burrel2 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Good question about the euro maps. I use to use wow maps at Eastern but as eastern is that link is dead. Non paid sites folks. What is the best?? Plymouth weather comes out the fastest, but only goes to 168hrs. The fastest site that goes out to 240 hrs is the penn state model page; google "psu e wall." I always use Raleighwx's site for long range euro maps if i'm checking after his links have updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Good question about the euro maps. I use to use wow maps at Eastern but as eastern is that link is dead. Non paid sites folks. What is the best?? Hit 24 last night. Got to 43 today for a high and currently sitting at 34 @6:50 in the evening. Ive hit low-mid 20's several occasions already this fall and tonight barring any clouds, teens are a good bet for MBY. I sit in a perfect hole in the uwharries out in the middle of nowhere, so radiational cooling maximizes to it's fullest extent in my location. This month has the potential to set all time record December Cold, if the pattern holds days 15-31. We could be averaging -8 to -10 in the mean temp at PTI by December 10th ( 1/3 rd the way through the month). Obviously thie trend can reverse 360, but the cards are on the table and by halftime(December 15th) we should be able to see off enough into the future to see if this possibility has any bite with it's bark. Hopefully the NAO stays tanked all winter, like it has most of the past calendar year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 A weenie is like that over enthusiastic cheerleader who would always claim to be smart and perfect but ends up with 4 kids and dropping out of highschool. You left out... "and lives in a trailer, down by the river." Also, a Weenie is somoene who hangs onto every chance for snow and then complains when they get 3" instead of the 8" the GFS promised 48 hours before the event. Then constantly ask... "Allan or Robert... how much in my back yard??? Huh? Huh? How much can I promise my kids? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Good question about the euro maps. I use to use wow maps at Eastern but as eastern is that link is dead. Non paid sites folks. What is the best?? they're here http://www.americanwx.com/wow/ecmwf/ecmwf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 the GFS is very cold for the Southeast for a while, and continues with 2 more waves next week. Firs the clipper Sat/Sun then another dump of cold air around late Tues or Wednesday. It did really well last year inside 72 hours with the two big outbreaks here. The TV outlets and other wx sources had this area near 40 on both outbreaks for highs, whereas the GFS 2m temps had us at 32 or lower, and won out in both cases...so we'll see if this is another case of the GFS cold bias in the 3 to 5 day range, but I kind of doubt it is. Its a good set up , our best really to deliver the coldest air the piedmont region gets. On Monday it has 30 and less for highs near AVL to nw NC in the extreme nw foothills, and Tuesday morning lows 10 to 15 the northern mountains, and lower than 10 over a pretty big region on Wednesday morning in Ne Tn, w NC and southern WV...single digits . With snowpack by then, some high mountains valleys could get close to zero one night in ne Tn, w NC and of course points north. Mon through Wed could be hard pressed for areas north and west of a Greensboro to Gastonia line to even hit 40 at all, and thats with mostly sunshine. Probably staying near freezing for highs in Asheville. Currently , the lowest temp in our official fx is mid 20's, which we've already done 3 times now with thicknesses nowhere near whats coming with this outbreak, so I'm sure some teens are in my future. A very nice, cold advection pattern coming up for a long time...you gotta love those in December. By late next week, supposedly a tight 50/50 low is in place and a broad pacific trough coming at us with gulf tap, which would lead to a damming scenario. Taken literally on the Op runs of the GFS and Euro , it resembles the setup of the Dec 05 ice storm, but that most likely will change about. I hope it does, definitely not interested in ZR anymore. Suffice to say, the long awaited pattern change hailed by the models about 3 weeks ago is now complete. I think it holds on a while. We could still luck up with a snow fall before we switch back to west trough/ridge east. Thanks for the info Foothills. I'm like you and would pass on a zr event. Not much of a fan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Killer! I clicked not thinking before. Thanks Man. they're here http://www.americanw...cmwf/ecmwf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 A weenie is like that over enthusiastic cheerleader who would always claim to be smart and perfect but ends up with 4 kids and dropping out of highschool. Haha! Now THAT is funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 The GFS did pretty good in NC for last years 2 big cold outbreaks from inside 3 days, not certain about 4 days though. Its a really cold run tonight, time will tell if its overdoing things yet, but as it stands we could be heading into record cold for so early in the season the GFS looks a smidge colder for the Monday cold advection. It keeps strong cold advection through the day, so temps won't go anywhere Monday in NC, and very little in SC and GA. Now Shelby looks like it will barely reach freezing on Monday afternoon. If that happens, it would be pretty incredible for so early in December. Hickory and Asheville are a lock on this run to be less than Freezing it appears. By 00Z , -12 is most of westrn and central NC. I may have to dig up last years Jan and Feb outbreak to see what the coldest values were then, this is very impressive cold air. Just glanced a little closer and northern tier counties of GA are also subfreezing for high temps on Monday. Amazing cold shot for so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 ACC championship game kicks off in Charlotte around 8PM on Saturday Night...wouldnt it be awesome by some miracle to have some flakes from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 0z euro has 995 low in Western NC by day 10. Low actually gets going out in TX and slides east across TN into NC. Probably a CAD/ICE or cold rain on east side of apps. Sounds like euro weeklies from run to run have been keeping the negative nao going all the way through new year (next 4 weeks) and slightly more west based. Need the NAO to run the coup next 87 days and stay tanked. IF so lucky this will be a good winter IMO. If it shuts down and completely disappears till March then alot of bad winter forecast will be correct. I think well be great with nao being negative most if not all December and Feb-March. Hopefully January it wont relax and disappear for a long stretch. Morale of my post is there is hope,possibly lots of it this winter figuring the NAO has been negative for as long a stretch as I can remember. Of course I didn't know what it was until late 90's early 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 0z euro has 995 low in Western NC by day 10. Low actually gets going out in TX and slides east across TN into NC. Probably a CAD/ICE or cold rain on east side of apps. Sounds like euro weeklies from run to run have been keeping the negative nao going all the way through new year (next 4 weeks) and slightly more west based. Need the NAO to run the coup next 87 days and stay tanked. IF so lucky this will be a good winter IMO. If it shuts down and completely disappears till March then alot of bad winter forecast will be correct. I think well be great with nao being negative most if not all December and Feb-March. Hopefully January it wont relax and disappear for a long stretch. Morale of my post is there is hope,possibly lots of it this winter figuring the NAO has been negative for as long a stretch as I can remember. Of course I didn't know what it was until late 90's early 2000. Need the AO to stay negative too. The euro trended south from its 12z run which had a lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 No doubt, this is big-time cold next week. Thought I would post my 7-day I am going with on-air for the Triad today... **OK, couldn't make it a reasonable size...here is the link to the image.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Very cold here! 20 at 7 a.m..... I've noticed that my temp at Otter Creek matches the temp in Franklin, N.C., more times than not. It was 21 in Franklin at 7 a.m.. Strangely enough, it was 26 in Asheville, Rutherfordton, Morganton, and Boone at 7 a.m. This is the coldest here since February 3rd, when the ground was still covered with the snow of the late January storm. Here's another pic of the ice ribbons along my road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Looks good to me! attachment=2615:boone_forcast.png] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Ok. Since I am new to the board... I would like someone to tell me what in the world a 'weenie' is? Also, where is a good place to go for the Euro? I am with you guys though! That accuweather guy is pretty nervy for even mentioning the storms almost 2 weeks out. Though those storms look pretty darn impressive! A weenie is Dabo Swinney. Watch him cheer on the sidelines. More of a cheerleader than a coach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Looks like the only thing we're going to have to show for this cold air is a higher heat bill until at least the 15th. Hopefully, we'll have some real winter weather after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Accuweather has taken off all winter weather for my area (Athens, Ga) from Dec 11-15. Now just a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Very cold here! 20 at 7 a.m..... I've noticed that my temp at Otter Creek matches the temp in Franklin, N.C., more times than not. It was 21 in Franklin at 7 a.m.. Strangely enough, it was 26 in Asheville, Rutherfordton, Morganton, and Boone at 7 a.m. This is the coldest here since February 3rd, when the ground was still covered with the snow of the late January storm. Here's another pic of the ice ribbons along my road. That reporting station is down in a bowl surrounded by 4 to 5000ft peaks. It always is the coldest low. Its elevation is around 2200 ft. Its about ten miles northwest of Franklin. Notice how it never gets really windy in that spot when a cold front comes thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 No doubt, this is big-time cold next week. Thought I would post my 7-day I am going with on-air for the Triad today... **OK, couldn't make it a reasonable size...here is the link to the image.... I was just looking at the Jan 1-4 outbreak last year, and scrutinizing my notes. Found this :RECORD**** Went below freezing Friday night Jan 1, at 9PM and got above freezing Monday Jan 4 at 11AM...for 62 consecutive hours below freezing that was at my house and the Shelby airport I believe. As you can see on the reanalysis that had -15 air come into NC, so this one obviously not quite as bad , but -12 around here is no heat wave, and the overall setup is quite similar, So I'm going for highs Sunday through Wednesday of middle to upper 30's at Charlotte and Shelby to probably right near freezing around Asheville to Hickory to Greensboro. The models continue getting colder and the Euro is just as cold here. The more I think about it, this airmass is coming from our traditionally coldest way to get the Piedmont cold...almost Due North, as opposed to coming at us from the Plains or Midwest....coming across the Lakes usually sends MOS running for shelter, LOL. This could be the coldest outbreak this Winter for our area. Also, the clipper has some twists and turns to it...a surface low over the NC/SC border with even a closed 850 low a time while its west of the Apps. Could get interesting if there was to be a lee trough in NC Saturday afternoon, which there's hints of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 That reporting station is down in a bowl surrounded by 4 to 5000ft peaks. It always is the coldest low. Its elevation is around 2200 ft. Its about ten miles northwest of Franklin. Notice how it never gets really windy in that spot when a cold front comes thru. My elevation is only 1,200 feet, and the mountains surrounding me only go up to 3,100 feet. Must be some strange combination of the bowl effect and proximity to Mt. Mitchell (30 miles). I got over 7 inches of rain here on Monday, and areas just ten miles away got less than half of that. I have so much to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Robert, What are your thoughts on are storm chances next week? Do you buy the lakes cutter/ Apps runner the Euro is showing? Hare to see a storm cut to our west with that block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 My elevation is only 1,200 feet, and the mountains surrounding me only go up to 3,100 feet. Must be some strange combination of the bowl effect and proximity to Mt. Mitchell (30 miles). I got over 7 inches of rain here on Monday, and areas just ten miles away got less than half of that. I have so much to learn. I am higher than the airport reporting station here and they normally beat me in the low department. They are a little higher in the daytime highs. I think it is that bowl effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Robert, What are your thoughts on are storm chances next week? Do you buy the lakes cutter/ Apps runner the Euro is showing? Hare to see a storm cut to our west with that block. the sky's the limit when you get past Wednesday...I wouldn't touch it yet. Some semblance of a tight 50/50 in place on the models though with a general large trough or pacific warm advection trying to come at us. I'm sure the models don't have the right handle on that yet, so I wouldn't get too concerned with it yet. The overall theme is a reloading of cold air, and the -NAO is going to be tough to budge now that its in place. Kind of like how it took longer than expected to get the cold air in here, it will take longer than shown to get it out of here most likely. But we will have our big warm up coming, so enjoy this coldwave while we have it...it could be the coldest sustained period of the Winter. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 the sky's the limit when you get past Wednesday...I wouldn't touch it yet. Some semblance of a tight 50/50 in place on the models though with a general large trough or pacific warm advection trying to come at us. I'm sure the models don't have the right handle on that yet, so I wouldn't get too concerned with it yet. The overall theme is a reloading of cold air, and the -NAO is going to be tough to budge now that its in place. Kind of like how it took longer than expected to get the cold air in here, it will take longer than shown to get it out of here most likely. But we will have our big warm up coming, so enjoy this coldwave while we have it...it could be the coldest sustained period of the Winter. Who knows. That would be nice. I can't afford to keep refilling my heating oil tank every month or every other month. Seasonal weather would be ideal. What's with extremes this year? January-February was brutal cold. Then we have one of the hottest summers ever on record here, and now we are talking highs at or below 32 for this early in December? It's not out of the question, but it is quite rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Also, the clipper has some twists and turns to it...a surface low over the NC/SC border with even a closed 850 low a time while its west of the Apps. Could get interesting if there was to be a lee trough in NC Saturday afternoon, which there's hints of. I have posted some thoughts on my blog about the potential for wintry precipitation associated with the clipper this weekend, if anyone wants to give it a read. The Nam is obviously the most bullish, but some of the regional WRF models are really painting an interesting picture as well. For the Blog >>> http://blizzard.atms.unca.edu/~pppapin/local.html. Its also under my main page link below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 FWIW, the latest run of our in-house RPM (WRF based) is showing considerably less snow east of the mountains than its previous few runs had shown. I agree though, this one bears watching for at least a little trickiness at least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 FWIW, the latest run of our in-house RPM (WRF based) is showing considerably less snow east of the mountains than its previous few runs had shown. I agree though, this one bears watching for at least a little trickiness at least.... How much snow were previous runs showing? Taking a look at the 00z High-Res WRF run for the east showed quite a bit of precipitation spilling east of the WNC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 FWIW, the latest run of our in-house RPM (WRF based) is showing considerably less snow east of the mountains than its previous few runs had shown. I agree though, this one bears watching for at least a little trickiness at least.... It would be nice just to see some snow falling this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 It would be nice just to see some snow falling this time of year. Yes Brick, we kinda get that idea after hearing you say it everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Via Facebook Grandfather Mtn... We plan to open the lower half of the Mountain at 9:30 am. We got a dusting of snow last night and icy surfaces are an issue again today. Always interesting to follow. Heading to Sugar Mtn #2 tomorrow to get a few inches of the pow pow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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