NaoPos Posted April 25, 2011 Author Share Posted April 25, 2011 We're gonna have to take each event day by day. The mesoscale convective nature of each event will have outcomes that will affect the next days synoptics. Latent heat release, low tracks, tropopausal dynamics. Can a mod change the name of the thread por favor? EDIT* for not being able to type on my iphone. Sorry for the horrible grammar. Thanks for the title change as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Can a mod change the name of the thread por favor? You should be able to change it. Go to your first post, Edit, Use Full Editor, and then change the heading and subheadings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 06z NAM putting some some nice EHI values near the frontal boundary in central PA... may have to come up for a visit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Thread title has been changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Don't count today out, especially I-476 and W. Wednesday looks great. Question is when do the storms come through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 81F with a dewpoint of 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 81F with a dewpoint of 62. Hi June/July/August, how are ya!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 That's nothing! 85.1°/63 here, already 0.5° down from the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 87 here. Me so happy!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 86.0° for the high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 The severe parameters are excellent today, much better than yesterday. Too bad there's really nothing to trigger any storms to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 The severe parameters are excellent today, much better than yesterday. Too bad there's really nothing to trigger any storms to develop. The atmosphere is capped somewhat today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Thursday looks to be the day if the models from midday are right...if the NAM/EURO are right (late afternoon front timing) the outbreak could be rather nasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 down almost 8 degrees in the last hour to 78.1° Wind from E and ESE as well. Did the seabreeze make it all the way to PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 down almost 8 degrees in the last hour to 78.1° Wind from E and ESE as well. Did the seabreeze make it all the way to PA? Yep...it's made it as far west as 611 in Montco and Tacony Creek in NE Philly per radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 oh hai there I was on KFWS all afternoon watching the tornadic stuff near Dallas and wasn't even paying attention to my own backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 Thursday looks to be the day if the models from midday are right...if the NAM/EURO are right (late afternoon front timing) the outbreak could be rather nasty... Please pray for Lee that the outbreak breaks his shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 oh hai there I was on KFWS all afternoon watching the tornadic stuff near Dallas and wasn't even paying attention to my own backyard. It's pulling in some fog and low clouds off the water as well. Was down to 57°F a couple hours ago at KBLM. METAR KBLM 252035Z AUTO 14008KT 1/2SM OVC002 14/13 A3001 RMK AO1 TSNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted April 25, 2011 Share Posted April 25, 2011 I was on KFWS all afternoon watching the tornadic stuff near Dallas and wasn't even paying attention to my own backyard. It seems that one's been hanging on for awhile... with a nice hook echo. About 40 mi south of Ft. Worth and Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 convection firing this evening and tonight in NEPA/Central PA... NWS bing sniffed this out earlier today but didn't give it much confidence. They have been pretty good with severe (or lack of) this season. HRRR ALSO IS SUGGESTIVE OF A SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND NORTHEASTERN PA TOWARD SUNSET, AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE, AND I DON`T SEE ANY UPSTREAM EVIDENCE OF THIS FORMATION. BUT WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON DEVELOPMENT AS WE DO HAVE PARAMETERS IN THE WARM SECTOR CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED SEVERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 hey lee, This one is for you....my weatherman at WNEP just said the squall line in Central PA racing my way has put out over 10,000 lightning strikes in the last hour. Now another warning for Sullivan/lycoming county for quarters from heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 hey lee, This one is for you....my weatherman at WNEP just said the squall line in Central PA racing my way has put out over 10,000 lightning strikes in the last hour. Now another warning for Sullivan/lycoming county for quarters from heaven. Now that would be epic if that were to happen here. Lets hope for thursday for me with this type of event with 10,000 strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 This has me interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 This has me interested. It should. Thursday looks to be a pretty nasty day as long as the timing on the front isn't the morning. FWIW, slight risk out for Thursday already. Wednesday there's one for 95 and west but the highest % of risk is over Western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 82 here at noon already. With the breeze, it feels like I'm in the Caribbean (minus the beach and the ocean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 A lot more cumulus than I would have expected for the amount of sinking air forecasted. Whether or not the cap breaks will be something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 yummy THURSDAY...A POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL DAY OF WIND/SCT SVR TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN RELATED HAZARDS. FORESEE A WIND ADVY...SPC WATCH/WARNING SITN AND POSSIBLE SHORT TERM FLOOD WATCH. DETAILS TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 yummy THURSDAY...A POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL DAY OF WIND/SCT SVR TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN RELATED HAZARDS. FORESEE A WIND ADVY...SPC WATCH/WARNING SITN AND POSSIBLE SHORT TERM FLOOD WATCH. DETAILS TBD. Might as well put the whole thing in. THURSDAY...A POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL DAY OF WIND/SCT SVR TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN RELATED HAZARDS. FORESEE A WIND ADVY...SPC WATCH/WARNING SITN AND POSSIBLE SHORT TERM FLOOD WATCH. DETAILS TBD. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS PARTIALLY THIN TO ALLOW RAPID WARMING WITHIN +15/+16C 850 TEMP REGIME SE PA EWD AND SWD WITH 1200J CAPE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN DEL/SNJ BY 16Z...PRESUMING THE CFP IN PHL IS STILL DELAYED TIL ABOUT 18Z. TEMPS SOAR IN THE MORNING ALONG AND E OF THE DEL. IF FASTER CFP...THEN GIVE MUCH LESS CONSIDERATION TO THE POSSIBILITIES BELOW. SVR: BEST CHC I95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD...ESP IN DEL/NJ. 09Z/26 SREF HAS A 30 POP FOR 1000J IN DEL 18Z THURSDAY. APPROX TIMING 16Z-20Z. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR (VERY VERY STRONG FOR LATE APRIL) SHOULD HELP ORGANIZE ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP...INTO SHORT BOWING NE RACING SEGMENTS. LOTS OF POTENTIAL FOR STRIPES OF DAMAGING WIND THURSDAY IN AND NEAR CONVECTION....EVEN WIND ADVY POTENTIAL. LOTS OF TIME TO BE SURE AND TRY TO GET IT RIGHT IN THE GRIDS. IF ANY WEAK MESO LOW DEVELOPS ON THE COOL FRONT...THE HELICITY SOARS JUST AHD OF IT. MEAN 0-6KM WIND IN 12Z/26 NAM SOUNDINGS IS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 KTS OUT OF ABOUT 210 DEGS. WIND ADVY POTENTIAL: POCS AND KITTATINNY IN THE MORNING FOR SLY FLOW AND THEN 15Z-20Z IN NJ/DEL ALONG AND E OF THE DEL RIVER FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 27KT ISOLATED G40KT. BL WIND ON THE 12/26 NAM IS ABOVE 30 KNOTS WITH TRANSFER GRAPHICS INDICATING 40-45 KTS SSW GUST POTENTIAL IN THE 16Z-21Z TIME FRAME JUST AHD OF THE CFP AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE WATERS WHICH IS BASICALLY KDOV-KBLM WESTWARD. WE`LL SEE IF THE GFS CONFIRMS AND IF SUCCESSIVE CYCLES CONTINUE THIS INTENSITY. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO TIMING OF CFP...HOW MUCH ML CAPE/HEATING AHD OF THE COOL FRONT AND WHETHER ANY WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ON THE COOL FRONT IN THE MID ATLC STATES. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALONE AND CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT MODELED SWI NEAR -2-3 WITH KI NEAR 34 AND TT 50-51 ALONG WITH THE VERY STRONG SWLY SHEAR HAVE MY INTEREST CUED FOR POCKETS OF SVR WX IN THE MID ATLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Its a real shame that we can not get some good severe out of this pattern...I know parts of PA and NY are but talking about east central PA into SE PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Its a real shame that we can not get some good severe out of this pattern...I know parts of PA and NY are but talking about east central PA into SE PA... We're not supposed to even get anything until Wedneday evening into Thursday. Unknown why you expected something already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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