Collinsville Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 What an evening down south. damn, hook echoes all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 damn, hook echoes all over the place Just amazing. Complete awe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 These last couple of days that area has just been severe central. Awesome footage and scary Scott, what do you think the chances of thunder around here tonight are? I'm sick of gettng up at 4:00AM to unplug stuff like I have the last 2 nights. Should I just do it before I turn in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 101 tornado reports today, 3rd day this month with 100+ reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 101 tornado reports today, 3rd day this month with 100+ reports. Blizz FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 101 tornado reports today, 3rd day this month with 100+ reports. Wow, when do you see a NWS homepage look like this (time sensitive) Good luck to those folks down there. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Blizz FTL We may not see a month like this for a very, very long time. There is still a little less than 12 hours too in the day (remember SPC reports go from 12z-11:59z) and it's going to be highly active through the night so these numbers may just continue to jump even higher. I forgot what the two-day record is for tornadoes, but I think we might be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Wow, when do you see a NWS homepage look like this (time sensitive) Good luck to those folks down there. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/ Just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 SPC has a T-storm watch now for eastern NY URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 815 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE EASTERN MARYLAND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY EASTERN NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM UNTIL 400 AM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MASSENA NEW YORK TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF DOVER DELAWARE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Will these storms be like this when the system comes through the northeast tomorrow? Or is it going to be more just heavy rain? We could see some storms, especially in far western sections but they will not be anything close to what is going on across the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 These last couple of days that area has just been severe central. Awesome footage and scary Scott, what do you think the chances of thunder around here tonight are? I'm sick of gettng up at 4:00AM to unplug stuff like I have the last 2 nights. Should I just do it before I turn in? I haven't really looked all that much, but at first glance..probably not all that high. I suppose I wouldn't rule out renegade storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Just wow The footage from the Tuscaloosa storm is devastating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Supercell composite of 36 for sections of AL. Just sick numbers down there. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Tomorrow is going to be real interesting, if enough breaks of sun can occur (this is much more likely just off to our west) and temps can get higher than modeled than there will be an increased risk for severe wx just off to our west with damaging winds, large hail and a few isolated tornadoes. This is all highly dependent on the level of heating though. The threat could extend into extreme western CT and portions of MA/VT/NH as well but for CT at least a strong southerly flow may really limit the level of heating we see and will keep things much more stable. It will be interesting to see what happens though as the column is not fully 100% saturated, it's mainly the lowest 900mb that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Amazing day! Hit 80 in Plymouth!!! Outside all day Anyway, I'm speechless seeing some of the reports down south. Just incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Amazing day! Hit 80 in Plymouth!!! Outside all day Anyway, I'm speechless seeing some of the reports down south. Just incredible It may be a very long time before we see anything like this again. Just think April is not even the most active month However, just b/c April was this active doesn't really mean May will be, perhaps this pattern really relaxes by mid-May and the pattern blows after that. I don't think that will happen, I think May will be active but considering how active and historic April was May could be a "let down" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 It may be a very long time before we see anything like this again. Just think April is not even the most active month However, just b/c April was this active doesn't really mean May will be, perhaps this pattern really relaxes by mid-May and the pattern blows after that. I don't think that will happen, I think May will be active but considering how active and historic April was May could be a "let down" lol yeah well I think the south will be happy to have this out of their backyard. What's even more amazing is that this activity has been focused in the same areas with a number of these outbreaks. Anyway, I just hope we can have one solid outbreak in Oklahoma after May 23rd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 lol yeah well I think the south will be happy to have this out of their backyard. What's even more amazing is that this activity has been focused in the same areas with a number of these outbreaks. Anyway, I just hope we can have one solid outbreak in Oklahoma after May 23rd! Yeah it's been the same areas that have been pounded again and again and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Tomorrow is going to be real interesting, if enough breaks of sun can occur (this is much more likely just off to our west) and temps can get higher than modeled than there will be an increased risk for severe wx just off to our west with damaging winds, large hail and a few isolated tornadoes. This is all highly dependent on the level of heating though. The threat could extend into extreme western CT and portions of MA/VT/NH as well but for CT at least a strong southerly flow may really limit the level of heating we see and will keep things much more stable. It will be interesting to see what happens though as the column is not fully 100% saturated, it's mainly the lowest 900mb that is. It'll be interesting to see who is right between the GFS and NAM (or at least who is more accurate). NAM seems to dampen out any convection whereas the GFS hits us with a decent squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 It'll be interesting to see who is right between the GFS and NAM (or at least who is more accurate). NAM seems to dampen out any convection whereas the GFS hits us with a decent squall line. I think the GFS is going to be correct...radar looks pretty solid for NYC metro/SNE with some warned cells already past BGM. And it's already becoming quite windy here, so it wouldn't surprise me if a storm attained severe status in the area for winds at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Tornado warnings in NY right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Tornado warnings in NY right now DC and BWI under warnings... In terms of NY, that cell just south of BGM has looked pretty nasty so far. Atmosphere is pretty juiced, even we're at 60/60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Tornadic rotation just missing Ithica College to the south per Matt Noyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 DC and BWI under warnings... In terms of NY, that cell just south of BGM has looked pretty nasty so far. Atmosphere is pretty juiced, even we're at 60/60. ML lapse rates are quite steep across a large chunk of the east and there is a decent amount of low-level WAA occurring so despite the loss of daytime heating things have been able to remain unstable and even destabilize a bit more to some degree. Plus you add in the fact that dynamics aloft are through the roof and there is a good deal of upper-level support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 ML lapse rates are quite steep across a large chunk of the east and there is a decent amount of low-level WAA occurring so despite the loss of daytime heating things have been able to remain unstable and even destabilize a bit more to some degree. Plus you add in the fact that dynamics aloft are through the roof and there is a good deal of upper-level support. The entire squall line from SYR to the southern parts of West Virginia looks really solid right now. Tornado warnings up across the Appalachians with numerous roads already blocked further south in the range, and that line of warned storms seems to be extending to the northeast, although not as intensely. Don't see Ithaca under a warning too often, though that can be a tornado alley for the state, wish I were at the Poconos house right now. ITH-BGM has pretty good severe weather, much of it never makes the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 The entire squall line from SYR to the southern parts of West Virginia looks really solid right now. Tornado warnings up across the Appalachians with numerous roads already blocked further south in the range, and that line of warned storms seems to be extending to the northeast, although not as intensely. Don't see Ithaca under a warning too often, though that can be a tornado alley for the state, wish I were at the Poconos house right now. ITH-BGM has pretty good severe weather, much of it never makes the coast. One thing that is very intriguing to me right now is ML lapse rates seem to be underforecasted. Almost EML like along the east coast here...I don't recall the models showing this, even the 0z NAM didn't have this. I'm going to tweet Matt Noyes and see what he thinks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Supercell composite of 12 across parts of PA with sig tornado of 2 still...that's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 New Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 Much of central/eastern NY/PA and NJ may be upgraded to a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 It's amazing at how the atmosphere just continues to destabilize just off to our west. A very rich influx of warm/moist low-level air and theta-e along with steepening ML lapse rates are really making for a fairly unstable airmass. SBcapes up to 1500 J/KG, MLcapes up to 1500 J/KG, MUcapes nearing 1500 J/KG, LI values down to aorund -4C to -6C, Ncape values nearing 0.15, and some excellent shear and helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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