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April 24-28 Severe/Warmth Thread


NaoPos

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We're not supposed to even get anything until Wedneday evening into Thursday. Unknown why you expected something already.

Really?

I could have swore i seen this area (east central PA) right on the border for 15% chance of wind and hail damage ...at the very least a 5 % and a 2 % chance of a tornado...

Granted these are all slight chances.. but tomorrow is no greater then a 15 % chance either....

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We're not supposed to even get anything until Wedneday evening into Thursday. Unknown why you expected something already.

The timing is less-than-ideal for I-95 and west since the front will be moving in Thursday midday. If the NAM is right and the front is after 2 PM we're golden around here. Looks like Mount holly in their afd is riding on an earlier frontal passage (GFSish).

The later the front, the better for Philly and west.

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We had three storms roll through Pittston this evening. The first one was the most intense-It hit around 10pm. We had a 62 mph wind gust reported at my tv station WNEP in Moosic. Also NWS Binghamton (who I commend for their severe coverage so far this season) reports trees on houses in the Back Mountain with 70 mph winds. 2 inch hail also fell in counties to my west and lots of flash flooding up north. A wild night. The 10 pm storm had lightning visible as soon as it got dark with the storms a good 50 miles to my west still....that was the best light show I have seen in quite some time.

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You know times are slow when the most exciting thing i've read in here was a c-c lightning strike.:lightning:

anyhow, current day 1 outlook:

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

day1otlk_1200.gif

Seems like spc is so swamped, i dont see any wording for PA/NY,MD...lol, can't blame them.

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mt. holly's thoughts about tomorrow:

THE BIG PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS THURSDAY...WHEN THE SLOW-MOVING

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO AND

THEN THROUGH OUR AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND IN THE EVENING. RAIN AND

SOME STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. SEE THE HYDROLOGY

SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY.

REGARDING WINDS, IT IS THOUGHT THAT ANY STRONG WINDS WILL BE IN

THE PROXIMITY OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...AND THUS WILL LIKELY BE

HANDLED BY CONVECTIVE PRODUCTS. SPC HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE AREA IN

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. RAINFALL MAY BE

THE BIGGER ISSUE THURSDAY THOUGH...AS SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED

CONVECTION MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS OR BE SOMEWHAT STEADY-

STATE FOR A TIME, SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW- MOVING.

ALSO...UPPER WINDS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIRECTIONAL CHANGE, SO

SHOWERS MAY TEND TO BE STEERED OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR A PERIOD OF

TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD EASE AWAY EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH CONTINUING

RUNOFF THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, WHICH MAY AFFECT THE LARGER

RIVERS BY THEN. ANOTHER BUT WEAKER SURFACE FRONT IS LIKELY TO

ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH,

BUT ANY ADDITIONAL EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL IN THE COOLER

AND LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

231 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PHILADELPHIA...

WEST CENTRAL BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAMDEN...

NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60

MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CHESTER...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST

OF WILMINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

GIBBSTOWN...PAULSBORO...SWARTHMORE AND NETHER PROVIDENCE TOWNSHIP

AROUND 235 PM EDT...

FOLCROFT...PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND WEST DEPTFORD

AROUND 240 PM EDT...

YEADON...SOUTH PHILADELPHIA AND EAST LANSDOWNE AROUND 245 PM EDT...

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not sure if you heard this.. but it related to this system in the conus:

Roy Oswalt leaves Philadelphia Phillies for personal reasons." He will be back. They aren't stating the obvious in this article about a tornado leveling his home town. He will be back, give him time.

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We may have a good shot at, at least garden variety stuff today, tons of storms moving NE at us from VA and such.

I knew something was up when I observed stratform rain this am. But yes, def good chances. sunw as out, very humid, cap broke.. here

s pic of that cellt that moved over philly. Im located in Upper Darby, so it just missed to our south and east:

some parameters... no wonder the cell took a hook shape for a few frames.

ALl favorable.. but forcing isnt too strong yet. but with storms approaching, let's see what we can squeeze out.

Mid lapse rates arent too favorable:

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Perhaps another disappointment?

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA...NJ...ERN PA...SERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 271955Z - 272100Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DELMARVA...NJ...ERN PA AND SERN NY WILL POSE A MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT. WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS AIDING IN WARMING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DELMARVA N-NEWD INTO SERN NY. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...AREA VWP/S AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VEERING WIND PROFILES...WHICH COULD AID IN BRIEF STORM ORGANIZATION AS ACTIVITY TRACKS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT A WW ATTM.

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