the best decadal cycles for my type of summer weather.

Last year was warm, but boy did the -NAO have its say, and you could tell with all the convective debris we had and with the tight gradient in severe weather activity. The only real "dry" or "sunny" heat wave we had was at the end of August and only one day was without any precipitation in the area. The numerous nights of overcast skies I bet skewed the numbers in some locales as well.

Summer and severe weather is my big thing though, which is also why I could never see myself enjoying east coast weather, because of the lack of severe weather. I only like winter because of the snowstorms (and lake effect), but if there are no snowstorms (or lake effect) then quite frankly you can shove it. I'm probably in the minority though, which is fine.

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I feel the same way about winter.

As long as we have snowstorms I'll take a warmer one.

But yeah, this decadal cycle we're in now sucks if you want a sunny/drier/warm summer versus a cool/cloudy/stormy summer. The 1960s and 1990s period were the best decadal cycles for my type of summer weather.

Last year was warm, but boy did the -NAO have its say, and you could tell with all the convective debris we had and with the tight gradient in severe weather activity. The only real "dry" or "sunny" heat wave we had was at the end of August and only one day was without any precipitation in the area. The numerous nights of overcast skies I bet skewed the numbers in some locales as well.

Summer and severe weather is my big thing though, which is also why I could never see myself enjoying east coast weather, because of the lack of severe weather. I only like winter because of the snowstorms (and lake effect), but if there are no snowstorms (or lake effect) then quite frankly you can shove it. I'm probably in the minority though, which is fine.

not in the minority as I agree.

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not in the minority as I agree.

I was seriosuly taken aback by Detroit having a top 5 warmest summer in 2010, and it surpassed 1988 no less which had more extreme heatwaves.

It just seemed like something was missing last summer, it was very warm but it didn't seem top 5 worthy. It was probably because of the few sub-80 degree days we had, but we didin't have any extreme heatwaves (no days above 95*F) or real sunny/hot/dry periods (only 9 days had a sky cover of 3 or less) either like you would expect in top 5 warmest summer, so it was strange all around. Granted a lot of those 80+/>90 degree days were supposed to be 90+ degree days but they were disrupted by stratocumulus or convective debris.

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I was seriosuly taken aback by Detroit having a top 5 warmest summer in 2010, and it surpassed 1988 no less which had more extreme heatwaves.

It just seemed like something was missing last summer, it was very warm but it didn't seem top 5 worthy. It was probably because of the few sub-80 degree days we had, but we didin't have any extreme heatwaves (no days above 95*F) or real sunny/hot/dry periods (only 9 days had a sky cover of 3 or less) either like you would expect in top 5 warmest summer, so it was strange all around. Granted a lot of those 80+/>90 degree days were supposed to be 90+ degree days but they were disrupted by stratocumulus or convective debris.

It was just consistently hot. But as u said the cloud cover made it bearable and didn't allow the temp to get too hot. It seemed we had alot of overnight/leftover mcs debris in the mornings that limited the temp and more noticeably limited the humidity we felt. It was impressive the dry spell we had and so far this year its the opposite .

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conditions are sick right now, almost dead silent wind, cool but not cold temps and the thickest fog i've ever seen. this fog make deep snow pack + intense waa fog look weak. pavement is bone dry but if you get under a large tree, condensation on the branches is resulting in tons of dripping soaking the pavement beneath, very cool stuff.

Sounds pretty cool. Haven't seen fog here in a long time. Was a clear and calm evening here. Temps stayed in the mid to upper 60s well after dark.

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This. Worst summer ever...we went the entire month of July without a freaking Slight Risk.

Yeah 09 was bad, I had maybe 3 days of thunderstorms the entire summer while at work, I have probably had that many in the last 2 weeks at work.

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Yeah 09 was bad, I had maybe 3 days of thunderstorms the entire summer while at work, I have probably had that many in the last 2 weeks at work.

09's fail ended with a bang in Ontario with 18 tornadoes, 4 strong, as the largest tornado outbreak in Canadian history. Fortunately, I was working and was completely oblivious to the fact tornadoes were tearing up property from here to Toronto. I wouldn't actually, you know, want to track and chase an event like that. I'd much rather just work.

I've successfully missed every tornado outbreak in Ontario since 2004 thanks to being out of area, country, or at work. Also, while everyone felt the 5.0 quake last June, naturally I didn't feel it... even though I was sitting at the table.

:scooter:

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09's fail ended with a bang in Ontario with 18 tornadoes, 4 strong, as the largest tornado outbreak in Canadian history. Fortunately, I was working and was completely oblivious to the fact tornadoes were tearing up property from here to Toronto. I wouldn't actually, you know, want to track and chase an event like that. I'd much rather just work.

I've successfully missed every tornado outbreak in Ontario since 2004 thanks to being out of area, country, or at work. Also, while everyone felt the 5.0 quake last June, naturally I didn't feel it... even though I was sitting at the table.

:scooter:

Yeah that outbreak in the GTA was a pretty good one.

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Yeah 09 was bad, I had maybe 3 days of thunderstorms the entire summer while at work, I have probably had that many in the last 2 weeks at work.

The Whole month of August I average 95 hr work weeks. It never stormed/Rained enough to keep us from working but on the flip side it was beautiful with temps in the mid 70s all summer and a ton of sunny clean days.

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I was seriosuly taken aback by Detroit having a top 5 warmest summer in 2010, and it surpassed 1988 no less which had more extreme heatwaves.

It just seemed like something was missing last summer, it was very warm but it didn't seem top 5 worthy. It was probably because of the few sub-80 degree days we had, but we didin't have any extreme heatwaves (no days above 95*F) or real sunny/hot/dry periods (only 9 days had a sky cover of 3 or less) either like you would expect in top 5 warmest summer, so it was strange all around. Granted a lot of those 80+/>90 degree days were supposed to be 90+ degree days but they were disrupted by stratocumulus or convective debris.

It was just so humid last Summer that many nights were quite warm allowing the average for the day to be well above normal. It's one of those classic Summers that were very warm due to overnight lows. There were many nights with lows in the 70s but the highs were only in the mid 80s.

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How accurate is the CPC with seasonal outlooks? It's showing the turd blue over us all through summer.

Basically hit and miss.

The euro monthlies have trended in the same direction as well. Thus cooler with each new update. They show no above normal temps in this region till October and November but only 0.5 to 1.0 above normal.

Where does one find the 16 day Euro?

Too bad i did not see that run to really know how much of that he made up?

whoops? :P

Why *most* here know better then to take anything he says serious.

I think a few have 2009 summer mixed up with 2008? :unsure: Other then August the summer of 2008 was pretty active despite not being exactly hot. Temps were near normal/slightly below. I think there was only 2 days at/above 90. A number of times temps fell into the low/mid 40s though in all three months. This was the year we got raked by the tropical systems in September that brought around a foot of rain to some areas from here back to Chicago/N.IN and the insane gusts in Ohio/KY etc.

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09's fail ended with a bang in Ontario with 18 tornadoes, 4 strong, as the largest tornado outbreak in Canadian history. Fortunately, I was working and was completely oblivious to the fact tornadoes were tearing up property from here to Toronto. I wouldn't actually, you know, want to track and chase an event like that. I'd much rather just work.

I've successfully missed every tornado outbreak in Ontario since 2004 thanks to being out of area, country, or at work. Also, while everyone felt the 5.0 quake last June, naturally I didn't feel it... even though I was sitting at the table.

:scooter:

That was another fail for SE Michigan seeing as that day started with 5/30/30 probabilities from the SPC, and ended with a few damaging wind reports over by Port Huron. :axe:

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Sparty and all the rest of you,

Dave Murray, Fox St. louis met posted his summer outlook in a detailed animated video. This guy is very solid on his seasonal outlooks, and although it is for STL, it does give most of us an idea as to what one might expect. Interesting development is the talk of drought emerging and expanding north into the fall and possibly winter...mentions heat, June possibly the hottest month, The first half of July hot and a cooler Aug. Check it out, grew up watching this man and he is a very good met, one of the best in the biz. Enjoy!

http://www.fox2now.com/news/ktvi-2010-summer-long-range-forecast-dave-murray-052010,0,6991717.story

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conditions are sick right now, almost dead silent wind, cool but not cold temps and the thickest fog i've ever seen. this fog make deep snow pack + intense waa fog look weak. pavement is bone dry but if you get under a large tree, condensation on the branches is resulting in tons of dripping soaking the pavement beneath, very cool stuff.

Sox game was crazy last night...one minute there was dense fog and the next minute it was practically gone.

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It was just so humid last Summer that many nights were quite warm allowing the average for the day to be well above normal. It's one of those classic Summers that were very warm due to overnight lows. There were many nights with lows in the 70s but the highs were only in the mid 80s.

Yeah last summer was more of a consistent heat than extreme heat, although there was a pretty good hot spell mixed in. Reminded me very much of the previous winter around here...consistently cold but nothing extreme.

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Not a cloud in the sky again! Left the lakefront @ 1pm with a temp of 50 and fog..home about 4.5 miles inland a perfect 65. Been waiting for this date for a long time..can we do it.. oct 20th through may 20th with no high temps in the 70's.

Pretty disappointing euro up here in the long range...it is the long range so yeah....just enjoy our best looking weekend of the yr.. hopefully its a dry one with all the storms down in the chicago area.

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The fog was amazing last night... hopefully tonight's show is just as good or better

DENSE FOG PATCHES REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

---------------------------------------

==DISCUSSION==

DENSE FOG PATCHES OVER LAND HAVE ALL LIFTED BY LATE THIS MORNING AND

EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, DENSE FOG OVER LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY

WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE SHORELINES ALL AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE

INLAND AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

IN ADDITION, DENSE FOG PATCHES ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER

SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT WINDS, MOIST AIR AND RELATIVELY

CLEAR SKIES.

END/OSPC

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