River Card Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 This comparison to summer 2009 is a tad extreme..IMHO. Ill tell ya what..Ive seen 50s on Memorial Day followed by upper 90s by the 4th of July. Summer will come!! Relax! Really didn't mind summer 2009..with the exception that the cut-offs always wreaked the weekends and Mon-Thurs was insanely pleasant and beautiful. If we just so happen to repeat 2009 (long shot!!! Big time) lets pray the turd weather happens during the work week! Even Tom Skilling suggested on last night's 7 day feature that looking out 2 weeks that this may be the last of the long lasting cool downs, he seems to think we are all clear for warmer weather on a consistent basis. A met from STL CBS affiliate had a summer outlook calling for much hotter and drier weather overall, however, Dave Murray, from Fox STL, and who is very sharp and was money on the spring outlook will post his summer outlook this Thu at 900 pm. If he goes hotter and drier then you can almost lock it in. Let's see what happens, but peeking ahead looks like it might get hot near Memorial Day weekend..we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 med/long range GFS really wants to keep the baro zone in the region which would mean consistent storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Strong thunderstorms moving in from the southeast here... kind of a weird situation. Frequent thunder and lightning in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 18, 2011 Author Share Posted May 18, 2011 And now GRR is talking about this same crap happening again next week. UGH!!! I'll be so glad when we get out of this decadal crap and back into the pattern we had in the 1990s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Speaking of METAR sites, we really need one in Woodstock. No question on this one. Point forecast for us throws up Burlington, WI obs. McHenry County moved into the sixth largest county position in Illinois with the 2010 census data coming in at over 300,000 residents (just under a 19% increase from 2000 data). Not sure if that serves as any degree of justification. Do they need an air or heliport to establish one? If so, I see two potential candidate sites: Galt to the north http://www.airnav.com/airport/10C or LITH to the southeast http://www.airnav.com/airport/3CK If they could put it anywhere, put it smack dab in the middle of that donut hole at the county government complex in Woodstock. They just hired a new EMA director, perhaps we could present the concept to him as an initiative to pursue early in his new tenure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Strong thunderstorms moving in from the southeast here... kind of a weird situation. Frequent thunder and lightning in the distance. Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 238 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011 OHZ020>022-031>033-181945- MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA...WOOSTER... CANTON...YOUNGSTOWN 238 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011 THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND HAIL WILL BE MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH 4PM. RADAR INDICATED THE HEAVIEST STORMS WERE FROM CARROLLTON TO CANTON TO LODI AND FROM LISBON TO ALLIANCE TO MOGADORE. INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AND HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH DIAMETER WILL BE ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS $ THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 And now GRR is talking about this same crap happening again next week. UGH!!! I'll be so glad when we get out of this decadal crap and back into the pattern we had in the 1990s. Omega round 2!! Get ready for it! Chilly air with another warm up in time for memorial day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Omega round 2!! Get ready for it! Chilly air with another warm up in time for memorial day! Just had a panic in covering several yards of concrete. with a line of thunder showers Ina-dating the northern half of Oakland, Cant buy a break... I love storms but this is ridiculous I think its 8-9 days straight of rain. Now again next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Just had a panic in covering several yards of concrete. with a line of thunder showers Ina-dating the northern half of Oakland, Cant buy a break... I love storms but this is ridiculous I think its 8-9 days straight of rain. Now again next week? as long as its 65+ im happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 as long as its 65+ happy. Before you know it, its September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Here's my summer outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Before you know it, its September Yea but ya can't have spring/summers like last year every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Yea but ya can't have spring/summers like last year every year. Dont get me wrong I dont want heat waves...there sometimes a little rough in my line of work. I want "normal" weather with maybe rain once or twice a week, not everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 [que name=dmc76' timestamp='1305748277' post='695208] Dont get me wrong I dont want heat waves...there sometimes a little rough in my line of work. I want "normal" weather with maybe rain once or twice a week, not everyday Yea i hear ya. We were dodging bullets here on the eastside until Sunday afternoon. Once it warms up for good hopefully we wont be seeing anymore all day cold rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Yea i hear ya. We were dodging bullets here on the eastaide until Sunday afternoon. Once it warms up for good hopefully we wont be seeing anymore all day cold rains Looks like rain chances from sat night thru Tuesday with possible a couple severe weather threats to keep in eye on this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Good news...RIP La Nina it has been taken to the back of the shed and shot dead finally. Now certainly can see the effects lingering into mid to late June. Hopefully we can begin the making's a of an El Nino now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 And now GRR is talking about this same crap happening again next week. UGH!!! I'll be so glad when we get out of this decadal crap and back into the pattern we had in the 1990s. I don't think we will end up with an upper low over our area if that's what you are implying, even a cool down looks passive at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 So what is exactly causing this low to just spin and not move along? Se ridge? Nao block? This normal for neutral enso? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 So what is exactly causing this low to just spin and not move along? Se ridge? Nao block? This normal for neutral enso? Cut off from the Jet Stream and there is a strong block across Southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 And now GRR is talking about this same crap happening again next week. UGH!!! I'll be so glad when we get out of this decadal crap and back into the pattern we had in the 1990s. BITE. YOUR. TONGUE!!! lol, I admit its insane that we havent seen sun in nearly a week in late spring, but I can deal with some extra gloominess if it means being in a pattern similar to the late 1970s when it comes to winter. This was something Bill Deedler pointed out a few years back and he mentioned it again on his blog I think, we really seem to be in a pattern like the late '70s to early '80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 BITE. YOUR. TONGUE!!! lol, I admit its insane that we havent seen sun in nearly a week in late spring, but I can deal with some extra gloominess if it means being in a pattern similar to the late 1970s when it comes to winter. This was something Bill Deedler pointed out a few years back and he mentioned it again on his blog I think, we really seem to be in a pattern like the late '70s to early '80s. Is Deedler suggesting an active winter coming up due to this spring matching some criteria of years past? The guy is awesome, sad to see him retiring, but can certainly see why you guys have enjoyed his write ups, very smart man and he seems very likeable as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Here's my summer outlook. I'm not doing a summer outlook but I have to say I will be surprised if I'm warmer than areas to the south (relative to average of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I'm not doing a summer outlook but I have to say I will be surprised if I'm warmer than areas to the south (relative to average of course). Looks a Nino winter map. You don't have to do an outlook, just ride Chad's +10º JJA departure and you're set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 BITE. YOUR. TONGUE!!! lol, I admit its insane that we havent seen sun in nearly a week in late spring, but I can deal with some extra gloominess if it means being in a pattern similar to the late 1970s when it comes to winter. This was something Bill Deedler pointed out a few years back and he mentioned it again on his blog I think, we really seem to be in a pattern like the late '70s to early '80s. No....bang your head on the wall. By fall there is the possibility of entering a El Nino! I know this isnt the thread for Winter predictions but I can really see us getting screwed on many different levels. Its a wait and see..But we are due! Back to May (Spring) I haven't seen my zone forecast look so good since last September! Very late Spring early Summer looking! This weekend will be a gem and the carry over into the following week looks just amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 No....bang your head on the wall. By fall there is the possibility of entering a El Nino! I know this isnt the thread for Winter predictions but I can really see us getting screwed on many different levels. Its a wait and see..But we are due! It should bode well for a sunnier/drier summer next year IF (I*F*) a crappy winter is in the offing. While not the causation, high soil moisture content from the previous winter tends to correlate with cool and/or stormy (thus more cloud debris/stratus-filled) summers. See the 1990s and 1960s for the exact opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Wednesday, May 18th: Hi: 57F Lo: 50F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 8MPH Rainfall: 0.06" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Looks a Nino winter map. You don't have to do an outlook, just ride Chad's +10º JJA departure and you're set. More like just ride the under on his map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Is Deedler suggesting an active winter coming up due to this spring matching some criteria of years past? The guy is awesome, sad to see him retiring, but can certainly see why you guys have enjoyed his write ups, very smart man and he seems very likeable as well. Well he hasnt really mentioned anything about the next winter persay, he has just made reference over the past several years how he really feels we are in a late-1970s type of pattern regarding consecutive harsh winters. Im sure he will post some insite as we near the next winter. Heres the link to the blog he started since his retirement. Yes its titled SE MI but it surely will have insight for our entire region. http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 More like just ride the under on his map.. Nah, I'm preparing on cooking my morning eggs on the sidewalk this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 No....bang your head on the wall. By fall there is the possibility of entering a El Nino! I know this isnt the thread for Winter predictions but I can really see us getting screwed on many different levels. Its a wait and see..But we are due! Back to May (Spring) I haven't seen my zone forecast look so good since last September! Very late Spring early Summer looking! This weekend will be a gem and the carry over into the following week looks just amazing! Hmm...I havent really heard much about El Nino, but if indeed we do enter one, keep in mind, a weak El Nino bodes well for yet another cold, snowy winter. A strong El Nino is the one with the reputation of having a torchy winter with low snowfall, but even then, there have been exceptions to the rule, most notably the last strong El Nino, 2009-10. Im curious what you mean "screwed on so many different levels". From a karma standpoint, yes we are due for a crummy winter. But aside from that, there is no other reason to believe it will happen, not in the pattern we are in. In the past there were many occasions were we had a real stinker winter following a real banner year. But we are in unchartered waters now, having 3 of the past 4 winters exceed 65" at DTW, that has NEVER happened before, so its basically a learning experience for all. Snowfall is definitely increasing in the Great Lakes, there is no way to deny that, so I just dont see the chances high for a real bad winter. If I made a list of pros and cons for winter 2011-12 being an average to above average snow season, I would have several pros with just one con (the con being that karma says were overdue for a stinker). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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