weatherdude Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Houston has received only a TRACE of rainfall at Hobby Airport, and 0.11" at Intercontinental, in the month of April 2011, as of Noon on the 23rd. This is 2.47" below normal for the month to date, and is also on track for the driest in history if we don't see some more rainfall in the next week. Officially, Houston's driest April in history was .33" in 1937. I started this thread to see if anyone had any great thoughts/forecasts on this, or we could even make it a short term forecast contest. IF YOU HAVE AN OPINION it should post today (no fair waiting until next Saturday or Sunday!). So my fellow weather enthusiasts, will we make it or not? If I had my preference we'd see one of our 2" in an hour rains come along with one of our usual rogue thunderstorms, but that looks highly unlikely. I think we grab the record...... http://www.srh.noaa....e_iah_top10_apr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Even the Euro is losing the love for meaningful rain with the next series of troughs, and the GFS and NAM are just enough rain to allow dust to stick to windshields. It probably breaks before tropical season locally, once the storm track gets farther North, SW flow weakens in the 850 to 700 mb layer, and surface winds weaken enough for sea breeze formation. Thats hit and miss, but better than nothing. And when tropical season gets here, Dolly shows storms can miss by a ton and still produce rain locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Of course, sort of related to tropical season, if the mid level ridge axis gets far enough North, and flow over a broad layer is Easterly, there isn't much capping at all, and any weak little system from the East with a little enhanced moisture can enhance the sea breeze happiness. Thats about July. Ok, glas shalf full optimist, May 14th, first quarter inch or above rainfall at IAH, on the seabreeze/baybreeze merger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Interesting that the record was set in 1937. Huge flood in the Ohio valley that year in January and February and it looks like we might have the same situation in April and May this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 23, 2011 Share Posted April 23, 2011 Fort Bend County in SE TX is scheduled to be added to the burn ban map this coming week. If we do not get rain soon, and a soaking rain at that, manditory water rationing is likely just around the corner as our lake levels (other than Lake Livingston) continue to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It appears 0.11 inches will be the April precip total for IAH making April 2011 the driest on record for Houston. All of SE TX as well as much of the State of Texas are now under a burn ban except for NE TX where severe weather has been prevalent of late... http://www.weather.g...ate.php?wfo=hgx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shark Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 It looks like once the Western US warms-up (perhaps next week and deeper into May) the jet will move north toward Canada. That would allow the winds across TX to finally relax a little and we should start to see some sea breeze action near Houston. But I won't hold my breath for that to happen before the end of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 We got the record in the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Yup its in the bag! And the 0.11" will be it!! Hopefully the new month starts out wet and it looks like we have a good shot from all the models on the next front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Just looped the ensemble 700 mb winds and temps, and no sign of Easterly flow which might weaken/cool the cap enough for much seabreeze activity in the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 It's interesting that April precipitation in Texas has been trending down while the annual trend has been up. April Annual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 29, 2011 Share Posted April 29, 2011 It's interesting that April precipitation in Texas has been trending down while the annual trend has been up. April Annual That annual trend isn't much more than noise, IMHO, almost flat. That April trend, on the otherhand, that is a little interesting My May 15th date for better than a quarter inch may have been optimistic, but I am a glass half full guy, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 New record... CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 434 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 ................................... ...THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 30 2011... VALID TODAY AS OF 400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1892 TO 2011 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL .................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 88 1145 AM 92 1981 82 6 79 MINIMUM 72 1231 AM 42 1908 62 10 72 AVERAGE 80 72 8 76 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY T 3.20 1903 0.14 -0.14 0.02 MONTH TO DATE 0.11 3.60 -3.49 2.81 SINCE MAR 1 0.89 6.96 -6.07 4.69 SINCE JAN 1 6.63 13.62 -6.99 10.77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Meanwhile, Seattle had its wettest April on record, and Portland its third wettest. It's been a crappy, crappy spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexo Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Meanwhile, Seattle had its wettest April on record, and Portland its third wettest. It's been a crappy, crappy spring. we'll take that crappy spring thx ^__^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Somehow I suspect the elevated storms near I-20 don't get too much farther South than US 84 to US 190. And then after a few cool days, the joys of 90ºF highs, dewpoints around 70ºF and 700 mb temps in the upper 50s with plenty of dry air aloft will be back. No sign of 700 mb Easterlies in the GEFS means... Only 10 days away per GFS ensembles from 20% member agreement on a quarter inch in six hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 ^ I'll believe that when I see the rain falling from the sky... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 701 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011 ...APRIL 2011 WAS THE DRIEST ON RECORD FOR HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION... ...COLLEGE STATION REPORTS WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD... APRIL 2011 IS ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS. THE CITY OF HOUSTON... COLLEGE STATION AND HOUSTON HOBBY ALL RECORDED THEIR DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD. COLLEGE STATION AND HOBBY EACH RECORDED A TRACE OF RAIN DURING THE MONTH AND THE CITY OF HOUSTON RECORDED 0.11 INCHES. GALVESTON RECORDED 0.12 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH IS THE THIRD DRIEST APRIL ON RECORD. HERE ARE THE FIVE DRIEST APRILS ON RECORD FOR THE FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES: CITY OF HOUSTON COLLEGE GALVESTON HOUSTON HOBBY STATION 0.11 2011 T 2011 T 2011 0.00 1984 0.33 1937 0.06 1987 0.08 1984 0.01 1887 0.39 1920 0.16 1983 0.17 2003 0.12 2011 0.43 1983 0.36 1937 0.24 2001 0.19 1906 0.47 1987 0.46 2001 0.30 1944 0.24 1983 IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS. THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAS RECEIVED OVER 1.58 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST. HOBBY AIRPORT HAS ONLY RECEIVED 1.12 INCHES SINCE FEBRUARY 1 AND COLLEGE STATION HAS RECEIVED ONLY 1.30 INCHES. HERE ARE THE FIVE DRIEST FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL PERIODS ON RECORD FOR THE PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES: FEBRUARY...MARCH AND APRIL RAINFALL TOTALS CITY OF HOUSTON COLLEGE GALVESTON HOUSTON HOBBY STATION 1.58 - 2011 1.12 - 2011 1.27 - 1916 1.75 - 1916 2.28 - 1916 3.02 - 1996 1.30 - 2011 1.85 - 1925 3.43 - 1996 3.79 - 1954 2.83 - 1972 2.15 - 1981 3.90 - 1920 4.07 - 1963 3.02 - 1943 2.37 - 1939 3.95 - 1910 4.10 - 1989 3.45 - 1971 2.48 - 1953 3.49 - 2011 13TH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 We may have to add May to that list if the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Only 9 days away from about a tenth of the individual ensemble perturbations forecasting a quarter inch in six hours. Euro has some light/moderate showers Saturday down around Victoria, and again has some light showers about the time that some of the 0Z GFS ensemble members are predicting rain. No sign on the ensembles of the flow going Easterly at low to mid levels. Just too early in Spring for that, I guess. BTW, if you want to see dry and depressing rain free forecasts for two weeks in graphic form, may I recommend the wxmaps.org meteograms for Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Pathetic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Pathetic... MMMY 0.98" since Oct 1st, normal is 7.5"... Almost all fell in January, with traces in Oct and March. This makes it the driest 7 month period since 1947, with Jun-Sep 2010 being the wettest 4 month period on record... from feast to famine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 MMMY 0.98" since Oct 1st, normal is 7.5"... Almost all fell in January, with traces in Oct and March. This makes it the driest 7 month period since 1947, with Jun-Sep 2010 being the wettest 4 month period on record... from feast to famine. The drought in the Mexican states South of Texas, especially at elevation, are ruining the tornado chases for our friends in Nebraska. Dry ground makes hot and dry air for the cap. I still say, before true tropical season, the main jet, and associated howling Southeasterlies, will lift far enough North of Texas to allow isolated afternoon seabreeze action. Not that it helps the good people of Nuevo Leon, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 From HGX this afternoon: LOOKS LIKE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL RECEIVE SOME RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOBBY AIRPORT IS CURRENTLY AT 57 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN (LAST RAIN MARCH 14TH). IT HAS BEEN SO DRY THAT EVEN AN INCH OF RAIN WILL NOT CHANGE THE RECORDS. IT IS CURRENTLY THE DRIEST OCT 1 THROUGH MAY 11TH FOR COLLEGE STATION AND HOUSTON. COLLEGE STATION WILL NEED 2.93 INCHES OF RAIN TO MAKE THIS THE SECOND DRIEST OCT 1 THRU MAY 11TH AND HOUSTON WILL NEED 1.64 INCHES OF RAIN TO MAKE THIS THE SECOND DRIEST OCT 1 THRU MAY 11TH. SINCE FEB 1ST...CLL...IAH...HOU AND DANEVANG ARE THE DRIEST ON RECORD. IT WOULD TAKE 2.18 INCHES OF RAIN AT HOU TO MAKE THIS PERIOD THE 2ND DRIEST... 1.63 INCHES AT CLL...2.14 INCHES AT IAH AND 1.69 INCHES OF RAIN AT DANEVANG TO MAKE THESE LOCATION THE 2ND DRIEST FEB THROUGH MAY 11TH. NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST STRETCH OF WEATHER THIS AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Pathetic... Woop di do.... Wait til a hurricane comes that way and people are complaining about floods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Woop di do.... Wait til a hurricane comes that way and people are complaining about floods Enjoy your summer... RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TODAY`S MCS ENDED UP FAIRLY LIGHT. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF US 59 RECEIVED MOSTLY 1/2 TO 1 INCH TOTALS...WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING LESS THAN A 1/2 INCH EAST OF THAT LINE. A TOTAL OF 0.13 INCH WAS MEASURED AT HOBBY AIRPORT ENDING THE 58 DAY STREAK WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 HGX: SPRING 2011 (MARCH THROUGH MAY) WILL FINISH AS THE DRIEST SPRING OF ALL-TIME FOR HOUSTON...AND THE FIRST OR SECOND WARMEST SPRING ON RECORD AS WELL. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR AN INITIAL BRIEF SUMMARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 HGX: SPRING 2011 (MARCH THROUGH MAY) WILL FINISH AS THE DRIEST SPRING OF ALL-TIME FOR HOUSTON...AND THE FIRST OR SECOND WARMEST SPRING ON RECORD AS WELL. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR AN INITIAL BRIEF SUMMARY. Silver lining kind of guy, I think I'm seeing less fire ants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 7, 2011 Share Posted June 7, 2011 Truly sad... .CLIMATE...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS HAS BEEN A WELCOME SIGHT. HOWEVER...IT HAS DONE LITTLE TO HELP WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY AND FAIRLY LOW IN MOST AREAS. THE RECORD-SETTING DRY STREAKS CONTINUE AT OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES. HOUSTON/IAH - MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN: 1. 134 DAYS - AS OF 6/7/2011* 2. 93 DAYS - ENDING 2/13/2009 3. 84 DAYS - ENDING 11/18/1893 4. 82 DAYS - ENDING 1/26/1952 AND 2/8/1918 5. 81 DAYS - ENDING 5/17/1939 HOUSTON/HOBBY - MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN: 1. 85 DAYS - AS OF 6/7/2011* 2. 84 DAYS - ENDING 2/5/1971 3. 68 DAYS - ENDING 8/25/1956 4. 60 DAYS - ENDING 4/24/1960 5. 58 DAYS - ENDING 4/23/1953 GALVESTON - MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN: 1. 102 DAYS - ENDING 6/20/2008 2. 99 DAYS - ENDING 6/25/1906 3. 94 DAYS - AS OF 6/7/2011* 4. 89 DAYS - ENDING 4/26/1985 AND 3/31/1916 5. 82 DAYS - ENDING 8/9/1930 * STILL ONGOING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 RAINFALL DEFICITS BEGAN SHORTLY AFTER HURRICANE IKE IN 2008. SOUTHEAST TEXAS RAINFALL WAS BELOW NORMAL IN 2009 AND WELL BELOW NORMAL IN 2010. THIS DROUGHT HAS BEEN IN THE MAKING FOR SEVERAL YEARS. SITE NORMAL 2009 2010 2011 TOTAL DEPARTURE HOUSTON 47.84 47.01 42.72 7.07 -0.83 -5.12 -14.55 -20.50 HOU HOBBY 53.96 52.65 47.02 5.41 -1.34 -6.94 -17.11 -25.39 COL STATION 39.67 38.98 27.78 8.08 -0.69 -11.89 -10.88 -23.46 GALVESTON 43.84 37.16 33.14 7.84 -6.68 -10.70 -9.95 -27.33 THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HAVE BEEN INCREDIBLY DRY. SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST...THE CITY OF HOUSTON (IAH) HAS RECEIVED ONLY 2.02 INCHES OF RAIN...HOUSTON HOBBY (HOU) HAS RECEIVED 1.31 INCHES AND DANEVANG (WHARTON COUNTY) HAS ONLY RECEIVED 2.38 INCHES OF RAIN. THE TWO HOUSTON AIRPORTS ARE SO DRY THAT THE SECOND DRIEST PERIOD IS ALMOST 3.50 INCHES WETTER THAN THIS YEAR (THE DRIEST). GALVESTON HAS HAD TWICE THE RAIN AS HOBBY AIRPORT BUT MOST OF THE RAIN FELL ON JUST ONE DAY (MARCH 5TH) WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN ON THE ISLAND SINCE MARCH 5TH. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED A BIT IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY. COLLEGE STATION HAS RECEIVED 5.09 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST. THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT CONSIDERABLY BETTER THAN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH. THE RAINFALL DEFICIT IN HOUSTON SINCE JANUARY 1ST IS NOW 14.55 INCHES AND THE 2011 DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR HOBBY AIRPORT IS 17.11 INCHES. http://www.srh.noaa....ersion=0&max=61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I may cry. Will the long dry spell be finally broken...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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