NaoPos Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 new meso up: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA...NJ...ERN PA...SERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 271955Z - 272100Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELMARVA...NJ...ERN PA AND SERN NY WILL POSE A MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT. WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS AIDING IN WARMING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DELMARVA N-NEWD INTO SERN NY. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VEERING WIND PROFILES...WHICH COULD AID IN BRIEF STORM ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT A WW ATTM. ..GARNER.. 04/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Perhaps another disappointment? MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA...NJ...ERN PA...SERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 271955Z - 272100Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELMARVA...NJ...ERN PA AND SERN NY WILL POSE A MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT. WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS AIDING IN WARMING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DELMARVA N-NEWD INTO SERN NY. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VEERING WIND PROFILES...WHICH COULD AID IN BRIEF STORM ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT A WW ATTM. The fact that there is even a meso discussion up into this area, is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 wow! debris ball arab was hit earlier today by tornado looks as if it'll miss just NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 wrong thread, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 2nd severe warning of the day coming Lee's way. He better not complain for a long time. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 443 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL KENT COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE... SOUTHEASTERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE... SOUTH CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... WEST CENTRAL GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... SALEM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 545 PM EDT * AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOODLAND BEACH...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETOWN... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... PORT PENN AROUND 500 PM EDT... HANCOCKS BRIDGE AROUND 505 PM EDT... SALEM AROUND 510 PM EDT... ALLOWAY AROUND 515 PM EDT... WOODSTOWN AROUND 530 PM EDT... BECKETT AROUND 540 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 2nd severe warning of the day coming Lee's way. He better not complain for a long time. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 443 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL KENT COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE... SOUTHEASTERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE... SOUTH CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... WEST CENTRAL GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... SALEM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 545 PM EDT * AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOODLAND BEACH...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETOWN... AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... PORT PENN AROUND 500 PM EDT... HANCOCKS BRIDGE AROUND 505 PM EDT... SALEM AROUND 510 PM EDT... ALLOWAY AROUND 515 PM EDT... WOODSTOWN AROUND 530 PM EDT... BECKETT AROUND 540 PM EDT... Its gonna slide east of me. I wasnt able to film earlier due to my location and lack of lightning where i was. But hopefully overnight into and through tomorrow i get trained on with loads of stuff to film lightning wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 So whats everyones thoughts for tonight and tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 cripes that storm's really falling apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 I think the storms will play out like they did last night. Upper Delaware valley and northward could see some strong or severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0550 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY...CNTRL/ERN PA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 236... VALID 272250Z - 272345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 236 CONTINUES. TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERSISTS WITHIN THIN QLCS STRETCHING FROM MONROE COUNTY NY TO BLAIR COUNTY PA AS OF 2240Z AND DISCRETE CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE IN CNTRL PA. DESPITE LINE ORIENTATION NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG WITH 0-1 KM SRH AOA 300 M2/S2 AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WITH UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENT DOWNSTREAM. IF TSTM ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN EXTENT OF THE WW...A NEW WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Everything in Maryland seems to be spinning up. Currently three separate TOR-warned couplets, although none too impressive. These storms will be entering the Philly metro after 9pm (probably closer to 10pm) and could be problematic if they hold together.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Everything in Maryland seems to be spinning up. Currently three separate TOR-warned couplets, although none too impressive. These storms will be entering the Philly metro after 9pm (probably closer to 10pm) and could be problematic if they hold together.... they are weakening rapidly as they are moving N/E towards Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watch till 4am for E PA and much of NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watch till 4am for E PA and much of NW NJ I'd like to know what i should expect. This is a wierd watch as everything that is heading towards Eastern Pa is dying hardcore. Someone throw me a bone here give me something to hold my hopes up. Not trying to b**ch, just want some sort of action something to film. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Just because some of that is weakening now, Lee, doesn't mean the storms to the S and SW won't make it into the area. Also storms are likely to redevelop in C PA and slide east into the LV and Poconos. The watch is till 4am. Wind/hail damage with a few tornadoes possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Just because some of that is weakening now, Lee, doesn't mean the storms to the S and SW won't make it into the area. Also storms are likely to redevelop in C PA and slide east into the LV and Poconos. The watch is till 4am. Wind/hail damage with a few tornadoes possible Yeah, lots of storms popped up in C PA last night and formed a line. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the same thing happened tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Yeah, lots of storms popped up in C PA last night and formed a line. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the same thing happened tonight. Would be nice if they were more east, just to shut me up for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Would be nice if they were more east, just to shut me up for a while. Yes that would be very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I'd like to know what i should expect. This is a wierd watch as everything that is heading towards Eastern Pa is dying hardcore. Someone throw me a bone here give me something to hold my hopes up. Not trying to b**ch, just want some sort of action something to film. Read the discussion, that will tell you what they think is going to happen. Sometimes you gotta actually read things, and learn. DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS OVER CNTRL PARTS OF NY/PA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE HUDSON/DE RIVER VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COMPARATIVELY MORE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. 00Z IAD/ALB SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...TO 1000-1200 J/KG OVER THE SOUTH. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF UPSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE OH VALLEY WITH ENVIRONMENT REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING AND SUPERCELL TYPE STRUCTURES. WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Yes that would be very nice! i have a hard time believing he would be quiet for more than 2 weeks...remember last year after the june 24th storm. I wont b**ch again this summer, that lasted less than a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 i have a hard time believing he would be quiet for more than 2 weeks...remember last year after the june 24th storm. I wont b**ch again this summer, that lasted less than a month I wasnt too-to bad come on now. LOL. I did calm down a goodbit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 So how is the outlook of witnessing a thunderstorm in lower bucks county/east Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 i have a hard time believing he would be quiet for more than 2 weeks...remember last year after the june 24th storm. I wont b**ch again this summer, that lasted less than a month I remember putting that quote in my sig. He said "the rest of this year" That didn't work too well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 I remember putting that quote in my sig. He said "the rest of this year" That didn't work too well... You gave me credit for doing pretty well after then till the end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 new spc outlook brings 10 percent tornado percent into york and lancaster...5 percent for the rest of the area from del riv west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 new spc outlook brings 10 percent tornado percent into york and lancaster...5 percent for the rest of the area from del riv west Shield. :Lee: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 sad thing is, lee is begging for storms, and places down south being hit with 3 tornados in 1 day, ef-5's ( tuscoloosa more than likely ef-5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 sad thing is, lee is begging for storms, and places down south being hit with 3 tornados in 1 day, ef-5's ( tuscoloosa more than likely ef-5) See am i wrong on wanting to have something to film and share with all of yous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 so far in the near term anything that pushes towards us will probably weaken. Shear looks eee, helicity eee, cape for this time of year is marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Severe watch out till 4AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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