Harry Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Shot in the dark? Really though, I don't see a "technical" explanation of why on his blog. http://blogs.wlfi.com/2011/05/06/33902/ I mean I can see the mean ridge setting up shop here for most of the summer, but the 80.1º call is pretty aggressive. A full degree higher than the hottest summer on record here? Yeah... Considering the moisture content of the soil in the region and where the dryness is ( W.TX on west to AZ ) i would say that call is indeed a shot in the dark call. We are gonna have to do some quick/massive drying out in a large chunk on the region on down into the OH/TN Valley to see the *that* heat ridge set up close/over us. Right now i would say that is favored in the southern Rockies east to perhaps W.KS/W.OK and Texas west of say Houston/Dallas. Heat ridges love them some drought in summer. HOWEVER we could end up with ( what Bowme calls ) a swamp ass summer and thus a summer with high humidity holding temps up at night. Thus we could see the Bermuda high/ridge extend a bit further west then normal but this is more tropical and thus a sort of different animal then the other ridge which often brings highest heat ( especialy during the day ) and not so much moisture/humidity as the Bermuda high/ridge brings. I would favor the Bermuda type ridge over the other. Will probably see a decent contrast in the region with some ending up below normal while not far away end up above somewhere say between the OH River and up this way. Doesn't mean there wont be any heat/humidity north of here or cool spells south of there either. Better chances for more heat the farther west you go and cooler the farther east. That is my thoughts anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Wow turd continues next week as we never get into the warm sector this weekend with more clouds and NE winds next week. 12z EURO has us in the low 40s on Tuesday. Lovely. I'm about ready to write this summer off as worse than 2009. At least May of 2009 was halfway decent. More than half the trees are STILL bare here. Shortest summer ever. It is only May, but all I have to say is I will be one disappointed person if we get to Mid-June when I go to Maine for vacation, and we still haven't had significant severe weather (it's hard to count last week given the struggle we had to get us to swampy air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Wow turd continues next week as we never get into the warm sector this weekend with more clouds and NE winds next week. 12z EURO has us in the low 40s on Tuesday. Lovely. I'm about ready to write this summer off as worse than 2009. At least May of 2009 was halfway decent. More than half the trees are STILL bare here. Shortest summer ever. Btw, are those low 40s highs? It better not be, or else I think I'll move south right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Not quite as swampy azz next week on the 12z euro.. Kinna strange (well not really) as it as it has been pretty locked in to a system cutting way west of here and now has it going to LAF. Rather the heat held off until Memorial Day weekend anyways. Not a cloud in the sky again and a beautiful 53 degrees. Could do without the relentless breeziness. This has been one windy spring. I guess that's to be expected with the constant stream of low pressure systems, but it is annoying as it usually coincides with the cold air and rain, making it that much more unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 OKC 90s or MI 40s? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 It is only May, but all I have to say is I will be one disappointed person if we get to Mid-June when I go to Maine for vacation, and we still haven't had significant severe weather (it's hard to count last week given the struggle we had to get us to swampy air. Sorry I said Tuesday in my earlier post -- meant Wednesday. But the 12Z 198 HR Euro 2M temp map has a swath of 40-45F surface temps extending E of a line from GRB to FDL to JVL to ORD. Once you cross Lake Michigan, this temperature swath moves NE and then E across Northern Lower Michigan. The 50F line starts just north of GRB and extends SW to DBQ then straight S through Iowa, E to about PIA then NE to the southern tip of Lake Michigan. From there it cuts NE to GRR and then east across Lower Michigan to about DET. 850 mb temps for this time period are around 4c and the Low is sitting just N of IND. Theme of the year. Can't get those Lows or warm fronts north of us. I think the trend holds through summer. The 40s for highs will wane to 50s and eventually low 60s by July. If you like overcast, showery rain and cold temperatures all summer with brief sunny days with NE winds in between, this is the summer for you. I bet this summer makes 2009 look like a beach vacation. As for a swampazz humid summer, I don't think that will hold true either. The NE fetch we look to develop will pull cool, dry and less humid air down from Hudson Bay. The more humid air will setup close to the permanent quasi-stationary front that will be found across central IL and IN all summer. This might be one of those years where September is the warmest month all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 lol @ long range calls based on 198hr Euro maps. The only thing more boring than long range calls are long range calls based on a single op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 lol @ long range calls based on 198hr Euro maps. The only thing more boring than long range calls are long range calls based on a single op run. When the EURO has shut down the warmth with a cold run this year, when has it came back? Name once. The trend has been when the EURO shuts down the warmth, it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 When the EURO has shut down the warmth with a cold run this year, when has it came back? Name once. The trend has been when the EURO shuts down the warmth, it sticks. Alek does have a point, even the Euro has made PLENTY of mistakes a week ahead of time. Things can and will change by the run. I think the reality will be pretty close to the middle for next weeks system cutting west of us and moving to LAF. It's hard to believe the summer will be as cool as you are suggesting, so I won't trust it until I see this continue into June (if we do see it that long). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Alek does have a point, even the Euro has made PLENTY of mistakes a week ahead of time. Things can and will change by the run. I think the reality will be pretty close to the middle for next weeks system cutting west of us and moving to LAF. It's hard to believe the summer will be as cool as you are suggesting, so I won't trust it until I see this continue into June (if we do see it that long). Two days over 70 all spring thus far. That has to be close to a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Not necessarily true. A while before the last warm up, there was a 12Z run of the Euro that kept the GLs in an area of 850 temps in the single digits, which did not verify. When the EURO has shut down the warmth with a cold run this year, when has it came back? Name once. The trend has been when the EURO shuts down the warmth, it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Two days over 70 all spring thus far. That has to be close to a record. I'm hoping at least one of Saturday, Sunday or Monday will break that trend, and give us our first day with highs in the 70s in over half a year, but given the way this year has gone, it likely won't happen. We'll be covered with clouds due to the lake influence, have an outflow boundary sweep over the area from convection to the north, and stay in the 50s with rain. Ok, that's worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 OKC 90s or MI 40s? I'd prefer OKC 90's but I do like the potential for some interesting weather here Sunday, though it is still a ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 ...Did you catch the blueness of the sky yesterday, man that air was so clean and the sky reminded me of Colorado...nice day overall, sun helped a ton. Yeah it was like that today too. It was a pretty chilly start, but it warmed up really quickly. Had full sun all day, and reached 67. Felt warmer than that though with the sun and light winds. Fantastic day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I'm hoping at least one of Saturday, Sunday or Monday will break that trend, and give us our first day with highs in the 70s in over half a year, but given the way this year has gone, it likely won't happen. We'll be covered with clouds due to the lake influence, have an outflow boundary sweep over the area from convection to the north, and stay in the 50s with rain. Ok, that's worst case scenario. You've read my mind exactly. Screaming SE-E winds this weekend and mostly cloudy skies will likely keep us around 60F at best, while Watertown and west enjoy the warmth again. We might eek into the warm sector for about 6 hours between Sunday and Monday before our friend Mr. Backdoor pounds his way into our azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 This comparison to summer 2009 is a tad extreme..IMHO. Ill tell ya what..Ive seen 50s on Memorial Day followed by upper 90s by the 4th of July. Summer will come!! Relax! Really didn't mind summer 2009..with the exception that the cut-offs always wreaked the weekends and Mon-Thurs was insanely pleasant and beautiful. If we just so happen to repeat 2009 (long shot!!! Big time) lets pray the turd weather happens during the work week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 This comparison to summer 2009 is a tad extreme..IMHO. Ill tell ya what..Ive seen 50s on Memorial Day followed by upper 90s by the 4th of July. Summer will come!! Relax! Really didn't mind summer 2009..with the exception that the cut-offs always wreaked the weekends and Mon-Thurs was insanely pleasant and beautiful. If we just so happen to repeat 2009 (long shot!!! Big time) lets pray the turd weather happens during the work week! Now were getting deformation rain coming from the east. Ridiculous the paths rain is taking to get to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 he weather is being just brutal to the Tigers. Sundays game rained out, yesterdays game played with brisk wind and temps in the low 40s, and todays game rained out...now they head to Boston for two days with rain in their forecast both days On a better note, Bill Deedler, who retired from the DTX NWS after 37 years, has started a blog on weather in SE MI! http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 he weather is being just brutal to the Tigers. Sundays game rained out, yesterdays game played with brisk wind and temps in the low 40s, and todays game rained out...now they head to Boston for two days with rain in their forecast both days On a better note, Bill Deedler, who retired from the DTX NWS after 37 years, has started a blog on weather in SE MI! . http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/ Yea and I'm to blame for all the postponements. The other day i was saying to my friend how lucky the tigs gave been with the weather. I had tix to both postponements. Thnx for the link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 On a better note, Bill Deedler, who retired from the DTX NWS after 37 years, has started a blog on weather in SE MI! http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/ sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 he weather is being just brutal to the Tigers. Sundays game rained out, yesterdays game played with brisk wind and temps in the low 40s, and todays game rained out...now they head to Boston for two days with rain in their forecast both days On a better note, Bill Deedler, who retired from the DTX NWS after 37 years, has started a blog on weather in SE MI! http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/ Bill Deedler is the man!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 You've read my mind exactly. Screaming SE-E winds this weekend and mostly cloudy skies will likely keep us around 60F at best, while Watertown and west enjoy the warmth again. We might eek into the warm sector for about 6 hours between Sunday and Monday before our friend Mr. Backdoor pounds his way into our azz. Tbh, I was just repeating what happened last Wednesday when the high was supposed to get into the 70s, but clouds and drizzle took over due to the backdoor cold front that is known as an outflow boundary. I don't think there will be convection to our north so it probably won't happen like that again. If we can get sun we might bypass the 70s and get into the 80s, prolonging our days without highs in the 70s streak, but that is a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 For the northern Indiana folks, there is a new METAR site at Rensselaer. KRZL Speaking of METAR sites, we really need one in Woodstock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Tuesday, May 17th: Hi: 63F Lo: 39F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Clear Max Wind Gust: 14MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Speaking of METAR sites, we really need one in Woodstock. What software are you using for those station plots? Kind of looks like GRA2 type text graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 What software are you using for those station plots? Kind of looks like GRA2 type text graphics. The data is from Allisonhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 The data is from Allisonhouse. Ahh okay, that explains it. Looks pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Ahh okay, that explains it. Looks pretty sweet. It's a good package for $10/month ($110/year). I mostly use it for the METAR data while chasing/tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 It's a good package for $10/month ($110/year). I mostly use it for the METAR data while chasing/tracking. You get one free month? Haha, sorry couldn't resist. Yeah I may have to get that, looks pretty nice. Can't wait to get the F out chasing again. Been almost a MONTH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 You get one free month? Haha, sorry couldn't resist. Yeah I may have to get that, looks pretty nice. Can't wait to get the F out chasing again. Been almost a MONTH! "If it's free, it's for me." Other than the local stuff last week, my last big chase was mid-late April(Litchfield/Honey bend tor)...which may have been your last too. I have hope we'll be able to get out this weekend/early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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