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Driest April in Houston in 130 Years? Your Forecast?


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Houston has received only a TRACE of rainfall at Hobby Airport, and 0.11" at Intercontinental, in the month of April 2011, as of Noon on the 23rd. This is 2.47" below normal for the month to date, and is also on track for the driest in history if we don't see some more rainfall in the next week.

Officially, Houston's driest April in history was .33" in 1937.

I started this thread to see if anyone had any great thoughts/forecasts on this, or we could even make it a short term forecast contest.

IF YOU HAVE AN OPINION it should post today (no fair waiting until next Saturday or Sunday!).

So my fellow weather enthusiasts, will we make it or not? If I had my preference we'd see one of our 2" in an hour rains come along with one of our usual rogue thunderstorms, but that looks highly unlikely. I think we grab the record......

http://www.srh.noaa....e_iah_top10_apr

post-2744-0-58809600-1303578862.gif

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Even the Euro is losing the love for meaningful rain with the next series of troughs, and the GFS and NAM are just enough rain to allow dust to stick to windshields.

It probably breaks before tropical season locally, once the storm track gets farther North, SW flow weakens in the 850 to 700 mb layer, and surface winds weaken enough for sea breeze formation.

Thats hit and miss, but better than nothing.

And when tropical season gets here, Dolly shows storms can miss by a ton and still produce rain locally.

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Of course, sort of related to tropical season, if the mid level ridge axis gets far enough North, and flow over a broad layer is Easterly, there isn't much capping at all, and any weak little system from the East with a little enhanced moisture can enhance the sea breeze happiness. Thats about July.

Ok, glas shalf full optimist, May 14th, first quarter inch or above rainfall at IAH, on the seabreeze/baybreeze merger.

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Fort Bend County in SE TX is scheduled to be added to the burn ban map this coming week. If we do not get rain soon, and a soaking rain at that, manditory water rationing is likely just around the corner as our lake levels (other than Lake Livingston) continue to drop.

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It looks like once the Western US warms-up (perhaps next week and deeper into May) the jet will move north toward Canada.

That would allow the winds across TX to finally relax a little and we should start to see some sea breeze action near Houston.

But I won't hold my breath for that to happen before the end of April.

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It's interesting that April precipitation in Texas has been trending down while the annual trend has been up.

April

Annual

That annual trend isn't much more than noise, IMHO, almost flat. That April trend, on the otherhand, that is a little interesting

My May 15th date for better than a quarter inch may have been optimistic, but I am a glass half full guy,

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New record...

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
434 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011


...................................

...THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 30 2011...
VALID TODAY AS OF 400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1892 TO 2011


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
               VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                 NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
 MAXIMUM         88   1145 AM  92    1981  82      6       79
 MINIMUM         72   1231 AM  42    1908  62     10       72
 AVERAGE         80                        72      8       76

PRECIPITATION (IN)
 TODAY            T             3.20 1903   0.14  -0.14     0.02
 MONTH TO DATE    0.11                      3.60  -3.49     2.81
 SINCE MAR 1      0.89                      6.96  -6.07     4.69
 SINCE JAN 1      6.63                     13.62  -6.99    10.77

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Somehow I suspect the elevated storms near I-20 don't get too much farther South than US 84 to US 190.

And then after a few cool days, the joys of 90ºF highs, dewpoints around 70ºF and 700 mb temps in the upper 50s with plenty of dry air aloft will be back.

No sign of 700 mb Easterlies in the GEFS means...

Only 10 days away per GFS ensembles from 20% member agreement on a quarter inch in six hours...

post-138-0-86951400-1304338948.gif

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^

I'll believe that when I see the rain falling from the sky...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2011

        ...APRIL 2011 WAS THE DRIEST ON RECORD FOR
                HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION...

       ...COLLEGE STATION REPORTS WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD...

APRIL 2011 IS ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS. THE CITY OF HOUSTON...
COLLEGE STATION AND HOUSTON HOBBY ALL RECORDED THEIR DRIEST APRIL ON
RECORD. COLLEGE STATION AND HOBBY EACH RECORDED A TRACE OF RAIN
DURING THE MONTH AND THE CITY OF HOUSTON RECORDED 0.11 INCHES.
GALVESTON RECORDED 0.12 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH IS THE THIRD DRIEST
APRIL ON RECORD. HERE ARE THE FIVE DRIEST APRILS ON RECORD FOR THE
FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES:

     CITY OF      HOUSTON      COLLEGE        GALVESTON
     HOUSTON      HOBBY        STATION

     0.11 2011    T    2011    T    2011      0.00 1984
     0.33 1937    0.06 1987    0.08 1984      0.01 1887
     0.39 1920    0.16 1983    0.17 2003      0.12 2011
     0.43 1983    0.36 1937    0.24 2001      0.19 1906
     0.47 1987    0.46 2001    0.30 1944      0.24 1983

IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS. THE CITY OF
HOUSTON HAS RECEIVED OVER 1.58 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST.
HOBBY AIRPORT HAS ONLY RECEIVED 1.12 INCHES SINCE FEBRUARY 1 AND
COLLEGE STATION HAS RECEIVED ONLY 1.30 INCHES. HERE ARE THE FIVE
DRIEST FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL PERIODS ON RECORD FOR THE PRIMARY
CLIMATE SITES:

                   FEBRUARY...MARCH AND APRIL
                        RAINFALL TOTALS

      CITY OF      HOUSTON      COLLEGE        GALVESTON
      HOUSTON      HOBBY        STATION

   1.58 - 2011   1.12 - 2011    1.27 - 1916    1.75 - 1916
   2.28 - 1916   3.02 - 1996    1.30 - 2011    1.85 - 1925
   3.43 - 1996   3.79 - 1954    2.83 - 1972    2.15 - 1981
   3.90 - 1920   4.07 - 1963    3.02 - 1943    2.37 - 1939
   3.95 - 1910   4.10 - 1989    3.45 - 1971    2.48 - 1953

                                               3.49 - 2011 13TH

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Only 9 days away from about a tenth of the individual ensemble perturbations forecasting a quarter inch in six hours.

Euro has some light/moderate showers Saturday down around Victoria, and again has some light showers about the time that some of the 0Z GFS ensemble members are predicting rain.

No sign on the ensembles of the flow going Easterly at low to mid levels. Just too early in Spring for that, I guess.

BTW, if you want to see dry and depressing rain free forecasts for two weeks in graphic form, may I recommend the wxmaps.org meteograms for Houston.

post-138-0-04194200-1304516683.gif

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Pathetic...

MMMY 0.98" since Oct 1st, normal is 7.5"... Almost all fell in January, with traces in Oct and March. This makes it the driest 7 month period since 1947, with Jun-Sep 2010 being the wettest 4 month period on record... from feast to famine.

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MMMY 0.98" since Oct 1st, normal is 7.5"... Almost all fell in January, with traces in Oct and March. This makes it the driest 7 month period since 1947, with Jun-Sep 2010 being the wettest 4 month period on record... from feast to famine.

The drought in the Mexican states South of Texas, especially at elevation, are ruining the tornado chases for our friends in Nebraska. Dry ground makes hot and dry air for the cap.

I still say, before true tropical season, the main jet, and associated howling Southeasterlies, will lift far enough North of Texas to allow isolated afternoon seabreeze action.

Not that it helps the good people of Nuevo Leon, of course.

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From HGX this afternoon:

LOOKS LIKE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL RECEIVE SOME RAIN OVER THE

NEXT 24 HOURS. HOBBY AIRPORT IS CURRENTLY AT 57 CONSECUTIVE DAYS

WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAIN (LAST RAIN MARCH 14TH). IT HAS BEEN SO DRY

THAT EVEN AN INCH OF RAIN WILL NOT CHANGE THE RECORDS. IT IS

CURRENTLY THE DRIEST OCT 1 THROUGH MAY 11TH FOR COLLEGE STATION AND

HOUSTON. COLLEGE STATION WILL NEED 2.93 INCHES OF RAIN TO MAKE THIS

THE SECOND DRIEST OCT 1 THRU MAY 11TH AND HOUSTON WILL NEED 1.64

INCHES OF RAIN TO MAKE THIS THE SECOND DRIEST OCT 1 THRU MAY 11TH.

SINCE FEB 1ST...CLL...IAH...HOU AND DANEVANG ARE THE DRIEST ON RECORD.

IT WOULD TAKE 2.18 INCHES OF RAIN AT HOU TO MAKE THIS PERIOD THE 2ND

DRIEST... 1.63 INCHES AT CLL...2.14 INCHES AT IAH AND 1.69 INCHES OF

RAIN AT DANEVANG TO MAKE THESE LOCATION THE 2ND DRIEST FEB THROUGH

MAY 11TH. NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH RAIN SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST

STRETCH OF WEATHER THIS AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

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Woop di do.... Wait til a hurricane comes that way and people are complaining about floods

Enjoy your summer...

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TODAY`S MCS ENDED UP FAIRLY LIGHT. AREAS

NORTH AND WEST OF US 59 RECEIVED MOSTLY 1/2 TO 1 INCH

TOTALS...WITH AMOUNTS AVERAGING LESS THAN A 1/2 INCH EAST OF THAT

LINE. A TOTAL OF 0.13 INCH WAS MEASURED AT HOBBY AIRPORT ENDING

THE 58 DAY STREAK WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

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  • 3 weeks later...

HGX:

SPRING 2011 (MARCH THROUGH MAY) WILL FINISH AS THE DRIEST SPRING

OF ALL-TIME FOR HOUSTON...AND THE FIRST OR SECOND WARMEST SPRING

ON RECORD AS WELL. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR AN INITIAL BRIEF

SUMMARY.

Silver lining kind of guy, I think I'm seeing less fire ants.

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Truly sad...

.CLIMATE...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS HAS BEEN A

WELCOME SIGHT. HOWEVER...IT HAS DONE LITTLE TO HELP WITH THE

ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE SPOTTY AND FAIRLY

LOW IN MOST AREAS. THE RECORD-SETTING DRY STREAKS CONTINUE AT OUR

MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

HOUSTON/IAH - MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN:

1. 134 DAYS - AS OF 6/7/2011*

2. 93 DAYS - ENDING 2/13/2009

3. 84 DAYS - ENDING 11/18/1893

4. 82 DAYS - ENDING 1/26/1952 AND 2/8/1918

5. 81 DAYS - ENDING 5/17/1939

HOUSTON/HOBBY - MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN:

1. 85 DAYS - AS OF 6/7/2011*

2. 84 DAYS - ENDING 2/5/1971

3. 68 DAYS - ENDING 8/25/1956

4. 60 DAYS - ENDING 4/24/1960

5. 58 DAYS - ENDING 4/23/1953

GALVESTON - MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN:

1. 102 DAYS - ENDING 6/20/2008

2. 99 DAYS - ENDING 6/25/1906

3. 94 DAYS - AS OF 6/7/2011*

4. 89 DAYS - ENDING 4/26/1985 AND 3/31/1916

5. 82 DAYS - ENDING 8/9/1930

* STILL ONGOING

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  • 2 weeks later...

RAINFALL DEFICITS BEGAN SHORTLY AFTER HURRICANE IKE IN 2008.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RAINFALL WAS BELOW NORMAL IN 2009 AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN 2010. THIS DROUGHT HAS BEEN IN THE MAKING FOR SEVERAL
YEARS.

SITE           NORMAL     2009     2010     2011      TOTAL
                                                     DEPARTURE
HOUSTON        47.84      47.01    42.72    7.07
                         -0.83    -5.12  -14.55     -20.50

HOU HOBBY      53.96      52.65    47.02    5.41
                         -1.34    -6.94  -17.11     -25.39

COL STATION    39.67      38.98    27.78    8.08
                         -0.69   -11.89  -10.88     -23.46

GALVESTON      43.84      37.16    33.14    7.84
                         -6.68   -10.70   -9.95     -27.33

THE LAST FOUR MONTHS HAVE BEEN INCREDIBLY DRY. SINCE FEBRUARY
1ST...THE CITY OF HOUSTON (IAH) HAS RECEIVED ONLY 2.02 INCHES OF
RAIN...HOUSTON HOBBY (HOU) HAS RECEIVED 1.31 INCHES AND DANEVANG
(WHARTON COUNTY) HAS ONLY RECEIVED 2.38 INCHES OF RAIN. THE TWO
HOUSTON AIRPORTS ARE SO DRY THAT THE SECOND DRIEST PERIOD IS ALMOST
3.50 INCHES WETTER THAN THIS YEAR (THE DRIEST). GALVESTON HAS HAD
TWICE THE RAIN AS HOBBY AIRPORT BUT MOST OF THE RAIN FELL ON JUST
ONE DAY (MARCH 5TH) WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN ON THE ISLAND SINCE
MARCH 5TH. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED A BIT IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
COLLEGE STATION HAS RECEIVED 5.09 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FEBRUARY 1ST.
THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT CONSIDERABLY BETTER THAN
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH. THE RAINFALL DEFICIT IN HOUSTON SINCE
JANUARY 1ST IS NOW 14.55 INCHES AND THE 2011 DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
FOR HOBBY AIRPORT IS 17.11 INCHES.

http://www.srh.noaa....ersion=0&max=61

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