BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks like the 12z Euro is bringing down the motherlode at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks like the 12z Euro is bringing down the motherlode at day 10. Of course it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks like there's -20 850's heading down through the upper midwest at day 10...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks like the 12z Euro is bringing down the motherlode at day 10. Notice how it's been trying to relax the -NAO every once in a while, but in the end it continues to show a fairly strong -NAO and progs cold temps. It's like when the models kept showing cold in the long range a month or so ago and it took so long to materialize-it looks like they're trying to rush the next warm up again. Either way, there's little question it's going to get pretty cold in the SE shortly. Only made it down to 28 today so that's still my low so far for the season...that looks to change next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Okay so trying to look at on the bright side here. With Mid-January like weather looking to come in next week it will do a terrific job getting the ground temps down low enough so when we do get a snow it will be much easier to get accumulations. If temps pan out like the Euro is showing we will have a lot of rock hard and cold soil around here soon. Then we can start watching the snow pile up one of these days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Thought ya'll might appreciate the power of rising ground ice this morning. The rock was lifted about three inches. We used to see this a lot around here. It's rare nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 There doesn't even look to be much cloud cover...other than maybe some high level cirrus. Don't think that will cut it lol sadly you are right. i think we got (or at least i know i did) spoiled last winter. pitiful, aren't we! yes, but at least now with the internet i know i am not the only one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The Euro has a pretty decent damming situation on its 240. But eh, you know now how the 10 day goes. It does want to keep the eastern block going with the 50/50 mostly in place and a big system forming in the southern plains or western Gulf by then. The 12z run looks pretty impressive. Very strong cad signature, even at 850mb, with favorable 850mb temps..even down below atlanta. I don't know how much precip it shows but these maps at least look pretty good. Unfortunately, it's a long ways off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The 12z run looks pretty impressive. Very strong cad signature, even at 850mb, with favorable 850mb temps..even down below atlanta. I don't know how much precip it shows but these maps at least look pretty good. i will say that the wedge this week was pretty good (imo) as the temps managed to drop a few degrees lower than progged and we had plenty of moisture. with last year's close calls, including the 32.2 and RAIN event, just a degree or two could make all the difference if we can get another CAD set up like the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 The 12z run looks pretty impressive. Very strong cad signature, even at 850mb, with favorable 850mb temps..even down below atlanta. I don't know how much precip it shows but these maps at least look pretty good. Unfortunately, it's a long ways off. At least with this run, the damming breaks down before the precip can get here, near as I can tell. It is a nice setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks like there's -20 850's heading down through the upper midwest at day 10...yikes. Just to expound on this a little....2M Temps across NW North Dakota and E Montana are at -15 at hour 240 with the 5º line close to Des Moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 i will say that the wedge this week was pretty good (imo) as the temps managed to drop a few degrees lower than progged and we had plenty of moisture. with last year's close calls, including the 32.2 and RAIN event, just a degree or two could make all the difference if we can get another CAD set up like the other day. Yeah, those bring back horrible memories What I find interesting about the 12z euro is even before the wedge sets up, a cold airmass is already in place. Those last few nightmarish wedges, the cold air was not really around before hand. We had only marginal temps/wetbulbs, even in the carolinas, and we know what that lead to. The 12z euro on the other hand, I would think, would imply a colder initial airmass everywhere and the source region is very cold. Even in the face of strong waa, with a setup like that, you would see the wedge hang on for quite a while imo. At least with this run, the damming breaks down before the precip can get here, near as I can tell. It is a nice setup though. Thanks. No worries though, for a day 8/9 prog I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This guy from AccuWeather says some big daddies are coming after mid month. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/42433/video-a-look-at-the-big-daddy-snowstorm-potential.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This guy from AccuWeather says some big daddies are coming after mid month. http://www.accuweath...m-potential.asp Old Henry sure likes to stir the weenies in the pot Dont he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Oh Henry sure likes to stir the weenies in the pot Dont he? yes he does!! Pretty bold prediction about the "Big Daddy"(s) considering its way out in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Oh lord here we go...those big daddy's for the 14th and 18th are definitely ridiculous...but we all know they'll disappear soon, surprised he even mentioned it. He must be a undercover weenie himself. This is good news, though...as it does show hope for the month of December if we miss out next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 He must be a undercover weenie himself. Undercover weenie YES............................. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This is the first day this season we have failed to reach 50F. I like to see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This guy from AccuWeather says some big daddies are coming after mid month. http://www.accuweath...m-potential.asp 18z GFS is gonna break Brick's heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ok. That one is classic... good job 18z GFS is gonna break Brick's heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ok. Since I am new to the board... I would like someone to tell me what in the world a 'weenie' is? Also, where is a good place to go for the Euro? I am with you guys though! That accuweather guy is pretty nervy for even mentioning the storms almost 2 weeks out. Though those storms look pretty darn impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 18Z shows a huge snowstorm for ATL-RDU That's why it's going to break his heart....it'll vanish at 00z . Seriously though it's close but verbatim probably to warm for anything west and south of AVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ok. Since I am new to the board... I would like someone to tell me what in the world a 'weenie' is? Also, where is a good place to go for the Euro? I am with you guys though! That accuweather guy is pretty nervy for even mentioning the storms almost 2 weeks out. Though those storms look pretty darn impressive! A weenie is like that over enthusiastic cheerleader who would always claim to be smart and perfect but ends up with 4 kids and dropping out of highschool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 December is taking pretty good shape temp wise, but I would be real slow to jump on any bandwagon that Henry is drivin". He is the author of the storm of "Biblical Proportions" for the SE & MA that never materialized a few years ago. I would stick with guys on this board. Maybe add James Spann from alabamawx.com if you live in georgia or points west. Henry tends to stretch the truth more than old men in a barbershop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 18Z shows a huge snowstorm for ATL-RDU More like rain to snow as the storm reforms off the NC coast so it can nail DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That's why it's going to break his heart....it'll vanish at 00z . Seriously though it's close but verbatim probably to warm for anything west and south of AVL. More like rain to snow as the storm reforms off the NC coast so it can nail DC. lol it doesn't show ****, just wanted to see if I could fool anyone. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 lol it doesn't show ****, just wanted to see if I could fool anyone. Sorry Actually it does at hour 192 and 204. sort of looks like the 12z Euro at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 the GFS is very cold for the Southeast for a while, and continues with 2 more waves next week. Firs the clipper Sat/Sun then another dump of cold air around late Tues or Wednesday. It did really well last year inside 72 hours with the two big outbreaks here. The TV outlets and other wx sources had this area near 40 on both outbreaks for highs, whereas the GFS 2m temps had us at 32 or lower, and won out in both cases...so we'll see if this is another case of the GFS cold bias in the 3 to 5 day range, but I kind of doubt it is. Its a good set up , our best really to deliver the coldest air the piedmont region gets. On Monday it has 30 and less for highs near AVL to nw NC in the extreme nw foothills, and Tuesday morning lows 10 to 15 the northern mountains, and lower than 10 over a pretty big region on Wednesday morning in Ne Tn, w NC and southern WV...single digits . With snowpack by then, some high mountains valleys could get close to zero one night in ne Tn, w NC and of course points north. Mon through Wed could be hard pressed for areas north and west of a Greensboro to Gastonia line to even hit 40 at all, and thats with mostly sunshine. Probably staying near freezing for highs in Asheville. Currently , the lowest temp in our official fx is mid 20's, which we've already done 3 times now with thicknesses nowhere near whats coming with this outbreak, so I'm sure some teens are in my future. A very nice, cold advection pattern coming up for a long time...you gotta love those in December. By late next week, supposedly a tight 50/50 low is in place and a broad pacific trough coming at us with gulf tap, which would lead to a damming scenario. Taken literally on the Op runs of the GFS and Euro , it resembles the setup of the Dec 05 ice storm, but that most likely will change about. I hope it does, definitely not interested in ZR anymore. Suffice to say, the long awaited pattern change hailed by the models about 3 weeks ago is now complete. I think it holds on a while. We could still luck up with a snow fall before we switch back to west trough/ridge east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Ok. Since I am new to the board... I would like someone to tell me what in the world a 'weenie' is? Also, where is a good place to go for the Euro? I am with you guys though! That accuweather guy is pretty nervy for even mentioning the storms almost 2 weeks out. Though those storms look pretty darn impressive! The Euro can be found here: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/index.php courtesy of Allan Hoffman. I've also gotten his permission to use his images on my site. I'm in the process of animating all of the model runs... it's going to take a LOT of time to get it done! Plus I'm going to make the menu structure mimic the update time. I never could remember what updated when, so if for no one else but me, the menu will be in that order! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Good question about the euro maps. I use to use wow maps at Eastern but as eastern is that link is dead. Non paid sites folks. What is the best?? Ok. Since I am new to the board... I would like someone to tell me what in the world a 'weenie' is? Also, where is a good place to go for the Euro? I am with you guys though! That accuweather guy is pretty nervy for even mentioning the storms almost 2 weeks out. Though those storms look pretty darn impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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