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Our first legit shot at some severe weather?


weatherwiz

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This setup is already kaput for instability. However I have confidence in these storms possibly being maintained even to the CP. Support is there aloft in shear and the jet aloft plus lift associated with cold front. We need no trigger cause the storms are already going. Expect absolutely no singular cells, it will be a line of storms likely bow type with threat being high winds. Expect little to no hail and a couple svr warnings. High pwats likely yield quick 1-2" maybe in a spot.

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This setup is already kaput for instability. However I have confidence in these storms possibly being maintained even to the CP. Support is there aloft in shear and the jet aloft plus lift associated with cold front. We need no trigger cause the storms are already going. Expect absolutely no singular cells, it will be a line of storms likely bow type with threat being high winds. Expect little to no hail and a couple svr warnings. High pwats likely yield quick 1-2" maybe in a spot.

Thanks for the forecast

:facepalm::weenie:

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Too bad ML lapse rates aren't any better. The low levels are juiced along with helicity up around 500. Could've been good, but oh yeah, we're in New England

Yeah the existing convection from this morning out west released a latent heat which will weak mid level lapse rates through the day. If you overlay current lapse rates over the radar you can see the steeper lapse rates out east (seen in the 12z OKX and CHH soundings) while the areas closer to the convection ongoing have much weaker lapse rates.

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Yeah the existing convection from this morning out west released a latent heat which will weak mid level lapse rates through the day. If you overlay current lapse rates over the radar you can see the steeper lapse rates out east (seen in the 12z OKX and CHH soundings) while the areas closer to the convection ongoing have much weaker lapse rates.

Some of the models seem to want to generate convection over the waters south of LI where there is actually decent elevated instability. Not exactly confident on that, but with the better forcing approaching from the west..maybe it is possible??

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Pouring here now with a few rumbles of thunder, but nothing remarkable. 66/65 is pretty humid for April 28th. I'll be glad when this mugginess is gone.

Some of the models seem to want to generate convection over the waters south of LI where there is actually decent elevated instability. Not exactly confident on that, but with the better forcing approaching from the west..maybe it is possible??

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Some of the models seem to want to generate convection over the waters south of LI where there is actually decent elevated instability. Not exactly confident on that, but with the better forcing approaching from the west..maybe it is possible??

Areas west of BAF/BDL and especially along and west of the CT/NY border are starting to destabilize with some sfc based instability. Given the amount of shear it could be interesting later.

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Areas west of BAF/BDL and especially along and west of the CT/NY border are starting to destabilize with some sfc based instability. Given the amount of shear it could be interesting later.

We have partly cloudy skies in Andover and 75ish or so. Away from the marine influence of a south wind.

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What sucks for today is were just not going to get enough breaks in the clouds to generate some decent sfc heating, that's all we really needed was some sfc heating b/c the marine layer would have easily been weakened here in northern CT.

While the storms will become more elevated in nature as they work eastward still a chance for a few severe gusts with such strong winds aloft. Storms could still rotate some as well enhancing the threat for some of these winds to be drawn down.

Despite the marine layer winds are still fairly gusty here and that's w/o the aid of convection.

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