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Our first legit shot at some severe weather?


weatherwiz

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What sucks for today is were just not going to get enough breaks in the clouds to generate some decent sfc heating, that's all we really needed was some sfc heating b/c the marine layer would have easily been weakened here in northern CT.

While the storms will become more elevated in nature as they work eastward still a chance for a few severe gusts with such strong winds aloft. Storms could still rotate some as well enhancing the threat for some of these winds to be drawn down.

Despite the marine layer winds are still fairly gusty here and that's w/o the aid of convection.

I think it already is elevated wiz... that is an elevated looking radar if i have ever seen one

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A few hours ago there were two cracks of thunder in rapid succession, and then nothing. The radar echoes dissapated as they approached this section of Fairfield County.

My ligntning detector is strangely inactive given the furious-looking radar plot rumbling through NJ and Westchester right now. Maybe it's my detector, or maybe the storms are not as intense as the radar might imply.

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Sort of a question here... i know LI is 50mb agl related to parcel and temp etc etc.. couldnt the LI be sort of due to the temp diff in the front rather then srfce based instability?

Well the Lifted Index is basically taking the temperature difference of a parcel of air lifted adiabatically and the temperature of the environment at a given pressure height. I think the 500mb level is usually used the temp difference of the front really has nothing to do with the SB LI number. Basically the greater the difference between the sfc temp (or temp of the PBL) and 500mb temp the lower the LI will be.

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Sort of a question here... i know LI is 50mb agl related to parcel and temp etc etc.. couldnt the LI be sort of due to the temp diff in the front rather then srfce based instability?

You can have a (-) LI and still be very stable at the surface. In this case, you have elevated instability...likely due to a warm tongue aloft, and air rising from the level.

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/54/

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meh, the same thing can be said about our winter storms...there are parts of the country that get much more snow than we do here and get hit harder.

That's what I just said. Snowstorms, severe weather, anything. It's so meaningless in New England

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You can have a (-) LI and still be very stable at the surface. In this case, you have elevated instability...likely due to a warm tongue aloft, and air rising from the level.

http://www.theweathe...m/habyhints/54/

Yeah the LI value can sometimes not be a solid indicator of how unstable/stable the sfc is.

In today's case down across NW NJ/SE NY the LI value is right around -2C but there is meager sfc based instability (probably just enough to where it has kept these storms sfc based) but once they get to the CT border they will quickly become elevated.

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