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May 2011 general discussion/obs thread


Powerball

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Hmm...I havent really heard much about El Nino, but if indeed we do enter one, keep in mind, a weak El Nino bodes well for yet another cold, snowy winter. A strong El Nino is the one with the reputation of having a torchy winter with low snowfall, but even then, there have been exceptions to the rule, most notably the last strong El Nino, 2009-10.

Im curious what you mean "screwed on so many different levels". From a karma standpoint, yes we are due for a crummy winter. But aside from that, there is no other reason to believe it will happen, not in the pattern we are in. In the past there were many occasions were we had a real stinker winter following a real banner year. But we are in unchartered waters now, having 3 of the past 4 winters exceed 65" at DTW, that has NEVER happened before, so its basically a learning experience for all. Snowfall is definitely increasing in the Great Lakes, there is no way to deny that, so I just dont see the chances high for a real bad winter. If I made a list of pros and cons for winter 2011-12 being an average to above average snow season, I would have several pros with just one con (the con being that karma says were overdue for a stinker).

Similar to the 97/98 season

In the 40's and 50's we had like 15 years straight horrible winters. Why cant we have 15 straight years of Fantastic winters? Its possible

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Hmm...I havent really heard much about El Nino, but if indeed we do enter one, keep in mind, a weak El Nino bodes well for yet another cold, snowy winter. A strong El Nino is the one with the reputation of having a torchy winter with low snowfall, but even then, there have been exceptions to the rule, most notably the last strong El Nino, 2009-10.

Im curious what you mean "screwed on so many different levels". From a karma standpoint, yes we are due for a crummy winter. But aside from that, there is no other reason to believe it will happen, not in the pattern we are in. In the past there were many occasions were we had a real stinker winter following a real banner year. But we are in unchartered waters now, having 3 of the past 4 winters exceed 65" at DTW, that has NEVER happened before, so its basically a learning experience for all. Snowfall is definitely increasing in the Great Lakes, there is no way to deny that, so I just dont see the chances high for a real bad winter. If I made a list of pros and cons for winter 2011-12 being an average to above average snow season, I would have several pros with just one con (the con being that karma says were overdue for a stinker).

Its coming! (neutral right now) Its early in the ball game though. It will be interesting to see how the pattern will change in the coming weeks/month.

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Its been down right depressing here! Since Sunday

Sunday 58 and rain

Monday 54 Cloudy with Drizzle and damp

Tuesday 53 Cloudy with Drizzle and damp

Wednesday 59 Cloudy with Drizzle and damp

Thursday finally 60+ and maybe some sun...

We did set some record minimum highs this week!

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Its been down right depressing here! Since Sunday

Sunday 58 and rain

Monday 54 Cloudy with Drizzle and damp

Tuesday 53 Cloudy with Drizzle and damp

Wednesday 59 Cloudy with Drizzle and damp

Thursday finally 60+ and maybe some sun...

We did set some record minimum highs this week!

Thur: Showers 72

Fri: PM Storms 83

Sat: Rain/ 58

Sun: Rain/ 44

Mon: Few Showers/Clouds/ 46

Tues: Rain 51

Wes: Rain/T-Showers/ 62

Thur: So far Very Cloudy and off and on Showers 63

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No question on this one. Point forecast for us throws up Burlington, WI obs. McHenry County moved into the sixth largest county position in Illinois with the 2010 census data coming in at over 300,000 residents (just under a 19% increase from 2000 data). Not sure if that serves as any degree of justification.

Do they need an air or heliport to establish one? If so, I see two potential candidate sites:

Galt to the north

http://www.airnav.com/airport/10C

or LITH to the southeast

http://www.airnav.com/airport/3CK

If they could put it anywhere, put it smack dab in the middle of that donut hole at the county government complex in Woodstock. They just hired a new EMA director, perhaps we could present the concept to him as an initiative to pursue early in his new tenure.

From what I have seen they're usually located at an airport, but I do know of some that are not.

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Clack of Thunder out of one of these showers. My God is it nasty humid out too!

Point/Zone forecasts for the OC are looking better and better!!! looking at the possibility of a 3 day stretch of 80s..WOW then we cool into the mid/lower 70s...what a shame! :-( lol

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I agree with this, and Sunday/Monday look good for sure around here. Someone might want to start a thread, unless we're gonna extend the current one.

Probably could use another thread, as its in a different area than the current thread.

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Cool summer + storms = never works out.

2009 was a decent year for severe storms considering the cool temps, and we've almost hit our average # of tornadoes in Wisconsin this year already, with the 15 reported tors on April 10th. The number of severe weather events are likely much less in cooler summers, but those events can be prolific enough to make up for it.

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2009 was a decent year for severe storms considering the cool temps, and we've almost hit our average # of tornadoes in Wisconsin this year already, with the 15 reported tors on April 10th. The number of severe weather events are likely much less in cooler summers, but those events can be prolific enough to make up for it.

Wrong.

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How accurate is the CPC with seasonal outlooks? It's showing the turd blue over us all through summer.

They have been good as of late but I (and Im sure many of us) have seen them bust a few times too. Just because your in the blue doesn't mean you will have a garbage Summer either.

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Cool summer + storms = never works out.

That's not a true statement. We had a whole lot of rain with t-storms here in the Summer of 2000 which was quite cool. It was a cool and wet Summer. If you're talking about severe weather only, then you probably have a point although I don't have any statistics to back that up. I will say though, that the '90s had some awesome derechos come through here that we haven't seen since. All the derechos the past decade or so have been mostly south of here. Those hot Summers of the '90s were perfect for the "ring of fire" to set up near the canadian border. This type of set up is what you won't get in a cool summer.

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conditions are sick right now, almost dead silent wind, cool but not cold temps and the thickest fog i've ever seen. this fog make deep snow pack + intense waa fog look weak. pavement is bone dry but if you get under a large tree, condensation on the branches is resulting in tons of dripping soaking the pavement beneath, very cool stuff.

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Similar to the 97/98 season

In the 40's and 50's we had like 15 years straight horrible winters. Why cant we have 15 straight years of Fantastic winters? Its possible

97/98? YUCK. No thank you, do NOT want to see that winter ever again lol. Funny this is, we were fortunate to have below normal snow, as much of the east coast had nearly non-existent snow that winter.

We went 20, yes TWENTY, consecutive winters without 45" of snowfall in a single season, from winter 1931-32 through winter 1950-51. In those 20 years, we topped 40" just 5 times (42.6" in 33-34, 42.8" in 38-39, 44.4" in 42-43, 42.8" in 49-50, and 42.2" in 50-51). In those 20 years, 8 winters did see 1"+ snowcover days exceed the average of 50, but still. And to top it all off, once we finally had a good snowy winter (58.6" in 51-52) we were punished by the winter of 1952-53 which was very possibly the mildest, most snow-free winter of record on a nationwide basis, and into Canada as well.

That was just the pattern/rut we were in at the time. Once something good did happen, you were really punished soon after. Now that we are in that 1970s-80s type pattern (a little less cold but more snow this time around), while I cant necessarily see 15 winters in a row of above normal snow (there was the infamous stinker of '82-83 and to a lesser extent '79-80 in an otherwise great stretch) we just seem to be in that type of stretch where if we do get a bad winter, it wont really be THAT bad. Perhaps our punishment in this snowy cycle was 2005-06 and 2006-07, (still a far cry from those futile '40s winters, but 2006-07 was destined to become one had we not been saved by an unusual amount of LES).... and we still have several more snowy seasons lined up, ready and waiting :thumbsup: Again I must specify, we are seeing snow the likes of which we have no old records/cycles/etc to compare things to, so it may be an interesting ride ahead. 5 winters in the past 9 years eclipsed 60".....10 winters in the previous 122 years had eclipsed 60".

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