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April 24-28 Severe/Warmth Thread


NaoPos

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Seems like a decent line is getting its act together from Chambersburg NE through Millersburg.. seems to really be congealing here in the last few frames.. nice cell racing NEward ahead of it NW of York

I'm not that much of a fan of line segments. Usually only discrete storms have hail - which is my favorite.

That said, a thunderstorm is a thunderstorm and it looks like we'll get some good ones tonight. Especially since the atmosphere around Harrisburg isn't as good as it is in the 5-county Philly metro. Those storms are aboyt to hit a pocket of higher SBCAPE values according to SPC Mesoanalysis, so let's see if they strengthen over Lancaster. I expect they will. EVen with the clouds in now, we're still plenty unstable.

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Nope, the shield will hold, you can't deny it. You should move away from Lee, only then will you get storms.

yeah. false hope it seems. we'll see. Lee is a white cloud so to speak... and now that cell headin to doylestown is starting to gain strength. hail sig coming up.

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:thumbsup:

Why even bother hoping? The season's already a bust. Haven't you heard? :arrowhead:

haha..OO YEA!.. i just heard tiremarks.. lee's haulin @$$ to chase that doylestown "storm":scooter:

We'll see how this goes. I can timagine them not spreading south as they hit higher instability and better shear.

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yeah. false hope it seems. we'll see. Lee is a white cloud so to speak... and now that cell headin to doylestown is starting to gain strength. hail sig coming up.

Nah man, no false hope, that came from the same person that said at the end of last week, no storms for the next 2 weeks, while there's a chance at storms almost every day this week. So take it with a grain of salt, lol.

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I'm not that much of a fan of line segments. Usually only discrete storms have hail - which is my favorite.

That said, a thunderstorm is a thunderstorm and it looks like we'll get some good ones tonight. Especially since the atmosphere around Harrisburg isn't as good as it is in the 5-county Philly metro. Those storms are aboyt to hit a pocket of higher SBCAPE values according to SPC Mesoanalysis, so let's see if they strengthen over Lancaster. I expect they will. EVen with the clouds in now, we're still plenty unstable.

I like the LI values...

post-611-0-19225200-1303681279.gif

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ehh, not liking radar trends for extreme SE PA.

seems like North and West of Philly will have the best chance.

Not ruling out storms, just nothing severe here. I thought that line would build south a bit.

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This meso discussion is exactly why "some" people need to calm down.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0510 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN VA...MUCH OF MD...DELMARVA PENINSULA...SRN

NJ...SERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195...

VALID 242210Z - 242315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195

CONTINUES.

SMALL MCS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA...WITH THE APEX MOVING INTO SRN NJ. A STRONGER CELL HAS

DEVELOPED ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE...WHICH LIKELY WILL HAVE THE

POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME SVR HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. CURRENT

EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE SHOULD HAVE IT MOVING OFFSHORE BTWN

2300-2330Z. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION

HAVE COOLED SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT SFC TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE

RECOVERING SOMEWHAT WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS. AN OUTFLOW

BOUNDARY /EVIDENT ON KLWX RADAR REFLECTIVITY/ CURRENTLY IS

POSITIONED E-W THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA.

MODERATELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL MAINTAIN AN

ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE MARGINAL IN THE

WAKE OF THE MCS DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION.

..ROGERS.. 04/24/2011

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Nothing here in Mt Laurel but dark skies to the south. Orange skies to the west. Looks like a heavy cell in cumberland and salem counties but probably not looking at anything here unless that stuff in Lancaster holds together. Do you think it'll actually make it here since the cloudcover for the last hour or so broke up the daytime heating and instability?

Update: Strong gusty winds here out of the south (20+ mph). Starting to rain now.

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Nothing here in Mt Laurel but dark skies to the south. Orange skies to the west. Looks like a heavy cell in cumberland and salem counties but probably not looking at anything here unless that stuff in Lancaster holds together. Do you think it'll actually make it here since the cloudcover for the last hour or so broke up the daytime heating and instability?

Update: Strong gusty winds here out of the south (20+ mph). Starting to rain now.

You guys do see the stuff in MD and VA moving NE now right? Severe warning in VA now too, sun out here, temp quickly rebounding.

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One lone cell in Lancaster County heading towards Delco its now into Chester County. We shall see if it holds, i might take a swing up to the Delco Branch of Penn State which has one hell of a view.

Well thats flat lining, time to figure out the next chance whenever that will be this sucks.

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